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I haven't seen one yet. But, we'll probably all have to make adjustments as fossil fuels become more scarce.
The China/India thing.....
Wow that IS impressive. Stock prices follow earnings?
Gasoline has not reached the summer peak and that's probably what matters most to the market. Next summer? Ouch.
Yep, they're shooting the generals one by one. Ndx had a big shakeout in Aug., looks like that cleared the decks for this outperformance.
Nikkei chart
Ndx leading higher is bullish.
10 year bond yield 3.99. Dow yield 2.18.
Dow/Ndx ratio. Somethings got to give.
I added half my remaining cash to long Dow position at 9817. (GULP)
An Oil Price-Induced Recession: Watch Asian Equity Markets
http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20041014.GIF
We can draw a line between two points but it is not a valid trendline w/o a minimum of three points of contact.
My point is we are both posting visualized representations of opinion untill more data is recieved. When that data is recieved there is no point in posting the obvious as the move is done and there for all to see.
Rut chart looks bullish. Breakout of the large bull flag, pullback to support. Could have a tight range symmetrical triangle form while the bulls regain their resolve.
He updates weekly & has a decent chart series. Gotta go now, been on this thing too long.
Have a good weekend Steve.
I think we'll know by early Nov. whether this bull is done or not. I'm banking on seasonal strength and that's why it may not happen.
Thats not my chart. Try here.
http://pw1.netcom.com/~claudb/
Technically, NDX looks a whole lot better than the Dow. I wonder if the past two ST corrections were bull flags.
Since the Dow held up better in Aug. perhaps it's just the final selloff before the markets can move higher in unison. Could also be institutional tax loss selling before Oct 30 fiscal year end. I imagine they're piled up in the super large caps.
Click in the RH corner to enlarge.
http://pw1.netcom.com/~claudb/Composite.gif
I'm hoping Mon. is up to test 10,000. Should know by the futures. We've had a series of flags & this one closed at the bottom.
No, they won't update. I'm saving them to my pictures, annotating, then uploading to msn personal webspace. Periodically I have to clean them out or I run out of space. 3Meg limit. Charts are fuzzy today for some reason.
Another measurement of risk tolerance.
Schaeffer on Charts: Staying Off Drugs
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/bernie_observations.aspx?click=home&cat=soc&pag...
I think...some up...a final flush...a break of the upper trendline...and new highs for all major indexes in the seasonally strong early January. The Dow's nearly year long decline looks like a huge bull flag consolidation.
Very cautious here on the NDX because as you stated it's not in line with the other indexes. Particularly the safer Dow.
Sorry the first couple charts are fuzzy. I think it's because I uploaded to much material at one time. Live and learn.
I'm building a Dow position based on what it's done in the past in the same configuration. Currently 146/200 long. 27% cash.
Indu/Vxo
Nope, it's in mid-range. That would not preclude a good sized bounce tho. Note Feb. and Apr bounces where coming off the signal line it bounced back to 105 before dropping to the lower signal line.
Dow is the weak sister. Anybody have a guess as to why? Weakness vs SPX has been persistent all year.
Nice save. I got whipsawed to death on my 10% rule.
Stop on Dow below 9950. I took the trade because I think 10000 will hold on a test.
Added long Dow and Juno to earlier buys. Hedged the whole jellowy mess with a Mid short. How's that for indecision?
Dude, don't wear 'em so tight!
A measurement of investor willingness to take risk, the Ndx/Dow ratio.
Just executed a small trade. Long 20/200 NDX @1445 And SPX 20/200 Long @1129. Bond market closes early today and I will add a short soon.
Well, you pretty well already got the idea there. Pharmas/Con.Non Cyc. weakness. Basic Materials one of the strong sectors.
