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Is Kaufman still a part of GIGL? I didn't think he was but I could be mistaken. Not that he's done anything to add value aside from lending his name
Here's a question for those still holding:
If it costs $600k to open a new location, and this assumes a mall owner will contribute the additional $600k, then why is Parsi only asking for a minimum of $300,000 for a new location?
He's on record saying that in a previous deal, the Tanofran mall was willing to pay 100% of the build-out costs, but he walked away from that because the mall was going to be renovated -- a dubious claim that I have not been able to verify, that nobody here has been able to verify, and that Parsi will not back up with specific details.
But it seems to be that if he wanted to expand, he would be seeking at least $600k and perhaps more than that in this WeFunder campaign. The fact he only wants $300k indicates to me that he is okay with it not securing the amount needed to open a new location so long as he gets fund to continue to pay himself and his colleagues.
You also have to wonder if Parsi would be willing to agree to put any funds received from WeFunder in escrow to be used only for the purpose of expansion? The fact that he basically spent the offering money on non-expansion related things is proof that he doesn't really care about expanding. If it happens, great, but he is going to look out for himself before he cares about the shareholders and investors.
Here's a question for those still holding:
If it costs $600k to open a new location, and this assumes a mall owner will contribute the additional $600k, then why is Parsi only asking for a minimum of $300,000 for a new location?
He's on record saying that in a previous deal, the Tanofran mall was willing to pay 100% of the build-out costs, but he walked away from that because the mall was going to be renovated -- a dubious claim that I have not been able to verify, that nobody here has been able to verify, and that Parsi will not back up with specific details.
But it seems to be that if he wanted to expand, he would be seeking at least $600k and perhaps more than that in this WeFunder campaign. The fact he only wants $300k indicates to me that he is okay with it not securing the amount needed to open a new location so long as he gets fund to continue to pay himself and his colleagues.
You also have to wonder if Parsi would be willing to agree to put any funds received from WeFunder in escrow to be used only for the purpose of expansion? The fact that he basically spent the offering money on non-expansion related things is proof that he doesn't really care about expanding. If it happens, great, but he is going to look out for himself before he cares about the shareholders and investors.
Good point. And it depends on my goals. Am I trading or buying and holding? AVXL at these prices look tempting no doubt. But many were saying that at $3, and $5, and $7, and even $10.
It all depends on whether you think the drug will be approved. If it is, $10 will be cheap. If it isn't, .20 will seem expensive.
I like your math but you're forgetting one very important variable: insurance companies.
At least in the United States, insurance companies are unlikely to pay the full cost -- they'll negotiate a reduced rate. And it'll take FOREVER to get them on board with actually covering the drug, even if it's proven to work. Insurance companies are just like that, they'll gladly take your money but good luck getting them to cover something they deem "experimental." And most people won't be able to afford to pay out of pocket. So while on paper your numbers make sense, when you factor in the insurance industry, I would suggest bringing them down a bit.
Retts has potential -- at the very least it will make AVXL cash flow positive, which is the first step. But I stand by my assertion that AD is the real prize and the reason 99% of us have money invested in AVXL.
Surprise news would be great, assuming that it's positive. There are lots of instances where biotech issue surprise news that drops the price 90% in one day. Whether AVXL surprises us with good or bad news remains to be seen. But it appears to me that Missling, barring an offer he can't refuse, wants to retain ownership until the very end because that gives him the most leverage to negotiate a favorable partnership or buyout. What have you seen that makes you believe he will issue surprise news early, and what do you think that news will be?
Seems optimistic to me, but I'll gladly take it!
I've been here since 2015. Was a part of the FB chat for a while. Many here are friends of mine on FB.
I haven't soured on this stock at all -- that won't happen until the lights are officially turned off with a failed P3 trial -- but I no longer think that my initial timeframe was a realistic one, and it's forced me to adjust how I treat this stock. Namely, I'll hold a core position and trade the peaks and valleys. Right now we are in a valley.
