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Not Sure
Ethanol Produces Almost Zero Carbon as Fuel,@ 10% Fossil Fuel Replacement x 1 Year(when CA. Cap & Trade Was Signed Into Law)
160 mln Gal. Replacing 160 mln Gal Of Fossil Fuel
= How Many Tons Of Carbon ?
Carbon Credits = 1 Ton Carbon
1 Credit Has Traded for as Much as $20,& as lil as $10
There Is a $10 Floor for Trading
Also,
1 Ton Of DDGS=Value of 1.22 Tons Of Corn Creating Some Credits.
It Must Be Signifigant Value In Credits for Pacific Ethanol to Go
After It from CA. Energy Commission.
They Are Recieving 1 Years Worth Before Nov. 14th Cap&Trade Auction,After that Quarterly.
Maybe More On the Conf. Call
They had Previously Said they Would Know More in Q1 2013
but Auction Was Moved Up from Jan. 2013 to Nov. 14th 2012
Carbon Credit Info
(I Dont Know Exactly How Many Credits Pacific Ethanol Will Be Recieving to Sell for the Last Years Opperation,but they Can Begin Selling them On Nov. 19th)
www.energy.ca.gov/contracts/PON-11-601/00-PON-11-601_Biofuels_Application_Manual.pdf
Request by Pacific Ethanol for the Grant Money
www.energy.ca.gov/business_meetings/2012_packets/2012-10-10/Item_05_Alt_Fuels_OIR/2012-02-22_Joint_Letter_to_Commissioner_Peterman.pdf
The state’s carbon market begins Nov. 14 & Will Create $1 billion in revenue
How California could surpass $1 billion in cap-and-trade auction revenue by 2013 « Legal Planet: Environmental Law and Policy
Renewable Energy Credits
What is a Renewable Energy Credit?
A Renewable Energy Credit (REC) represents the environmental and renewable attributes of renewable electricity. A REC can be sold either "bundled" with the underlying energy or "unbundled", as a separate commodity from the energy itself, into a separate REC trading market.
California law (Public Utilities Code §399.12[f]) defines a REC as:
"a certificate of proof, issued through the accounting system established by the Energy Commission… that one unit of electricity was generated and delivered by an eligible renewable energy resource.
‘Renewable energy credit’ includes all renewable and environmental attributes associated with the production of electricity from the eligible renewable energy resource, except for an emissions reduction credit issued pursuant to Section 40709 of the Health and Safety Code and any credits or payments associated with the reduction of solid waste and treatment benefits created by the utilization of biomass or biogas fuels.”
Neil M. Koehler - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director
OPIS has recently started to post both a dollars per ton and a cents per carbon point. So we're seeing more price discovery, more activity around trading of credits. We expect that to ramp up as well in 2013.
Pg. 5 Of Conf. Call from Q2 2012
Pacific Ethanol Management Discusses Q2 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha
OPIS Current Carbon Credit Price Is Located In this Report On Oct. 3rd
www.opisnet.com/market/west_coast_spot.pdf
PEIX Selling Carbon Credits @ Nov.14 Auction
http://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/x/198660/Energy+Law/Coming+Soon+Californias+First+CapAndTrade+Auction
Data On Carbon Credit & Ethanol Price In CA.
http://www.opisnet.com/market/west_coast_spot.pdf
Wrong Margin Calc,Heres the Right One
Not Including Argintina Milo Cost,Using US. Price
West Coast Ethanol $2.545 a gallon
Corn December 2012 $ 7.37
$7.37/3 = $2.456
$2.506 x 2 = $4.913
MILO $7.13
$7.13/3 = $2.376
2/3 Corn $4.913 + 1/3 Milo $2.376 =
$7.289 per Bushel Of Feed Stock
1.Ethanol + WDGS = $2.545 + $0.867 = $3.412
2.Feed Stock = $7.289/2.8 = 2.603
3.Natural Gas = .09
4.Enzymes = .04
5.Yeast = .03
6.Electricity = .03
7.Denaturants = .08
8.Other Costs = .30 (Wages,water,mainenance etc.)
Gross Operating Margin Is Line 1 Minus the sum of lines 2 thru 8
$3.412 - $3.173 = $0.239 Per Gallon Of Ethanol
Margins Friday not Using Argintina Milo for
Margins as Of Friday Oct. 26th = .371c Per Gallon not Using Argentina Shipment Of Milo Which Is MUCH Cheaper
Margins Are Positive & Have Been For All Of Q4
West Coast Ethanol $2.545 a gallon
Corn December 2012 $ 7.37
$7.37/3 = $2.456
$2.506 x 2 = $4.913
MILO $7.13
$7.20/3 = $2.376
2/3 Corn $4.913 + 1/3 Milo $2.376 =
$7.289 per Bushel Of Feed Stock
1.Ethanol + WDGS = $2.545 + $0.867 = $3.412
2.Feed Stock = $7.289/2.8 = 2.603
3.Natural Gas = .09
4.Enzymes = .04
5.Yeast = .03
6.Electricity = .03
7.Denaturants = .08
8.Other Costs = .30 (Wages,water,mainenance etc.)
