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You mean K...not M
That could very well be true and I guess I am thinking too far aheah of the Bavi possibilities...or hopeful extended possibilities. I guess my next thought would be if this works as well as I hope....would it be possible if you had a some pretermined dosage of Bavituximab every 5 years or 10...etc just as precaution. My thinking is that many people get diagnosed too late ...but I should be hoping that their Imaging latest developments will be the solution to that (detecting a solid tumor cancer) 1 or 2 years before it can be seen or diagnosed from current standards.
The future looks very promising for Team Peregrine!
Its possible that Bavituximab may be given at a certain stage in ones lifetime whether they have been diagnosed with cancer or not....
its been seen that Chemo allows the Bavi to work properly (faster) but what if Bavi was tested on mice with no cancer cells...? Can you just imagine a trial that exists where the endpoint was OS for mice that was given Bavi vs not given Bavi vs those given Bavi before and after the injection of cancer cells???
A dose of Bavi at 18 years old...or 10 years old... will reduce the chance of solid cancers by 50%....or some variation..... Dr. Gerber and Thorpe and Team Peregrine ... and dont doubt the possibilities
Its just a roll of the dice.......but anyone who jumped into Peregrine at the very beginning was rolling the dice....The law of averages is finally being calculated back in Peregrines favor!
Let The Good Times Toll...
yes...the illusion is real....
Its time to take the shorts for a ride....
Dr. Gerber about to set the story straight and it must be rewarding after spending years in the lab...
GLTA!
I could never afford the game of golf ...and always wanted to start which just may become a reality if Team Peregrine can actually pull into port after 15 years on the open ocean as they get ready to depart again... but this time Team Peregrine may be upgrading their yacht in order to prepare for the boarding of thousands more and a separate cabin just for the press to keep us updated! AF may just try to sneak on board but no laws in the open seas.... so get the plank ready : )
Do I see the BP's squirming in their negotiating chairs hoping to get a call back from Peregrine to schedule another meeting in hopes of joining the ranks of Garnick! Leverage is bullishly turning in Peregrines favor as each news article is released from here on out. Avastin negative news is simply icing on the cake! Better days are ahead for all cancer patients as the standard of care could very well likely include Bavituximab.
I agree... great news! Now what do you think the people are thinking that sold out on Adams previous articles? Adam couldnt just do a complete 360 and go "long"...since that would clearly on show he didnt do any DD on this stock so his next best option? Play it safe with some neutral articles so he can play both sides while PPHM moves up in price. All must realize that he will be back to make money on the next consolidation after a push up.
Peregrine was mentioned again from Brett Chase ... dated Sept 4 2012
http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/biotech-pharma/articles/GILD-NVS-REGN-SLXP-NAVB-PPHM/9/4/2012/id/43701
Brett Chase Brett Chase is a veteran heath care and financial journalist based in Chicago. A former editor at Bloomberg News and Crain’s Chicago Business, he most recently wrote for Portfolio.com.
.. he also wrote the piece last year .. June 29, 2011 talking about Garnick and the future potential of Peregrine that Garnick regarded highly
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/peregrine-pharmaceuticals-bavituximab-robert-garnick-steven/6/29/2011/id/35458
I expect to see new 13G filings soon! too much volume this past month to be simply tossed back and forth with no accumulation.
I agree Realist... $500 Million upfront is the range of total upfront money coming Peregrines way
With Friday and Monday... both being days for big news events and a spike that "could fold them for anyone shorting" this stock. My advice would be close out your short position because it could become quite shocking pre-market by Monday morning.
I like to hear the positive and negative sides of Peregrine but your attacking warrants? The warrants that Peregrine has set aside for Oxford Finance? First please answer that question then we will discuss further... just to me sounds like you are short this stock because I find it hard to believe you are complaining about the warrants that Peregrine has set aside for Oxford Finance.
The first # we can both base our debate on will be the total outstanding shares currently pegged at about 105 Million shares.
Good question... but I'll give my opinion playbook.
1...Peregrine wants to Partner in order to be fully funded for several years to expand upon the Bavi platform which looks to be volume deep ( which is the reasoning behind them initiating all these IST's for multiple solid cancers and multiple trials all at once... they wouldn't do that if they didn't have confidence in the results )
2... They need at least 100 Million for a single Phase III ... but do they want to initiate a single phase III ? I think not... they want to expand this platform vertically... horizontally... and depth. Peregrine needs 300 M for this and they want money on the table in reserve as well. So 100M to do a single ph III ... x 100M for each solid cancer factor and lets keep 100M in the bank at all times.
agree and interesting!... 2 partner talk mentioned ... one for outside the US and one for inside the US. You know what that means??? My figure of 400 M - 1 Billion is on target. If we get the 2 Partners... we'll easily be in the range of 500M for upfront payments combined I believe.
