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Have no idea, but todays price spread (high/low) was the tightest for a month. Kind-a saying things cooling down with HFT. I am expecting things to return to normal once the "V" bottom first target is reached @ 1970.
When choosing TA indicators, one should keep Multicollinearity in mind. That means only use 1 indicator from each indicator group. Or you will be looking at several indicators telling you the same thing. Skewing you eval.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:multicollinearity
Also keep in mind some indicators zero in better on short term then long term. If your going to put the magnifying glass on a close up 3 month chart. You want to use indicators which correspond to a tighter daily action look.
3 month
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JCP&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p93417150077
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JCP&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p07149191438
6 month
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JCP&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p01029758656
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JCP&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p36544102006
I didn't really answer your question, did I.
Using my short term indicators. Entry/exit DMI and 5,10,20 MAs are mixed, but not really. 5,10,20 had an early entry signal with the cross of the 5 above the 10. But not confirmed entry, with the 10 day crossing the 20. This supports a bear flag. Things getting better, but not good enough to conceder the bear is dead. And the DMI has not given any entry signal at all. So the bear is still roaring.
Support indicator StockRSI just entered BE IN state, While CMF continues to show increasing negative buy pressure. Indicating a conflict which normally means accumulation. Often seen in the early stages of a bounce, before the pattern reverses to complete the pattern projection.
Watch the FIBs in something like this. You don't want to see a up run reverse before 68%. If you do bail. IMO
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JCP&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p93417150077
Again your using long term TA indicators to judge short term action. That's like looking threw a telescope backwards to see accurately. RSI and MacD are 6 month chart, mid to long term indicators for trend and momentum. Try DMI and StochRSI, on a 3 month chart. They present a closer, more detailed look.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JCP&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p93417150077
JCP (Penny's) was one I had high hopes for several months ago, like SHLD (Sears). Both failing retailers showing signs of turnaround, under new management. But both have failed to impress the investment community yet, getting support. I'd trade both on short term chart patterns alone. And forget any investment strategy for now.
Right now JCP is working on a bear flag. That's a small gap. Probable, but continuation less so. IMO. Not my cup of tea, and SHLD has just reached a double bottom target, more potential.
WOW all the right questions.
First I'll cover;
SPX update
I'm not so sure this will continue without continued HFT manipulation. We're looking at another "V" bottom chart. With less then outstanding technical's, for such a strong quick come back. The down fall saw TA support, but come back hasn't. The entry/exit indicators haven't confirmed entry yet and it's run back a hell of a way, without this confirmation. But hey, it's a manipulated "V" bottom to start. So makes sense indicators haven't caught up with price action.
Expect to see at least 1 more day of HFT, before come back reaches "V" bottom first target. Then if it's left up to retail, all the weak TA should kick in and prices could head for the gap fill below. Just don't see any investor phycology supporting a successful "V" bottom pattern continuation, in this chart. First target very possible, but continuation for complete pattern target no. IMO don't enter a "V" bottom trade till 38% FIBs line is crossed. Which hasn't happened yet. Because right now the short term pattern is a bear flag. Which hasn't failed yet.
"V" bottom video;
Was working on a S&P chart update when I went out to WAWA. But when I got back yours is more interesting. So here we go.
Very first thing that popped into my head, when I saw the chart was "that's a long sustained climb". Start by checking why investor phycology likes this one so much. Right off to Finviz to check fundamentals. I like to check investment of big guys for ownership, margins for management performance and short interest for retail "enough is enough" mindset.
Institutional buying +8% GOOD, Margins; gross 36% profit -18% BAD management, Shorts 1.5% GOOD don't expect reversal. So big guys like this one, even though management sucks and retail doesn't see a reversal due to high price yet. Or those who count for a long position, feels true value is still higher. And those are the guys which created the " long sustained climb". The ones to rely on in this case. IMO
Next I evaluate the long chart, to match the long phycology seen in a 3 month climber. There is a $2.00 target on a rounded bottom long term chart. My guess you'll see $2.00 before stall of true value being reached.
