Looking for my next Forex trade
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UCAD Daily Chart
Finally made it to the Box 1 level but it broke a key trendline doing it.
Since it hit the major Box level 3 in yellow from the very beginning of this last move up that lasted for years, I fully believe the target is going to be 1.19 at Box level 1 in yellow near the bottom of the chart.
Should be lots of opportunities in between to get back in short though on bounces.
You can build confidence in the trading Qui but it's gonna take a ton of "face time".
When I was learning to read charts, I made up my mind to do whatever it took to figure it out. I didn't consider myself astute until I hit 10,000 hours of face time with charts (no, that's not an exaggeration). And even then, I was still learning new things all the time.
What you need to do is spend as much time as you can in the MT4 simulator watching the waves unfold where you can control the speed of the progression...speed up, slow down, and even pause time while you're learning to label the waves. I can't emphasize enough how valuable that can be.
If you have to skip sleep at night, do it...no excuses. The standard question my wife asked me for years was "are you coming to bed tonight?"...LOL! I would stay up all night until 2 or 3 in the morning, go to bed for just a few hours sleep, go to work, get home in the evening and start all over again. I did that all week long and would catch up on my sleep on the weekends. Late at night when everyone was in bed was the only time I could get enough peace and quiet to be able to focus.
Also, you need to really dig into historical charts on multiple time frames to see how the wave counts played out. It takes lots of practice.
Because a task seems overwhelming, as humans we tend to try to look at the whole thing at once and try to absorb it in a short period of time. But the fact is that it's gonna take time to be able to look at a chart one morning and say "Holy crap, I see it now...it's right in front of me."
How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time.
The trick is to get the count down pat. I still miss it sometimes especially if I let myself get wrapped up too much in the lower time frames and over-analyze the situation.
Price action is still important of course and I still watch it like a hawk and try to match up what I see on the wave count with the candles.
NU Daily Chart
Same aggravating minor 1-2 movement back up after the initial Wave 4 peak appeared. Slight new high, which is what it almost always does as a head fake.
Working on Wave 3 down now...and this isn't even the fun wave. Wave 4 is where it really kicks in.
New 61.8 target is sitting at 0.64424 so TP set for 0.6450.
Yep, that's true. Never trust anyone who charges for financial advice...ever! Not even your own 401k broker.
As long as you keep initial entries small and only add at obvious Wave 5 peaks along the way (remember the AU 5 minute chart I detailed the other day...adding when the chart hit a count of 5 paid off every time), then all you need to do is hold for the bigger picture.
What I like to do is have "flipper" positions and long term positions. I'll take flipper positions in and out along the way but there's always a "base" trade or two that I try to keep for the long haul.
Best of both worlds.
They must have taken a page from the Goldman Sachs manual...LOL!
Actually, I think the underlying problem is that they try to apply a basic set of old-fashioned tech support ideas to every situation. "New high signals bullish breakout, etc.".
The problem is every trading situation is different...it's dynamic. So our trading tools have to be dynamic as well. When the toolbox is fixed with no ability to compensate for fluidity in the market, it's no wonder the average win rate at most pro facilities rarely exceeds 50%.
Hard to tell right now, Qui. But the daily says it's going to drop to just above 0.69 during the next sequence down so there may not be much of a bounce to speak of until we get a definitive Wave 3 down completion. The wave 4 bounce will drive it back up some before the final plunge.
I know just what you mean, Heavy. I used to get faked out all the time on these back and forth swings. Now, I just focus mainly on the larger time frames and what they tell me. I still use the lower time frames for guidance but only as a reference...the larger time frames rule the roost on the wave counts.
I wonder what all of the bullish AU professional analysts are gonna make of this next move down...ROFL! I've read multiple articles talking about how attractive AU looked with the "breakouts" on the charts, new highs, etc.
Maybe I should start charging those brokers a fee to teach them how to read TDI waves...LOL!
Correct Heavy. This is what's going to drive EA up hard in the end. EU will base here and move up after this Wave 2 pullback. But AU is just building up an initial head of steam to the downside. So they'll move in opposite directions, which will drive EA even harder.
Honestly, there is a possibility that EA still moves back right to the highs. But I'll still bail at 1.58 below the 61.8 retrace of the move down just to be safe.
Why Trends Take So Long to Shift
This is what drives people crazy, Heavy. You've probably heard it as much as I have that tops and bottoms take a while to finish forming before they shift gears and head the other way.
