Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Captain, can you provide outstanding share count increase for the last few days (on a per day basis this week would be great!)?
LOL, agreed!
Agreed. We ought to see at least $5-6 on Tue, if not more!
“Merck would probably be a little more discrete than show up with their executives.”
Good point!
“Any thoughts on the possibility of a multiparty transaction with maybe one buyer concurrent with or followed by licensing or partnerships with other parties?”
I don’t think so. Gets too complicated. And these guys would probably want to get it over with once and for all.
I will take a 20-30B buyout this month! ;)
Although it seems there are no Merck executives on the list. At least the ones listed on Merck’s website as part of their executive leadership team…
Who knows! With Duffy over at Regeneron, they could also be in play. Although realistically they are not as big to make a play but again you never know!
If a buyout does happen in the next few weeks then LP has played this perfectly (not that it matters but some of us have attacked her over the last few months!). Either way, I’d assume they have planned a series of events in close proximity as they have had a lot of time to map this out…especially, with everything they have endured over the years from the short cabal! Let’s see how the next week or two plays out….
Agreed. Also some long time survivors there - Brad!
So everything ought to happen in quick succession (Merck provides buyout offer next week pending shareholder approval at ASCO?) or NWBO releases a series of news/events over the next 3-4 weeks such as BLA acceptance from UK, clinical trial website update, more patents, powerful presentation at ASCO, etc that can hopefully help sustain the share price….and then 100-150% premium?
We will find out either way over the next week or two how things play out (if they go for additional financing then no buyout until one RA at the earliest, I think!)…..
The age group of the executives and the board coupled with no activity on the hiring front continues to indicate a buyout is in the works….just a question of whether it happens before/after RA unless we see significant financing next and/or emergence of hiring activity fairly soon…
Could this culminate into a buyout announcement by Merck at this year’s ASCO? We run up to $10 or so before ASCO and then 100% premium, valuing close to $30B market cap. $25B right away and additional $5B contingent on FDA approval in 12 months…..something along these lines!
It would be interesting to see if any Merck executives are in attendance on May 10!
It might be worthwhile to get confirmation from LL during Q&A that what they are using for combo trial is indeed DCVAX (for the benefit of the naysayers!). And share that recording!
We could see some neurosurgeons with itchy fingers tomorrow morning if there is some leak at AANS later tonight. ;)
I was over in London attending an important neurology conference when the Brexit voting happened a few years ago. It was just eye opening to see how the scientific and medical community came together the next morning when those results were out. It’s a relatively small community and still quite fresh in my mind!
It seems Dr Brem is there too! The response to that tweet is very interesting from Dr Sumera Haque. Her credentials & profile is super intriguing!
Agreed. AANS is not the venue for this. It’s all about neurosurgery there. Although the presentation next week (May 10) can be quite interesting! ;)
The post TLD financing will tell us if a buyout is coming anytime soon. If they do minimal financing/dilution, then buyout in 2023 post one RA is extremely likely. On other hand, if the next round is fairly significant then I doubt anything is in the works and I wouldn’t count on any buyout in 2023.
You still trust him? ;)
LOL, so true!
Great, thanks Sojo!
Thanks Sojo. Didn’t it move 400-500% within 2 business days of TLD? Another interesting thing is that ARMN’s market cap was about the same as ours (around $1B, I think) when the TLD was announced and all of a sudden the market cap jumped to around $5-6B within a few days. I think that’s very likely in our situation as well despite the overall market sentiments we are currently under.
Who knows we may get something next week. Either way, LL is presenting on May 2. Could they release TLD Monday morning before market opens? You don’t want to be short on a weekend for sure!
Thanks Sojo. Didn’t it move 400-500% within 2 business days of TLD? Another interesting thing is that ARMN’s market cap was about the same as ours (around $1B, I think) when the TLD was announced and all of a sudden the market cap jumped to around $5-6B within a few days. I think that’s very likely in our situation as well despite the overall market sentiments we are currently under.
Who knows we may get something next week. Either way, LL is presenting on May 2. Could they release TLD Monday morning before market opens? You don’t want to be short on a weekend for sure!