BUT we evaluate long, then trade short. As traders, not investors.
3 month trading chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ROX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p87342424872
In this chart the real break started the 16th with right lip of rounded bottom cross. {See long chart below} So we have 5 days, with day 2 a profit taking day, for sentiment traders. Note volumes. Both large. (break & profit day) Then it continued (investor support) and volume started to climb with price as needed for continuation.
This tells me traders are being overcome by investors. There are only 3 days green, since the profit taking day. So could see 2 more up days. Maybe more, if another profit taking day pops in. But I'm feeling investors are driving this one and probably to the long term chart target. Sooner then later.
Feelings mean squat when trading. So if one sees 5 days green and/or a large candle spike, finishing top of day or not. That's the signal to watch for red day exit. It say exhaustion and could happen tomorrow, with the recent 2 large candles. Take what one can get on red and watch for continuation to $2.00 target, for a re-entry 2nd play.
At any rate that's how I'd trade this. There is no short term pattern to trade. So hard to plan a short term play. In a case where your in without a plan, watch for exhaustion to exit. 5 days and/or high candle spike are 2 signals to watch. Don't need both, either will do, to exit on any red day which follows.
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Also want to mention your using long term TA indicators. Fine for a 6 month chart. But when one gets into a 3 month swing trading chart, you should choose short term TA indicators, like I use to swing trade from.
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long term chart;
Basic, simple, and clean. Expect 2 more days, but exit when exhaustion is seen, no matter when !
Just noticed. Where's your black car?
cool it's dropped.
Agree; words are not as reliable as action. Predictions as reliable as historical projections.
We'll see if retail agrees tomorrow.
But the chart action was telling the (in and out of box) stories. These were saying expect to take profits. And the days action agreed. Now for tomorrow. Re-enter, watch longer, or walk away. Decide after something happens. You don't need it all. Just a piece which meets needs.
IMO talking heads talk, stocks move. I prefer seeing what happens, over what might happen. That's why I always trade after, not before action. With this trading style I sometimes miss some, but rarely lose much. And having more gain then loss is what successful trading is all about. Not how big the on time gain or loss is. Everything adds up at the end of the year.
Here's an idea about a business plan. I used my personal plan as an example. Your plan should reflect your personal capital available to reach wants, needs, and goals.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=105989862
Ps; My FAS/FAZ trading the past month has put my results way above needed business goal, let alone wants and needs. So how the hell can I complain about HTF. I just don't like big guys screwing with little guys. I "do what the big guys do!" as a matter of experience. I also can see when the big guys manipulate. Many have gotten screwed big time especially the past 10 days. Because they don't see what I see. It's just not right. One can make a good living without this chit happening.
FAS/FAZ
week 1 7%
Week 2 9%
week 3 10%
week 4 7%
At 33% for the month and only needed 8%, wanted 10%, with goal 12.5% for a month.
HFT put a real boost to my big board years results. Then again I haven't been planning the trades and trading the plans as usual. Been day & swing trading S&P daily action, choosing FAS/FAZ with direction. Much more actual work involved. Expect this to end soon.
Also help me. I have no idea what this means.
There's another VERY important saying I post often.
Plan the trade and trade the plan.
That one thing is how I over came indecision and emotion. And thus increased my gain over all.
The plan was trade the single bottom bounce levels on that one. Should have had a entry before open at $2.00 resistance break and round trip sell at 2.70 next resistance. And just checked to see if it worked. For protection of a mistake one can use trailing stops 1/2 the gain expected, instead of market stops. And adjust as needed, based on what's seen in the daily action.
Cuts out lots of stress, having your orders placed before you ever enter. And knowing how much you'll make or lose before every trade made. This also helps greatly with planning you market trading business. Ranges of gain and loss can be plugged into business wants, needs, and goals to reach business success.