Gross Operating Margin Is Line 1 Minus the sum of lines 2 thru 8
$3.545 - $3.173 = $0.2434
Current Margins @ Todays Corn & Milo Using 1/3 Milo & 2/3 Corn Prices
= .371c Per Gallon
December Corn
$3.37
ZCZ12 | Commodity Futures Price Quote for Corn December 2012
Milo
$7.13
Garden City Co-op, Inc. - Homepage
West Coast Ethanol
$2.545
Ethanol Snaps Four-Day Losing Streak on Discount to Gasoline - Bloomberg
Information On Carbon Credits PEIX Will Be Selling
LCFS credits are generated by selling low-carbon intensity transport fuels for use
Ethanol Reduces Carbon Emission Generating LCFS Carbon Credits Awarded to Pacific Ethanol by
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) as a Result Of Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) Method 2 pathway approval process.
a metric ton of DDG can replace, on average, 1.22 metric tons of feed consisting of corn
WDGS Also Generate Credits for Pacific Ethanol.
Win/Win
CARB's Cap-and-Trade Auction
Date: 2012-09-28
On Thursday, California's Air Resources Board (Carb) chairperson Mary Nichols said CARB may fine-tune the number of carbon permits it plans to give to specific companies before the first auction of allowances in November under the Golden State's cap-and-trade law. Nichols indicated that the industry allocations wouldn't change, but distribution to companies within the sectors could.
(Now this Says to Me, allowances are in November & Could Show Up In Earnings Quite Soon)
Now Aurgus Carbon Credit Trading Desk Sells these Credits at the Cap-and-Trade Auction.
These Credits Can Be Sold Immediatly After they Are Awarded by (CARB) California Air Resource Board.
Here Is a lil Information On Pacific Ethanol Recieving Full Value Of Credits Due to Production Of Low Carbon Biofuels
http://www.energy.ca.gov/business_meetings/2012_packets/2012-10-10/Item_05_Alt_Fuels_OIR/2012-02-22_Joint_Letter_to_Commissioner_Peterman.pdf
Somebody Call This Guy & See Whats Up
Contact: Neil Koehler, President and CEO, Pacific Ethanol, (916) 403-2123
Rule62
I am currently looking for Argitina ship Docs that Match the Ship the Milo Came in
@ Argintina Ports.
I also have been Using your Links to Look for the Purchase
The Milo got Unloaded Oct. 10th,maybe 1 month between shipments ?
they might be Close to Loading,so I thought I would Let You Know Im Looking & Say Thanks for the Links.
Thanks Rule 62
I Are One Too,62
& I Try to Abide by that Rule,Sorry I Didnt Earlier
Sorry,but Are You
Havent Really Seen Anything,but the Negative Side from You.
Makes Me Wonder ?
Any Way,the Milo Was Un Loaded On Oct. 10th.
So You are RIGHT!
100s Of Train Cars Of Milo Coming From Texas & Maybe Corn Hedging
are the Only Things Helping Q3 Earnings.
1/3rd Milo Mixture Feedstock Started Aug. 15th,So I Hope they Hedged More Corn than the 585,000 Bushels Noted In Q2 Earnings.
thats as Much as Is Known by Me,but It Sure Looks Better than Zacks Estimate -.12
We Must Keep In Mind Last Years Comp is a .12c Beat.
they Own 67% of the Plants Now=Increased Earn,but Dilluted Also
Cant Really Accurately Predict Q3 Earn. With All the Variables,Including Carbon Credit Sales.
I Am Sure the Conf. Call Will Include Big Suprizes.
Any Thoughts 62 ?
Would Like Some Opinions
I am Sorry for getting a lil Upiddy,I Appologize.
Hubert H Humphry Fellowship Congradulates Neil On Milo Delivery
https://www.facebook.com/UCDavisHHH?filter=1
October 10
Pacific Ethanol typically produces its ethanol with corn sourced locally near Stockton or via train shipment from the mid-west, but they recently received a shipment of milo from Argentina. Founding President & CEO, Neil Koehler took Javier Tonatto (Argentina Humphrey Fellow working on biofuels), Tahawar Hussain (Pakistan working in renewable energy), Nasr Alshamsi (Oman port inspector) and Jaqueline Nesi (Brazil port inspector) to the port to see the shipment being unloaded.
What This ? a Milo Shipment Doc Port"O"Stockton?
http://www.ndc.iwr.usace.army.mil/ports/pdf/ps/ps32.pdf
Investor Relations at Pacific Ethanol, Inc.
Phone#: 916-403-2755 Tollfree: 866-508-4969
You Might Want to Ask them
If You Have Enough Time to Write these Posts,You Have Enough time to
Call.
Maybe You Can Shed Some Light On the Matter Instead Of Critisizing
I Posted What I Saw,to Share With The Board.
You Want Me to Stop Searching Up Info ?
I Do It for My Self,but Dont Mind Sharing.
What Are Ya Short Or Something 62 ?
Also the Purchase Date On the Milo
Maybe MUCH Cheaper than Current US. Market Value &
Make My Margin Calculation WAY Wrong,Q4 Could Be MUCH Better than Expected.