I've found that if I add a year or two to my initial expectations, I'll be pleasantly surprised. So if you think H2 2019, that would be terrific! But I think the order we see is Retts, AD, Parkinson's, Epilepsy.
I agree, but when is the PDD trial expected to have results? Not for a while, right? And that's my point. AVXL has lots of potential paths, but none of the roads are fully paved yet. So it'll take some time and in the meantime, downward selling pressure should continue.
There are enough retail investors with a high enough dollar average to buy at these levels to average down. That's why I suspect there will be a short-lived pop and then the next wave down.
Someone earlier commented how AVXL is mirroring the IBB. I think today shows this is not the case. DJIA up 500+ points, throw a dart at any ticker symbol and it's green, IBB up 5%, but AVXL in the red.
And the reason is because now is the time to invest money elsewhere, find those blue chips that rarely have 20% off sales, with the comfort of knowing that you can get back in AVXL just about anytime. Maybe you buy back slightly higher, but odds are the AAPLs and GOOGLs and JNJs etc will yield a higher percentage increase in that timeframe which makes the alternative options worth it.
The bigger point to me about Retts isn't the efficacy or the safety, though I do agree both are benefits of the trial.
The safety has been demonstrated, albeit in a small trial, and it's unlikely that the drug will prove to be unsafe in a larger population.
The main benefit of a successful Retts trial, aside from helping those who have Retts, is that it can expedite approval for 273. At that point, some doctors may be willing to prescribe the drug for off-label use for other indications. Moreover, if it's already approved for one disease it makes it much easier to get approval if the AD trials are positive, since the drug has already been vetted by the FDA the first time around.
So I'm not discounting the importance of the Retts trial at all. My point was more that for most of us, Retts wasn't on the radar when we invested in AVXL. And the big prize is getting approval for AD, followed by Parkinson's, followed by epilepsy, etc.
If Retts is the path we take to get there, great! But a Retts drug getting to market in and of itself isn't going to create a lasting pop in the stock price. It'll help, but it won't be the big gains everyone here is waiting for. That will come when the AD results are positive.
Fair point, but if that is the case, why are they not fully enrolled today? They've had the genome sequencing data for a while now, they know exactly the type of candidates they're looking for, and as you said, there is no shortage of potential applicants in Australia.
No, it's a good idea. As a parent myself I would love it if there were a similar concept in my hometown. It rains a lot where I live and the indoor playgrounds here are only so-so, and I like that Giggles offers fun activities too every 30 minutes or so.
That said, it's generic in the sense that there is absolutely nothing proprietary about this concept. Giggles doesn't have the name brand to expand via franchising and Joey knows it. For the $600k+ or so it would cost to franchise, an investor could use that same amount of money or maybe a tiny bit more and open an identical concept and keep 100% control and 100% ownership. So why would someone franchise a Giggles n Hugs. Because Beyonce went there? Beyonce would go to any similar type of place with her kid -- there's nothing specific about Giggles that makes people want to go there over another restaurant that offers the same activities, same playground, and same quality of food.
I'd be willing to bet that we could crowdfund a competing location in Los Angeles just with investors from this message board, and within a year we'd see Giggles' revenue fall significantly because of the competition.
If there is any comfort it is this: Parsi is stupid. And even in a reincarnated, private version, he will probably run the reorganized company into the ground. Just look at his track record so far.
$10 years, $9M+ invested, and he's reached the point where he is not even able to crowdsource a measly $300,000 to open half a location somewhere, despite having some of the biggest names in the restaurant industry attached to his concept.
Hint: it's because they're not really full-time employees. They're consultants.
According to the CEO, $650k+ is spent annually on staying public and his salary. Then factor in the additional administrative costs for employee salaries, food costs, insurance, utilities, marketing, etc.