Complete Responses looks like it could outpace any NSCLC treatment the way it sounds -- MOS and CR I think will be the 2 key announcements made this Friday
MOS not reached as of yet.. : )
Public speaking has long been known to be the #1 fear of people... and previous conference calls have been far from perfect.... would everyone say that the change in attitude is part positive data.... but also practice gained from face to face meetings with the many BP's since May. I can guarantee that the selling of the positive trial data to many BP's is clearly helping Peregrine on conference calls as we have all seen....and will see again Monday Sept. 10 at 11 A.M.
Ok Chart Guys... What does your TA say once we hit 3.20
I still say that there are too many inflection points on the horizon, too much news waiting to be unblinded, too much volume that Bavi can hold pertaining to all solid tumors... too much potential within Peregrine as a whole for Bavi, Avid, Imaging, Cotara...and bottom line is there is no bottom line # at this time you can place on a stock of this potential! We've certainly been under-valued for the previous couple years and a case could be made that we should have never dropped below this point in the first place...
so what does this all create? Lots of Giddiness in the air and lets enjoy these moments ... Loofman, do you have a 2nd rocket in those woods of yurs?
A small world it is.... I was just checking out Oxford Finance to see the last couple loans they gave out to see the difference in interest rates and terms and June 2012 a 30M Term Loan went out to Avanir. Avanir was involved with PPHM back in 2003 as this post came up in a google search but I couldn't tell if it just had to do with Cotara or anything to do with Bavi
By the way.... Avanir's rate was 8.95% vs PPHM's 7.95% but PPHM's loan seems much more bullish as they don't need the entire 30M immediately but have access to it
I think I understand... just don't see how many shareholders could afford to purchase $55 pps stock ( even though its worth $110 ) ... if I am understanding the poison pill correctly
true... but we've already come a long way down a dark road and Sept 7. we are going to see the sun rise on Peregrine for the first time!
Its a all coming back to me... I remember you saying this now! : )
Do all poison pills work in this manner? I just find it easier to place a price tag on the company that is the "minimum" we'd have to be bought out for... hmmm, lets say $125 : )
I think we have our new debate... : ) I just really can't see how the poison pill would stay at $11 after a reverse split. In my thinking.... which I've been known to be wrong before : ) is that if the "total shares" were reduced by a multiple of 5... why wouldn't the poison pill $11 be proportionately be affected by a multiple of $5 ..11x5 = $55
All I know is... if the PP is really $11... watch out for a shareholder revolt at that shareholder meeting
I remember before the 1:5 reverse split...the poison pill was set to $11 ... and after the reverse split I believe this should set the poison pill 11x5 = $55
Now I am thinking of it... and I'd be very upset if this company was let go for $55 pps
I agree... because "if" the news is going to be that big which we are all hoping for... then it could be a little frustrating trying to read the board because I certainly don't have the time for what I am reading now but if the board takes off then I know I'll be missing some important posts.
I know I mentioned about a facebook page before.... but I know it would probably be a pain to duplicate all the "INTRO" information that I think everyone sees as the best intro for any stock... atleast for any stock I have seen. Are there any other "intro" fact pages like this for other stocks that anyone has seen?
The downside of a facebook page to attach all the same information is many I'm sure like to remain anonymous... especially the loofman with Tessi May to protect : ) but I'm sure we can all work something out
CC before market open on a Monday is certainly new...! I agree....but looks like this is the new Peregrine and out with the old and in with the new.
Its like Xmas for all the long term shareholders....and dont want to say it but its the same Xmas feeling for many new shorts because they cant do their job unless a stock has volume and we are about to be among the leaders for volume vs total outstanding shares and I may just have to take a day off with all this giddiness around here : )
Lets have a nice peaceful week because we will be tripping over one another in this room once we attract 30x the posts on average here next week.
You want to know what I am liking at this point? The many conferences that are lining up in front of us and when you have the body...you may as well show it off! Watch out Tessi May....
Someone mentioned about selling Cotara to pump money back to Bavi... I say around herethe we keep all our prospects and build the foundation for a bio-powerhouse!