Margins Are Positive & Have Been For All Of Q4
West Coast Ethanol $2.565 a gallon
Corn December 2012 $7.61
$7.61/3 = $2.536
$2.506 x 2 = $5.072
MILO $7.20
$7.20/3 = $2.40
2/3 Corn $5.072 + 1/3 Milo $2.40 =
$7.472 per Bushel Of Feed Stock
1.Ethanol + WDGS = $2.565 + $0.889 = $3.454
2.Feed Stock = $7.472/2.8 = 2.668
3.Natural Gas = .09
4.Enzymes = .04
5.Yeast = .03
6.Electricity = .03
7.Denaturants = .08
8.Other Costs = .30 (Wages,water,mainenance etc.)
Gross Operating Margin Is Line 1 Minus the sum of lines 2 thru 8
$3.454 - $3.238 = $0.2434
Current Margins @ Todays Corn & Milo Using 1/3 Milo & 2/3 Corn Prices
= .216c Per Gallon
They Mentioned the Shipment Aug. 1 @ This Meeting
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2011-ALT-1/documents/2012-08-01_workshop/2012-08-01_transcript.pdf
I Would Imagine a Month & 12 Days Is Long Enough for the Ship
to Get Here
The Article Says
To accomplish that, Pacific Ethanol is working with Visalia-based EdenIQ to do a “bolt on” cellulosic plant to an existing corn ethanol facility that will work with a variety of feedstock.Paul Koehler says talks with EdenIQ “are mature” to launch the project. Similar work is underway at Aemetis with federal incentives in place to make cellulosic biofuel.
http://sierra2thesea.net/energy/valley-ethanol-plants-work-to-wean-themselves-from-midwest-corn
Pacific Ethanol may not have an Intrest In the Plant,but they are Working With EdenIQ/Dont Know Why they Would Do That With Out an Intrest.So they Have a Partnership.According to California Energy Conf. CEPIP $ will Likely Be Used for Cellulosic Bolt On Going Forward & the $6 mln CEPIP is Given Out In January.
PEIX Will have to Open Madera to get Full CEPIP Payment
sorghum from Argentina In Port of Stockton Picture
Picture shot-2012-09-12-at-3:37 PM
http://sierra2thesea.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Screen-shot-2012-09-12-at-3.37.24-PM.png
Pacific Ethanols Un Announced Suprise
Valley Ethanol Plants Work To Wean Themselves From Midwest Corn | Sierra2theSea
Photo Tour: Cellulosic Ethanol Plant Comes to California Farm Country
Here Is a Picture Of PEIX New Cellulosic Plant
http://www.triplepundit.com/2012/10/san-joaquin-valleys-edeniq-pushes-cellulosic-ethanol-innovation/
Pacific Ethanol lil Secret “bolt on” cellulosic plant
http://sierra2thesea.net/energy/valley-ethanol-plants-work-to-wean-themselves-from-midwest-corn
Their Ship Comes In
Well known player Pacific Ethanol based in Sacramento, says they too are bringing in milo instead of Midwest corn by the unit-train load,100 cars each, confirms company spokesman Paul Koehler.
CEO of Pacific Ethanol Neil Koehler told the same CEC committee August 1 they hope to bring in a vessel-load of sorghum from Argentina that could replace up to 5% of the Midwest corn they need to buy currently. This week, Paul Koehler confirmed the shipment “is likely to come into the Port of Stockton” where they have an ethanol plant – this fall. “I looks like it will happen.”
Pacific Ethanol like others, is adding corn oil extraction at 4 plants in the West that will give them another high value co-product to sell as did Calgren in Tulare County last year,helping them to move to profitability.
Says Neil Koehler, “Our goal” is to use“ locally produced corn and milo, and we would hope that that would be 25 to 40 percent over the next one to two years. We have programs in place that we’re looking for some support on to put in a five million gallon cellulose increment into our existing facilities.. in the range of 10 percent additional, with “the majority of our feedstock being both locally grown and new feedstocks over the next three to four year period.”
To accomplish that, Pacific Ethanol is working with Visalia-based EdenIQ to do a “bolt on” cellulosic plant to an existing corn ethanol facility that will work with a variety of feedstock.Paul Koehler says talks with EdenIQ “are mature” to launch the project. Similar work is underway at Aemetis with federal incentives in place to make cellulosic biofuel.
All the state’s plants including EdenIQ continue to lobby the California Energy Commission to help them financially move in the new direction agreeing to a compromise with critics recently over future state corn ethanol subsides. Late last month Governor Jerry Brown signed AB 523 by Assemblyman David G. Valadao into law. AB 523 eliminates all future state funding for the production of ethanol derived from corn after July 2013,less than a year from now.
Currently, approximately $6 million dollars is provided and AB 523 would redirect that money away from corn ethanol and towards other forms of renewable energy, including ethanol not derived from corn.”Over a year ago, we brought together our friends in Agriculture and many from the environmental community to oppose further state funding for the production of corn ethanol,says Valadao.
Thanks Slashnuts for the Article
Wonder how Much they Sold in Q3 @
George Orwel DTN Energy Reporter
Bio
Thursday 08/02/12
PNW Cash Ethanol Prices Climb on Tightening Supply
The Pacific Northwest hub posted slightly stronger cash ethanol prices in early trade, boosted by supply concerns. That market was talked in a $2.75 to $2.78 gal bid/ask range, up 3.0cts on the session, even as other regional hubs saw lower prices. "There's more demand there [in PNW] than in California," said a trade source. "Lots of vessels reached southern California last week so that may be making that market long... The East Coast sure is, as well as Florida."
