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The market is treating these two as twins. Happens in a lot of industries. Since they are the true leaders, they math in lockstep all things being equal.
As soon as Tru’s store count climbs into the 60s, they will separate from the standard MSO routine.
GTI is also facing a significant dilution of its shares.
Play for the long run since the day to day bounces will make you crazy.
Percentage of market share is most important followed by flower and then oils.
All three give you a real good feel for the dollar amount. Look at it this way. Market share means if $80 million is the monthly number for the state and your share is 52% you had pretty close to a 41-million month. The OMMU report gives you exact numbers to then tighten your revenue number. Since Tru consistently has 32% overhead numbers you get a good idea of gross minus grow for net profit before all the bullshit.
This quarter, if they can keep up the flower numbers, can reach 150-mill for the third quarter At that number Tru is worth over $3-billion
When you have flower you don’t buy oils
Remember this is Florida. We are flower consumers. It’s in our genes
Well thanks. I’ve been saying depth is more important than breadth for over a year.
To paraphrase an old political adage - It’s the profits, stupid.
Meaning no disrespect to our more sensitive souls
If Tru reports over 20K in flower again the week, the odds of a 150 quarter increase exponentially
Tru actually has 115,000,000 shares, but 62% of that number is vested in just a very small group of people. Our bet is they aren’t going to sell very much since the three big horses want to be the first real pot billionaires and that requires market value of over six billion.
So enjoy the ride.
Depends on at what price you purchased
Nickels and dimes is not a reason to sell, unless one shouldn’t have been in the stock in the first place
It’s a statistical fact that insiders often sell at the wrong times.
Never argue with facts.
Tru approaching 2.5 bil market value. It’s model trading range is between 2.4 and 3.1 billion
Have a great week
I rest my case.
Own your market
Onward
Lord what we do to keep each other safe from Wall St predators
Of course
It would save LHS as well.
Tru would be double what it is now
Yes. Production will all be in Gadsden until they wake up in Jefferson
Couldn’t agree more.
November cannot come soon enough
Jefferson is being constructed as we speak. It’s a series of nurseries over a fairly large acreage. They have also added two 24,000 sf nurseries in their Gadsden complex.
We all share that same feeling, but the problem of flower is in all competitors. Tru has the best when they have it, and it has been getting better on the supply front, but you have to move fast unfortunately
The Jefferson County grow complex will be coming on line by year’s end which will help immensely. But they still will need at least another 750,000 sf by the middle of 2021. It’s an agricultural business. When you view all their competitors you realize they just haven’t gotten the message yet. Depth equals profits. Ask any farmer.
You grow soybeans on 1000 acres. The revenue from half of it just covers your expenses, the rest is where you make your profits. You need lots of grow with 55 outlets. Look at LHS with 36 dispensaries and only 300,000 sf of grow. Ridiculous. No wonder their weekly numbers pale to Tru. And that’s a fact in every competitor in Florida. And grow facilities are expensive. When your capital spending is spread over a multitude of states, then you get the true nature of the problem.
And remember, Tru was founded and still owned by long time nurserymen. Not financial wizards.
Go to GTI’s web page under investors it’s all there. They have no positive earnings, Tru does.
They have no depth of market. Tru “owns” Florida.
Just for your knowledge, I’m a Tru bigot. I’ve also used Cannabis since Vietnam, live in Florida, and was a marketing guru in a Fortune 50 company most of my career. And an active long term investor for over 45 years. I do not trade.
US MSO’s, with the exception of TCNNF, are scattered shot all over with no outstanding market share in any state. What Tru, and common agricultural sense, will tell you is depth is more important when you grow your end product. You want to saturate a market to best control distribution and availability since that controls price.
When some other Cannabis company figures out the basics maybe they will be like Trulieve. My feeling is they won’t for quite a while. Meantime Tru is adding another 750,000 sf of grow as I type.
Nice catch.
Thanks.
All the kudos are wonderful.
In the meantime......
Lots of small buying at the end Friday. Going to be interesting starting Monday.
Although market value should be in the low 30s given Tru’s ability to show great numbers week after week.
In any case it’s a long term hold.
That is a ten million dollar plus week. Very nice. And this usually is a slower month.
Been a nice week for sure. But in reality the fun is just beginning. $40/share by years end. Going to have some down days but the trend is still going up
Using standard empirical evidence I put Trulieve’s market value at 3.5 billion. In a buyout situation it could fetch seven to eight billion easy
After extensive use of my regression analysis software, my computer agrees with me.
TCNNF should have a market value of $3.5-billion.
The stock is going to have a very nice run over the few months.
When Jefferson County comes on line, 750K of grow will help solve their stockouts. Hence the guidance upwards. It’s wonderful to own a company that’s good at math.
What? That’s what agricultural firms do. Remember they are growing every single day.
Getting to the NASDAQ can’t happen soon enough. 2021 is going to be one hell of a year, and Kim will become the face and voice of the entire Cannabis industry.
Only fitting.
Onward.
I have to add a caveat here. Growers who produce quality Cannabis in quantity will do exceptionally well. Regardless of distribution channels.
Not that large a deal. With over 2200 employees in the retail and production end where starting wages are low, it’s average.
Not a real problem
And that’s the secret to capitalism. Making money ??
One could say the same thing about Apple or Amazon
When you dominate a market you demand a premium. End of story
Completely agree. Back to accumulating
Just got back in at 19.35. I only sold 5% on Friday. Picked up a couple of grand from my Friday sale and am back at full up. Won’t do that again.
And any other state where politicians play the games of favorites.
Sooner or later, the rest of the industry is going to realize depth is more important than reach if you want to make profits.
Oh well, kids today.
The joys of being an MSO. And the more states you are in the worse it’s going to get.
And expensive. Oh my !!!
And where is that coming from? The lousy 600 a week. Most people have mortgages or rent payments that eat up all that including water sewer property taxes car insurance etc
Try to stay up with the rest of us and don’t spout BS political shit here
My crystal ball says we don’t slow down until $22.50 and if the quarter is anything like we expect $25 will be the new normal.
Finally took a position in C Labs today at the open.
Now do really dig into it. Stay tuned. I’m a curmudgeon sometimes
Love to see who is doing the accumulation of Tru stock. Volume buys everywhere
Scary, but I love the big bumps upward.
Hopefully never. Margins suck in wholesale. Besides they can sell every ounce they produce in their own retail outlets
And if you rip apart everyone’s numbers you can easily discern the advantage of grow your own.
Enjoy the ride. Thirty is very doable this year.