There is no way this goes up with the company being mismanaged like that. Two locations simply cannot produce the sort of revenue needed to overcome the cash flow problem.
The fact that Joey publicly stated that on the individual level the stores are profitable but at the corporate level it isn't was a major red flag for me. This indicates a solid idea that is being poorly managed. And it is not sustainable for the long term.
Short term pop followed by a plateau followed up by a slow decline through mid-2019, until the price stabilizes out a bit as everyone waits for signs of life from the company in terms of trial updates/announcements on the Retts front.
I think you misread what I wrote. They'll enroll and dose as they go but to get the full 300 or so trial participants will take some time. And I do not believe they will end the trial early. So we won't see trial results until the last patient has gone through treatment.
I do think that the Retts trial will have a shorter timeframe. But I don't think that the Retts news will generate nearly as much excitement in the market as the AD trials -- none of us got into AVXL because it was working on a Rett's treatment.
It's the perfect investment for me. I like to gamble, take risks, and acknowledge that not all will be winners but hopefully the ones that do win more than make up for the losers.
I am still undecided whether AVXL will be a winner or a loser. I wish I had the same optimism that many here do, but I also know that AVXL's Sigma 1 theory is just as much as a stab in the dark as any other -- and even if Sigma 1 is the path forward, is A273 going to be effective or will it take additional research?
Remember when everyone thought that Anavex Plus was going to be the panacea? Then out of the blue it was revealed that Anavex + Aricept really isn't any more effective than Anavex alone. Nobody knows how this is going to play out -- not the people who say this is going to $1000 and not the people who say this is going to 0. I have my core shares, I have some trading shares, and I sit patiently on the sidelines and observe the weekly price action as I see it.
The fact that Anavex hasn't partnered yet is either a really good sign or a really bad sign. Either Missling knows he has a winning hand and just needs the rest of the deck to be dealt before he can show it, or he's not holding a good hand, everyone else knows it, but he's hoping that somehow he wins the hand on the river (if you're into poker you'll get the analogy).
We'll see what happens. But I am not expecting any major price moves upward for at least a year -- and I wouldn't be surprised to see continued selling pressure until the risk is all but gone which is a long time away.
Explain how it is false? The company has stated lots of things that it ultimately backtracked from over the years (i.e. when the P2A trial date would conclude, via extending it for an additional X number of years).
Assuming it takes 6 months to enroll the AD trial and the AD trial lasts 12 months but let's suppose the data is so terrific they stop it at six months, we're a year away from AD results.
Assuming it takes on average 10 months for the FDA to make a decision but Anavex can fast-track it to three months, we're now at 15 months from today.
A LOT of people were 100% certain that we'd have the P3 trial started by this time last year. Go back and read the message board posts from last October and November, based on Missling's comments at the time.
But why don't you provide your anticipated timeline of events so we can check back a year from now? If you're right, that would be incredible. I hope the timeline is sooner. But to say it is false just because the company has stated otherwise implies that the company MUST stand by its comments, which is absolutely not the case. These things tend to take a lot longer than expected to materialize.
I'm sorry to hear about your father. Alzheimer's is an awful disease (and I know many who are suffering from early stages of memory loss).
You have the right attitude -- if you believe that A273 is the next big thing in AD treatment, buy and buy some more because whether your avg. price is $10 or .10, you're still going to make a really nice return on the investment.
If you're trading this stock, AVXL is going to cause a lot of pain in the short term because the only real catalyst for a significant pop in the share price is trial data and/or partnership. We KNOW that the data is at least a year or two away -- they haven't even finished enrolling the trials yet. And while anything can happen with a surprise partnership announcement, the fact that AVXL has enough runway to get through the next 15 months or longer means that a partnership isn't urgent either. Missling is either very confident in the final outcome, or he's a gambler -- maybe a bit of both?