IMO a business plan is very important to over all success and trading plan more-so.
By the way !!!
Nov. 4th is closing and I hope you all vote!! And once All incumbents are voted out, for doing such a poor job. You contact you new representative; telling them to put pressure on the SEC to regulate high frequency trading at the stock market.
Change is in your hands. I'm so tired of hearing the masses crying about the poor service they receive by voting the same people back in office.
Thank you.
You don't make friend calling people names. Brilliant and Pompous used in negative condescending ways are words both of you should have left out of your posts. IMO.
Misused words cause conflict I'd rather not see here. Unless I use them. Lets keep things light! Your both important to the board. Both Brilliant and Pompous in your own ways.
Thanks. I'm the only true god. LOL And god thinks neither meant things said literally. Just feelings being bruised and re-bruised because of not thinking before posting.
VPCO future?
Want $2.00 support now to hold, to add comfort for continuation. Profit taking sentiment to slack and not become panic selling. So re-investment phycology comes back. The odds of a re-investment mind set reduces with each FIBs support line breached. If one wants continuation you need to see calm, not panic. Tighter the candle and less the volume, the better.
VPCO up date
Out of the box experience.
TIPs;
Most runs last 3 to 5 days.
Watch for exit signal on red day following high exhaustion candle.
In the box factual chart patterns;
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=107417725&txt2find=vpco
Runs stall at resistance levels on the way up a single bottom bounce play. Enter/exit/enter/exit on the way to top.
Using the above TIPs & charting, one should have been watching for and expecting today at VPCO. Increasing one's odds for a good exit point.
Today;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPCO&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p12966114514
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The more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it !
Should be out watching for 2.80 break entry, with large gap above acting as a magnet for continuation. Now is when you place a FIBs retracement overlay on it and use my Rule of Thumb to help with comfort on a flag continuation next. Not fall to starting price.
All this FREE stuff "yes" just went over my head.
I'm stuck in the basics. An offering to sell shares by a company is restricted to accredited investors. It implies eventual dilution. And can impact share price negatively on short term dilution sentiment. And can impact long term investments phycology positively, if cash raised does improve business growth.
I personally look at a public share offering as a reason to stay away.
While retail traders and investors make up their minds which is more important. Dilution or cash for growth. A strong management team is essential for a positive retail reaction to an offering announcement. As in that case, investors should be stronger then traders. But either way I'd stay away for a while.
PS; I'm thinking big boards here.
Thanks; the goal of the board is to present info readers can use within their individual trading style. To help increase one's odds for success.
Technical analysis and charting patterns can be used by all traders and investors. But investors need to dig deeper into fundamentals, financials, management performance and future pipe line info for success.
Knowledge (in and out of the box) is the base for all success. Just passing mine on. Some in the box, factual, some out of the box, experience. One can pick a choose to use, what ever helps them.
The reason I'm here is because the one main thing which has improved my life's happiness was having mentors. Mentorship is life changing. Happiness accentual. Passing it on satisfying. Basic, simple and clean. We all benefit by sharing.
A share offering is used by companies to sell stock to accredited investors. Accredited investors must have a net worth of at least one million dollars in the US. They can be wealthy individuals and organizations such as banks, insurance companies, some corporations, and retirement plans. A formal offering has a prospectus filing including info similar to a Q report for potential investors to evaluate company worth.
The word "Free" being used in the sentence makes me think your seeing this at message boards and it has nothing at all to do with a real share offering.
I was posting about that a few weeks ago. Something I noticed and am in the works of keeping an eye on. So far it's reliability hasn't been seen enough to post as a TIP or Rule of Thumb. I've seen some take 3 weeks and even 4, once in a while. But I have noticed a flat tight channel, after an emotion pop, often results in a strong price decline, way more then continuation. If continuation doesn't happen fairly soon after the pop.
