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Ecomike "Nasdaq Up list will be huge catalyst, increasing volume and liquidity." I doubt this will be the case. This is a company in a sunset industry rather than a sunrise industry, Future prospects are dim rather than rosy. There is no realistic reason to expect growth in earnings per share. There is rather in my view a realistic risk that earnings per share will decline.
Ecomike "We have 5 quarters of rising net profits, with Q-1 being a knock out and folks look at 52 weeks earning, back wards looking for pricing stocks."
Net profits have been very volatile in this period. Early on in the period net earnings per share were not much below a dollar per share. They then dropped to a bit more than 40 cents per share. The first quarter had warnings per share of $ 1.12 as far as I remember. In the quarterly report the reahsoigh n was explained: hich crack spreads. At the end of February they were generally 35 dollars per barrel. Now they seem to be about 20 dollars per barrel. Taking into account expenses of about 15 dollars per barrel it would seem realistic to expect earnings per share of less than 30 cents per share for the second quarter in my view. Time will show.
Ecomike "All it takes is for one large refinery to go off line for any reason to spike fuel prices..." This could happen but for it to have much effect on the stock price it would have been an advantage to be an otc-company where traders who have little understanding of fundamentals dominate. There is a surplus of refining capacity in the world and any spike in fuel prices can be expected to be short-lived.
NASDAQ-investors are more sophisticated generally and pay less attention to temporary occurrences.
Ecomike "There are Bio-techs and other stocks out there with no revenue and cash burn with higher stock prices and MCs than BDCO, and the FED is going switch directions on Interest rates later this year, and a new bull market has started."
You are certainly correct tha there are Bio-techs and other stocks with no revenue and cash burn with higher stock prices and market caps than BDCO. The simple reason is that stock prices are based on the expectation of future profits. A case in point I remember from the 1980s was Genentech. It had no and next to no revenue and the market cap was at least severel hundred million dollars. In a few years the market cap was way higher based on realities. There was very fast growth in revenues and profits that justified the past high market cap,
The problem of BDCO is that there is no realistic expectation of rapid growth for BDCO earnings per share in the future because BDCO operates in a sunset industry.
Ecomike "The debt reduction has been on going monthly, the debt has already been restructured out farther and at good rates, taking any short term debt risk off the table." Generally this is a valid point that justifies a substantially higher stock price than what was justified when the finanial position of BDCO was precarious.
The point is however that this improved financial position has alreade been reflected in the stock price being up by more than 1,000 since its low in the last couple of years. Net assets per share now about one third of the stock price. For this sort of company net assets areimportant when it comes to a fair stock price.
Ecomike "Also missed is the Ecomike-factor, the one who brought so many non posting new buyers to the stock, very quietly.. with no news.. " What is this factor referring to? Ignorant stock speculators who are unable to assess the realism of what you assert? Please explain!
Ecomike
"Also the risk of a shooting war or cold war with China, cutting off fuel supplies to the west."
There is a risk of a shooting war with Chihna looking several years ahead. But will the market anticipate such an eventuality several years before there is a significant risk that it will happen? How much fuel does China provide the west with??? (lol) Why would a war between China and Taiwan cut off oil supplies to the West even if the USA participates such a war? The USA has a long-term friendship with Saudi-Arabia.
Ecomike
"What is also missing in their BDCO analysis of the need for institutions to buy BDCO shares once it up lists to Nasdaq (which is underway) and hedge funds buying in advance of that."
Could you please provide documentation that institutions (which institutions?) have a duty to buy BDCO shares if BDCO uplists to NASDAQ! I have tried to find evidence of this sort of obligation and failed. Will investors in NASDAQ stocks be interested in buying shares in a sunset industry? How many shares do you expect that the institution will be forced to buy even if they don't want to?
Will hedge funds bother to buy shares in this inancial minnom?
Ecomike Yours is one of the most inane posts I have ever seen. It looks as if the market disagrees strongly with your very impressive reasoning today. Roughly 30,000 shares have traded when I write this. At least some shareholders seem to be moved by the facts I have presented. They sell shares while the pps is doing the opposite of rising.
