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Thanks in advance 2Create.
A fax and confirmation would be nice to put this to rest once and for all.
Also a call to Gerald Parkin, the legal VP, could probably clear it up too. 514-591-3666
The o/s is 216 million shares. The 337 million figure is for bio-tracking before the r/s. Latest 10q:
>>>State the number of shares outstanding of each of the issuer's classes of common
equity, as of the latest practicable date 337,865,401 shares of common stock,
$0.001 par value, as of February 1, 2006.
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in
rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act). Yes |_| No |X|
<PAGE>
BIO TRACKING SECURITY, INC.<<<
NOT NORD OIL!!!
Later in the SAME 10Q:
>>>CHANGES IN SHARE CAPITAL
------------------------
At the time of this filing there are an estimated 214,913,920 shares outstanding
post the reverse stock split of 1 for 12 and the issuance of 180,000,000 shares
for the acquisition of Nord Oil (Russia).<<<
Everybody get it yet??!!!
Book value is different from appraised value. Accounting rules mandate that assets are carried at the LOWER of cost or present value.
IE: A co spends 100 mil and finds 100 million barrels of oil. The true value might be 1 billion plus but will show on the balance sheet as 100 mil of book value. Or...
A co spends 100 mil and finds 1 million barrels of oil appraised at 10 million dollars. They would take an impairment charge of 90 mil and show 10 mil of value on the balance sheet.
In this case, I think the Russians were issued 90 million shares of restricted stock at 1.00 per share. Therefore I expect the book value of reserves to be in a range of 90 to 110 mil. Not sure about the Krylon acquisition.
Another example, the PV10 (Future cash flows discounted for taxes and depletion) of an oil co. might be 10 times higher than the book value of the reserves, but will not show up on the balance sheet. You generally have to dig for that info.
Clear as mud?
NDOL did a dual listing (the other in Germany), because German investors are bigger buyers of Russian based asset co's than U.S. investors are.
Link to NDOL Frankfurt listing:
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060403/0120925.html
It wasn't any of my guys as far as I know. The highest any of them paid was .065 the other day. But that's good, because now they won't have any supply to put their foot on it.
I practically begged them to buy more when NDOL filed their latest report and shot up. But they are a very cautious (cheap) bunch of investors, not used to the dynamics of hot penny stocks.
Good luck to all,
Vic
Augie, I appreciate your comprehensive answer to my post.
When I saw the CC news this morning that promised to address reducing shares issued and outstanding, I loaded up a moderate amount.
IMO, the anticipation of the CC will vault the pps to .55+ by Thursdays close. I don't see .45 as much of a technical barrier at this point. Given the recent volume, the only serious resistance is the .645 spike of 6/27/05.
I will probably double up above .43 tomorrow if...
All imho, Vic
Abdallah and McCauley issued themselves 100 million shares of stock at .01 via a convert on 8/4/05. The pps the preceding 3 days was .60, .50, .43, and .40 on 8/4/05. Does that sound a little greedy to anyone else besides me?
Recent 13D filings of 2/15/06 and 3/1/06 show that 67 million shares are now convertible into free trading common. The other 33 million can convert in March 2007.
This is for informational purposes only for those that haven't seen the filings.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923771/000114420406008161/v035885.txt
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/923771/000114420406006473/v035884.txt
Here's a link to all of the filings:
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=universal+property&CIK=&filenum=&State=&...
Everyone that has held a winner for a few years knows that the majority of gains happen in a few days. Big jump and nothing for a while, another big jump and then nothing for a while. The trick is waiting for a high volume climax run. You'll know when it hits because you will be giddy with success. The big money is always made on the big move. Most people leave 50% or more laying on the table. Take a look at PTSC or GNOLF recently and tell me where you would have sold.
If you see AURC running up 20 to 50% a week for several weeks on volume equal to the entire float, that's when you'll know that you're close to a top. But not before then.
That price could approach $10+ a share before the smoke settles on a hot issue like this.
The fact is that there are 40mm shares that can convert at .0961. Period. They are restricted shares which buys time, but they are real nevertheless. If you owned conversion rights to 40 million shares at .095 would you renegotiate to worse terms?