Working on how long is seen the most. Looking like 2 1/2 weeks to 3 1/2. So 3 weeks may end up the TIP number. But 2 weeks seems the soonest and 4 the longest. I may use this range as a TIP. Need to watch it more.
"two week boredom theory" good name for it. Or just "The Boredom TIP" once I prove to myself it's not a theory any longer.
When trading any chart pattern, one needs to keep sentiment and phycology in mind. Sentiment is short term and if it continues long enough, phycology can change, thus continuing trend.
When you look at a chart break, you need to be thinking sentiment/phycology as time passes. Thus the longer the move, the bigger the odds for continuation on any free trading stock.
The prefect example of this is my Rule of Thumb about flags. "Flags normally come in 3's." Sentiment runs them, Logic takes profits and phycology continues the trend. When sentiment can't break top resistance after 3 flags, phycology forms a true value channel for a while. Patterns are just pictures of traders sentiment and investors phycology. Always remember people are behind price movement. Good chartists evaluate people and history more the lines on a chart alone. This is how to add comfort in chart projections reaching targets. Don't forget volume is a element of sentiment as much as direction.
Those charts having manipulation involved only change when the darkside is done playing with retail. On the OTC that's VC's and at the big boards HFTraders. Exhaustion candles usually indicated change in trend in those cases.
FIBs bounces are always possible in free trading stocks.
FIBs Rule of Thumb;
If bounce comes from 38% retracement expect previous high taken out, if from 50% expect previous high, from 68% expect 50% FIBs reached and from below 68% price should pop to 38% line.
I didn't really get involved with that, but when hot becomes cool it usually doesn't get hot again. I'd be more interested in the chart patterns, then possibility of pump & dumps. Because if Elvis leaves the building, the only ones around after, are die hard fans. And fans can get excited. So I'd plan on trading any chart pattern in these stocks. HEMP's chart is 100% free trading (seen in the flat volume with excitement pops) and as usual "at the OTC" over reacted to a normal retail chart pattern break. IMO
Fans can get exuberant.
The more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it !
The end of Sept I had NBRI on weekly watch again. But removed it as the expected bottom didn't form. Could now be forming at '0005, as the volume spikes indicate some accumulation. Problem is, we don't know for sure that accumulation is bottom fishers or VC's and friends. Or if it's a real bottom at all.
Since the darkside let the price enter triple zero again, I'm not so positive the darkside is involved there. But that gap above from .001 to .0014 will probably get filled either way. Bottom fishers or VC's. So The play would be buy .001 and sell .0015. Then trade the single bottom bounce, if it continues.
Trade at your own risk.
Weirdest price action I remember seeing. No comment because it make no sense.
Humm our friend asked me to Google gaps. And finally found some research proving 90% of common gaps fill. Before I would post that's my rule, due to experience. But it could be more or less?
Someone studied 24 years of Dow Jones data and found;
http://bioequity.org/2013/11/13/statistics-do-stock-price-gaps-always-get-filled/
You got that;
Indexes are made up of the cream stocks. So HFT houses trade index members, causing the indexes to move. Your guys are probably not on the attack list, as they are probably not index stocks. This is my analysis as to what happens with indexes. Others may disagree and say index trading causes the action. It's a which came first thing, the chicken or the egg. I say the egg. LOL But those stocks not on indexes are more likely to trade more freely then those that are. (less all boats, more present sentiment driven)
All indexes considered, the Russell 2000 should be the best to trade right now. It had it's 10% correction, is small cap, (larger gains) and individual stocks are not cream. So what's traded there (the action) should be retail backed, not HFT backed, on strong overall market sentiment. Basically saying the one's which move first, are probably the ones retail are hottest behind. (longest over due in their minds)
In the list I just posted, 6 of the 20 are hot, the others may follow if the market continues it's volatility. But hot ones will probably remain hotter then most. As retail change in sentiment is strongest there. And sentiment eventually changes phycology. So investment growth of a down trend bounce continues the new trend.