Thanks gosox. This stock looked very cheap last year. I am unable to predict the future pps. I don't attach much importance to the fact that the person who owns the bulk of the company buys a few more shares.
gosox
The financial improved substantially during the calendar year 2022. These numbers relate to net assets for 2022 and 2021:
"TOTAL STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY (DEFICIT)
10,588
(23,627 )"
It improved another some 20 million dollars during the second quater to about 34 million dollars. Assuming 17 million shares net assets would seem to be about 2 dollars per share at the end of the first qarter. This means that the company no longer seems to be in a stressed financial position. But the net asset backing per share is only a third of the stock price at a pps of 6 dollars per share. This means that the net assets represent no good reason to pay more than 6 dollars per share. This is not a company that can anticdipate much growth. Therefore the net asset backing is quite important when it comes to what is a fair stock price.
modes What you post here explains why BDCO did a very good first quarter which was much better than I had expected. RD has stted that he thinks expenses of refining the crude amount to about 15 dollars per barrel. Let us assume that is correct. It would result in pre-tax profits of about 20 dollars per barrel at the end of February. A crack spread of about 20 dollars per barrel for diesel and jet fuel now would result in pre-tax profits of about 5 dollars per barrel, which is 25% of the pre-tax profits in the first quarter. Moreover, in the second quarter the refinerey did not have full production. Earnings per share were as far as I remember somewhat above 1 dollar per share in the first quarter. The earnings per share in the second quarter could based on the above facts be expected to be less than 25 cents per share.
modes Here are the crack spreads of jet fuel based on what the market expects:
"JUL 2023
JFCN3
-
-
23.050
-
-
-
0
18:20:17 CT
13 Jul 2023
AUG 2023
JFCQ3
-
-
21.790
-
-
-
0
18:22:00 CT
13 Jul 2023
SEP 2023
JFCU3
-
-
21.740
-
-
-
0
18:20:42 CT
13 Jul 2023
OCT 2023
JFCV3
-
-
21.610
-
-
-
0
18:20:36 CT
13 Jul 2023
NOV 2023
JFCX3
-
-
21.100
-
-
-
0
18:21:12 CT
13 Jul 2023
DEC 2023
JFCZ3
-
-
20.860
-
-
-
0
18:20:54 CT
13 Jul 2023
JAN 2024
JFCF4
-
-
20.910
-
-
-
0
18:21:48 CT
13 Jul 2023
FEB 2024
JFCG4
-
-
20.820
-
-
-
0
18:20:49 CT
13 Jul 2023
MAR 2024
JFCH4
-
-
20.670
-
-
-
0
18:22:03 CT
13 Jul 2023
APR 2024
JFCJ4
-
-
20.620
-
-
-
0
18:22:16 CT
13 Jul 2023
MAY 2024
JFCK4
-
-
20.470
-
-
-
0
18:20:22 CT
13 Jul 2023
JUN 2024
JFCM4
-
-
20.500
-
-
-
0
18:21:34 CT
13 Jul 2023
JUL 2024
JFCN4
-
-
20.600
-
-
-
0
18:21:28 CT
13 Jul 2023
AUG 2024
JFCQ4
-
-
20.700
-
-
-
0
18:21:16 CT
13 Jul 2023
SEP 2024
JFCU4
-
-
20.840
-
-
-
0
18:20:18 CT
13 Jul 2023
OCT 2024
JFCV4
-
-
20.850
-
-
-
0
18:21:44 CT
13 Jul 2023
NOV 2024
JFCX4
-
-
20.740
-
-
-
-
-
shifty It is a handicap to be smart if morons decide the stock price.
Ecomike You would have been right if you had predicted a sharp rise in the stock price in the near future. An explosion of the stock price lasting a couple of hours was not what you predicted. At the closing the pps had largely come back to what it was at the opening. What is interesting to investors is what the profit will be during the second quarter and the effect it will have on the stock price.