Sojo, are you able to plot AMRN chart from Friday to Friday (Monday being TLD day)? I’d like to see the percentage move during that week including the day before TLD.
Agreed. I have been invested in this since 2014-2015, lost sight of when exactly. So I do not pay attention to folks that only have a one sided view, particularly on these message boards.
My first purchase was around $3-4 range and saw the stock go all the way in double digits but didn’t sell. I was also not active on this board or any other for that matter until June-July of 2020 when I increased my investment many fold in 30 cent range. That’s when I decided to follow this board and participate in some discussions.
Anyway, I still hold over 500k shares after selling some on the rally earlier this month, and am happy with what I have. I do not plan on adding more shares even if it goes back to 60 cents. My plan is to sell into the rally. If there is no TLD+pub by end of May, then I’d sell everything except maybe keep 50-100k shares for the eventual buyout scenario in 2023 regardless of where the stock is trading at. I do believe June would be brutal with no TLD+pub. Annals of Oncology doesn’t take this long for the peer review process so all this excuse is mind boggling, just do a simple google search. At this point, I’d think they would have likely rejected the publication.
By the way, our science team published 2 articles in Nature (on brain research) last year in less than 9 months! But NWBO is also working on first of a kind publication with complex data and comparison criteria so I give them some benefit of doubt. I’d like to think they are waiting on the final FDA guideline document to be published (which is now expected any day, I think) and/or they are withholding it until LL wraps up her upcoming series of presentations in early to mid May and in the process give them some more time to accrue additional good news on manufacturing (Flaskworks) and BLA. Hopefully, they will release TLD+pub and some of this in a back-to-back fashion around mid to end of May followed by ASCO presentation by MB in early June. Again, all of this theory falls apart if there is no TLD+publication before end of May! Also, if the publication is not out by end of May then it’s certainly not coming in Annals of Oncology as many loyal supporters have speculated here, imo. So let’s wait for a few more weeks to see how things pan out.
Why doesn’t it say we will discuss ph 3 results of DCVAX-L? I do have some doubts we will hear much about ph 3 data here.
If the next PR is anything other than TLD+pub then you got to start worrying. This will be sign of a pump strategy to get through ASM, and there will be no TLD anytime soon. I forecasted this when they released that first compassionate patient PR back in Feb that we were not going to see anything for at least a couple of months. It was so predictable!
Also, if there is no TLD+pub by end of May then you got to start worrying as well. Having said that, things are looking a bit different this time around with ASM and financing requirements around the corner as well as all the upcoming speaking engagements LL is on, but we have been in similar situations over the past year or so.
Never hurts to book some profits as June would be brutal provided there is no TLD and amid the rising interest rate environment.
Right on! All this speculation is non sense at this point and just an exercise to string along retail. ;) If they can’t release publication by end of next month then watch out!
The valuations are going to come down dramatically as the market goes through a turbulent phase with the rising interest rate scenario in the coming months. Raising cash will get increasingly difficult & financing for big deals will be more expensive as well going forward. Also, can’t really value biotech like tech companies. The growth trajectories are very different.
“There is inherent risk in trial results. That’s always there.“
The management ought to be sued in this case for withholding results for so long. LL, KA, and the SAB wouldn’t have supported this approach. Also, why would LL do all of these presentations to build support? At a minimum, NWBO management ought to get UK and EU approvals next year!
However, there is a risk that they take forever to get BLA accepted given their lack of experience and poor execution history. And in that process, there could be quite a bit of dilution!
This will be my last post to you as I don’t have as much free time and energy to engage with you on this board anymore unfortunately but go back and read my posts before making baseless claims! I said one of my family member as well as a friend plans to sell if there was no TLD by end of first quarter, and they did on this upswing. Together we had over 1.2M shares. They bought some shares because of my recommendation, but are now completely out of this investment. But I personally still hold over 500k shares after selling a few last week. I will probably hold onto 50-100k shares a bit long term (2023) with a buyout expectation, if there is no news by end of May. I do believe our share price will likely head back to 52 week low with no news at/before ASCO….Never hurts to book some profit! Should have done that a while back when it was trading at $2! And I will continue to question the management when I have some time whether you like it or not! ;)
Great. Although it seems you are not optimistic that we will get TLD and publication before end of May?
