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Refer to previous post.
It's a waste of time to reiterate the obvious.
Stay short for the remainder of the month; I dare ya!
It would be most excellent if Anavex issued its 12-wk data in a Monday morning PR. Now wouldn’t that cut the criminal cartel off at the knees. Because, had Dr M presented the data at the conference, the cartel ( AF, MD and the like) would have had all weekend to prepare their hit pieces. A Monday morning PR would certainly blindside them.
Wishful thinking, I know.
Being Friday, I'll drink to that!
Since today is not a run-up day prior to the conference, then that should bode well for Monday, IF the news meets/exceeds expectations. i.e. the "sell the news" should be delayed or lessened. IMO
...but, I'm also not ruling out the possibility of a quick downward head fake on Monday either...combination of sell the news and continued manipulation. Ultimately, however, it goes higher!
The game changes each time. Don't expect it to be the same as CTAD in Nov... the dynamics are much different.
??? I thought you said you wanted to buy more AVXL in the $5s once your pennies hit? I'm confused (but that's not uncommon).
Good for you! So why wait? Take your profit and add AVXL if that's what you're thinking to do.
Unless it's PPCH, you might be waiting awhile. Perhaps sell the penny now, buy more AVXL, and then repurchase your penny with AVXL proceeds?
The Dr. said 12-wk to be provided in Q1, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's provided tomorrow.
Good for you! Should see volume picking up soon as the share grab commences. Expect 1.4M by EOD.
Manipulators are trying to shake shares loose... scaring retail holders to sell and taking out stop-loss orders. This will run up into the close... stay tuned!
And I would bet that most of those PUTS are just for insurance against a long position.
Let's see if the momentary spike to $5.60 is a precursor to where this stock ends up EOD...
As mentioned before... I believe there is a conference embargo rule against releasing specific data prior to the conference (a la CTAD). So it doesn't surprise me that we're not hearing about the 12-wk data prior. I expect it to be presented at the conference.
Re: Alzheimer's disease is caused by high levels of beta-amyloid in the brain.
I think this is being proven incorrect... it is a symptom!
Yeah, sorry... I meant it as "We ALL should get used to it"
Pure manipulation when a stock is down 7% after it was up 7% on good news. Get used to it.
Tell me how these other biotech's (e.g. XOMA) have 25% increases, on any given day, on no news and AVXL can't hold a 5% gain on great news?
Don't forget, Dr. M is a shareholder too. It's human nature to want to protect one's own investment, within the confines of corporate strategy.
Perhaps there is an information embargo, as was with CTAD, and they cannot release any 12-wk data prior to the conference presentation???
According to stochastics, oversold at $4.80...
If it's GREEN it must be TUESDAY! Right Josh?
We can only hope that the criminals have moved on...
I believe the news will certainly be good and the stock price will rise. What's uncertain is...
1. How many longs will take quick profits at $6 or $8?
2. Will AF and crooked hedgies make another attack?
I agree with your assessment. Having the 2-73 patent is key, not the Plus patent. Only AVXL could produce/allow the combo pill because they own the 2-73 patent.
Thanks for the Patent link. In my search, I found the Non-final Rejection letter, which suggests that the combination of 2-73 and donepezil might not be patentable, because it is an "obvious" application to one knowledgeable in the art. So, it appears the combo patent is not a certainty.
Hitting some stop-loss orders perhaps?
Much different scenario this time, don't ya think? Great AVXL 12-wk data likely to be provided, which will make AXON's presentation appear rather meek. We should see AVXL's SP up big, while AXON's sells off.
Well, if I were AXON, I certainly wouldn't want to follow AVXL's presentation. LOL!
They all sound like friends of attorney Wong! LOL!
Looks like a stock that's waiting for good news to arrive...
I concur. fyi, more recent info (Dec 2015)...
Solanezumab is the most advanced drug in Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's disease program and investors should pay attention to whether Eli Lilly's management offers up an update on solanezumab's ongoing phase 3 trial because solanezumab, which binds to and destroys amyloid plaque buildups thought to be a cause of Alzheimer's disease, has had its share of setbacks in the past, including late stage trial failures.
After solanezumab failed to outperform placebo in boosting cognition in previous phase 3 studies, Eli Lilly conducted a post-hoc analysis that determined that solanezumab may work in mild to moderate cases of Alzheimer's disease.
That revelation led to the company designing its current phase 3 trial to include 2,100 patients who score between 20 and 26 at baseline on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), a cognitive impairment test. For comparison, patients in solanezumab's prior failed studies were allowed to participate if they scored between 16 and 26 on the MMSE.