I dont purchase newspapers much anymore...but the break out announcement for Peregrine in the WSJ will be saved for the grandchildren to read because this will be larger than Penicillin.
Here she goes... the next push upward
We close at at or above $3 today... Could anyone have expected this at the beginning of Memorial Day weekend ? Memorial Day to Labor Day...! Peregrine just had a summer growth spurt just in time for football! : )
I'm sure AF is playing both sides and he will always tell you he has been on the right side every dollar we move upward
Boredom we have all gone thru in the past with Peregrine... .sometimes waiting an entire quarter for the next conference call with no news in between. One point ti consider is late breaking presentations can certainly be cancelled but needing to pay a late cancel fee....so I would much rather see an official confirmation PR regarding Gerbers late breaking speech Sept 7! Peregrine has certainly lined up their plate with all major conferences to start spreading the good trial data results from their "gold standard" Ph IIb NSCLC
This looks to be the next phase where Peregrine must present their data to the medical community.... then we wait for a publications .... then when the stage is set properly we will see Bavi hit the mainstream media.
The mainstream media would probably like to see a partner here as well....just brings further validation and minimize the attacks from any shorts.
Have not reached MOS as of yet.....SK did say he would PR if MOS had been reached... so I guess its safe to say we have not reached MOS thru the end of August!
I agree... closer to 500 Million up front payment... My original estimate and will still stand by this estimate: of 400 M - 1 Billion re: due to the fact they are not just doing a phase III repeat of another "gold standard" phase trial but they will be running volume trials ( breast / pancreatic..etc..etc.. ) in order to bring "conclusive" data in line in order not to just go for AA but to have the possibility of Bavi being used across the board in as many indications as they can possibly bring data in for which is the reason they need atleast 400 Million to get this done right!
Big Pharma knows it as well.... whats the worst case scenario? It works for NSCLC and maybe data comes in great for a couple other indications vs great data volume wise across the board for 4/5/6/7/8 out of the top 20 cancers ? My opinion is Partnering is not the problem.... for PH. III NSCLC... the problem is who is willing to allow Peregrine to leap into 1st place and start reigning in the data for across the board cancers. Why wait for great #'s for NSCLC Phase III for another year plus... when they can run the table and really show the strength and potential that Bavi possesses.
I think they could landed a partner by now... but the loan was needed to further bring in a little bit more data by the numbers to really sell the Bavi platform as volume deep... again, this stock has the unbelievable potential of a rise that no other small biotech could even dream of. Its wait and see for now... next up... Sept. 7
Great Post... hope it runs on their site so investors can see how Adam Feurenstein is hiding the truth about Peregrine! They will come around eventually... when their agenda is complete and they can reverse course.
My opinion of TheStreet.com has changed significantly ever since the one sided, agenda pushed articles started appearing and being published regarding Peregrine Pharmaceuticals.
Peregrine is clearly a stock at the starting gate and one to watch very closely... though one must see through the "noise". There are many on the IHUB board (too many names to list and I don't want to leave anyone out!) that break down the overall game plan of Peregrine in a way that makes it easier for the rest of us to see the finish line, even though Peregrine gets held back at times by some spectators with a much different agenda.
TheStreet.com has their latest article out talking about the ATM and dilution of Peregrine? Is this the way they want to help their investors grow their wealth?
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First... this is from TheStreet.com's "about" re: their mission
"Our mission is to provide the most actionable ideas from the world of investing, finance and business in order to break down information barriers, level the playing field and help all individuals and organizations grow their wealth."
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Now ... TheStreet.com quotes this from their latest article:
"The most egregious example I've come across recently was Peregrine, which diluted shareholders by 41% in the most recent fiscal year. A large majority of the 31 million (!!) shares sold by Peregrine were through an opaque ATM facility. Shareholders had no idea Peregrine was selling all this stock unless they read through SEC filings -- something every investor should do but few get around to."
.... Lets analyze:
1) "Egregious" defined: Extraordinary in some bad way.