I don't like the short term outlook for Anavex stock because I see a company with no revenue and lots of expenses, and no immediately way to generate profits. And no sure thing that the primary asset even has any value. There isn't any cabal -- just lots of impatient retail holders who bought high and have reached the point where they're willing to sell low.
I love the long term outlook because if the drug turns out to be legit, it's an absolute game changer.
Unfortunately, we're at least a year or more away from finding out if this is the case. Another year or three isn't a long time for the patient investor. It's an eternity for the impatient investor and/or trader.
Lol yup!
AVXL is certainly more volatile. But AVXL's performance is significantly worse than the typical biotech, because of the many reasons I mentioned earlier:
1. No revenue
2. No urgency -- trial are a long way away from even starting, let alone getting results
3. No guarantee -- even if the trials concluded tomorrow, there is still a significant risk that the data isn't going to be good.
4. Other, profitable companies are currently on sale.
Doesn't take a finance expert to know that combination is not a good one for any company, AVXL included. It doesn't mean squat for the long term, AVXL could trade .001 one morning and $50 the next which is why many of us are invested in this -- the possible grand slam outcome.
But to say that AVXL mirrors the IBB is misleading -- if it were in flux within, say, 10% or so, sure, but when its performance is 50% worse -- I don't think it's fair to call that mirroring. Perhaps you disagree, and that is your choice.
I agree. Parsi tries to act like because he is the largest shareholder he is affected too, and because Gay is receiving shares instead of salary that somehow matters.
The reality is that they could let this tank, file for Chapter 11, and re-emerge with a creditor/investor who receives new equity. Parsi and Gay would then negotiate an equity package that provides an almost identical amount of ownership. Easy way for someone with a few million to invest to make a lot more than if he or she invested in the offering...
I know what an index is. And I know what mirroring is, too.
If AVXL were mirroring the index, it would be dropping at around the same rate.
It isn't.
AVXL is dropping much worse than the index itself -- which would imply that if anything, AVXL is dragging the index down and not vice versa.
1. It's not bashing if what you're doing is reporting the facts. I haven't seen any mistruths or factual inaccuracies posted here.
2. Nobody is investing or not investing in Giggles based on message board posts. It takes only a cursory amount of research for anyone to realize that Joey Parsi is a scumbag and a terrible CEO whose ineptitude has run a great concept into the ground.
The fact is that he is spending $400,000+ on staying public -- a number that seems awfully high if you ask me given the small scope of his company's operations. He's taking $200k+ for managing two locations, AND they have GMs who handle the day-to-day.
What is Parsi doing that justifies his salary?
In reality, this looks more and more like a shareholder-funded vehicle to transfer funds from shareholders to Parsi and Gay.
Gay is taking his salary in shares -- is this a fixed number of shares every month or does he receive more shares as the stock price decreases?
Parsi's salary is not tied to performance -- and that is a problem because he has zero incentive to make this work as long as he is content with his annual salary.
Not bashing. Just speaking the truth.
AVXL is down 4% today, IBB down 1.3% today. Since 12/3, the IBB is down 20%. AVXL is down 40%.
I don't think "mirroring" is the verb that you meant to use.
And you are certainly free to do so. Disagreement is good.
But,,,there are many here who at this time last year believed Anavex would be above $10 by 2019. There were some who thought it would be above $100. Very few people here believed it would be at $1.
So, disagreement is good but I think a word of caution is to look at the overall picture. Right now it's bleak. This isn't to say it's all Dr. Missling;s fault -- he cannot control the economy. But why should someone invest in Anavex right now? What is the urgency since we all know that trials, and trial results, are a long way away.
Unless you think Missling is going to surprise everyone with a partnership or buyout PR, there's no incentive or urgency to buy AVXL right now...
Likewise. For at least a few days it'll be nice to forget about stock market declines.
A good part of AVXL's drop is just overall market conditions + tax selling.
But, a good part of it as well has to do with the fact that it's simply not a good stock to own right now. No trial results for a long, long time + no revenue + everything else is on sale = no urgency to buy AVXL and incentive to buy other stocks that will go back up when the market turns.
