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CD, the Blanchard article ? I've heard a few times now that smaller CBs are actually buying. I'd like to see some hard evidence though.
Gold broke out... peace in Iran.. ? Well aside from my opinion that Iran played their hand well.. isn't this what folks are looking for ? Gold rising 'on the fundamentals' despite geopolitical concerns over who's got the biggest pea shooter etc.. Oil was down but my PF doesn't reflect much of that..
I see BCM did on Thursday what we were looking for on Wednesday although not as much 'gusto' as I would have liked to be sure...
Al...
I'm off to the waterpark tomorrow for a couple of days.... yes the waterpark :O)
http://www.greatwolflodge.com/Locations/Niagara/ too bad it's flash.. that wolf with the waterwings and goggles is too funny...
Those are on the TSX Venture so yes you won't see them..
Loaded with CLL also. Looking for uptrend to resume... but ready for the opposite..
Nice day for PBG today..
Still cleaning out the U explorcos for spring ...
Bought Bear Creek Mining BCM.V 6.75.
Dumped IMT.V for a loss. Ansi about some of those grassroots plays liquidity dying up at this time of year..
Added ADM 3.06
sold a ittle FCO .77
Looking for a groove...
Some stuff I'm watching...
Some stuff I'm watching...
Some stuff I'm watching...
Some stuff I'm watching...
Some stuff I'm watching...
Some stuff I'm watching...
Some stuff I'm watching...
Some stuff I'm watching...
amark are all central banks included ? or only major countries... Chap on BNN (don't know why they changed from RobTv... BNN talk about bland...) anyway.. he was saying the main impetus for gold is that many central banks (smaller ones I think, it was morning rush..) were replacing assets with gold..
I've added that to my compilation at the end
The one just prior is on gold... :O)
http://spots.kicks-ass.org/think.htm
ROTF...
Well I've done just fine with my energy thank you... now maybe NG again ? I've been accumulating some gold stocks in the last little while.. RIO Narcea warrants, Andina, Amarillo, European Minerals Warraqnts, .. Amarillo is already a very solid profit as I was in .78-.82.
I need to unload my grassroots U explorers I think.. but I'll keep STM, URZ and URE.. for a while, been lucky with those..
My daughter is on her second NANO... first one died and they replaced it... seems 3 of her friends have had the same thing happen.., one of them twice.. She has had lots of other issues needing to reload it... at least they warn you to back everything up :O) The markup on these things must be so astronomical to do this so readily I salivate...
Jobs has taken a page from Gates playbook and managed to convince the world they NEEDED his crappy product and the addon's... My hat is truly off to him,... Meanwhile I'm happy chugging along with my reliable little 4 gig Sansa with built in FM :O)... it's just not sexy though.. an old man's mp3 player LOL...
yes roni... great call... congrats.. now I'm pulling for your gold :O)
So what do you like in gold ?
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23407893
Long term dollar chart.. Nice to see one that does not start in 2001....
Dust Bowl of the 30s reprised ?
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23400896
If you think that is impressive Tom check this out. Last time Superior was this low was just before the dust bowl years began. Can you imagine what kind of $$$ Gore will be taking in for his speeches if the 30's weather pattern returns to the plains?
March 08, 2006
Dust Bowls and Hurricanes
by Mike Shedlock
Accu-Weather meteorologists are asking Is America facing yet another dust bowl?
Accu-Weather.com meteorologists have warned oceanic conditions similar to those that triggered the ruinous "Dust Bowl" drought again appear to be in place. Conditions similar to those that led to 1930s drought.
The exceptionally warm Atlantic waters that played a major role in the record-breaking 2005 hurricane season, coupled with cooler-than-normal Pacific waters, are weakening and changing the course of a low-level jet stream that normally channels moisture into the Great Plains.
Effects are starting to be felt in "America's breadbasket," as the southern Great Plains region is already suffering from higher temperatures and a prolonged lack of precipitation.
Why could a new Dust Bowl drought occur?
The low-level jet stream -- a fast-moving current of winds close to the Earth's surface -- travels from east to west across the Atlantic, then typically curves northward as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico, bringing moisture to the Great Plains.
Abnormal sea-surface temperatures have caused this low-level jet stream to continue westward and to weaken, which is preventing much-needed moisture from reaching the agriculturally critical region.
The shift in the jet stream is also allowing a southerly flow from Mexico to bring much drier air northward into the Plains.
Besides dramatically reducing precipitation for the region, the changes brought about by the abnormal sea-surface temperatures will also result in higher surface temperatures in the Plains.
