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AWRCF--+.55 to $4.25 today as volume picked up after a long dead period. The ask at the close was $5 !!! Drove my portfolio to an all time high. Doesn't mean much because I couldn't sell my position when it is so thinly traded. Still nice to see it go up.
CSCT--Closed under $15 and has been under some real selling pressure the last 1-2 weeks after climbing over $18 recently. Perhaps, some of the larger investors are figuring it will take time to consolidate and digest recent acquisitions before earnings will benefit.
Wade--Re tough market. I noticed that your analysis is very U.S. economy focused and yet so many of the U.S. listed stocks we discuss here are non US companies. I don't have any U.S. company investments because of many of the concerns you mention except for a small "legacy" amount of MDF I have left (only .5% of portfolio) and some C C E L (real dog, down 35% since I've owned it). Combined the two only make up 3% of my porfolio. 60% of my portfolio is made up of 4 chinese stocks: CSCT (19%), HRBN (16%), A W R C F (16%) and FSIN (9%). 37% of my portfolio is made up of pinksheet listings for 6 Canadian mining companies: BLE, HBM, LBE, T A M, C M L, TGB with the largest position at 8% and the smallest 2%. I really don't like 2% positions because I don't feel like they can really impact my portfolio much one way or the other.
I had a string of about 10-12 consecutive daily all time portfolio highs until today when the miners stopped cooperating. I am up 48% this year so far and my (unrealized) gains are starting to dwarf what I make at work. It has been very gratifying on the one hand, but very surreal on the other. Of course I realize my portfolio concentration is risky. I have weathered some nasty downturns (one day I was down 9%.)
My point is that I think non US companies, particularly Chinese companies with domestic (i.e. non export based) revenues will outperform US companies. In a recent post you asked about PE rates for Chinese microcaps. I think they deserve higher PE rates than comparable US based companies. Their economy is growing so as to sustain strong growth in revenues and earnings. Their currency is undervalued by all accounts. Every quarter there is a currency gain when they report their earnings in dollars. Their government fiscal policies and trade surpluses make for a far more positive long term outlook than the US. Nonetheless, many BB Chinese stocks still trade at sub 10 PEs. Given their platform for growth (especially as measured in US $$) I still see great opportunity.
As has been pointed out by others who know far more than I do, many of the mining stocks are trading at very low (sub 5)PEs especially if you extrapolate upcoming earnings based upon higher production and much higher metal prices. Seems like the consummate value play even though some have run up quite a bit. A stock like HBM I consider to be ballast in my portfolio with relatively little downside risk. You also diversify away from the US $$ into the less embattled Canadian $$.
I think it will become increasingly important to think and invest globally to continue to generate superior returns.
GWY pinksheet symbol is GWYRF. I looked it up up stockhouse.com. See Bobwins. I can learn...
GORO--I sold most of mine for a small loss today and put the proceeds into HBM. GORO probably has more long term potential but I think HBM has less midterm (6-12 months) downside risk and more short term (0-6 months) upside potential. We'll see.
TAM--I too am very appreciative to those of you who were pushing TAM. I bought a good chunk at an average price of just under .60. Because of the run up it is a higher % of my portfolio than it probably should be for a flyer. I agree that it stills seems undervalued, although that doesn't mean there couldn't be a major correction. Any opinions on a price range where it would be approaching fair value?
HBM--Does it have a pink symbol?
FSIN--Up 52% since my 3/27 post re pending earnings announcement. I have built up a position about 2/3 of what I normally take. I have made some money but have been frustrated because I have tried to be patient and not chase it too much each day only to have to pay more the next day!! I got off to a slow start building my position because etrade wouldn't let me buy the stock online--saying they had restricted it. I was on vacation in Hawaii last week ( market opens at 3:30am local time!!) and called etrade on 4/3 to get the restriction lifted and to buy some on the phone for $8.50 where it closed. The next day it closed at $9.70 on very high volume and has moved up quickly since and I have to wonder how much etrade volume had to do with it. Just curious if others of you have a position as well.
CSCT--Announced more significant M&A deals this morning that will be immediately accretive according to PR. Look to be building a dominant firm in a fragmented industry through a healthy combination of organic growth and accretive acquisitions. Only "problem" is that it becomes pretty hard to analyze/estimate EPS with all the moving parts, so could take months and a few quarterly filings to get a real consolidated picture. I think it is very significant that senior management recently agreed not to sell any shares for a few years. They, at least, believe that holding for the long term will be profitable.