I Know they had Un Sold Ethanol Supply @ the End of Q2
I Havent Calculated PEIX Carbon Credit Sales Into Margins
Because I Dont Know How
Carbon Credits
A carbon credit is defined as a tradable permit scheme. The carbon credit provides an eco-friendly way to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases that are emitted through emissions. The carbon credit gives monetary value to emissions. This means that the owner of the carbon credit has the right to emit one ton of carbon dioxide into the air. The origination of the carbon project generated carbon credits.
There have been international treaties that have been drawn up in order to set a quota on the amount of greenhouse gases that a country can produce. An example of one of these treaties is the Kyoto Protocol. When a treaty is set up the country then sets a quota on the amount of emissions that a business can generate. A business that goes over their quota is forced to purchase a carbon credit for the excess emissions that were produced. A business that is below their quota is rewarded by making money from selling their extras carbon credits.
Since carbon credits are bought and sold a business that spends money reducing the amount of emissions it puts out can make up for the loss of money by selling the carbon credit to another business. Carbon Credits can be traded or exchanged between two seperate businesses or sold or bought in the international market. The carbon credit is bought or sold at the current market price. The two exchanges that deal with carbon credits are the European Climate Exchange and the Chicago Climate Exchange.
How a Carbon Credit Works to Reduce Emissions
A carbon credit creates a market incentive for reducing greenhouse emissions. The carbon credit is able to do this by placing a monetary value on the cost of air pollution. A carbon is now a business cost much like supplies or labor.
To give an example if a factory is responsible for producing one hundred thousand tons of greenhouse emissions per year. The government may enact a law that limits the amount of maximum emissions that a business can generate. If the factory is given the quota of eighty thousand tons then the factory must purchase twenty carbon credits to offset the excess amount of carbon that is released into the air.
Louis Redshaw head of the environmental market at Barclays Capital has said in the past, “Carbon will be the world’s biggest commodity market, and it could become the world’s biggest market overall.” This is a powerful statement that carries a lot of weight in the business community. Managing emissions is expected to grow to one trillion dollars within the next ten years.
Many financial experts have predicted that emission levels will continue to rise over time. It is believed that the number of companies that will need or want to purchase carbon credits will continue to increase. This means that the influx will push the market price up. This will encourage more large corporations and businesses to undergo eco-friendly activities in order to create extra carbon credits that can be sold on the open market. Other businesses that do not create the amount of carbon allotted will be able to also sell their excess carbon credits for a profit. It seems that this will create an open market with endless possibilities.
$10 per metric is the auction "floor" price under AB 32 for 2013
Current Price ($19.50)
The value of a California Carbon Allowance (CCA) for delivery in December 2012 closed at $19.50
"California Carbon Soars 14 Pct As New Buyer Enters," (Reuters Point Carbon)
."Carbon Trading Heating Up," Wall Street Journal (online), September 14, 2012.
Wall Street Journal Article Implies Carbon Credit Price Is Going To RIP Upward,When In Full Swing in 2013.
(Supply & Demand Bubba)
More Gross Pollutors,than Green Carbon Credit Producers & Gross Pollutors HAVE TO Buy Hand Over Fist!
1users liked this posts
China’s Economy Shows Signs of Stabilizing as Exports Strengthen
China’s Economy Shows Signs of Stabilizing as Exports Strengthen
By Bloomberg News - Oct 14, 2012 12:00 PM ET
China’s exports and money supply grew more than estimated in September, signaling that the world’s second-biggest economy may be stabilizing after a slowdown that began in the first quarter of 2011.
Overseas shipments increased 9.9 percent from a year earlier, the customs administration said Oct. 13 in Beijing. That was more than the 5.5 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. M2 money supply gained 14.8 percent, the fastest pace since June 2011, a central bank report showed the same day.
Inflation numbers due today and an Oct. 18 report on the third-quarter economy will complete the picture as officials assess whether more measures are needed to sustain growth as the Communist Party prepares for a once-a-decade leadership handover starting next month. At an International Monetary Fund meeting in Tokyo yesterday, central bank official Yi Gang said that bubble risks remain in housing markets in major cities and stimulus will be restricted to an “appropriate” level.
“Better-than-expected export growth is likely to help support employment and reduce pressure for more policy easing ahead of the leadership transition,” said Chang Jian, a Hong Kong-based economist at Barclays Plc. “Monetary easing has been constrained by concerns about a rebound in property prices and medium-term inflation risks.”
The lack of a “big” fiscal stimulus also points to concerns about rising government debt, banks’ non-performing loans, and inefficient investment, she said.
Inflation Forecast
Inflation was 1.9 percent last month, close to a two-year low, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. China’s gross domestic product expanded 7.4 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to the median in a separate survey, the seventh quarterly deceleration.
Yi, a deputy governor at the central bank, said yesterday that while this year’s inflation rate is “fine” and may be 2.7 percent for the full year, longer-term threats are from agricultural costs and prices for imported raw materials, commodities and energy, which can be driven up by global monetary easing.
The IMF last week reduced its estimate for China’s growth this year to 7.8 percent, which would be the weakest pace since 1999, as Europe’s debt crisis crimps exports. Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, cut its forecast for global consumption of the metal on slowing Chinese demand.