From the 10K:
"At December 31, 2005, the Company has $3,844,000, carrying an
8% interest rate, of debt that is convertible into approximately 40 million
restricted common shares at the election of the debt-holder, a related
party."
3.844/40 = .0961
I like this company and the progress they have made. But the multiple converts is an alphabet soup of letters that need to be retired and make the financials cleaner and leaner.
Then the pps will really fly imho.
CPE Q1 and Q2 estimates posted over there for anyone interested.
Vic
Correction: Q2 guidance is 70 to 75 Mmcfe/d.
Q2/06 sneak peak:
Q2 was guided for oil to stay flat and gas to increase quite a bit. Total 70 to 75 mcfe/d.
Full Q2 estimated 500k bbls oil and 3.6 bcf gas.
Oil is now up to 180k bbls hedged with a $60 Nymex floor (and small swap, 45k, at 55). A note about NYMEX hedges. They are based on WTI prices and a 60 dollar floor effectively gives CPE a floor of 50 to 52 on their blends of oil.
Gas we lose our 900 mmcf hedged at 9.67 but pick up a new hedge of 2.1 bcf with a 8.00 floor.
If we keep q1 pricing for oil and use 7.00 mcf for unhedged gas we get:
500k bbls @ 53 = 26.5 mil
2.1 bcf gas @ 8 = 16.8 mil
1.5 bcf gas @ 7 = 10.5 mil
Total oil/gas sales = 54.8 mil
Operating expenses about 26.4 mil
Operating income approx 28.4 mil
Interest expense 4.2 mil
Pretax 24.2 mil
tax at 35% 8.5
Income before Medusa spar 15.7
Medusa spar net of tax .5
Net income 16.2 mil
Basic = .83 per share
Diluted = .76 per share
Note: this is considerably above analyst estimates of .37 to .61 with average of .50 (yahoo) to .52 (Zacks)
http://www.zacks.com/research/report.php?type=estimates&t=CPE
Q1 estimates that I also posted at Yahoo:
Estimated revenues based on the following factors: Oil a $10 bbl discount to NYMEX based on quality adjustments and transportation expenses. NYMEX WTI averaged about $63 in Q1. Oil hedges are a non event as they were mostly collared at 60/77 of NYMEX prices. A very small amount swapped at 55 will cost a minimal amount.
Gas averaged about 7.75 in Q1, and CPE had half hedged at 9.67 avg. (Yay, a good hedge for a change!)
Guidance was for 1.8 bcf gas and 490 to 520k bbls oil.
Calculations based on midpoint of guidance:
Hedged gas 900 mmcf@9.67=8.7 mil
Unhedged 900 mmcf @ 7.75=7.0 mil
505k bbls oil @ 53 = 26.5 mil (net of hedges)
Total oil/gas revenues = 42.2 mil
Lease expenses = 5.7
DD&A = 12.7
G&A = 2.0
Accretion = 1.0
Total operating expenses = 21.4 mil
Income from operations = 20.8 mil
Interest expense = 4.2
Income before income taxes = 16.6 mil
Income tax @ 35% = 5.8
income before Medusa Par LLC = 10.8 mil
Income from Medusa spar, net = .5
Net income = 11.3 mil
Per share Basic = .58
Per sahre Diluted = .53
Shares used in computing net income:
Basic = 19.4 million
Diluted = 21.3 million
Slightly higher than analyst estimates of .46 (yahoo) and .52 (Zacks).
Tell your friend thank you and ask him what his target is if he cares to share it. I have 6 to 9 month 7.50 to 9.00.
Nice to see someone step up and clean up the overhang at 4.40 this morning. That should clean up the "blind trust" stock for a while imo. Barring a complete meltdown in natgas prices, there shouldn't be a whole lot of resistance this side of 7 in the next few weeks imho.
If anyone wants to see the long term potential here, just research BSKO.ob and tell me what you find...
Told one more "gun" about aurc. Bidding will start at .055 for now. (.005 higher than before). They (& me) are not going to step up big until financials and updates are made available to us.
Sorry. Nothing personal, just business.
It's a mistake. They transposed the header on the last two 10Q's. Read them both and it is clear. The previous 10Q says 214.9 million shs and NORD OIL. The latest 10Q says 337.8 million shares and Bio Tracking.