"When surfaces are wet, energy from solar radiation both evaporates moisture and heats the ground," said AccuWeather.com Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams. "When no moisture is present, all that energy is channeled toward heating the ground, and the warm-er ground heats the lower atmosphere.
"The combination of low moisture and higher temperatures would be a crippling one-two punch for the Great Plains should these conditions persist, much like what occurred during the Dust Bowl drought."
The Dust Bowl drought
The Dust Bowl, which lasted from 1931-1939, was a severe drought that struck a wide swath of the Great Plains.
It was a catastrophic blow to the U.S. economy, which was already staggering under the weight of the Great Depression.
The Dust Bowl was the worst drought in U.S. history, eventually covering more than 75 percent of the country.
Solar radiation heating the parch-ed and blighted land caused temperatures in the region to rise to record-breaking levels.
"1936 was the hottest summer ever recorded across much of the Midwest and East," said Abrams. "Many of the single-day and monthly record-high temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the country are from that year."
The Dust Bowl was also noted for the huge dust storms that billowed across the Great Plains and swallowed millions of acres of farmland at a time. While a Dust Bowl-level drought could occur again, it is highly unlikely that the nation will see a return of the dust storms.
"The dust storms fed off the over-plowed and over-grazed lands of the Great Plains," said Dale Mohler, AccuWeather.com expert senior meteorologist and a forecaster for the agricultural industry.
"The agricultural practices at the time, combined with a long period of drought, caused severe damage to farmland in the region. Eventually the topsoil dried up to the point where it was swept away as great clouds of choking dust that stretched for miles."
Continued Mohler, "Today's agricultural practices, such as crop rotation and improved irrigation, as well as drought-resistant hybrid crops, would likely prevent the landscape from being as ruined as it was during the 1930s.
For example, Illinois endured a terrible drought in 2005, but the state's corn yield was close to normal. However, a multiyear drought in the Great Plains would still be devastating for the nation."
The hurricane connection
"It is not a coincidence that the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s were marked by years of tremendous hurricane activity," said AccuWeather.com Hur-ricane Center Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi.
"For example, the record-shattering 2005 hurricane season was the first to eclipse 1933 in number of tropical cyclones, and that may only have been because we didn't have satellites in the 1930s to identify the major storms that failed to reach the U.S. coast."
Hurricanes are fed by warm waters. This year's warm Atlantic waters -- which are now setting up a possible major drought in the U.S. -- played a major role in the 2005 season's numerous and powerful storms.
Conversely, because the Pacific has been relatively cool -- another prerequisite for the return of a Dust Bowl-like drought -- this year's Pacific hurricane season was tame from historical perspective.
Added Bastardi, "While we cannot yet tell how long this current pattern will last, if you trust history, then the 2005 hurricane season just may portend the return of a major drought to the Great Plains."
http://www.safehaven.com/article-4732.htm
time to get moving again
Interesting name LOL, have not looked at the chart... Just thought I'd post the name :O) StockCharts is down and I'm packing for a week on the slopes...
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23356710
Thanks, all three charts look interesting.... I'm amazed at all the LNG that seems to be arriving... Seems the NG market is already becoming more global.. ahaead of any new big terminals being built...
http://www.boston.com/news/local/maine/articles/2007/02/23/tories_warn_of_gunboats_if_american_tanke....
I've been to Deer Island and took a whale watching cruise from it..
This land is your land, this land is my land :O)
Also bought RIO Narcea Warrants yesterday near the close.
RNG.WT.TO
Bought STM.V
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23335021
Actually bought quite a bit. Working out well so far.. but still shaky..
Funny I wrote this last week..
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23329059
and had to explain it :O here :o)
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readreplies.aspx?msgid=23331219&nonstock=True&subjectid=37211
If I need cash and sell say 1K PBG I can instantly use it. Bank of Montreal Investorline like that.. Same with my TD account EXCEPT if I go negative EVEN a buck they enforce the settlement rule them... a crock of course.. but anyway.. needing to wait for settlement seems whacked to me... maybe shop around..
Renoing a bathroom... man the builder did a $hit job.. and he lived in it for 10 years.. Built in shower against exterior wall ... Tiles directly on cement ... no insulation.. and where there is insulation on other exterior wall only 2 inches .. maybe R4 ?? crap.... So putting a new floor, toilet, vanity and sink, and readymade shower in etc.. has become a major undertaking.. , insulating, drywalling, moving a closet wall.. sigh.. Then I get to do the main bathroom..
Tried snowboarding today.. with my son, 7 and my daughter laughing.. We all ski well but she also boards well.. Surprised I didn't crack my tailbone and one tumble had me wipe out winded at the foot of a group lesson.. LOL... got the (rudimentary) hang of it though so I think I'm gonna persevere ..
