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Sounds good Impact, good to have you as the party organizer!
For now everything is on ipci
Hope you'll get it right as you did with your forecast of price @1.00 by 1st of September.
How many are you hoping to buy on the deeps yourself are trying to trigger ?
I mostly agree with what you said.
What is important is that IPCI keeps on delivering.
If the price doesn't follow as would be the case for all the other biotechs we'll probably end up being bought @ 11.50 (and the rumor reveals to be founded).
If the price start to follow then we can ride our horse till much more intersting targets.
Let's see what happens with the next catalyst, hoping to base at this levels, and not back to 2.
GLTY
The ask seems to put a cap @2.85.
Clearly someone in action (MM or else) to keep the price down.
Reasons unknown..for now
I don't like what I see....mmmm
What's going on with this company ?
What the hell is going on ?
Angelo,
now I need to know which your gut feelings are
Samsa, Sprot has been palying his game for long now. He wants the shares to go down to buy as cheapest as possible and grab as much as he and his friends can.
Then when he will be fully loaded he would turn positive and pushing.
Each of his motives have been neutralized by recent happenings.
Now let's try to get positive, as Doog is suggesting; honestly if the pending catalysts hit by the end of the year I think we all be spending a very nice Christmas.
Technically 3.20-3.30 is where the stock was pushed down over the past months; from there will be nice because we will be going to kiss shorters @ 4.
Pre-market: 1share @ 3.22
That's a massage for somebody; we'll never know who and the meaning
Company Trevena is the centre point of the article.
Interesting to see how a company with no products in the market, making a 37mln usd loss (as per 10Q Sec filing), has a current mkt cap of 325Mln Usd.
This is a point to all those that are here writing about IPCI deals not having an immediate imapact on cash, revenue, profit...whatever.
I'm not saying that those analysis here proposed are not right, but I want to point out how the share price of a biotech usually tends to give very much importance to future developments.
Hope to see IPCI share price starting to reflect those future cash inflows.
Go IPCI, it's time
Samsa I have the same disillusional attitude watching all these odd trading sessions.
But then I try to understand why a company delivers and the price doesn't follow.
There is always a reason. So having approvals Worthing hundreds of millions and moving up slightly....there s got to be a reason.
Most of the job is made by an automatic system, but with an algorithm tuned by a person. Sometimes you have a human actively operating in the market.
Srot, be honest and remember when you were challenging everybody saying we were headed at 1.00 per share...for sure !
So glad you are seeing the turnaround approaching...3 or not today doesn't matter if in 1year we are at 20!
GLTY
MM actions are perfectly legal, expect if they "turn" shares in favour of some player.
But it is very difficult to prove and very easy for them to make it with tiny cap companies
Nood, I'm frustrated as well. I don't know how many shorts are willing to open new positions.
It's more likely that as soon as buying pressure stops you have the ask price going down very easily. That's why I am more inclined to think of an orchestrated move to keep the price low.
Once the game is finished we will probably see a good movement upwards.
JMO
MM goes net long when the share price falls and net short when prices goes up.
I'm talking about trends, not just intraday or very short term.
So most likely the MM was net long when we were at 1.60 and we reached 1.45.
Now is selling for profit.
Also consider that MM keeps on buying and selling from itself, triggering stops and take profits which generate "real" trades.
I think you just described one of the operative mode of MM.
Mopar, no cospiracy. Market maker is an institution which is registered with the Nasdaq in order to grant liquidity on a stock (more than one) during all trading sessions.
In order to do so will trade itself, partially intraday and partially multiday, resulting in net long or net short positions.
So MM is by nature capable to move or influence the price since it can decide where to put bid and ask and with which quantity.
My idea (nothing more than that, just a feeling) is that the MM is working hard to keep the price down in order to allow some interested buyer to get in at cheapest possible prices.
I'm hypothesising this because the price is much controlled considering the recent news and the huge volume compared to average in the past.
So in conclusion someone is accumulating, maybe with more than one vehicle, with the MM driving the price as he can.
Who is buying wants the control of the company, one way or the other.
JMHO
would love to hear your gut feeling.
Enjoy your kid, they are the best part of life
I'm not sure of what it is going on; what I can tell from the numbers is that (on a net basis)
- there was no short covering during the spike (which means as some of us have been saying that probably the major part of shorts were open around 4$); so we need to pass 4$ to see a huge accelaration
- we hadn't an increase of shorting (position based)
My idea is that the stock is being controlled by the Market Market which is facilitating someone (one or more institutionals) on the buying low.
It's something that probably breakes the law, but often happens with very small cap stocks.
To me, the only subject which can in someway control the share price with this very big volume is the MM (which has reasons for doing so)
A shorter would have to implement a huge quantity of money, which would be nonsense at this moment when you have improtant catalyst pending. And be sure that a shorter with big ammunition studies well a company he wants to heavely sell.
JMHO, I could be wrong, but I run out of explanations
Short Interest as of 30th of Sept: 1.192Mln Shares (1.181 on the 15th)
Price went from 1.82 to 2.10 over the 2 weeks period.
We had the huge buyout rumor related spike on the 22 of Sept.
If you have news which undoubtely bring value to the company (I think we could have IPCI with positive EPS in 2017) and the price doesn't follow, someone wants to buy low and take control of the company.
No shorter will likely increase its position at this time, or at least noone with such a big selling power.
Only the MM can control the stock causing some institutional to buy lower and still having a gain for itself.
Now ATM, new share issuance and other dilution possibilites are out of the table.
I'm so negatively surprised. I cannot find any other explanation, but I'm ready to listen
How can the price be so controlled with such a huge volume over the last days ?