We won't find out whether narrowing the patient population down in this manner will allow solanezumab to demonstrate cognitive benefits this time around until next year, but data presented earlier this year was mixed.
At the 28-week mark, patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease who participated in previous trials and newly enrolled patients were evaluated and Eli Lilly found that the group that began taking solanezumab more recently hadn't caught up to the prior group of solanezumab patients on cognition and brain function -- a finding that may indicate solanezumab alters disease progression, rather than simply treats the symptoms of the disease.
However, Eli Lilly also reported that solanezumab patients had yet to demonstrate improvement in cognition and function versus placebo and if that continues throughout the study, then it could derail solanezumab's chances for approval.
Racing ahead
If Eli Lilly's phase 3 data is solid, it could give it an edge in reaching the market over Biogen's Alzheimer's drug, BIIB-037 (aducanumab), which also targets beta amyloid plaques.
Earlier this year, Biogen reported that 166 aducanumab patients were outperforming placebo on cognition after one year in a phase 1b trial and that first-in-class finding caused Biogen's shares to soar.
However, enthusiasm for Biogen slipped after investors realized the benefit was achieved on the highest 10 mg dose of the drug and that the 10 mg dose was associated with worrisome adverse events, including brain swelling.
In an attempt to find a safer but equally efficacious dose, Biogen tested a 6 mg dose that, unfortunately, failed to produce the same benefit as the 10 mg version.
Biogen's trial remains ongoing and as data matures anything could happen, including positive efficacy for lower doses, but we won't get a definitive answer on aducanumab's efficacy and safety until 2018 and that means that Eli Lilly has a chance for a multi-year head start in this market.
Foolworthy takeaway
Because a staggering 99% of Alzheimer's drugs entering human trials have failed, the bar is set pretty high for both Eli Lilly and Biogen. However, if Eli Lilly can overcome those odds and finally prove that solanezumab works, it could win FDA approval for solanezumab in 2017, and if so, solanezumab could be in the pole position to catch a big chunk of what industry watchers believe will be a megabillion-dollar market. For that reason alone, investors might want to tune into Eli Lilly's presentation next week.
I thought only PFE stopped their trials.
July 22, 2015 (any more recent news?)
Shares of Biogen and Eli Lilly fell Wednesday after highly anticipated updates on the company's Alzheimer's programs.
Both drugs aim to clear amyloid plaque buildups from the brain in an effort to slow Alzheimer's cognitive declines. The drugmakers said Wednesday both showed signs they may do that. Lilly's drug displayed consistently better results the longer patients took its drug, while Biogen's showed it yielded stronger efficacy the higher the dose.
While Biogen called its update encouraging, investors were hoping a closely watched middle dose would significantly clear amyloid plaques from the brain and slow Alzheimer's cognitive declines. In the update Wednesday, it individually succeeded on the first, but didn't show statistical significance on two measures of cognition. The stock was down 4.8 percent in early morning trading. (For a real-time stock quote, click here.)
Lilly shares fell 3.3 percent in early trading. (For a real-time stock quote, click here.)
Overall, Biogen Chief Medical Officer Alfred Sandrock said, the 166-patient trial showed the medicine showed efficacy on both measures over the course of the year, and that it increased the higher the dose.
Read More › CNBC Explains: New Alzheimer's drugs
"The data are completely consistent with and only reinforce what we saw back in March," Biogen Chief Medical Officer Alfred Sandrock said in a telephone conversation, referring to results that drove the company's stock up 11 percent as investors hoped the company was onto a drug that could modify the course of the disease.
Lilly's Alzheimer's drug
Lilly reported data Wednesday from a follow-on study of two of its earlier trials. The drug, solanezumab, had missed its overall goals in those studies, but showed signs of efficacy among patients in the earlier stages of Alzheimer's. Lilly continued testing the medicine on those patients, and in this analysis, switched the patients who had taken placebo onto the drug as well.
Known as a delayed-start analysis, the study compared patients who started 1.5 years later with those taking the drug all along. In the results reported Wednesday, Lilly showed the patients who started later didn't catch up with those taking the drug for longer, but maintained a consistent difference on measures of cognition.
BMO analyst Alex Arfaei, in a note Tuesday, said investors may hope to see the benefit increase over time, and said the stock may decline slightly on the update.
Lilly said the results support the design of its large late-stage study, expected to conclude next year, which may be the basis of filing for regulatory approval.
Drs. Hooper and Ivan, what might you know about Lilly's Alz drug? I've heard rumors from a couple of their employees that it will be successful. Do you share in that opinion? What mechanism does the Lilly drug utilize? Thanks!
I think we're due for a 10% up day, either Friday or Monday... don't you?
I really like seeing all of the distaste back at him...