Looking for my next Forex trade
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Hope they help, Jav.
And a ton of trading opportunities. Literally, we should be able to open up a chart and get the top down wave count and start trading it almost immediately on the lower time frames any given day. There's always a trade somewhere.
Ok gang, I've now created a primary Sticky post that appears at the top of the list for the H.O.T. trading system. That will keep me from having to go back and post the link over and over for the Dropbox account. So any new videos or information that I add will assume that you go back to the sticky post to get the Dropbox link from here on out. Should make it much easier for folks to find everything.
H.O.T Trading System
I'm creating this post so I can make a primary Sticky post so that folks interested will only have to reference this one sticky post to get to all of the information concerning the H.O.T Trading System I've developed as opposed to having to dig through previous posts on the board.
All of the info is contained in a Dropbox account. Start with the general Introduction video and work your way down from there. The detailed training videos start with 1 and go from there.
Dropbox account link...
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/yrtalr0e0df9qn4/AADSRJfZlHk1BwDhYSMYvWeia?dl=0
One thing to also keep in mind Qui is how many smaller waves can occur in a typical 5 wave count.
Each single wave on a larger time frame is 5 waves on a smaller time frame. So technically, you have 5 waves on the larger time frame times 5 waves each...that gives you a total of 25 waves to count on a lower time frame of one degree. And the further down you drop, the more waves you have to count, multiplying by 5 each time.
So a daily 5 wave has 5 waves in it.
The 4 hour chart of the same pair has 25 waves.
The hourly chart has 25 x 5 = 125 waves.
The 15 minute chart has 125 x 5 = 625 waves.
So a daily 5 wave count has, at minimum, 625 smaller waves that it's made up of on a 15 minute chart.
Needless to say, that's why there are a ton of trading opportunities on any given day regardless of where we are on the larger time frames.
Yes, there's no hard-set rule to channel formation. That's why the top down method is absolutely necessary to make sure we get an accurate count all the way across the board.
The best answer to your question Qui is to watch the TDI videos that I started making today. A picture is worth a thousand words.
As I point out in the video, it doesn't really matter what color you use for numbering...I only change the color to differentiate between a major count and a minor count on a particular time frame.
The videos will help substantially in identifying waves.
Yep, I'm gonna probably create a sticky for the main HOT Dropbox account as a series rather than just for one video. As moderators, we only get to post one sticky on each board so we have to make it count.
TDI Wave Counting Video Part 2
2nd video completed now. It's labeled as "6-TDI Wave Counting Part 2" in the dropbox account.
Dropbox link again here...
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/yrtalr0e0df9qn4/AADSRJfZlHk1BwDhYSMYvWeia?dl=0
TDI Wave Counting Introduction Video
First video on TDI wave counting is now complete and ready for viewing on the Dropbox account. It's labeled as "5-TDI Wave Counting Introduction".
This one starts at the beginning and covers all the basics so even if you've been following along on the board, please spend the time to watch the intro video. Some of it may be things you already know but it's a good refresher.
Here's the Dropbox link again....
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/yrtalr0e0df9qn4/AADSRJfZlHk1BwDhYSMYvWeia?dl=0
You have the labeling correct Heavy. Here's a shot of the NU 30 minute that I've had for quite some time now. I think I was working with Kirby when I posted the chart showing the Wave 4 bottom coming up a few days ago.
So the first chart is a zoomed out shot of the NU 30 minute. After that, I have a zoomed in shot of the chart...look carefully at the wave count AFTER the wave 5 peak hit. Wave 4 in the new count was, once again, the best entry to take with little to no drawdown.
Zoomed in chart showing detailed Wave count after 5th wave...
Heck Jav, I have to put posties on my bathroom mirror too, but not for trading tips.
I have to put the posties on the mirror because half the time when I walk into the bathroom, I forget what I came in there for and the posties remind me to go pee...LOL!
That's it exactly Heavy. Basically, Wave 5 on the TDI is equal to Wave 3 or Wave C on price action...both of which are typically the longest and strongest waves. That's why we primarily want to shoot for Wave 4 to 5 plays only.
