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"Zimbabwe discount" is about lawlessness. NWS is one of the lawlessness that requires "Zimbabwe discount".
LOL, It is wishful thinking that investors look at such opinions (that on purpose are not based on common sense) and just invest big money.
Do you think people who have responsibility to attract big investment and who want to invest big money just ignore these factors?
You need to remember that investors lost all of fresh investment of $20B in FnF during 2008. BTW $20B is a very large money in case some people do not understand what a billion means.
You did not respond about trade-ability of all 34 JPS Sticker symbols and not just about FNMAS.
Basically some people do not understand the time tested common sense in raising funds from capital markets.
1. As posted by me earlier, when it comes to big money investing in common shares, it is all about what % of outstanding shares investors are acquiring. That is why UST warrants are based on % basis (79.99% on diluted total outstanding stock) and not on number of shares. Even when warrants are based on number of shares, there will be clause to compensate for any dilution mischief.
2. The bigger the capital raise, then the discounts will be higher and demand will be less.
3. The more desperate the company to raise the capital, then the discounts will be higher and demand will be less.
4. When companies are not adequately capitalized or when companies are under any sort of restrictions or burdens like conservatorship, then then the discounts will be steeper and demand will be less.
5. Any Risks, any Uncertainties and any lawlessness require Zimbabwe steep discount and demand will be less.
6. (There are many more)
So if FHFA and UST want to capitalize FnF without harming the interests of FnF, without creating additional risks to taxpayers, and without destabilizing the economy with uncertainties then FHFA and UST have to remove all the above factors that reduce the recapitalization success and increase the chances of recapitalization failure.
In case of FnF, below stickup concrete life preservers are the roadblocks to successful capitalization and rehabilitation of FnF.
The stickup concrete life preservers: 1. Fake Conservatorship and HERA, 4617(f), word "may" 2. No respect for rule of law and constitutional rights 3. Accounting frauds by conservatorship 4. Conservatorship secrecies, lack of openness, lack of transparencies 5. Dictatorial SPSPA 6. Usury SPS 7. Continued Robbery through warrants and NWS
Unless FHFA and UST remove all these stickup concrete life preservers there is no possibilities to capitalization and rehabilitation of FnF
These factors make Release and Recap as the only viable plan
There is no meaning to peddling the same non-viable JPS holder's loony plan. Most of you (JPS holders) have admitted that Moelis plan was to fool FHFA, UST and taxpayers.
What harm will it cause, if conservatorship is terminated keeping every thing else same except (1) SPS value set to zero, and (2) NWS is reversed retoractively. In addition additional steps can be taken to unburden FnF from stickup concrete life preservers.
After termination of risky conservatorship, FnF become investment grade companies and easy to attract private capital. In addition retained capital will help to build capital and create a environment of trust with investors. In worst case scenario FnF will be fully capitalized within 5-7 years just using retained capital.
Most important achievement will be ending lawless bureaucratic abuse and ending 11 years of repugnant fake conservatorship.
After the disastrous misadventure of Bush-Hank and OB-Tim-Jack teams of wall street loan sharks, do you think any administration will try the same thing once again?
FHFA and UST-Hank fooled investors with their talk of temporary conservatorship. Next time, FnF shareholders will challenge conservatorship or receivership with in 30 days under HERA.
This lawless misadventure caused 2008 financial meltdown and havoc on global economy. If the same thing were to happen in China, most know what would have happened to these crooks.
Recapping FnF from new fresh investment from investors is a difficult process, even though it is possible after release but impossible under conservatorship.
Recapping FnF from retained earning is 100% possible under conservatorship as well as out side of conservatorship even though it may take many years.
The best possibility for recap is after release, using both retained and fresh investment.
Thanks, Clearly the law is on the side of FnF shareholders. But the Gov is the law enforcer. When all the three branches of Gov and independent agencies conspire against common people or FnF investors, individuals or small group investors can only protest and can do very little about it. Clearly Gov has violated the basic trust of its people and violated the supreme law of the land when it comes to FnF conservatorship.