Limiting Stimulus
China has refrained from implementing stimulus on the scale of the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion at the time) package it unleashed at the end of 2008 during the global financial crisis. The response to the latest slowdown has included two cuts in interest rates, three reductions in bank reserve requirements, lower taxes, higher spending on social welfare and accelerated investment approvals.
The expansion in M2 was driven by the central bank pumping record amounts of cash into the money markets through reverse repurchase agreements, said Hu Yifan, Hong Kong-based chief economist at Haitong International Securities Group. New lending was below economists’ estimates, datashowed last week. Analysts' median forecast had been for a 13.7 percent gain in M2.
The central bank’s Oct. 13 report also showed the nation’s foreign-exchange reserves, the world’s largest, rose to $3.29 trillion in September from $3.24 trillion in June.
Economic Momentum
The trade and money supply data “suggest economic momentum in China may be picking up,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist with Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. “These upside surprises are consistent with other positive signals in recent weeks” indicating growth may rebound this quarter, he said.
Shipments to the European Union fell 10.7 percent last month from a year earlier. At the same time, those to Southeast Asian nations jumped 25.5 percent and sales to the U.S. increased at the fastest pace in three months.
Imports rose 2.4 percent, in line with the median economist estimate, leaving a trade surplus of $27.7 billion, the biggest since June.
In the first nine months, the surplus widened about 38 percent from a year earlier to $148.3 billion, customs data show. That may provide ammunition to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who pledges to designate the nation a currency manipulator if elected, a step the U.S. government hasn’t taken since 1994.
Geithner’s Take
The trade data indicated that the value of China’s exports to the U.S. exceeded its imports from the nation by about $21 billion in September. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said in Tokyo on Oct. 13 that while “some progress” has been made toward a more balanced economic relationship with China, more is needed.
Anti-China rhetoric may feature in the lead-up to the presidential election on Nov. 6, said Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong- based economist with Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) The yuan, which touched a 19-year high against the dollar last week, may appreciate until then in response to the pressure, Liu said. The currency has gained about 2 percent since July 25. It closed last week at 6.2672 per dollar.
PCAOB, Chinese regulators ink observational visits agreement
Publication:The Accountant
PCAOB, Chinese regulators ink observational visits agreement
By Carlos Martin Tornero
11 October 2012
The US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) has signed an agreement with Chinese regulators allowing it to conduct observational visits in China.
PCAOB spokesperson Colleen Brennan told The Accountant the agreement “is no longer tentative” and that is “a signed agreement for visits.”
During a conference last month, PCAOB member Lewis Ferguson announced both parties “tentatively agreed on observational visits” in China.
The observational visits are seen by PCAOB as a trust building exercise between the regulators and as an alternative way of cross-border cooperation.
Brennan reinforced that “these are not inspections” but that the PCAOB expects the first visits to take place in the next couple of months.
At present, China’s Security Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance do not permit the PCAOB to inspect China-based audit firms despite them auditing clients listed on the US stock exchange.
Chinese authorities maintain that an inspection conducted by a foreign agency violates its “national sovereignty” and can result in the disclosure of state secrets when the audits of state-owned companies are concerned.
Brennan said there are no further developments apart from the signature of the agreement and referred to Ferguson’s comments on the issue.
In his speech at a university in California, Ferguson mentioned that dialogue with Chinese authorities comprised concerning issues such as the cooperation in the course of PCAOB investigations.
This applies to cases such as Deloitte’s Chinese member firm, which earlier this year refused to turn over its audit work of Longtop Financial Services to the US Securities and Exchange Commission in compliance with Chinese secrecy laws.
PCAOB, Chinese regulators ink observational visits agreement
Publication:The Accountant
PCAOB, Chinese regulators ink observational visits agreement
By Carlos Martin Tornero
11 October 2012
The US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) has signed an agreement with Chinese regulators allowing it to conduct observational visits in China.
PCAOB spokesperson Colleen Brennan told The Accountant the agreement “is no longer tentative” and that is “a signed agreement for visits.”
During a conference last month, PCAOB member Lewis Ferguson announced both parties “tentatively agreed on observational visits” in China.
The observational visits are seen by PCAOB as a trust building exercise between the regulators and as an alternative way of cross-border cooperation.
Brennan reinforced that “these are not inspections” but that the PCAOB expects the first visits to take place in the next couple of months.
At present, China’s Security Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance do not permit the PCAOB to inspect China-based audit firms despite them auditing clients listed on the US stock exchange.
Chinese authorities maintain that an inspection conducted by a foreign agency violates its “national sovereignty” and can result in the disclosure of state secrets when the audits of state-owned companies are concerned.
Brennan said there are no further developments apart from the signature of the agreement and referred to Ferguson’s comments on the issue.
In his speech at a university in California, Ferguson mentioned that dialogue with Chinese authorities comprised concerning issues such as the cooperation in the course of PCAOB investigations.
This applies to cases such as Deloitte’s Chinese member firm, which earlier this year refused to turn over its audit work of Longtop Financial Services to the US Securities and Exchange Commission in compliance with Chinese secrecy laws.