Of course, I'm just as guilty as anyone....trying to catch Wave 2 bottoms or tops...which I guess is fine...but I'm finding that had I just waited for Wave 4 to show up, I would pretty much eliminate the drawdown. I'd get fewer trades but more bang for my buck.
The 1 and 2 movements that occur after Wave 5 has completed on the TDI are equal to Waves 4 and 5 on price action.
That's right Jav. Sometimes the 5th wave will bobble a bit and might even still make a new low on the TDI if the little minor waves haven't quite worked themselves out yet. But basically, once you get a substantial turn back the other way on the TDI, then I start looking for a 61.8 return hit.
Yep, that's what we're doing Jav. If I was only feeding you a fish, I would just post entries and exits with no explanation at all...LOL!
The details behind the method are going to make you guys master fisherman.
LOL! No problem, Jav. I answered it for you. But I think it would be good for you to post the response you gave me as a PM to the board. The clock example was very good.
No, the TDI wave structure is actually quite different than counting waves on the TDI, Jav. The rules we have in EW theory really don't apply at all when counting TDI waves.
There are some basic things I look for, such as Wave 2 coming back up to at least the 61.8 fib retrace of the length of TDI Wave 1, for example. I've found that if I wait on that 61.8 fib retrace of the TDI wave to complete, then I stand a much better chance of getting the lower time frame count completed more accurately.
Here's a chart example. This is the AU hourly chart. I just randomly picked out a clear 5 wave TDI move to the downside. What I normally expect to see is a minimum movement on the TDI back up to AT LEAST the 61.8 fib retrace based on a measured move of the 1st wave down. Notice that the 2nd wave back up really doesn't show any type of wave count...it's practically straight up. But because it got back to at least the 61.8 fib retrace of the first TDI wave down, it qualifies as a potential marker to start looking for a reversal back to the downside. At that point, watching the lower time frames like the 30 minute or 15 minute would give more detailed clues as to whether or not it's ready to turn.
I do need to mention though that just because the TDI makes it back to the 61.8, that doesn't mean it's ready to fall back again. The 61.8 is more of a "minimum" marker I look for...sort of a "list" criteria that I want to see. The TDI could easily continue up to the 78.6, 88.6 or even match the previous peak of the first TDI down.
AU Hourly Chart...
What I always try to do Jav is pair what I see on one time frame with another time frame.
For example...if I see a pair that hits a Wave 4 completion peak on a given time frame, does that actually mark a final Wave 4 top or is there a strong possibility that it will "bobble" at the top before finally causing the pair to fall?
The answer comes in the lower time frames. If I'm monitoring a possible Wave 4 peak on a 4 hour chart, for example, then I find I need to drop to the hourly chart to see if things look completed there as well. If the hourly chart only shows a 5th wave peak topside as the 4 hour chart is completing what looks like a 4th wave peak, then I can assume that the hourly chart will likely drop back a bit and then make another run up that could likely form an even higher high in price before it eventually moves down. So we could say that the hourly chart needs to have at least a 1-2 movement in a new channel in addition to the 5 waves up we've already counted.
But if I look at the hourly chart and see that not only has the 5th wave been hit but I have an initial Wave 1 back and then another Wave 2 up, I can more easily assume that the 4th wave peak on the 4 hour chart may very well be the final top.
The top-down approach with TDI wave counting is absolutely essential to timing entries.
Wave 5 isn't the top most of the time...that's the key to counting. Tops typically occur at either Wave 2 or Wave 4 of the next series...more often Wave 2 of the new count.
So when you see a Wave 5 peak formed, look for an initial pullback away from there and then a move right back to near the TDI wave 5 high...that most often forms a final top. But there are times when it's Wave 4 in the new series that forms the final top. So you may actually see a 1-2-3-4-5 and then a 1-2-3-4 before the final high is reached on price.
5 Waves up or down just determines the primary sequence. But the 2nd wave of the new series is what forms the divergence that we normally look for...negative divergence for tops and positive divergence for bottoms.