Time for te doggies... I'm late..
page right You need a bigger monitor and/or use a higher display resolution..
The charting service should have thought of that though..
OK this I found interesting...
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23333380
I need lots of work with in the trade management ...
I am going to start trading around a core position
trading more ...
Works OK for me... but I find the need to be extra vigilant that I do not 'bend' the rules on stocks I hold a core position in because of 'fundamentals' ...
CLL and PBG come to mind for me.. most though now I can flip like SpongeBob's Crabby Patties :O) ..
ha ha I'm happy I'm busy working and cannot fret about it :O)
Don't know... but my account is a yoyo this AM....
Slider CNBC LOL... I followed that link from Big Dog's and was surprised to find a JimP (he's been silent a long time) post reminiscent of a Slider post..
I think we are going to pull back more (US markets especially) and have been buying insurance for a while.. for inevitable spillover up here ..(since around the time I posted on the Horizon funds)..
rapture.. I was wondering about your skin reference.. pretty unappealing.. The rapture term isn't actually in the Catholic doctrine that I know of.. but the end game is the same.. OK nuff religion..
So CLL ... is the reversal gonna stick, my traders say yes :O) Looking for some follow through.. 90$ oil ... works for me...
I also added some to my small postion in this THPW.. chart looking like an ad for the China Syndrome (as in nuclear accident...)
Thanks, I've PDP through CLL. Used to own the warrants a ways back. Maybe CLL will move some more as a result... an unloved stock (CLL)... could use better promotion..
Bought CLL yesterday .. http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23324428
B
So Frank, what's your take on the last two days ?
Cashing up ?
Bullish ?
In between ?
I cannot let go of my fascination with the short stocks... but I'm thinking it's not the real time yet.. I mean the Nasdaq just kept going up... until it didn't.. :o)
Other opinions welcome ...
BTW I found this post via Boom Boom Room... http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23328874
Well actually it has company... I'm fascinated with short stocks recently... morbid eh LOL...
Now there's something you don't see everyday...
Still liking GEM.V ?
a sad lonely little chart ... :o( but for how long I wonder ...
Yes the ADM has gusto LOL...
On TSE then we have.. SWP(TSE) looks constructive.. if grains are in.
Andy, LC is talking about this on .. I assume.. but the Swisscom is interesting.. if it doesn't break 39 with gusto you figure it is double topping, correct ?
Thanks LC, hope so. I'll take a gander at SCM..
Kastel
Also.. bought some ADM.V this AM (Gold)
Was out this AM... just checking the market... Good day to be radioactive :O)
IMHO LOL... anyone reading these boards should always take that for granted :O) ... IMHO...
Anyway I took a little less than 8% haircut on part of my EPEX this AM but got some of the URZ I posted yesterday :O)
Crosshair ... weren't they a junior of a different flavour a ways back ? I've put them on watch..
CLL working out maybe... hoping it's not a fakeout.. again..
K
Thanks for the ideas..
a familiar looking chart ? OK liquidity is wanting... BTW GRUB 17800
I'm actually thinking about gold :O)
Chary's GFI even and that cult favourite of you guys too :O)
Reminds me of the US between the Two World Wars, industrial production exploding. This is key currency wise as it involves selling dollars. I think few let the implications sink in. In effect massive repatriation.
Yeah I remember talking about exactly this scenario on SI a few years back when there was lots of talk on the renmimbi be revalued.. (to bail out the US) and how China would fold without the US consumer market.. I was looking at the great ongoing need for China to expand infrastructure and clean up their environment (not to Al Gorian standards maybe :O) as well as simply service its burgeoning middle class..
Sorry the post is not mine.. nor the commentary but I believe supporting the dollar is what he's implying.. or as you say 'rocket' the interest rates...
On CLL I'm betting the down trend has reversed of course and I posted it would be bumpy ... I guess I should pay attention to myself more often.. 3.90 was way too early.. Today's buy I think is a much more logical entry ... I do have some lower bids in also...
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsgs.aspx?subjectid=50987&msgnum=80109&batchsize=100&...
3rd UPDATE: Dec Foreign Acquisition Of Long-Term US Secs Down
>>>Sorry Ido - I didn't believe you so I had to find separate confirmation. What else I can't believe is that there is little market reaction. So the biggest holders - Japan and China - have stopped buying. See my article about Congress imposing tariffs on both. Looks like a shoot-out at the OK corral. Who is holding all the aces here??? If China starts dumping because the US imposes tariffs, kiss real estate here goodbye. If real estate here tanks, then the Saudis stop buying treasuries and or run for the exits. Sell those houses - buy that crude.<<<
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
February 15, 2007 11:59 a.m.