1. Unless at the least one branch of Gov or even FHFA agrees with you, there is nothing much that can be done about it.
2. The current well accepted understanding is that FnF have been robbed by the Gov bureaucrats, the money has been treated as general income and has been spent. There is no publicly available information that indicates otherwise.
3. As per administration and appeals court, FnF conservatorship and FnF are private entities. But as per recent NY District court, FnF are Gov actors under overwhelming Gov influence through FHFA.
CBO considers FnF as Gov entities where as OMB considers FnF as private entities. Many consider FnF as fully nationalized and still FnF private companies.
Clearly politicians and revolving door bureaucrats have abused their authorities and created this ambiguity to defraud the FnF investors and taxpayers. Unfortunately banana republic judiciary has added to the confusion by twisted and contorted interpretation of HERA and word "may". In addition administration has kept important documents related to FnF conservatotrship as secret.
Thus FnF conservatorship has become biggest fraud in the history involving all three branches of Gov, independent Gov agencies, wall street banks, wall street bankers and traders, Think Tanks, politicians, and lobbyists...
Thanks to Trump administration for taking steps to end this shameful abuse by Gov bureaucracy.
Agree that FnF shareholders should not be promoting non-verifiable information and rumors. This is unproductive distraction.
Unfortunately most of the Bush-Hank and OB-Tim era fake and lawless Conservatorship related documents have been kept as secret promoting such rumors. Trump administration must open up all these documents to public and create a environment where public can trust their Gov.
All the Bush-Hank and OB-Tim-Jack era bureaucrats who have abused their powers should be exposed and justice should be done to these people.
Recap before Release is a fantasy plan promoted Wall street traders and bankers. Why are we hearing that UST is light on recap plans? BTW did you watch CG's latest scoop video.
Release and then Recap is a realistic plan. This plan does not require any assumptions, there are no risks, no uncertainties
Agree. This report is little bit similar to Charlie Gasbag report.
1. FnF will get sufficient credit line from Gov during recap transition 2. UST will not focus on recap details (most probably this will be left FnF Mgt) 3. NWS will end
This is looking more like Release and Recap.
These are the missing details: 1. Disposing off Warrants 2. setting SPS liquidation value to 0 as fully paid back 3. When conservatorship will end
You are 100000% wrong. Bush and OB kept F and F shareholders bound and gagged in the basement for 10 years - continuing the wrongful abduction and hostage holding.
Trump administration announced from the start about ending conservatorship and is working step by step on freeing FnF. Ask FHFA Director MC? After 10 years of lawless conservatorship, freeing FnF takes great amount of planning and time that too when TBTF bankers are spending big money and lobbying hard with lawmakers in their packets.
Trump administration is working on ending NWS and Conservatorship and there are no lies. Not sure about intentions of SM and his team of globalist bankers but do not look good after 2.5 years. Perhaps that is why White House sidelined SM and his team of globalist bankers and driving the process.
Big hypocrite OB and his administration worked on winding down FnF, clearly for the benefit of TBTF bankers. OB and his team lied all along and hid their real intentions. OB administration was the most opaque and non-transparent, non open and most corrupt administration.
These are the big differences. Those who see Trump administration same as OB administration wrt FnF are missing big way.
LOL, Things changed from worse to far worse in the first 10 years. In the last 2.5 years things have been changing from worse to better.
Bush and OB administration made it worse and worse for 10 years. How can any one expect Trump alone to change all the harm done, when Bank lobbyists are as strong as before and lawmakers are in the pockets of these lobbyists.
Trump Administration has made many positive changes and still many seem to think this as just talk and talk. Definitely recent white house initiatives are in the right direction and these things have to be done following proper protocols and these protocols take their time. One needs to be appreciate of the changes made by Trump administration so far and support the Trump administration.
Mindless skepticism and criticism does not help us.