The general rules are as follows:
(1) Waves 2 and 4 form tops and bottoms most of the time.
(2) Waves 1 and 3 are the ones that "break formation"...in other words, they signify a shift in the previous TDI channels.
(3) Wave 3 normally displays the first sign of high volume candles.
(4) Wave 4 to 5 is ALWAYS (no exceptions) the best wave count to play when counting TDI waves.
AU Chart Updates
No problem Qui. The hourly shows that we completed Wave 3 down or very near it, although we haven't seen a 1-2 movement back the other way to confirm any type of bottom so it can still fall further.
On the AU 4 hour chart, it shows a clear Wave 3 movement down in a larger Wave 3 that's still in progress. Inside that 4 hour larger 3rd wave, we still need to see Wave 4 back up and then 5 down. Even then, that will only complete the larger 3rd wave down. So we'll still see a larger 4 hour Wave 4 back up...that's when the crap is really gonna hit the fan. When that larger Wave 4 completes, then the bigger 5th wave down is gonna hit and AU is gonna fall completely apart.
Probably gonna take several days to run to completion but when it does, EA will be back up towards the highs and AU will be well below 0.70 and possibly back down to as low as 0.67 at the larger FE 100 level.
So the FE 61.8 level on AU based on the daily chart at 0.6913 should be a piece of cake.
So here's the bottom line...on the hourly chart, once AU peaks at this small Wave 4 movement back up in the Wave 3 movement, that will likely be THE high for quite a while. That high should happen fairly quickly, within a couple of days. After that, I expect nothing but downside.
AU hourly chart first and then 4 hour chart...
I've got more tips and tricks to the TDI wave counting process coming this weekend that will hopefully help in identifying the wave counts. Getting the starting points right is the key to finding the right count.
Tonight though is a rest night for me. My wife and I are going to go out and enjoy a nice meal out of town for the evening as we partake of some of the profits gained from the spoils of the Forex war this month...LOL!
Everybody have a great weekend!
Yes, that's best way to do it. Top down TDI wave counting is hugely valuable as long as we still keep the higher time frames in perspective when we're counting the lower ones. It's easy to get lost on the lower time frames if you're not careful.
If I'm trading a 4 hour chart TDI count, for example, I'll drop down to the hourly and maybe even the 15 minute charts to get a more detailed count. But I try to never lose sight of the 4 hour chart, which has the primary count and is the one in control.
The higher time frame NJ levels aren't too bad on counting waves but the lower time frames, even the 4 hour, are a mess Heavy. I've decided against trying to trade NJ with the TDI wave count except maybe on a swing trade basis. Just my thoughts...
It's labeled as Video #1-Key Trade Levels.
I have all of that covered in the training videos I've already done, Qui. The 1st video goes through the details on the strat tester, including speed adjustments.
Basically, you have a slide in the lower left of the strat tester box that slows down as you move it to the left.
It's always good to have a healthy fear of news. We often recommend cleanup up trades or staying out of trades until after news hits just in case. But if you're working from the larger time frames, the news will have less impact on what you're doing.
Most longer term swing traders, for example, pay very little attention if any to the news because they're dealing with daily, weekly, and monthly charts.
Tickettoride is an example of that. He's one of the moderators on the board here and he plays pretty much only long term charts, weekly if I remember correctly. So we don't see a lot of him...but he is a very sharp trader for sure.
Moderators for any IHUB board have the ability to go back and remove unneeded or unwanted posts for any reason. It's actually pretty easy to do. It gives us the ability mainly to get rid of any spam posts like the penny stock crowd that visits us from time to time hawking their wares but it also comes in handy for cleaning up duplicate posts that somehow seem to be a part of the IHUB system.
I've often found Kirby that news accompanies key patterns in price and wave counts. The big money just uses the news as a catalyst to take it the direction they wanted it to go anyway.
