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actually, CYDY mgmt has always had these conf. calls after market close, there is nothing different here. also, in the past the only conf. call that was to announce less than good news was a couple ago when the naive treatment was not going to happen - all others were to announce good news that surpassed what we were expecting. also, (again) CYDY does not need to have conf. calls - they are choosing to because some new development/achievement. If that is not enough, what news could there be that would be negative? "hi all, just to let you know we are still recruiting?" i don't think so.
I would think your concern is possible, but not probable. there have been too many patients injected that show a significant viral load drop. the thought that pro 140 will fail in adjunct would mean that 7-8 patients of the 15 actually being injected do not respond. It is my understanding that the past non-responders were not the right tropism and that we have a much improved screening process to make sure that does not happen. your concern could be real, but i sure would be surprised if that does happen. also, i think we are more interested in gathering a large data set and that will come from the mono trial. maybe it would make sense for the 30 enrollment for adjunct take as long as possible so there is no small sample set confusion issues?
Thanks Saltz, good write up on the details of where we are at. I admit i can be a bit glass half empty when there is a lack of news. However, I am confident that 2017 is going to be a big positive year for CYDY!
sorry, was making a general comment - not specifically to you Shane.
i hope i'm not now considered one of the dissenters - I have been with this company the longest - 12 years since they first went public. I'm not the largest retail stock owner but i'm in the multiple 100's of thousands of shares and have never sold any. I think it is more important to be critical than blindly following, especially when the path is narrow.
lets calm down a little - please keep this constructive. I will say that Nader has moved the development of pro 140 dramatically in the last year. I will also say that recruitment for the trials, trial results and fda approval are mostly out of Nader's hands. its up to the trial sites and pro 140 itself. Nader's optimism may be on the high side but that may be of benefit when BP shows some interest. BP interest is in pro 140, not Nader.
i guess what i'm getting at is the least disruptive option. I would think if Nader was to step back and let a board member take the reign many would see this as possibly a good thing more than a sign of danger. It would be interesting if Nader sees that his own warrants and stock options would be better handled by someone else.
would it be possible for one of the BOD to take over those functions that Nader is not qualified for? Have you met any of them and what is your opinion on the board?
I agree with you, please don't think i'm just blindly supporting mgmt just to be optimistic. but I must draw the line at do you want to punish for the past actions or make the best of the future. a major change now, even if it is better, would likely be a huge set back. also, i think it is very unlikely that replacing Nader would even be possible - the board clearly supports him. I hate that the success is that we collect trial results data, BP offers a buyout and we are done some time this year and anything else is a disaster. such a narrow window of opportunity. but, pro 140 does work and this amount of opportunity will never be without tremendous risk.
so, to fire Nader and find a replacement or to keep Nader and hire someone to work with him would cost more than the benefit. You are assuming that a replacement would automatically know what to do and how to do it. that would be ideal but in my experience people sound great most of the time but you don't know if they are who they say they are until after they are hired. too often you find that there past accomplishments were due to others around them, often in spite of there actions. At this point, cytodyn can not waste the time to experiment with a mgmt change. I agree that possibly if there was a RS months ago, an uplist months ago and better negotiation for capitol raises the SP might be better now. however the momentum we have now has put us months to the goal, not years. also, the board is there to protect us investors, and they must ok what Nader does that impacts us. it sounds to me the board would be just as much to blame. so fire everyone and start over? now?
I have not really done any speculations on buyout #s - i would guess if the data from both the mono and adjunct looks as expected the buyout should be between 3-6 billion. but, i'm really going on what others have said. I do estimate the actual share price to move by $4/billion based on roughly 250 million shares owned - i might be wrong in this calculation but really a low-ball offer is way more than where we are at now so no complaints.
honestly, if i did not have a position on today and ran across this stock i doubt i would invest. mostly because it does not match my trading style now. I'm an options and futures trader and these high speculation long position trades are lottery tickets to me. I invested then because cytolyn was a game changer treatment, as is pro 140. the investment was small @.75/share. I would never think it would be 12 years later and we are at almost the same price but most of those years this stock has been sitting on a shelf collecting dust. Also, for many years the volume was less than a few thousand shares traded a day so i could not sell unless i wanted to drive the price to less than a dime. now i know if i throw in the towel, the next day the company will be bought out for billions and will spend the rest of my life being bitter about the one that got away! When i post any negative comments about cytodyn it is meant as constructive - i do believe in the product and mgmt more than ever.