The more I see it and the more it looks like somebody has given mandate to the MM to turn in its favour (through multiple accounts/companies) the max possible quantity of shares at the cheapest possible price.
Reason: buyout/control of the company
Probably just a fantasy, but after months of 80K shares of avg volume you get 10mln shares in a bunch of days and the price doesn't spike violently ?
Odd
Angelo,
usually is very difficult to get the exact % of profit sharing.
I think that the fact they are going to manufacture the compound gives a much more interesting perspective on how much money IPCI is going to make from these generics: we have cost+plus for manufacture and probably a good profit sharing (your suggestion of 50/50 would be Amazing to me).
I think that if we get Focalin remaining strenghts in a short time IPCI is going to increase tremendously its negotiation power (due to cash in their hands) for Rexista-Podras.
Would love to some some buying crazyness at somepoint on this stock...but even a Tobira-like jump (8x overnight) would make me superhappy and willing to wait some more months.
Their game to keep the price as low as possible will likely go on.
But...
What is important is that company's value is increasing for real. Cash on hand is now solved for the next months.
for istance, if someone was thinking of a buyout @ 11.50 (just using the number we read about) at the beginning of sept, now has to factor in the new deal, which present real value.
And the big catalyst still have to hit.
Let's wait for possible Analyst update and/or SA article to get further exposure.
We long time holders are likely to feel somewhat frustrated with the short term price action, but after this news I feel much more positive.
The Mallinckdrot deal was probably just ready to be signed; it means that Della Penna has been working on several sides (which makes me think that this is one of the reason they are so shy in releasing PR or detailed info).
I'm also thinking of a package like deal already in place (ready to be signed) for the 3 oldest ANDAs, Effexor-Glucophage-Protonix (2bln in sales together)
Samsa,
are you saying that is possible that they already have a wholesale partner ?
And if yes, why don't PR it?
Your interpretation is Always useful for us not english mother tongue. Thanks
"Now, that language does not stop a partnership but then leans more to the fact they already have one rather than seeking one, because again, they intend to launch."
My point is that is the only biotech stock where I don't see positive speculation, just a market action favourable to those who don't believe in the company.
Here we go...shorters on the driver seat.
IPCI, bring on some news, it's unreal when you compare the stock performance to Others I'm watching...they double in weeks based on pII trials or some new analyst coverage.
We had approvals (2 Andas),
Analyst coverage (TP more than double than current),
competitors falling apart,
hot abuse deterrent sector (with politics and FDA all pushing)
very diversified pipeline (really unsual for such a small co)
...and we are back again below 2.5 ??
C'mon IPCI, it's time to push all the manipulators out !
I think that one of the problems is that if you take the aggressive speculator point of view (=someone who doesn't really know about IPCI catalysts and products) then you get the idea that the management is unable to deliver.
It's not my way of thinking but...
- keppra approved and no partnered
- seroquel approved and no partnered (so far)
- focalin more sold strenghts not approved (now much more than a year after FDA mess)
- Rexista NDA filing postponed
- cash on hand about to finish
Now we on this board all know how to answer and deal with each of the above point, but for a shorter looks like "that's a short candidate" or for a speculator it's like "buy today and sell Tomorrow, then again"
So I'm willing to suffer some more hoping to have a Tobira like event (8x) which sends us to the moon
I agree. Markets wants to see cash...upfront cash !
So far shorters have managed to defend their aerea.
"When keppra was approved shorters were able to build positions around 3.10-3.20...passed that level we could see an acceleration towards 4. "
Wanna see them crushed.
Let's hope that the big volume we are seeing today is also made of some new institutional starting to bid its new position...ralk about floating getting thinner.
shorts are in total control of this stock; considering more than 1mln shares short and the floating which is way below the figure you can get with usual calculations (a lot here are long term holders)
Now seems to be opening way below 3...I'm shocked myself if it stays that low. I would have no exlpanation for that except the shorting game by the warrants holders, explained perfectly by Angelo.
Fingers Crossed
When keppra was approved shorters were able to build positions around 3.10-3.20...passed that level we could see an acceleration towards 4.
I don't know where it's going to close today, what I really hope is a consolidation above 3.50.
Arriving to a hopefully lucrative partnership announcement around 4 should definitevely destroy the shorts and push the price into double digit.
But now let's have a look at today's battle.
GLTA
Is there a rule on ATM closeby results ? Just asking
Would be nice to be sure to have ATM out of game next week.
Thing is that I Hope a positive newsflow just started causing shorters to cover in the next two weeks
Very difficult to make projections for the price.
Often the max is reached in intraday of second session after news realease.
If this is the case we go past 4...
We have to consider shorts, possible ATM and possible further news (agreement for xeroquel).
I believe that trading in and out or out and in again would be extremely difficult
Samsa, your interpretation is absolutely legit. I was expressing my hope more than adversity your reasoning.
Your suggestion about the wholesale could be possible; an agreement with a distributor ?
Perfect storm here will be to have residual focalin strengths next week. Company would solve cash issues overnight and everybody would just see the upside of the multiple catalysts
Samsa, they should hire salesforce hence costs before revenue and I think would make no sense for Just a generic med.
Hope they partner asap, possibly Including keppra.
Would love to see a consolidation around 3.5 before all the catalyst s for Resistance start to kick in.
I often pointed out that ipci is more than "just" Rexista
Let's see how market reacts, but for sure we have a good timing considering recent exposure we had on SA website
Too good to be true ...I would start crying
In bocca al lupo
We should have the news release by today...otherwise no reason for halting before the weekend
Now I'm using Just a shortcut of my patented acronym
FC
Fingers
Crossed
Should be a news pending...usually a material one