I have also been selling my position on this move and plan to sell bulk of my remaining shares if we do not get TLD+publication by last week of May.
I don’t know if they are holding off releasing the publication strategically until these upcoming LL talks in early to mid May or they have run into some scrutiny/comments from peer reviewers and editors as the turn around of this journal is extremely quick!
My sense is that majority of these upcoming presentations are to bring awareness and support for DCVAX-L ph 3 trial similar to what she did at Mt Sinai, Miami, Utah, Alabama, and other sites in the past. This way, NWBO does not go through what BIIB and SAVA went through recently with backlash from medical & scientific community.
I hoping that we will see TLD towards mid to end of May culminating into a presentation at the expert theater by MB at ASCO. If there is no TLD and publication before ASCO then god save us! ;)
“Be careful tho you will get the B label and no one will want you sitting with them during lunch.”
LOL, understood, but do I care!? ;) Its extremely busy at work and I don’t have much time for this, to be honest.
This is going to be a great case study at one of the top business schools, either way.
Agreed, let’s see how it shakes out in the coming weeks.
PM, my point was they (warrant holders) are selling and sucking retail into buying more while creating hype around upcoming presentations and ASCO. Perhaps I am just being cynical given the experience here over the last couple of years. You can sense desperation on both sides. The next 4-6 weeks will be really critical, so let’s see if the management finally comes through!
Hope you’re right and your days of malnourishment comes to an end soon!
LL has expressed her frustration in the past. If you go back to the University of Alabama (Q&A part) presentation from late 2020, I think….Although her frustration in that session was more directed towards the slowness of FDA…But yeah, it would be interesting to get their unfiltered opinion of LP….I am not sure LL or KA interacts with LG…he is a typical salesman with limited to no understanding of the science and technology landscape…in fact, LP probably keeps him away from LL & KA! ;) They are probably just interacting with LP and MB!
LOL, I will sell majority of my remaining position if there is no TLD + pub by ASCO!!! You don’t have to convince me on that!
Typically they don’t. You eat those costs if you pull out. During the first 12-18 months of COVID, most of the conferences did provide the option to carry forward the credit towards next year. But they are not allowing that anymore. We just went through a similar exercise at one of the big upcoming neuromodulation conferences where we committed too much early on, but decided to cut back recently.
By the way, I have attended AANS multiple times (as an exhibitor) and most of the exhibitors there are medical device companies. I have hardly seen pharmas there so it would be interesting to see if the event on May 2 there is going to be super relevant for us. Although there is a strong line up there where the relevant folks from UCLA, Harvard, Penn, Mt Sinai, and Northwestern are involved in one of those sessions on GBM… It could be more imaging related and talking about clinical trials in general, but no direct reference to DCVAX? Also makes me wonder if we ought to consider NWBO as a typical pharma company or more of a (bio) technology company?
We have seen these pockets of activity before as well. Probably warrant holders? And the volume yesterday returned to normal after the uptick we saw for a few days.
I sold a few on this rally. The lack of commercial activity and all the run around we have received bothers me. No BLA news either. Fingers crossed we get a serious 400-500% surge on TLD and publication we all deserve, otherwise this is going to be a long haul with this management team!
I trust LL, KA, and other clinicians that support this company but unfortunately they do not run the business and have no stake in the day-to-day operations and execution.
Lol, you have been duped by DI/LG, whoever you spoke with….as have countless posters here who have reported in the last year or so!
Don’t fall for another pump, prior to ASM, to enable buy in on their agenda!
Nothing else matters at this point other than TLD & publication! If we do not have this in April or May, then we are likely hitting new 52 week lows during ASCO.
I agree. Manufacturing will not delay TLD release. NWBO team may delay FDA BLA submission if they get such indication from the agency. They typically conduct a pre-BLA meeting where they discuss some of these aspects. I’m hoping that they have had those pre-BLA meetings by now or at the very least scheduled them.
Although I would expect FDA to very accommodating towards us given the unmet need (as long as we present a reasonable roadmap towards scalability).
My bet is they are waiting on final FDA guideline document to be published before they release the TLD & publication, as a show of respect!