This is why...Waves 1 and 2 will drive you totally bonkers. Take AU for example. The daily has been pointing to a Wave 4 peak for a while. But we had 2 series of 1-2 movements (1 larger and 1 minor) before AU could finally build up a head of steam to move into the larger Wave 3 movement. AU kept making slightly higher highs along the way and, if you're not looking closely, appears to be bullish...but it's a head fake.
Basically, you just have to be able to work your way past all of the 1-2 movements and wait for the larger move to begin. Once it does, all the waiting pays off in spades.
AU 4 Hour Chart as an Example...
Yep, that's right Heavy. We hit the trendline for the actual Wave 4 peak and then got the initial Wave 1 down and a Wave 2 back up with a double top on price. When the daily TDI turns down again on AU, it'll signal the larger sell off about to begin.
She'll get there...I trust the wave count on the AU daily.
Yep Heavy, once you get a Wave 5 top, a pullback, and a retest of the Wave 5 peak (a Wave 1 down and Wave 2 back up), it's pretty well dead.
Of course, this is the first move down...basically a large Wave 1 to the downside. At some point, we'll get a bounce back up for a large Wave 2 and then down again for a large Wave 3 and then back up for a large Wave 4...and then it really falls apart.
NU 30 Minute with Wave count...
It's not that it's totally irrelevant...it's just that the FE tool I used previously on the AU 15 minute isn't relevant. I thought originally we were working on an initial Wave 4 peak and Wave 5 down on the 4 hour chart, in which case the earlier 15 minute chart would have been fine.
Turns out that the 5 waves on the 4 hour chart had already completed so this move back up right near the highs was actually a Wave 2 up on the 4 hour chart. So the 15 minute chart scenario I had earlier is no longer on the table...it's going much, much lower.
That 15 minute chart is no longer relevant, Qui. We're basing the FE targets on the AU 4 hour chart since this move back up was a Wave 2 back up on the 4 hour chart. So we're basically seeing a new Wave 3 down begin on the 4 hour chart. The move down this morning is probably the first minor Wave 1 down out of 5 in the new 3rd wave down on the 4 hour chart. So a bounce back towards the highs again is likely before we see any large selling.
FE 61.8 based on the larger AU time frames is 0.69137 so I'm setting my TP at 0.6920. If AU does make one more final high though, we'll have to adjust that level a bit to compensate.
AU made a Class B divergence on the hourly chart...basically a double top with lower highs on the TDI indicator.
The odds for each type of divergence are as follows:
Class A is better than 50% that a top or bottom is in.
Class B is even at 50/50 odds that a top or bottom is in.
Class C is less than 50% chance that a top or bottom is in.
Morning Qui. There are 3 classes of divergence that appear on lower indicators.
The first is Class A. That's the normal positive and negative type of divergence on indicators you see all the time at tops and bottoms. For example, when price makes a higher high but the TDI makes a lower high, that would be normal Class A negative divergence.
The second type is Class B. That's where price makes a double top or double bottom with the negative or positive divergence on the indicator...not a higher high or a lower low on price, in other words.
The 3rd is Class C. That's where you have higher highs or lower lows in price but the indicator makes equal peaks instead of higher or lower peaks.
Class A is the strongest divergence, Class B is medium and Class C is the weakest.
NU Class C Divergence
I need to point this out because we don't see it that often. We have a final expanding diagonal pattern on NU which is very bearish. But there is still a possible move up to the trendline one last time before it tanks.
Class C divergence occurs with higher highs in price but the indicator remains at the same level, which it basically has for all 3 peaks at Waves 1, 3, and 5.
So we could see a 3rd bobble at the 5th wave peak that drives NU up one last time to touch the trendline before it falls apart.
Basically, the fib expansion tool is called into play once the TDI Wave 4 appears on the chart completed. But the fib extension can be used on any prior trend run.
Very good Jav! Yes, fib retrace is to see key levels along the retracement path, as the name suggests. Fib expansion is to "expand" beyond the current level to see where it's headed.
Excellent!
I have full confidence in the wave count....that's all we need.
Based on what I see now Jav, AU will top out around 0.7270 tonight or very early morning hours. Tomorrow during regular market hours should be an intense selling day for AU.
Yep, most likely Jav.
I think they'll track together Jav, neck in neck.
Added AU short at 0.7209.