Anavex is at least 18 months away from FDA approval, probably closer to 24-36 months. Figure it takes another year to enroll the trials, 6-9 months minimum for the trials to be conducted, and another 10 months or so for the FDA to approve.
Under a dollar soon. My guess is by February.
A lot of that selling was me. I'm out. I can see the writing on the wall -- Parsi has absolutely no credibility and no way to raise money.
Banks obviously won't lend to him, and now that interest rates are higher any money he can secure from a lender will be expensive to repay.
Shareholders don't trust him enough to continue to fund his operations.
Random investors aren't going to be conned into funding a single location -- the math doesn't justify the risk given his poor track record.
But the final straw for me was reading that he's spending $400,000/year (or more or less a location per year that could be expanded) on administrative costs. This never, ever should have gone public with only three locations -- but Parsi's ego wanted him to be able to say he's CEO of a public company.
I could look past Parsi's propensity to overpromise and underdeliver because the idea is solid, and I thought that Philip Gay as CEO would be able to leverage his professional network. But Gay is being paid in shares which further adds to the dilution, and I think the market responded appropriately when Parsi later announced he was returning as Co-CEO.
Either Parsi didn't have the foresight to properly vet Philip Gay's ability to handle the role full-time, or he knew in advance that this would be a part-time agreement and didn't convey that to the shareholders when he announced he was stepping down. Either way, it's a sign of incompetence at best and dishonesty at worse, and is par for the course with Parsi. I wouldn't trust this guy to watch my pets while I was out of town, and I sure don't trust him to run a company -- unless I were betting that he is going to run it into the ground.
The worst part? I'm sure Parsi could get malls to pay for a new location but he doesn't seem willing to put his restaurants in lower-tier malls. He wants to be in the premier malls (again, ego!) alongside Apple and Neiman-Marcus, but he fails to realize that these malls do not need to roll out the red carpet. They're doing fine. Its the less desirable malls that need an anchor tenant, but Joey thinks his brand value is higher than it really is, and this is why we haven't seen any expansion.
I can see this heading straight to Chapter 11 in due time. That, or the two stores will do just enough to keep the lights on while Parsi collects his salary. Think about it: $600,000/year is going toward financial administrative costs and Parsi's salary -- for two locations. How much net income are they bringing in that is going to the shareholders after these expenses? Hmmm....
And the biggest problem of all -- this idea is way too simple to replicate. Joey likes to brag about all the celebrities that have visited -- fair enough, but they aren't going to Giggles n Hugs because of Joey Parsi. Any competition in Los Angeles will do just as well. And its not like this is a difficult concept to replicate, either. Healthy food, a playground, some toys, rotating fun activities, and hire energetic, customer-friendly staff. Anyone can do it.
Good luck to all. I might re-enter when this bottoms out under .0005 for a quick flip. But I doubt it.
PS: Has anyone called him out for proof that Tanofran is renovating and that is why the deal fell apart? Because I can't find any recent news about widespread renovations. Also, the Westfield Century City Mall is more or less re-opened -- the fact that Giggles is no longer there speaks volumes. You'd think that if Giggles provided so much foot traffic, Westfield would be doing all it could to get Giggles back in there ASAP!
Nah, I don't think that's the case.
The truth is that nobody knows whether A273 will be effective or not. The world's top scientists are at odds with how Alzheimer's works and how best to treat it. It could even be that plaque theory is correct but nobody's come up with an effective way to remove plaque over the long term before the damage is done?
If Anavex's drug fails, which it very well may, this stock goes to zero. Doubtful that Missling will be able to raise more cash for A371, and the other IP will be sold to creditors/scalpers for pennies on the dollar.
On the other hand, if 273 does work, Anavex becomes a $1B+ company overnight. Maybe even a $5B company. I don't think anything more than $5B is realistic, but who knows? Either way, the AVXL ticker will be one of the most trending ones the following morning after FDA approval is announced.