That's the pre-split shares of Bio-Tracking, not the post split shares of NDOL.
Previous 10Q:
STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY:
Common stock, $.001 par value; authorized 500,000,000 shares;30,000,000 preferred issued
and outstanding 337,865,401 shares
Latest 10Q:
STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY:
Common stock, $.001 par value; authorized 500,000,000 shares;30,000,000 preferred issued
and outstanding 214,913,401 shares
I can assure you that the o/s didn't balloon 120 mil shares without a filing to explain why.
Look at page F-6 of that same 10Q-SB:
""CHANGES IN SHARE CAPITAL
------------------------
At the time of this filing there are an estimated 214,913,920 shares outstanding
post the reverse stock split of 1 for 12 and the issuance of 180,000,000 shares
for the acquisition of Nord Oil (Russia).""
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1073785/000114420406003579/v034369_10qsb.txt
2create: First and foremost is our honesty and integrity here. While I may only have 5% of my portfolio tied up here, there are others who have much more on the line here. It is not a game to them. It is our moral and fiduciary responsibility to them to keep it honest and open.
I well remember sweating bullets over my first few stock mkt purchases.
Because of the SEC filings Parkin has made on behalf of NDOL I have a good feeling about this here being on the up and up.
But still, Caveat Emptor, NEVER risk it all on one play unless you are 100% sure about it. (ala Warren Buffett with American Express way back when).
Vic
I found 316k more shs in the 10K, so only about 189k left to account for now.
""As of March 18, 1998, options to purchase 109,000 shares of Common
Stock remain outstanding under the Plan, of which no options have been exercised
and 91,000 shares remained available for grant thereunder.
(3) Includes warrants to purchase 162,500 shares of common stock.""
(4) Includes warrants to purchase 20,000 shares of Common Stock.
(5) Includes warrants to purchase 25,000 shares of common stock held by Gene
Schneider, General Partner of G. Schneider Holdings Co.
See pages 25 -27 of 10K:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1012627/0000950134-98-003013.txt
3.6 mln shs added to the o/s and the float. How many more "hidden" shares can we count on?
The shell that aurc took over via reverse merger was black rock golf (of killer bee driver/rocky thompson fame).
Their o/s at latest count was 3.1 million shares.
""Common Stock, $.001 Par Value -- 3,150,000 shares outstanding as of May 15, 1998
<PAGE> 2
Index
Black Rock Golf Corporation""
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1012627/0000950134-98-004461.txt
That's a 500k share discrepancy. Not a lot, but enough to demand an explanation.
Thanks for your good work.
Vic
Wang, that is your opinion. I like the share count here. It gives us a handle on our imminent control of the float imo.
It may be your opinion that it is unreliable and unverifiable, but my experience with meeting fellow posters in the past lead me to believe that they are more honest and accurate than you may think.
Vic
Snave59, #1 label your post OT (Off Topic) before you post another pick here. #2 tell us about these wonder stocks BEFORE they have just moved up 500%.
TIA,
Vic
Here's something interesting.
From previous release:
"The proven reserves are comprised of 5.2 million ounces of gold, 30 million ounces of silver, 65,468 tons of tin, 336,965 tons of zinc, 79,203 tons of lead and 17,730 tons of copper."
From Bloomberg today:
"Zinc for delivery in three months on the LME rose as much as $20, or 0.8 percent, to $2,490 a metric ton, beating the previous all-time high reached on March 17 by $5. The contract traded at $2,480 a ton as of 10:33 a.m. local time."
I don't know what the mining costs for zinc are, but at current prices that would equate into $835 million in future gross revenues FROM ZINC ALONE.
I called 2 guys and they are going to monitor aurc on their streamers and check it out. Loaded for bear at .05 and below in the meantime.
Vic
Dodge ball.
When I was an MM did I naked short stocks?
Yes.
When in the heat of trading 20 different stocks and handling millions of shares of order flow, it was quite common to short against the order flow without giving a lot of thought to it.
But, and this is important to understand, the firm who is backing your action will approach you with a BUY-IN notice if shares cannot be found to cover your short.
They typically give you 1 to 2 weeks to cover or have a FORCED buy-in.