Doub,thats my Plan too
Sash Said Its a Good Plan & hes Been Trading this a While
Keep In Mind I Used Dec. Corn Futures
Keep In Mind I Used Dec. Corn Futures,but they had Plenty Of Opportunity to Buy Cheaper
they had 12 Days to buy Cheaper & a few to buy at Same Price
Corn Bushel Went as Low as $7.05 Sept. 28th & Milo Went as Low as $6.22,So If they Bought feed stocks Down There Margins Would be MUCH Higher
Doub,Keep In Mind am Using Dec. Corn
but Looking at the Corn Chart,It Looks Like a Good Guess
for Aprox. Buying Price On Average.
http://www.barchart.com/charts/futures/ZCZ12
Q4 Is Looking Great!
Any Concerns with Q3,Sell Some In Q3 Earn. Run Up
Your .41c Are Almost Positive,Dont be Greedy sell the Trading Shrs.
for a Profit Going Into Earn.
BIOF Looked Great Fri,I Suspect PEIX Follows
I Calculated Margins as Of Friday with Milo
Margins Are Positive & Have Been For All Of Q4
West Coast Ethanol $2.57 a gallon
Corn December 2012 $7.52
$7.52/3 = $2.506
$2.506 x 2 = $5.013
MILO $7.03
$7.03/3 = $2.343
2/3 Corn $5.013 + 1/3 Milo $2.343 =
$7.356 per Bushel Of Feed Stock
1.Ethanol + WDGS = $2.57 + $0.8757= $3.4404
2.Feed Stock = $7.356/2.8 = 2.627
3.Natural Gas = .09
4.Enzymes = .04
5.Yeast = .03
6.Electricity = .03
7.Denaturants = .08
8.Other Costs = .30 (Wages,water,mainenance etc.)
Gross Operating Margin Is Line 1 Minus the sum of lines 2 thru 8
$3.4404 - $3.197 = $0.2434
Current Margins @ Todays Corn & Milo Using 1/3 Milo & 2/3 Corn Prices
= .2434 c Per Gallon
Dec. Corn Chart,Where Did PEIX Buy Corn
http://www.barchart.com/charts/futures/ZCZ12
rikelme
What # Besides December Corn Accurately Reflects Corn Prices When
Pacific Ethanol Bought the Corn
I Believe me & Sash Were Saying -.02 or -.03 Loss In Q2
My Margin Calc. In Q2 was Only Negative 2/3 Of the Quarter as I Remember.
My Cause for a Maybe Beat,was On a Thought they May have Hedged.
Pretty Sure I Made that Clear
Any Way,Good Luck to Us
I Will be Selling Some Into an Earnings Run Up to Play It Safe
Margin Calc. Doesnt Mean One Shouldnt Play It Safe
Higher Hi/Higher Lo
setting some Scaled Out Sells Just Below Previous .70 Hi,Even Though It May Hit a Higher Hi
My Reload Sell @ .68,7&6 + .41c Looks Like a Winner
Im Selling a lil Less than a Double Again,If I Get It.
Prop 37
a Vote for Cheap Steaks Is a Vote for $7 Gas
Most People Drive Every Day to Work,Meat Is a Luxury I Guess ?
Some Will Have to Eat 22% fat Hambergers Unfortunatly
Im Sure We Will All Be Eating Surf & Turf,To Celabrate $1
Requirement Being Met
Zacks PEIX Earnings est.
-.12 was Zacks Earnings Estimate
Keep In Mind,that Was Before 1/3 Milo was In Use + Diluted & that Guy Isnt Very Accurate Any Way.
Q3 PEIX Beat his Estimate by .12c,He has Been Wrong Every Q Ive Owned this Stock
Keep In Mind they Doubled Ownership from 34% to 67% that Will Double Earnings in Either Direction & Zacks Hasnt Changed thier Estimate
Increased Ownership/Diluted/ 1/3rd Milo & No Change in Zacks Earnings Estimate
They Will Be Wrong Again
Dilution = .-.12 Cut In 1/2 to -.06
Milo $1 Cheaper for 1/3rd Of Thier Feed Stock=Margin Increase Of .33c per Bushel
34% to 67% Ownership Doubles Gain Or Loss
? Zacks Is Asleep @ the Wheel
not Even Factoring In Potential Corn & Ethanol Hedging
Ethanol Plants Opening/Closing bad Co. Not Buisness
Indiana ethanol plant resumes operations
Valero Energy Corp., the third-largest U.S. ethanol producer, has restarted distilleries in Nebraska and Indiana, as profit margins for the fuel improved.
San Antonio-based Valero halted the operations in Albion, Neb., and Linden, Ind., in June, citing unprofitable returns. The Linden plant, about 50 miles northwest of Indianapolis, has about 60 employees who continued to work on maintenance during the shutdown.
The company is now operating all 10 of its plants, with the capacity to produce 1.2 billion gallons of the fuel annually.
“Ethanol margins improved to the point where it became feasible to operate the plants again,” Bill Day, a company spokesman, said
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1 MN Ethanol Plant Idles, Another Resumes Production
September 25, 2012
Denver-based Biofuel Energy Corporation said Monday that it has ceased ethanol production at its Fairmont plant until further notice, citing a market surplus of ethanol and high corn prices caused by the Midwestern drought.
Meanwhile, Gevo, Inc., plans to switch back to ethanol production in the state while it seeks to improve its process for producing a different product.