(Updates with analysts' comments).
By Campion Walsh
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Net foreign acquisition of long-maturity U.S. securities plunged to $2.5 billion in December, down 95% from $52.2 billion in November and the lowest monthly amount since July 2000, according to a Treasury Department report released Thursday.
The decline reflected both foreign private investors' sharp scaleback in their buying of a range of U.S. securities and U.S. investors making record net purchases of foreign stocks and bonds.
"We got hit by a perfect storm in December," said Jay Bryson, global economist for Wachovia Corp. While following months are likely to show more favorable capital inflows, the latest report could reflect longer-term difficulty financing the current account deficit, Bryson said.
"With interest-rate differentials narrowing, foreigners probably aren't going to be purchasing as many U.S. securities going forward," he said, referring to potentially more atractive interest rates outside the U.S. "With a very large current account deficit, I think it means further downward pressure on the dollar as we go forward."
The monthly Treasury report highlights cross-border acquisitions of securities with maturities of more than one year, including non-market flows such as stock swaps and principal repayment on asset-backed securities. Other capital flow gauges in the report also fell steeply.
The report's most comprehensive category, "monthly net TIC flows," includes non-market flows, short-term securities and changes in banks' dollar holdings.
This measure showed a net foreign capital outflow of $11.0 billion in December, a sharp reversal from the $70.5 billion net monthly TIC inflow of the previous month. The outflow in December was the first negative reading for this gauge since a $21.1 billion outflow in June 2005.
Despite the sharp December downturn for the report's various gauges of net capital flow to the U.S., full-year readings increased. In 2006 net foreign acquisition of long-term securities totaled $730.4 billion, 4.5% higher than the previous year. Meanwhile, the broadest gauge, monthly net TIC inflows, totaled $827.9 billion, up 24% from the previous year.
"The data is enormously volatile from month to month, and the best thing is to look at it over a much longer time horizon," said a senior Treasury official who requested anonymity. "The U.S. Treasury market is the deepest, most liquid and most vibrant in the world, and it continues to attract investment."
Currency market analysts acknowlege the monthly data can be volatile, but they say the data can still be significant. "If the dollar continues to sell off sharply over the next couple of days, people will look to that data as a reason and it will become self-reinforcing," said David Solin, technical analyst and partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics.
Financial market analysts consider the monthly data from the Treasury Department to be a significant but imprecise measure of the ease with which the U.S. can finance its trade deficit. By comparison the U.S. had a $61.2 billion trade deficit during December, according to a report earlier this week by the Commerce Department.
Within the long-term securities category, foreign net purchases of U.S. Treasury notes and bonds was $10.6 billion in December, compared with net buys of $34.1 billion in November.
Private foreign investors bought a net $4.6 billion in Treasury notes and bonds in December, after making net purchases of $32.5 billion the previous month. Meanwhile, foreign official institutions such as central banks bought a net $6.1 billion of these Treasurys, compared with net purchases of $1.0 billion the previous month.
Net foreign purchases of debt issued by U.S. government-sponsored agencies such as Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) totaled $28.0 billion in December, up from $15.8 billion in net purchases in November.
For U.S. equities, net foreign sales totaled $11.6 billion in December, a reversal from $7.0 billion in net purchases the previous month.
For corporate bonds, net foreign purchases were $36.0 billion in December, down from $65.4 billion the previous month.
Net foreign equities and bonds purchased by U.S. residents - which affects the overall net inflow figure - was $47.4 billion in December, a record high that was up from November's $37.4 billion. The increase was driven by a record-high $28.5 billion in net foreign bonds purchased by U.S. residents.
Total foreign holdings of Treasury bills, notes and bonds was $2.224 trillion at the end of December, up from $2.218 trillion the month before. But foreign official holdings of Treasury bills, notes and bonds fell to $1.318 trillion in December from $1.321 trillion the month before.
Japan remained the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities, with its holdings rising $6.9 billion in December to $644.3 billion. China remained the second-largest holder of U.S. Treasurys, as its stake rose $3.1 billion to $349.6 billion. The U.K. remained in third place with holdings up $16.5 billion to $239.1 billion.
Treasury holdings by "oil exporters" - a category comprising mainly members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - rose $3.8 billion to $100.9 billion. Treasury holdings in Caribbean banking centers, which are associated with investment funds, dropped $15.1 billion in December to $68.0 billion.
Sold my SNDK .... yesterday.... LOL. together the two trades reached my initial goal... New today it pops almost 2 bucks..
I made money with discipline and lack of emotion in this one.. but it's hard not to look back :O)
Added some CLL today.
Still holding EPEX... woof woof..