That's the gamble we are all here for. I put the odds at 20%, but from a risk/reward perspective, it's worth having a bit of cash in there. Someone is eventually going to come up with a drug that replaces Aricept -- and as of now, Anavex has as good a chance as any to be that company.
I'm going to bookmark this and come back to it three months from now.
I hope you are right but I have a feeling this will be a post that doesn't age well...
There is no cabal. When was the last time that Adam Feuerstein or any of his friends mentioned Anavex?
Who exactly is this "cabal" you speak of? Which influential person has been telling his or her followers to short Anavex in recent months?
The reason the stock price is dropping is because it's a lousy short-term investment. There is zero revenue, and cash burn every quarter. That's a bad combination but unfortunately one that most startups, and especially biotech startups, have to overcome.
Right now just about every stock is on sale from recent highs -- and we know there aren't many real catalysts for Anavex in the short term. Even if the trials all started tomorrow, it would be months or years before we get any results. And then there's the risk the results may not be good. But as it stands today, the trials aren't even anywhere close to being fully enrolled as far as we know.
So once again, there's no urgency to buy this stock right now. And it will continue to go down until that urgency exists -- which will happen once the trials are underway, and then once again if/when the results are positive, and again if/when the FDA approves the drug.
The risk of not holding is that at any minute Anavex could announce a partnership or buyout. But Missling has all but said his plan is to go at it alone for as long as possible to tilt leverage in his favor.
It's not the cabal. It's the stock itself being a terrible short term play, but an interesting long term gamble.
My theory is that most investors realize AVXL is dead money until we get trial results which are months/years away. Meanwhile, lots of good blue chips are on sale in this bear market correction. So it makes sense to sell AVXL for the time being.
$1.20s on their way.
Good buying if you believe in the science but if your all-in on avxl the short term looks like it's going to be painful
Yup, writing was on the wall for the 1s.
And it ain't going to get any better before it gets worse, other than a short-term correction when the bear market comes to a grind and reverses temporarily until the next downward wave.
That's the bad news: the bottom isn't yet in sight.
The good news? The bottom is meaningless if/when we find out the 273 drug is the real deal. That's the game changer that matters. I disagree with many (most?) here that the EV for AVXL will ever surpass $5B, but I've been wrong before so who knows. Even so, I think the $3B range is more than realistic with positive P3 trial results.
50/50 this will be 1.30s by end of next month. Under a buck shortly after that.
The ONLY thing that matters is news. Until then, there's going to be lots more selling. Longs have more or less bought their positions and are adding incrementally as the price drops. The typical risk averse investor is going to wait to see how this plays out, no point buying until there's positive news. Less gains but much less risk.
Funds more or less cannot touch this under $5, except for some small mom and pop type places or the really big funds that buy a nominal amount as part of their index portfolios.
Meanwhile, the more Missling stays silent, the more of a sure thing it is that this hits $1.30 or lower.
Dow up nearly 300 points...
AVXL bleeding red.
Go figure. Stink bidders rejoice!
Not the bottom. If/when the drug doesn't work, then you'll see the bottom.
If the drug does work, this price today is irrelevant.
I agree. I am bullish on the drug itself based on the little I know about how it works and the results so far, but there are a lot more factors outside of Anavex's control -- access to cash being one of them.
It wouldn't surprise me when all is said and done for this to be fully diluted at 100M shares. Granted, if the drug works and is worth $5B or so, then $50/share isn't all that bad of a return -- even from its previous high of $14.
And you don't think that there is a possibility this offering is more about Joey raising cash for paying himself, and taking care of other G&A, rather than expansion? Knowing that $300k is nowhere near enough to open a new location, you'd think he would have set the minimum at $700k or more. d
$300,000 does nothing for Giggles' expansion hopes. Would you agree?