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BP’s planned Florida ethanol plant comes back to life
Meghan Sapp | October 3, 2012
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Columbia Pacific Bio Refinery
Managers at a long-awaited ethanol plant near Clatskanie say they are still on track to begin production this October.
The Columbia Pacific Bio Refinery, situated on a nearly 43-acre site at Port Westward, planned to be fully operational earlier this year with workers at the plant preparing the facility for production. But that opening was delayed, resulting in the layoff of 50 of its 70 employees in May.
Plant co-manager Mark Fleischauer expects to call back 30 to 40 of these workers when the plant is up and running. A new “more likely than not” start-date is scheduled for October, Fleischauer said.
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Guess It Depends On The Company & the Location Of the Plant
West Coast Is the Sweet Spot On West Coast Ethanol Price
PEIX the Sweet Spot Because Of Milo & Maybe Hedging
Election Gambling With Superior Odds S/A PEIX Long!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/909461-election-gambling-with-superior-odds
Romney has an 80% chance of losing, according to Nate Silver of NYT. But the market isn't pricing this in. Journalists make money from reporting on a neck-and-neck race, so they are trying their best to make 80% look like 50%. This misinformation creates superior odds for those who bet against it.
The following picks represent a diversified, actionable opportunity to generate significant returns on the election next month. If you disagree with Silver's projection, feel free to bet opposite.
Short Coal
As Jim Cramer points out, a Romney win would favor coal companies like American Electric Power (AEP), Southern Company (SO) and Union Pacific (UNP). These companies may have bonus alpha from shorting because Cramer specifically suggested them as picks for those who think Romney will win.
Also in this space are Arch Coal (ACI), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR), Peabody Energy (BTU), Consol Energy (CNX), James River Coal Company (JRCC), and Walter Energy (WLT).
Short Military
"If there's one sector that's likely to gain from a Romney win, it's defense" says Russ Brit, MarketWatch Los Angeles Bureau Chief. Romney would spend more on the military. Lockheed Martin (LMT) is extra-exposed because Romney wants to order jets from them. Also short Northrop Grumman (NOC), and Cramer's pick General Dynamics (GD).
Short Drilling
Schlumberger (SLB) and National Oilwell Varco (SLV) are oil companies named by Cramer in relation to Romney's policies on drilling. There are additional picks in this space, but the above are ideal for capturing election alpha. War with Iran is considered more likely under Romney, which means oil's price is inversely correlated with an Obama victory.
Short Regional Banks
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) and KeyCorp (KEY) are not attractive enough on a valuation basis to make it into Cramer's Charitable Trust, but he suggests them to Romney buyers. This makes them ideal shorts.
Short More Banks
Russ Brit singles out JP Morgan (JPM) as a key beneficiary of Dodd-Frank being repealed under Romney. Brit quotes Hugh Johnson, whose company consults on or manages almost $2BB in assets: "Of all the sectors I look at, [banking] might be the most affected".
Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Citi (C) rallied in correlation with a strong debate performance from Romney. An Obama victory will be bad for their stock prices in November.
Short Health Insurance
Aetna (AET), UnitedHealth (UNH), and WellPoint (WLP) have rallied in hopes that Romney would repeal Obamacare. Don't short (consider buying) Cigna (CI) which is the most undervalued in this group, according to David Einhorn.
Short Cisco (CSCO)
From Russ Brit: the company wants to repatriate a lot of cash, and could do so advantageously under tax rules vocally proposed by Romney. Cisco is also a nice proxy for business investments in technology; although it is debatable what Obama's victory will mean long-term, in November I think it will mean pessimism towards business investments.
I am uncomfortable with an isolated bearish view on Cisco. For diversification, one might as well also short Hewlett Packard (HPQ), not because Romney is a friend of CEO Whitman, but because the company is considered overvalued by analysts, and because Whitman lacks competence.
Long Alternative Energy
Romney specifically criticized Tesla (TSLA), the leading electric carmaker. First Solar (FSLR) would benefit from an Obama election and is big enough to survive secular over-supply challenges in its industry.
Alan B. Lankz tells Brit that Exelon (EXC) could see a 10% boost on Obama election, because it has invested in renewable energy. Not mentioned is the fact Obama and Energy Secretary Chu have a historical friendship with the company in nuclear power.
The Environmental Protection Agency is part of the executive branch. Under Obama, its requirements for bio-diesel are bullish for producers. Renewable Energy Group (REGI), Amyris (AMRS), Sino Clean Energy (SCEI), Syntroleum Corporation (SYNM), Gevo Inc (GEVO), Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) and Biofuel Energy Corp (BIOF) are buys creating sufficient diversification in this unpredictable space.
Long Manufacturing
Obama will encourage manufacturing in America. Brit suggests these buys: Deere (DE) for rebuilding infrastructure, Caterpillar (CAT) and other industrials in general, and Alcoa (AA) which makes aluminum (presenting an alternative to less green metals like steel).
Long Consumption
Obama advocates a consumer middle class. I like Capital One (COF) as it focuses on consumer banking.
COF can help offset the bank shorts listed above. Further offset is available through a long position in Goldman Sachs (GS), a bank known for coming out ahead when everything is going wrong in its industry.
Cramer suggests Family Dollar Stores (FDO) and Dollar General (DG) will benefit from Obama because poor people spend Welfare money at these stores.