I guess the take away is that Nader was the only candidate. the board really could not offer much to attract another CEO that may be in it for ulterior motives. I think we can all agree Nader is in this quite a bit with his heart and head. there may be better qualified candidates but this is a very high risk situation and many would not want a failure on there resume. also PRO 140 has been in the picture for the past few years, before that it was cytolin, some bird flu vaccine and cyto-feline. none were half as developed as PRO 140.
Nader was not found, he was an investor originally and asked to be CEO by the board. At that time cytodyn was basically broke. I don't think cytodyn was in any position to "hire" any CEO. Many of you have not been with this company for as long as i have (12 years) and will not know that the history is full of lights out we're done moments. One past CEO basically was a commercial real estate agent and was trying to raise capitol so they could buy an office building for the headquarters. that is what Nader stepped in. Hi background is not ideal but the last 2 years there has been more progress than the entire history. I will agree his handling of the stock price has not been steller but when there are no funds you must make the difficult decision to dilute. I think there might have been other options but doing nothing was not an option. remember, any BP that is looking to buy CYDY does not give a crap about the mgmt - they are buying the product. the more developed the product, the better.
I will agree with Amature17, little slips in the time line could become a problem. we don't want to automatically discount Nader's optimism as just optimism. there have been too many great plans and aggressive milestones that have slipped already. this uncertainty has obviously created a very stuck stock. I am still optimistic but a more solid plan with controllable outcomes would bring in more investment, any new investor can look back through this msg board and see how difficult it is to find what the timeline is.
got it, thanks!
It was my understanding the primary endpoint is by end if 1q 2017, but enrollment will be this year. I know Nader verbally stated that the enrollment will be quick. May not be very important but we have endured many slipping timelines.
not to jinx this, but it is the end of 4th quarter and Nader was confident that the 30 patients would be enrolled in the adjunct P3 trial. I really hope that this will not become a pattern of missed milestones. I know 2017 will be the big year and these milestones are not guaranteed to the day no matter how confident Nader is.
got it, thanks for explaining. I don't want to create unessesary ammo for more concerns about cash raises in the future. It is nessesary but i do believe mgmt is only raising what they need to keep moving forward. I also like that the low bid offer estimate in a buyout event is still a good profit. my biggest concern is if there is no buyout even with great data.
why do you think they will need $140 million (200 mil x today's stock price)? in the past they have been raising just enough to hold over for 6 months - a year, the trials do not cost that much.
It is interesting how in past conf. calls the "top priority" was to get the stock price up organically, or with a RS and get uplisted and now it is not even discussed by mgmt. If i remember correctly this was before the last raise that was so damaging to thew stock price. I called the IR guy and that was when i was told the cost in time and money to be uplisted was what ended the drive to do so. I understand the desire to save money and that a buyout is not dependent on what exchange the stock is listed but why all of a sudden this change in attitude? my guess is the ability to raise funds depends on liquidity in the stock price allowing the lowering of risk - which is what happened. Mgmt is pushing pro140's development very quickly which is great but i'm wondering if the financial opportunity has become too much in the favor of these small investment firms.
exactly what i was thinking! Nader talked in a conf. call about the video interviews they were conducting and still no publishing? I would think these posted on you tube would be great for enrollment.
I've basically taken the attitude that this is not a publicly traded company, we are just silent partners. i'm just trying to not have the nickle moves mean anything to me.
no kidding! if we do get low balled at $1 bil, that is somewhere around $4 a share. i don't think there is anyone here that paid more than that. not a home run but this worst case scenario is great also.
don't get me wrong Broker, i agree the stock price is not even close to where it should be. I also agree that waiting for the phone to ring is not a great plan either. I just feel that a major change at this point would be far more damaging. when past CEOs were running things we were facing bankruptcy, Nader came into a disaster and has moved the advancement significantly. It has come at a cost but we have a bright future ahead. I just hope there is not another capitol raise at these price levels.
I am confused as to why you are so adamant about the mgmt being incompetent, the FDA process has only been eased and sped up. I agree that the timelines have been delayed, at most a year. In an industry that measures timelines in decades i have a hard time understanding how you can be so negative on that point. I could also agree that mgmts handling of capitol raises and stock placement is not ideal, but what would you rather they do? not raise cash and stop all progress? offer warrants OR stock (not both) to investment firms to raise capitol and watch know one take the deal? The decision to not RS and uplist may have been a mistake but if that was done we might be in a world of stock manipulation and possible de-listing. Additionally the cost to be on the Nasdaq is huge - what would you rather spend the money on - trials or fees? I think i can say that our payday is when the company is bought. between now and then the stock price is not really important. they have the cash to continue to move forward and that is what they are doing. It is also my opinion that potential buyout candidates have milestones set before they make and acquisition - like a large sample size of trial results that show that pro140 works. the faster we get that, the faster we get bought out.
thanks for the info - now i know why!