That's right, they go in the open market and buy in your uncovered short and charge it to your account.
It happened to me on numerous occasions. I ALWAYS bought it in myself to avoid getting crucified by them. Sometimes with a 1 day or same day (cash) settlement.
Bottom line...the naked shorts have to cover at some point. That I can guarantee you. No firm is going to risk scandal and BK by NOT covering at crunch time.
Thus the game of "dodge-ball".
Benz,
A handful of millionaires could take total control of this stock with "fun money".
I know guys with 10 to 20 mil laying around that committing a couple hundred k to a play like this would be chump change.
I haven't called any of them yet for fear that they would ruin my action. (Actually I called just one who I am indebted to for giving me PTSC at .10)...
I am reluctant to call them because while they would halt the decline, they would also stifle the bounce.
But long run we're looking 1.00+ so I may pull that trigger soon.
Casinos make their money on tight games because of the risk of ruin for the average Joe vs the casino's deep pockets. With a known o/s we CAN be the casino.
Something to think about.
Vic
It's real simple. Those of us that can afford it just keep bidding exponentially every 1/2 cent down.
ie: I bought 20k more at .065, 30k at .06, 40k at .055 and 7k out of 50k so far at .05
I will buy 100k at .04 and 200k at .03 and 300k at .02 and 500k at .015 and 1 mln at .01.
If just a handful of us do that the supply will be completely soaked up and it is inevitable that the pps will rocket at some point.
The trick is, once the rebound has started 1) buy more to round out your position 2) walk away and DON'T BE TEMPTED TO SELL TOO SOON.
You are taking BIG RISKS and should settle for nothing less than BIG REWARDS.
You'll know when it's ok to get a little seed money back when the volume EXPANDS BIG on the UPSIDE. Be discreet when that happens.
And it WILL HAPPEN. I've been doing this for over 25 years and I know how the game is played.
NEVER sell more than 1/4 of your holdings on a double and 1/3 on a triple. Unless you don't want get the full benefit of the value here. Ever heard of a day trader that made a hundred million? Me neither.
JMHO from experience.
Best of luck to all,
Vic
Homer, you tell me and we'll both know, lol.
I'm in dumb mode right now. That is, I put gtc buys in down to 3.50, and will relook after the next 10q.
Good luck,
Vic
Bought a whopping 500 today at 4.25 even though thousands traded there. It gets frustrating trading ob's and pk's for that reason vs listed.
Listed you can trade much narrower spreads vs unlisted.
That's why your profit expectations have to be higher in unlisted securities imo.
Still another 4 to 6 weeks to go in buying season, so no need to get upset yet.
Pick your buy points at a discount to fair value on an exponential basis and vice versa.
ie: I will buy 8k aspn between 4 and 4.50, 16k between 3.50 and 4 and 24k between 3 and 3.50. Mortgage the house below 3 lol!
Always reserve the right to adjust that based on oil/NG prices, group trend, hit wells vs P&A's etc...
All imho and do your own DD.
Vic
re: OT/OMOG
This is what the buzz is about:
http://www.omogoil.com/omog28.pdf
OMOG is trading record volume today. Resistance at .0064. If it breaks that clear sailing to .01 imho.
Here is the website. Click on investor information to see updates.
http://www.omogoil.com/
If we're lucky, panic selling will drive the pps to 3.50/3.75 range.
But in case it doesn't I'm ready to double up anywhere between 4 and 5 in the next 4 to 6 weeks.
Short term pain for long term gain.
Again, all imho and best of luck to you,
Vic
Is this board still alive?
Triple whammy of weak natgas prices, insider selling and calpine receivables.
1. Shoulder season has 4 to 6 more weeks to run it's course.
2. Insider selling is a blind trust spread out over 3 to 6 months. (and not really that much stock).
3. Calpine rec'd 2 bil in bridge financing and will pay their bills. (they have to or get cut-off).
A perfect storm for buying.
3 out of 4 good wells or 1 good big well and 7.50 will happen so fast you won't know what hit you. 9.00 is very real by yearend.
Hedges were below mkt last qtr and are above mkt this qtr..eps will stay strong and pe ridiculously low.
North American assets and production will trade at a significant premium to the rest of the world in the forseeable future. (safety factor).