RD "Snow has probably told you much the same today." What mattered most in my posts was information I copied after having googled some sources regarding the status quo regarding current refinery capacity now and in the coming years in the USA and in the world.
downthehatch
I am almost 81 and I have been in the stock market since 1970. I don't blame you for anything! I think you provided us with what looked like a very good tip and I am grateful for such tips. I hardly ever invest just because somebody has recommended a stock. I make up my own opinion. I listened to a CC and found that mostly convincing. I paid attention to the name of the auditor. I bought and sold a significant number of shares in TIO at a profit of almost 200%. My big mistake was to sell shares in TIO and to buy shares in the other company when that looked a good idea. I did not pay attention to the possibility that there could be good reasons for the stagnant pps of the latter company. I was not as risk-averse as I should have been.
Otherwise I agree with much of you write. I remember the great enthusiasm for some companies producing products that enabled electronic communication around the year 2000. It may well be that oil refineries are now too cheap. But I still think that a pps of 40 dollars for BDCO is absurd. I see that waiting about a day and night in selling my BDCO I could at best have made a 100% profit instead of 50% profit. But I suspect the high of the day to have been a fluke. The real test will be when the numbers for the second quarter are filed in about a month.
Ecomike
"I am shocked at the lame attempts to get us to sell." I sold my 2,000 shares before any possible attempt at trying to get others to sell shares. I am not interested in buing shares after reading the googled information I have provided. If anything shocks me it is the very lame arguments adduced in trying to persuade speculators to buy shares in this stock at the current pps.
not2-Wise
"Sounds more like Woke Economics." Please explain! Who is not too wise?
downthehatch
I have told you before. On your recommendätion on this board I sold a lot of shares in this company to buy a big stake in TMNA. This stock was accused of being a big swindle and the pps plummeted from a pps of more than 30 cents to a low of less than 4 cents.I had a big loss. I bought back 2,000 shares from the money I received. I sold 1,000 shares yesterday and another 1,000 a few minutes after the opening this morning at a 50% profit. The money was invested in sunrise AI companies instead of in this sunset company. I also bought shares to the tune of 6,000 dollars in the same companies after I sold my TMNA shares. I am up a little less than 20% in those stocks. I try to use my brain. I have written several posts very recently that reflect my assessments. I encourage you to counter my reasoning.
Ecomike "Nasdaq up list of BDCO coming!"
This is a stock for clueless traders when it comes to fundamentals. NASDAQ is a trading platform for investors and sunrise industries like AI and not for sunset companies like BDCO.
u
Ecomike
Check PBF Energy! Your shares in BDCO are for sale at a pps of 40 dollars. A much bigger company in the sector trades at a p/e of 1.57. Assuming BDCO will have earnings per share of 3 dollars this year (which is optimistic it seems to me) and the p/e ratio is the same the pps would be 4.71 dollars. That is a far cry from 40 dollars. But I see a poster thinks you have a very good analysis. I disagree.
"Ratios & Margins PBF Energy Inc.
All values updated annually at fiscal year end
Valuation
P/E Ratio (TTM) 1.57"
Ecomike "Gulf hurricane season threats to non Texas/Houston coast states will run fuel prices up.." This may be relevant for traders but short-term price fluctuations are hardly of much relevance to investors.
"Are US refineries running at capacity?
Basic Info. US Utilization of Refinery Capacity is at 91.10%, compared to 92.20% last week and 95.00% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 89.63%.30. juni 2023"
Economike
Here is the reality I have googled:
"Can the US refine enough oil?
The United States has adequate refinery capacity to process its current and projected crude production, however the free world oversupply of refining capacity will persist through the few remaining years of increasing world crude oil production and thereafter." But you are entitled to indulge in wishful thinking.
downthehatch I thought there was a high risk that the party was over but I did not claim that it was. The reason was that I expected the relevant crack spreads would be much lower than in the past. So far I seem to be right in this respect as far as jet fuel is concerned. I checked the future crack spreads are concerned. They are very stable at about 20 dollars per barrel. This leaves little room for profits.