100% correct. That is what KT19, CC, JosephS, RuudG have said it so many times. Moelis should publicly admit the same. As per these JPS holders, Moelis has tried to mislead UST, FHFA and Public to commit securities farud.
If White House focuses on big return on warrants, then it is 100% guaranteed that FnF will never get capitalized before or after conservatorship. Then it is certain that both CS, JPS and new investors will lose all their investment.
Nobody cares about what "do nothing SM and his team of Global bankers", and MC thinks. What matters is what DJT and White House thinks.
The wheels of justice grind slowly, to deny justice. Justice delayed is justice denied.
Lawyers in judicial and prosecutor jobs is the biggest scourge on the society. The solution is to ban appointing lawyers as judges and prosecutors. Most lawyers are not trained for judicial and prosecutor jobs. Lawyers think that their main job is to win any case at any cost. The job of judges and prosecutors should dispensing justice and not winning the cases.
Gov/Universities should start separate specialized justice degree courses as a minimum qualifications for judges and prosecutors and those who work in judiciary.
Many of these banks never needed Gov bailout money but Wall street mafia Don told them that they can not refuse the mafia help.
But in case of FnF, FnF did not have choice. Bazooka toting Wall street mafia Don had already put them under conservatorship.
Wallstreet banks that caused 2008 crisis bought back the warrants at nominal valuation. So FnF which bailed out the financial establishment shoud be allowed to buy back the warrants at very nominal value ($0.0001 per warrant).
As long we have banana republic judges supporting the lawless bureaucratic activities, citizens have to pay the price like in the FnF situation.
Unless judiciary rules that warrants are invalid, warrants need to be disposed in some manner. Here the easy and best option is to let FnF buyback warrants for UST valuations (currently at less than $10b).
The price of CS and JPS depend any variations to below must conditions.
There is only one sure way, FnF can survive and both CS and JPS can get back their invested money. The following conditions are must for this.
1. Reverse NWS 2. Set SPS liquidation preference value to 0 as fully paid 3. Let FnF buyback warrants at current UST valuations (<$10B) 4. Sufficient Gov credit line during recap 5. Try recap only after ending conservatorship
Any other variation will add risks and uncertainties and may put FnF under permanent conservatorship.
You make very valid points in this post. Most important investment principle is, be careful when investing in illiquid assets. Illiquid assets have big gap in bid-ask prices. Some times people may not find any buyers.
Thanks for the greetings. Wish all on this board Happy and Enjoyable Independence Day.
The above situation existed under Bush-Hank and Ob-Tim team of fraudsters. Under Bush-Hank and Ob-Tim administrations the white house policy was to wind down FnF and give FnF business to TBTF loan sharks. These fraudsters tried every mafia stick up tricks to destroy FnF. But FnF were too important institutions and their business model was too perfect to be destroyed by these mafia bankers and traders.
However under MAGA Trump administration the wind down policy was reversed to preserve FnF by ending Gov control and ending FHFA Conservatorship. So your narratives are old and not current.
Bush-Hank and Ob-Tim team of fraudsters forced more and more sinister concrete life jackets to destroy FnF ( Conservatorship, accounting frauds, Secrecy, Usury SPSPA, Warrants, NWS). Unless these sinister concrete life jackets are removed there is no way to free FnF from monsterous FHFA conservatorship.
Currently most in Trump administration agree on ending Conservatorship, reversing NWS, considering SPS as fully paid. But we have not heard much on warrants. Unless warrants are disposed off in a reasonable manner FnF can not be recapped before or after conservatorship.
80% Warrants were created to destroy FnF. There is no way Gov can extract big money on warrants and also recap FnF. Gov has already made $150B on net investment of about $150B on SPS. Only reasonable option is to let FnF buy back warrants at current valuation by UST.
The final stable pps depends on how warrants are disposed off. If gov tries to make big money on warrants then recapping FnF is impossible and both CS and JPS investors lose all their investment. In this situation even $3 is highly optimistic.
If FnF are allowed to buy back warrants at reasonable price, then PPS can be any where from $15 to $50.