The more astute example of the use of egrogious is the article itself that TheStreet.com just published for their investors to read! Peregrine and many other small biotechs use of an ATM is needed and required to design trials that will be overwhelmingly convincing to the FDA for approvals once the data is in hand. Further, 104 Million shares is small compared to the many other successful bio tech stocks... but does TheStreet.com analyze and factor that into their publication? No
2) TheStreet.com mission statement:
"to break down information barriers" is purely what they should be attempting to provide to their readers and investors. This is clearly seen starting the latest release of Peregrine's PH IIb NSCLC Median Overall Survival data and more importantly by their latest conference call which clearly gave for the first time the most detailed pathway for success. Why does TheStreet.com ignore and gives no mention to the many details from this conference call? A replay of the conference is what they should have advised all their readers to go do since this did "break down information barriers" ! Instead... TheStreet.com allows articles to be published to further "conceal" information barriers, as if they are on stage doing a magic show where its all about "illusions" and say something over here or put a hand up over there while all along something is happening elsewhere that they want to conceal. This way... once their magic show is done and its too late for their investors to see the truth and a glimpse into the future of Peregrine... it just may be the admission price doubles for their investors to see the real magic of Peregrine as TheStreet.com moves along to "conceal" another company's future instead of "breaking down information barriers" from the start.
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Good luck to all ! Sept. 7 awaits....
Attention...attention... special announcement, Peregrine just announced at their last quarterly conference call the following:
1) hardly no more dilution but depends on # 2
2) 30 Million Debt financing via Avid revenues and Bavi platform to gain leverage in BP talks
3) currently in talks with large BP's...15 face to face meetings with multiple BPs for partnering talks depends on #4
4) PH IIb NSCLC Data update on Sept. 7
... 1 and 2 now complete.... 3 and 4 up next!
positive indicators are increasing.... as well as the share price so don't get caught with your "shorts" down!
Great Post! must see for anyone that doubts AA...and good link that clearly show Accelerated Approval is within Peregrines reach as long as the data continued to trend as positive as they last reported! Sept. 7 will know much more and BP's will be watching closely!
Excellent Post! Supports Advanced Approval and is clearly on the table and up for discussion as all the data matures.... I may have to take a vacation day on quarterly conference calls from now on because the boss doesnt think I will be getting much work completed with all the good news!
Very true Mag! ....but you must understand my hesitation on this particular situation.
I will admit that buy on the rumor and sell on the news may be appropiate for most stocks....and for most people... and for most scenarios but...
1) I believe this is not like "most" stocks...
2) The question...now becomes "when does the news end?" ....the news will continue to trickle until that time when a BP says "shjjt, this data really is historically compelling...or like Garnick said.... so I disagree on selling because the news will continue ....and continue
3) I say if you believe ( I certainly believe) that this will ultimately come down to a buyout whether its 3 months... 6 months... 1 year....or 2 years... I will wait patiently ( heck...most here have waited impatiently for much longer than 2 years
4) I dont think most people realize the strength of the data could be revealed over the next month or two.... and Sept 7 will be only the beginning of the news to be reported...
Volume has been talked about before.... and this news might be one p art of the formula to find out how much volume Bavi and Peregrine can be expected to hold
I agree! One side note with me thinking too far ahead was if Peregrine would possibly establish a dividend... and low and behold the 8-k on the very last contractual agreement it forbids Peregrine from any type of distribution as was mentioned before by...firechief I believe.
They are only concerned with moving one step at a time.. positive end of phase II meeting with the FDA is the next forward looking event that would set up a Phase III trial... ultimately leading us to the promised land! A partnering deal with the big boys...will Garnick be back with the good old boys of Genentech/Roche? Or will a competing BP feel the heat and not want to say ( we were soooo close )....and they get the word from the top and give the go ahead to up their final offer...and I believe that we have about a 10% chance of getting an offer from a BP but will that offer be enough? It may be too early in the game for a complete buyout BUT mark my words.... the price will go up every couple months as the data trickles in!
I agree... 30 Million term loan is promise #1 that SK said he would fulfill. He actually said 20-30 Million loan and follows thru with 30M!
Now this is one less task they need to be concerned with as the BP partnering talks will advance with Peregrine having a slight leverage but after Sept 7 the leverage should significantly sway to team Peregrine.
This is where talks can move fast and I would love to hear the top level execs at any possible partner and how serious they talk about a partnership deal structured around a future buyout of Peregrine. Either way.... Peregrine is "in the money" and I know future royalties are critical but the number that will make headlines first will be the "upfront payment" ....
I say upfront payment will be 400M - 1B ....for partnership and for a complete buyout:
Lets just say the number will be the largest biotech buyout of all time! So I will be happy with that : )
BP's in talks with Peregrine have just lost some leverage in their partnering talks .... pps heading north before the weekend.... will be a nice long weekend!