Based on the above and what has happened so far it was a big surprise why the earnings per share for the first quarter were so high. I have seen no good reason why the pps has been soaring ahead recently. I have seen no information that gives a good reason for expecting the future of this sort of business to be rosy rather than dim.
I sold my remaining shares to but a stock you recommended here - TMNA. That proved to be a total disaster financially. I bought well over 200 000 shares at an average price of more than 30 cents per share. The market now things that this company is an almost total swindle. The pps is about 6 cents. I sold all my shares at a pps not much above 6 cents. I invested the money I received in several stocks. Among these I bought 2,000 shares in this company at a pps of about 4.15 dollars. Percentagewise I am up nicely on those shares. I had almost 44,000 shares at one stage. At the current pps those shares would have had a nice value right now. The way the pps of this stock has been totally incomprehensible to me in view of the information that has been available relative to the business of this company.
bilvo I think I agree with you. At the same time it appears a bit strange that the stock price of a company is up 50% when that company does not get what it seemed entitled to and gives another company a few months to meet its obligations. In such situations the normal action would have been for TIO to ask for forbearance I think and to provide information suggesting that the obligations would be met later.
I find this very interesting. Solomon has acted as a swindler a long time ago it appears. A Swedish group appear to have been deceived losing a double-digit number of dollars and an American investor a few million dollars. I met him personally at a hotel in Oslo after he had talked for hours for the Norwegian investor who not so long ago tried to save something for the shareholders of SIAF.
Dawg I think there is little doubt that TIO "is doing business" but how big that business is is the central question. Fraudulent companies can be doing business but the business may be a low fraction of what has been claimed. This was the case of the Chinese company CCME which was also on NASDAQ. My guess now is that this goes for TIO too, but only time will show.
Dawg What was suposed to happen before the end of June was not a corporate measure but a measure by a different entity - a go-ahead for TMNA receiving several tens of percent of the shares of TIO based on my understanding of the situation,
Johnstown You ignore that we are now past a crucial deadline. I see no information regarding what seems not to have happened when it comes to TMNA shareholders getting a lot of shares in TIO.
aandt I notice that the number of shares traded in TIO has come down to much lower numbers that in the past. But the pps seems fairly stable. Hence there cannot be much selling pressure these days.
sparty I think the point is to move management to keep us informed as well as possible IN A REAL WAY.
RD I suggest you communicate this to the person you sent a pretty aggressive message to as the background for your message.
RD "And he should be careful not to piss us off any further by sending us AI-generated replies." Thanks! I see your point. The reply lacked specification.
RD How do you kow that Zhang is the culprit here and not people in China?
modes I feel the same way. But to me a stock price of let's say 30 cents (which was a reality for some minutes a few years ago) would be a step ahead too.
I generally support these guidelines. I will just mention one: "Links to promotion content must include free, informative and actionable content i.e. not behind a paywall or requires registration" I find it very irritating when it is impossible for me to read the contents of the link.
'
Sincerely,
Asbjorn Lauvstad (I have myself written more than 17,000 posts even though I am a Norwegian living in Norway)
Perfectson "Doubtful there is much naked shorting going on with only 10% short interest .
Anyone speaking about naked shorting is just creating strawmans to distract from what’s really going on."
My impression is that y the contention is that heavy naked shorting happened in the years before this year, The forerunner of the current Tingo Group seemed to have dismal prospects based on the losses. If really big money was to be made recently it would be through naked shorting. But you may be right that this is just a strawman. I don't know.
It seems pretty clear to me that there have been lies presented by the company. But some scams are not total scams. That was the case with the Chinese NASDAQ scam CCME. Institutions were taken in. There was a real business but it was much smaller than claimed, My guess is that this is the case with TMNA and TIO as well.
Perfectson If there is a short interest that matters it is naked. The other short interest is so limited that it does not matter much. It is less than 10% of the O/S.