When the wave counts are set up for a run up or down, the markets are typically going to take it that way no matter what the news is. Have you ever noticed that there are many times when news hits that seems to be really bad but the markets go up instead? Or when news is really bad and the market rallies? That's because the real money already had things planned out which way they want it to go...which makes the news more myth than reality. That's a key component of Elliott Wave theory thinking...news doesn't really move the market more than for a short period of time...the market moves the market.
The whole idea behind that is that when you look at a chart, you're not really looking at price action...you're looking at human psychology. Why? Because human beings are behind the market at every turn. Even when the trading is done by automated trading systems like HFT's (high frequency trading), the algorithms that are the base for those automated systems are written by human beings. So really you're looking at human sentiment in the charts, not price action.
So instead of traders, we're really psychologists trying to get into the mind of a patient...namely, the big money boys.
No biggie...losses are part of doing business...they come with the territory. Plus, the losses were from stupidity on my part rather than just logical trades that went bad. Had I been paying attention, there would be no loss and a nice gain to boot. Sometimes I need a kick in the butt I guess.
I get those double or triple message postings sometimes...no problem. I cleaned em up for you.
I'll trade percentages with you Qui...I was down 5% for the week in the public account...LOL!
Too many impatient mistakes this week in the public account on my part. Too early entries, taking profits too quickly on some items, skipping obvious Wave 4 to 5 entries like the NU long that would have netted me over 100 easy pips...stuff like that.
Good reminder for me to stick to the game plan.
Any time frame at all Jav but the easiest to start with would probably be something large like the 4 hour. The waves tend to be smoother there. But if you just want something quick, the 15 minute will do for basic practice. The only disadvantage on the smaller time frames in the simulator is that you can't reference other time frames to get a larger wave count to go along with what you're seeing.
Hey Kirby, I hope you mean AU...LOL! I got into EU way too early a while back and I'm still waiting on it to develop. AU worked out nicely though...still more to come next week on AU if the waves have anything to say about it.
Even 2 to 3% a week is still 10% a month Qui...that's phenomenal from a gains perspective compared to anything else you can invest in...at least from a legal perspective...LOL!
Added EU long at 1.0932. TP on both orders now set for 1.1280.
The TDI trendline breakout and retest is the best option I've found for determining Wave 2 pullbacks, especially when there are that many points of contact on the trendline. They're gonna wait till this 4 hour candle closes in a few minutes to wrap things up is my guess. After that, we're likely to see it base.
I'm probably going to add an EU long right after the 4 hour candle closes here in a few minutes anyway since this trend line retest on price and the TDI coincide plus it's a key bull candle retest.
Gotta love the wave predictions...LOL! Didn't go as high as I expected but it sure did sell today.
"Tomorrow during regular market hours should be an intense selling day for AU."
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=120786265&txt2find=intense
Closed out my much-too-early AU and NU shorts here for a few pips.
Keep in mind gang this is only Wave 3 today...just imagine how much fun it's going to be when we get a retrace and Wave 4 sets up...LOL!
Ahhh, the joys of charting...gotta love it!
Absolutely. But staring at the charts isn't the same as training. One of the first things I did when I started charting was I took a job as a moderator on the Charts are Cooool board annotating charts for anyone and everyone who asked...mostly penny stocks...and it was all for free of course. I didn't have much experience at that point in time...only a year or so. But it gave me the opportunity not to just look at the chart but to analyze it to see what the potential was...where could it possibly go from where it was then? Learning to see the potential for what it could do rather than just see it where it was is what took me down the road to finally being able to understand price action.
That simulator is like gold...nothing beats it. Looking at a historical chart has value for sure...but you can already see everything and you can probably come up with a million reasons why it went where it did, why it bounced at a certain spot, etc.
But watching it unfold in front of you with no idea of where it's headed next forces you into analysis mode...that's where you really get down to the nuts and bolts of price action...and counting the TDI waves.
Don't use anything on the charts but a fib tool (both fib retrace and FE) and the TDI. No moving averages, no special indicators...keep it barebones.
Once you do that, you're eyes will really open up to the possibilities.