Rydex Basic Materials Fund Holdings
As of: 10/08/04
Name Symbol % of Fund
1 DUPONT EI DE NEMOURS DD 4.7621619
2 DOW CHEMICAL DOW 3.6927486
3 PHELPS DODGE PD 3.0081910
4 PPG INDUSTRIES PPG 2.8444108
5 GEORGIA-PACIFIC CORP GP 2.6928910
6 INTERNATIONAL PAPER IP 2.6730994
7 UNITED STATES STEEL CORP X 2.3547405
8 ECOLAB INC ECL 2.2786422
9 ALCOA INC. AA 2.2038867
10 SIGMA ALDRICH CORP SIAL 2.0709449
11 SEALED AIR CORP SEE 1.9799028
12 PACTIV CORPORATION PTV 1.9709906
13 ENGELHARD CORP EC 1.9688908
14 OWENS-ILLINOIS INC OI 1.7932466
15 ROHM & HAAS CO. ROH 1.7758834
16 POTLATCH CORP PCH 1.7362739
17 NEWMONT MINING NEM 1.6828509
18 MASSEY ENERGY MEE 1.6805177
19 LOUISIANA PACIFIC LPX 1.5724755
20 CONSOL ENERGY CNX 1.4502172
21 MONSANTO CO MON 1.4276726
22 EASTMAN CHEMICAL COMP EMN 1.4036422
23 OM GROUP INC. OMG 1.3910558
24 LAFARGE NORTH AMERICA IN LAF 1.3323952
25 WEYERHAEUSER CO WY 1.2744972
26 PRAXAIR, INC. PX 1.2478968
27 LUBRIZOL CORP LZ 1.2423488
28 SOUTHERN PERU COPPER COR PCU 1.2039944
29 RPM INC RPM 1.1997000
30 AIR PRODUCTS AND CHEMICA APD 1.1962186
31 INTERNATIONAL STEEL GROU ISG 1.1370032
32 VULCAN MATERIALS CO VMC 1.1320871
33 GLAMIS GOLD LTD GLG 1.1259233
34 NUCOR CORP NUE 1.1077892
35 AGRIUM, INC. AGU 1.0591228
36 ALCAN ALUMINIUM CAD AL 1.0494921
37 GEORGIA GULF GGC 1.0316076
38 RIO TINTO ADR RTP 1.0057160
39 AGNICO EAGLE MINES, LTD. AEM 0.9883548
40 SONOCO PRODUCTS CO SON 0.9590147
41 BEMIS INC BMS 0.9404324
42 EAGLE MATERIALS INC. EXP 0.8846338
43 INCO LTD. N 0.8573406
44 WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES WOR 0.8294400
45 HEADWATERS INC HDWR 0.8092994
46 VALSPAR CORP VAL 0.8090539
47 AIRGAS INC ARG 0.8083111
48 LYONDELL CHEMICAL COMPAN LYO 0.7492577
49 CROMPTON CORPORATION CK 0.7453365
50 APTARGROUP ATR 0.7394775
51 ALBEMARLE CORP ALB 0.7204367
52 PACKAGING CORP AMER PKG 0.7146252
53 IMC GLOBAL INC IGL 0.7030018
54 MINERALS TECHNOLOGIES IN MTX 0.7004269
55 TEXAS INDUSTRIES INC TXI 0.6936119
56 FREEPORT-MCMORAN COPPER FCX 0.6535923
57 CABOT CORPORATION CBT 0.5991413
58 MEADWESTVACO CORP MWV 0.5838419
59 SENSIENT TECHNOLOGIES CO SXT 0.5720148
60 QUANEX CORP. NX 0.5582020
61 MILLENNIUM CHEMICALS INC MCH 0.5576540
62 PEABODY ENERGY CORP BTU 0.5431203
63 W.R.GRACE & CO. GRA 0.5401012
64 WAUSAU-MOSINEE PAPER COR WPP 0.5283340
65 LONGVIEW FIBRE LFB 0.5268517
66 FULLER (HB) FUL 0.4987390
67 POLYONE POL 0.4975914
68 FLORIDA ROCK INDUSTRIES FRK 0.4901685
69 MACDERMID INC MRD 0.4868601
70 INTL FLAVORS AND FRAGRAN IFF 0.4633055
71 SMURFIT STONE CONTAINER SSCC 0.4611580
72 SCHULMAN INC SHLM 0.4517769
73 CEMEX SE -SPONS ADR PART CX 0.4508876
74 RTI INTERNATIONAL METALS RTI 0.4469958
75 ARCH CHEMICALS INC. ARJ 0.4461030
76 ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES I ATI 0.4429345
77 FERRO CORP FOE 0.4397059
78 CARAUSTAR INDUSTRIES CSAR 0.4188102
79 ROCK-TENN CO., CL.A RKT 0.4182355
80 SCHWEITZER-MAUDUIT SWM 0.4103473
81 GLATFELTER P H CO GLT 0.4021689
82 CHESAPEAKE CORP CSK 0.4003146
83 RYERSON TULL, INC. RT 0.3999311
84 STEEL TECHNOLOGIES INC STTX 0.3951760
85 CAMBREX CORP CBM 0.3927580
86 BRUSH ENGINEERED MATERIA BW 0.3847194
87 DELTIC TIMBER COR DEL 0.3667342
88 BUCKEYE TECHNOLOGIES INC BKI 0.3638115
89 MYERS INDUSTRIES MYE 0.3201695
90 POPE & TALBOT INC POP 0.2979988
91 WELLMAN INC WLM 0.2912594
92 OMNOVA SOLUTIONS INC OMN 0.2716296
93 QUAKER CHEMICAL KWR 0.2588834
94 BALL CORP. BLL 0.2519175
95 MATERIAL SCIENCES CORP MSC 0.2477348
96 IMCO RECYCLING INC IMR 0.2358592
97 COMMONWEALTH INDUSTRIES CMIN 0.2259712
98 PENFORD CORP PENX 0.2070410
99 CASTLE (A.M.) & CO CAS 0.1985681
100 TEMPLE-INLAND INC. TIN 0.1876968
100.00000%
Trades were 200%. Here's a visualization.
Hope so. I got steamrollered by da bulls.
After the loss I'm up 15.8% YTD, exactly where I was at the end of March. My summer of discontent and churn <ng>.
I'm in today, in cash, & waiting to see the reaction to the employment report. Funny thing I'm seeing in the sectors is consumer oriented are weak while business oriented sectors are strong. I'll put up some charts later that display this. Too early in the AM now, I need some coffee.....
Unwinding the short at AM pricing. 10% stop hit yesterday. Turned out to be a bad trade & not going to let it run.