Long Hospitals
Romney's win in the first debate hurt the following hospital stocks: Community Health Systems (CYH), HCA Holdings (HCA), Tenet Healthcare (THC), and LifePoint Hospitals (LPNT). Also buys under Obama are Healthsouth Corp (HLS) and HCP Inc (HCP). Obamacare reduces hospital losses from covering indigent patients, says Brit.
Long Med Tech
The market is worried about all medical stocks under Obamacare. The market shouldn't be, say's Al Gore's investments in Danaher Corp (DHR) and Henry Schein (HSIC), which were his fund's two largest positions as of latest 10Q disclosure. Danaher has substantial cashflow from Environmental, Life Sciences & Diagnostics, and Industrial Technologies divisions which benefit under Obama.
Henry Schein's CEO explains on Fox that Obamacare should not be discounting his company's share price - for example, newly insured patients will create increased demand for independent practitioners, who will thus spend more on med tech.
Long Russia
Romney is considered less friendly towards the country. Russian companies with American investors are expected to most benefit from an Obama election, but few of these are available in American exchanges. ETFs like (RSX) could move 5% on a finalized election.
Long Guns
Under Obama's current term a lot of people have been buying guns. The big names in this space are Smith & Wesson (SWHC) and Sturm, Ruger (RGR).
Long Biotech
Obama is likely to spend more on early-stage scientific research. Also, I happen to think biotech is the next secular boom market. iShares Nasdaq (IBB) (biotech ETF) has been doing quite well. If concerned about pharmaceuticals under Obamacare, one can pair with a short position in iShares Dow Jones (IHE) (pharmaceutical ETF).
Conclusion
This is not even close to an exhaustive list, however it allows for sufficient diversification to bet on the election outcome; the fundamentals of each individual company are less important in this context; with this set of investments one projects overall exposure towards the election.
CA. Higher Pump Prices Jan. 1
Californians could face higher gasoline costs when new low carbon fuel regulations gain traction Jan. 1
October 6, 2012
Think Gas Prices Are High Now? California Low-Carbon Fuel Will Mean Higher Pump Prices
Californians could face even higher gasoline and diesel costs when new low carbon fuel regulations gain traction Jan. 1, warn fuel experts at the Oil Price Information Service, which says studies show price hikes of as much as $1 per gallon for gasoline and $2 per gallon for diesel could be on the way
The California Low Carbon Fuel Standard aims to cut greenhouse-gas producing emissions from motor fuel by 10% between now and 2020. It was part of Assembly Bill 32 (AB 32), the Global Warming Solutions Act.
It aims to do this by setting an increasingly tighter cap on carbon emissions from motor fuels for sale in the state. Alternative fuels such ethanol or biodiesel are assigned Carbon Intensity (CI) scores based on the amount of carbon dioxide they pout out. Fuels that fall below CARBs cap generate credits and those who have a CI higher than the cap generate a deficit.
Critics say the low carbon fuel standard will have the unintended side effect of driving up pump prices as restrictions on crude oil feedstock tighten supply. High-carbon crudes like those coming from oil shale fields will result in a higher CI rating for the petroleum products they produce.
Others predict that the new standard will drive growth in the biofuels industry.
A recent report from Environmental Entrepreneurs (E2) notes that biofuel production capacity has increased from 437 million gallons last year to more than 685 million gallons. By 2015, the industry has the potential to produce 1.6 billion to 2.6 billion gallons — and California’s LCFS as well as the federal Renewable Fuel Standard create an incentive for investors and biofuel companies to continue to innovate and increase biofuel production, which in turn they say will drive down costs and carbon emissions
http://www.realnewsreporter.com/?p=10230
Neil Kohler Speaks On Pg 65
He Did Say,the Need for CEPIP Is Now.
Dont Know If He Was Talking About Q3 or Paying for Q1 & Q2 Losses
CEPIP is a CA. .25c Per Gallon Incentive When Margins are Negative.
Bolt On Cellulosic Tech. funding by the State of CA. Is Also Talked About,The State Already Funded Aemetis Keyes Plant Cellulosic Bolt On by EdeiQ Corp.
& a CA. Gov. Bill Is Talked About to Fund the Rest of the Plants In CA.
Here Is the Link
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2011-ALT-1/documents/2012-08-01_workshop/2012-08-01_transcript.pdf
Margin Calc. Does Not Include
March 29, 2012 08:30 AM Eastern Daylight Time
Mascoma and Lallemand Ethanol Technology Announce Commercial Agreement with Pacific Ethanol for Drop-In MGT™ Yeast Product and Commercial Roll-Out
(Or .02c Cost Advantage Of Yeast Technoledgy)
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Pacific Ethanol corn oil technology
Pacific Ethanol to implement corn oil technology
Pacific Ethanol announced it will install corn oil separation technology at the Pacific Ethanol Magic Valley plant with the intention to further implement corn oil separation at the other Pacific Ethanol Plants by the end of Q1 of 2013. The company has awarded ICM Inc., a leading provider of innovative technologies, solutions, and services to sustain agriculture and advance renewable energy, with a turn-key installation contract for its patented Advanced Oil Separation System, which is expected to be installed at the Magic Valley plant by the close of 2012. The company anticipates corn oil separation will begin generating revenue in Q1 of 2013.
(would contribute as much as $4.5 million, or 7 cents per gallon)