Thanks wallstreet - you too! also, sorry i was critical a couple months ago for my negative comments toward you for the "little birdie" predictions - you were right.
Has there been a good reason for management deciding not to be more open to the status of the enrollment and trial progress? why do we only get announcements of 1st injection and last patient injection? is that an FDA trial requirement? why can't we get a # of patients enrolled today? has there been holds put on the enrollment process due to changes in the approved trial protocol? Is there a reason for not being transparent so we don't have to be guessing what is optimism or pessimism?
I would think if the requirements have been loosened for eligibility the enrollment sites could call up past applicants and enroll them right away. could it be that the enrollment process was on hold as the details of the protocol were changed?
I just don't see what the harm would be to be much more open. what is more damaging - lack of info or too much info?
because no investment firm would do the deal. i thought about CYDY either raising money with stock OR warrants but not both. but that would not fly. i would think that if CYDY would offer a private placement with us individual investors we would not have this liquidation problem. not sure if they could raise millions that way.
I was being conservative and really just estimating the capitol needed through the end of 1st Q 2017. Hopefully CYDY mgmt recognizes the damage done after the last capitol raise and will hold off until they have a higher SP, or just make a better deal when it comes time to raise. I remembered from talking to the IR guy that one of the most important aspects from the private investment firms point of view is they want a liquid SP. it is now obvious to me why, so they can sell off stock and keep warrants with very little risk.
the FDA will approve the p3 adjunct trial with only 30 patients AND enough data for the safety part of the approval. The FDA has not said how many patients are needed for the safety aspect but it is assumed that it is more than 30. the P3 mono trial is 300 patients and if they can get enough safety data from the 300 patients earlier than the completion of the p3 mono trial then the p3 adjunct trial will have FDA approval.
My theory is that CYDY has enough cash to fund the p3 adjunct which should have results/fda approval 1st q 2017. so, not likely there will be another cash raise until after that. i also don't think the SP will rise significantly until we are closer to full patient trial enrollment and then trial results. patient enrollment could be announced any day this year. at the current price i think its a buy.
i doubt that they are ever planning to uplist. it seems to me they know there will be a buyout next year. why go through the cost and time to do it? the stock price today and until buyout does not really matter. i did have a theory that the sell off might be an attempt to hold the share price low so that when the next capitol raise happens investment firms can get more shares for there dollar. just a theory.
I agree not much new. i noticed that Nader did say they want the mono trials to have the 300 patients so there is not going to be an attempt to reduce in the future. Nader said they want to have a large # to show the effectiveness across a large sample set for the data. i agree with that, any big pharma wants to know it works and a large sample set will show that. Nader also mentioned when asked about if they are in talks with big pharma that typically big pharma is patient and waits before a buyout. they are not looking to buy at the lowest price, more interested in a sure thing.
yup, could have just said that!
that is the problem, if this Israeli company can get the funding and stock growth for a treatment that might work a decade from now then shame in cytodyn management for not being able to do the same thing with pro140.
to put this in perspective, if you were big pharma, what would you buy? a company that might have a cure 10 years from now that has not been injected in a human yet, or a company that has a treatment that has been injected in many and works now. if they get 1-2 years of revenue from pro140 that is enough to pay for the investment in this market with a great profit. even if cytodyn is bought out for 1 billion, that's roughly $3-4 a share. i'm hoping for more than that but it seems hard to imagine cytodyn going for less than that.
it looks like they have only tested in test tubes so far. even if it works it will take years to go through trials. Pro140 is much closer to market and even if it is eventually replaced buy another better treatment i has the potential for billions of revenue in those years. thats the worst case scenario, many of these cures prove to not work.
i get it, in the long run today's SP does not matter. it would be nice if mgmt could stop with the optimistic statements and stick with real milestone plans. they know they need funds to keep moving forward and that comes from the investment firms that manipulate stock price to cut there risk. all they care about at this stage is liquidity so they can move the shares. cytodyn is being run like a private company with a few investors now, not a publicly traded company. we are really just here for the ride.
Totally agree. maybe they should have a lunch to talk about the stock price instead of trying to clarify the last conf. call. i hate to think what any prospective investor thinks looking at this very promising treatment and a stock price falling to all time lows.