I'm buyin' large here and lower. 2 more qtrs and I think I'll be happy but that's just me.
All imho and best of health and luck to all,
Vic
Look at the language carefully.
Previous acquisition:
"The new investments will be targeted specifically at the Priargunsky and the Salairskiy properties where combined proven reserves are over 3 million ounces of gold."
Now the newest acquisition:
"The estimated gold and silver reserves in the Klyon deposit potentially make it our single most prized asset yet with over 1.9 million ounces of gold..."
The key word here is "single". The other gold reserves are spread out over more properties.
With a concentration of high grade ore on a single property, the economics of developing that property makes sense. Then the cash flow thrown off from that one can be used to further develop the others.
I would expect something on the order of 50 million shares restricted for 2 years to be issued to the principals of Klyon.
Financing will be farm-in of working interest on future production + possible asset backed debt. But no further share issuance.
All imho,
Vic
To the board...........................
I've never been comfortable with other posters emailing each other with info that may or may not be relevant to my investment there. As such I try to avoid that practice myself.
Certain OT topics are of relevance here, case in point being NDOL.
If the moderator decides to delete OT posts because they are too numerous and distracting that is fine by me.
But when kept to a modest amount and backed up by fact and well reasoned logic, I welcome them.
If just an ego contest and name calling..yes, please delete them.
Above all, let's all share all that we know or logically think.
Thank you all,
Vic
It's no big secret that gold and silver have always been considered a proxy for currency if not the actual currency itself.
If the dollar starts taking a hit for political reasons, a lot of savvy u.s. investors will be looking to hedge their u.s. dollars.
"LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The central bank governor of the United Arab Emirates suggested the country may switch up to 10% of its $22.5 billion in currency reserves into euros, in a sign of fallout from Congress' hostility to the acquisition of some U.S. ports by a Dubai-based firm.
The comments from UAE Central Bank Governor Sultan Bin Nasser Al Suwaidi didn't have a huge impact on the euro, which rose about 0.2% at $1.1925.
Though Al Suwaidi didn't link the forex move to Dubai Ports World's acquisition of Peninsular & Oriental Steam Navigation, the market interpreted the comments in that way.
"The talk has clarified just how damaging the rejection of Dubai Ports proposed takeover of U.S. ports from P&O could be. The failed Dubai Ports deal has further damaged the reputation of President Bush with his approval rate falling to historic levels," said currency analysts from BNP Paribas.
On Friday, trade talks between the U.S. and the UAE were postponed.
Dubai Ports World has decided to sell operations at some U.S. ports to a domestic "entity" in a bid to end a political firestorm, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John Warner said on the Senate floor Thursday afternoon. "
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2986D561%2D727A%2D4C8D%2DA088%2D6857CFFABDB...
OT/Wes, I never signed up for PM's and I apologize for the public response.
I hope we can agree to disagree.
Like you, I have a pretty good pile of cash on the sidelines waiting to strike at the opportune time.
AURC is my #1 target right now to make that happen.
Just monitoring the xau and price/volume of aurc in the meantime to pick an optimum attack point.
I'm thinking that .30 is the next small barrier to cross and that .50 is the next major barrier to get over. That is with no news. With good news, I may raise those parameters.
All near term and all imho,
Best to you,
Vic
OT/WES/PTGC......................................
Wes,
I don't find the ptgc options granted that untoward. It is common for mgmt to grant options at the current pps and vesting in 1 year or more. Even if 3.5 mln at .50 get exercised, that is 1.75 mil more cash and working capital for ptgc.
The rest of the options require a pps of 1.25 or greater to be exercisable. The last tranche of 8.5 mln at 2 require a pps of 4.00 and gross profit of 15 mil to be exercisable.
If they get the pps up to 4 I'm a happy camper!!!
Below 1.25 they are mostly anti-dilutive.
Many companies just give away free shares of restricted stock to mgmt. Not here.
As an investor, there is no way that we get the same options as mgmt. We are not running the day to day affairs of the co. to deserve the vested interest and performance incentives.
This has been a tough couple of weeks in the markets for energy, precious metals, and small cap stocks in general. Nerves are frazzled.
Usually a good buy indicator.
All imho and best of luck to you,
Vic