Nobody knows how these judges work or do not work. Judges are totally unaccountable to anyone and beat OB hands down in keeping everything secret from public but not from cronies. Traders knew before hand the ruling of Judge Lamberth and started selling the stock few days before ruling.
DC circuit judges took 1.5 years to come up with cooked up majority Perry ruling. May be, Judge Brown had to work hard to come up with excellent minority dissenting opinion. But other two judges simply wasted their time having already made the decision to rule against Perry. Probably because of Judge Brown, other two Judges gave part favorable ruling to Perry.
Everything in DC is swampy. Let us hope 5th circuit is better than swampy DC circuit.
It does not matter. You can not screw existing CS holders, without doing the same to formidable UST and new big investors.
If UST exercises warrants first then UST owns 80% and existing CS holders 20% of outstanding shares. Will not any dilution after this affect both UST and CS holders the same way?
As per DOA plan (Fantasy plan), UST should get $125B (pps of $15.63) for 80% CS stake. Using the same formula existing CS holders should also get $31.24B (pps of $15.63). If UST goes for private placement then the same offer should also be given minority shareholders.
So after paying $156B one can get 100% of FnF with net worth $6B. After this, these investors have to raise another $150B to capitalise FnF. Do you think WB is a stupid or idiot enough to invest $300B in almost bankrupt and risky companies.
Are there any other ways, you are thinking of screwing public CS holders, UST and also new investors like WB?
The above harebrain thinking is without any substance.
Gov owns warrant rights to 80% of the outstanding stock after any dilution. So any new Common share offering can not be more than 20% outstanding stock even if existing CS holders are completely wiped out.
It does not matter how one tries to screw the existing CS holders, new CS offering can not exceed 20% of outstanding stock. Even if new offering is 100s of trillions of shares at one billionth of a penny, the new shareholders can not acquire more than 20% of outstanding stock.
FnF shares are not meant for loan sharking capitalists. WB is more focused on acquiring TBTF banks and insurance companies. So WB is more interested in acquiring business of FnF than FnF itself. Gov is never going to give control of FnF to any loan sharks.
Agree. SM and his team of wall street globalist bankers are working together in this like Bush-Hank and Ob-Tim team of fraudsters. So far these people have done nothing but promote the interests of TBTF bankers and preserve status quo of conservatorship and NWS.
What makes you think like above?
Only hope for FnF and FnF shareholders is Trump White House.
It is Trump White house which changed the OB policy of FnF wind down.
It is Trump White House which has appointed most people who are pro FnF.
It is Trump White House which has issued policy directive to start the process of ending conservatorship and restoring their private status.
It is Trump White House which has agreed with Collins Merit panel ruling of unconstitutionality of FHFA headed by single director.
RickNagra, Are we not starting with wrong assumptions.
FnF were never a risk to taxpayers anytime. FnF were forced in to conservatorship for part ideological and part to bailout bankrupt financial system. Official statement from FHFA director during start of conservatorship is very clear about bailing out bankrupt financial system by proving unlimited liquidity to markets.
Nobody cared about taxpayers in the past and nobody cares about taxpayers now. It is just a political slogan to mislead public. White house has realized the importance of FnF to economy and has taken a decision to restore them to their previous status rather than handover their business to TBTF banks.
CC, LOL, All know about your your mischievous jester like pranks of no practical value.
But can you tell us when will FnF be fully capitalized and when FnF will be released under DOA v3.0 plan ( also known as Fantasy v3.0 plan, also known as Moelis V3.0 plan).
Your JPS or JPS converted to CS have value only when FnF are fully capitalized and released. But all Moelis 1.0 to 3.0 plans have been DOA on release. Any Recap and Release plans like Moelis plans have no practical use and will end in total failure. So all existing and new investors will surely lose all their investments.
If you want to see returns on your investment in FnF, then it is better you start promoting Release and Recap plans. With this plan all will start getting benefited as soon as FnF are release without waiting for recap.