Just trying to use some logic, in an illogical time. The Russell come back was expected the most, of all indexes and the first movers, probably have the best odds for continuation.
If anyone decides to try those 6. Remember the single bottom bounce video and trade accordingly.
Trade at your own risk, as always.
While HFT houses are playing with the market. Here's your trading & strong watch list again. Those not trading FAS/FAZ can make some nice gain at any of these for a few days, probably.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=107283432
Of the list, these were best;
FREE 30%
VPCO 25%
FST 40%
SARA 13%
HK 10%
MPO 17%
Now on to more important things. What the hell is happening at the markets. LOL I was watching some talking heads on CNBC today and not one mentioned High Freq. Trading. They all said what's different now, from last week !!!!! But HFT never entered one conversation.
Scary the so called knowledgeable, won't tread on big monies toes. CNBC was like the bull, not seeing the red cape. Or afraid of the sword behind it. So they just stand there, without charging, asking why?
Algorithms, front trading the market is why markets can have huge moves for no logical reason. Basic, simple and clean!
Contact you congressional representatives to force the SEC to regulate this big money advantage close to "out of existence", just like naked shorting was on the OTC.
Ps; FAS +5.4% banked today, that's over 7% this week already. F (ford) went no where basically. Trading houses didn't attack them.
Oh yea all OTC watch stocks have been removed from watch except SIAF.
You win. Good bye.
Sorry Your Alpha male emotion is controlling your posting fingers. But there are years of history involved with TA & charting. It's not always correct. But trading historical action increases ones odds for successful trading.
Again good luck. Right now TA & charts are not agreeing with you. So again I hope luck, not logic, is with you. I don't want anyone to lose money.
Hate to break it to you. But they are gaps. And 90% of common gaps do fill. Granted those gaps shown are very small. Hope your correct and you guys holding FNMA bags get out of the hole sooner then later. Buy historically island reversal patterns take months, not weeks to fill the first runaway gap. Good luck.
By the way, if your a BBand trader; the Middle Bollinger band is called the 20 day moving average. And when trading trend, using the BBands, the cross of the 20 MA is usually a signal of possible reversal. As during trend price normally bounces between the 20 day and trend direction band. Upper or lower. Up trend /Down trend. It's only during non trending price a cross leans toward cross direction.
You have a flag pattern on your side. Gaps & BBands aren't though.
The BBand being in a down trend, a cross indicates reversal back down. Keeping the price between the 20 day and lower band line.
Looking at F (ford) the S&P 2 days pop should be over. FAZ tomorrow. We'll see. 2% @ FAS today.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=F&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p15058442281
Heads up on SIAF again.
For flag break, on increasing volume.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIAF&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p33645900541
Retail Profits have been taken the past 7 days.
So brokers & broker/dealers get free access to OTC Markets trading systems and still charge clients unequal round trip, added exchange closing fees? Who pays DAD's? Do companies pay DAD's to rate their company worthiness for top tier by paying for it.
If so; sounds big boards, This is becoming more rigged then before, when there was the Over the counter market, Bulletin Board and Pinksheets trading systems.
The way of the new US free market and capitalism; (privatization). Will we never learn? Companies paying rating agencies for ratings is what got us into trouble with derivative trading in 2006. LOL
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Let me see if I have this new structure straight.
The OTC is a market place still. Which have market makers make market on 2 tiers. Inter broker and public. Stocks will soon only trade on the OTC market exchange. That exchange presents public quotation tier 2 and OTC Link presents tier 1 quotations.
OTC Markets public electronic trading system has 3 tiers of reporting company worthiness, which charges companies fees for quotation and for the top tier, DAD's rate whether a company is strong enough to get there. Other wise you just need to be current SEC reporting and pay the higher fee to be listed in tier 2. And pink companies also need be disclosure current to pay fees or their stock is not quoted on the OTC at all or as Caveat Emptor. I guess OTC markets controls the gray market also.