HRBN--Closed at all time high today of $14.65 equating to a 16.5 PE based on Dutton's latest 2007 diluted EPS estimate of .89. Stock has run up 17% in last two trading sessions on no announced news. Getting closer to a 20 PE where I would consider starting to sell. Hopefully, 1st Q results and/or more specific guidance would increase the .89 EPS estimate. As a NASDAQ listed stock, with some good news it could trade much higher than a 20 PE but am disinclined to hold at those PE levels. Always tempted to make an exception for a "story" stock (because it's going to be the next MSFT), but have learned that bid up "darlings" rarely defy gravity for long. I started buying in 11/05 and have a big position at an average cost of $8.08. It peeked at over $13 in early '06 then traded down into the $7's by the end of '06. Has bounced back stongly on the heels of the NASDAQ listing despite quarterly numbers which were respectable but not great. Time for management to deliver an upside quarter--which may be what this recent run up foreshadows.
HRBN--Just hit all time high of $13.81 on very little volume. If they ever report some really good "achieved" news instead of future promise this low floater could explode.
With all the market focus on nickel, moly, zinc etc. is some of the air being sucked out of gold stocks? Mine are sideways to down.
CSCT--Volume today already 3X normal as it builds a new base of believers at this higher share price. Bullish sign IMO.
CSCT--Somebody desparately wants to own it today--up to 17.50 vs. 16.50 previous all time high. Annualized 4th Q diluted EPS about 1.00 so clearly not a value here. I will sell half if/when it hits 20 or maybe prior to next earnings announcement if it gets close.
CSCT--Hitting all time highs today. Now my largest position after selling half of my LIM.
DKAM--Looks like a classic momo pump and dump price swing.
FSIN--2morrow--Only one problem with my DD prior to earnings announcement--I didn't buy any!! Does seem like a very solid story as they have a product with rapidly increasing demand and good margins. Their forward guidance focused on unit sales growth instead of revenues because commodity prices make revs impossible to predict with any accuracy. Their income guidance looks very conservative compared to unit sales guidance--so I expect it will be a case of underpromise and overdeliver. They are expanding production and the sales team so there could be some expensed (vs. capital) costs there which could dampen earnings growth somewhat this year. Any way you look at it, I think it is a very well managed, fast growing company trading under a 10 going forward PE--much cheaper than HRBN and CSCT which I also like and own.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AWRCF--Pop goes the weasel!!
Networm--Re Chinese stocks. I disagree. My 3 largest positions CSCT, HRBN and a non reporter have been moving up recently--including today.
FSIN--This a Chinese wire maker which was a Lentinman six pick as well as another Chinese company that Citadel has financed along with HRBN and CSCT. I got interested because of my position in non reporter A W R C F, also a wire maker. FSIN combines aluminum with copper which is cheaper so their marker is growing very quickly. They presented at the Roth conference in February and filed their presentation which is pretty impressive. If you look at it, you will see unaudited 4th Q and annual numbers presented which show record quarterly revenues and diluted EPS for the Q of .24 which represents a going forward PE of 7.5 based on yesterday's 7.24 closing price. You will note that quarterly revs and earnings have jumped around the last few quarters so the big 4th Q could be followed by a more modest 1st Q.
Interestingly, they are going to "announce" 4th Q and annual earnings this Thursday after market close even though they have already previewed them very specifically. However, the market could react to their great 4th Q on Friday after the PR and cc on Thursday afternoon--especially if they offer some exciting guidance for this year. Having Citadel involved provides an extra layer of comfort because their loan docs are full of reps, warranties, covenants that make it harder for management to self deal etc. Would appreciate any other views here.
LIM--I'm not complaining, but I feel like a long term value investor trapped in an arb investor's body!! Not really sure how to evaluate potential outcomes. Don't really think the $130 million termination payment is high enough to stop other offers as it only represents about 3% of a very low offer. I haven't sold any yet, but if it hits new highs tomorrow I might invoke the decisiophobic's strategy and sell half. I usually swing for the fences--but not when I'm out of my league!!
LIM Offer: That's U.S. $15.95 for those of us invested through LMGGF. The termination fee of $130 million is low enough that a higher offer could absorb it. I think it's worth a lot more but we'll have to see if anybody else steps up. As the offers get higher cash usually starts to be mixed with stock.
HRBN-2morrow-Dutton Report earnings upgrade. Since it's paid research and they clearly have excellent access to management and info, I consider their earnings forecast to be a proxy for forward guidance by the company. Why would you pay someone to publish earnings estimates that you thought were too high or too low?
CML.V-As I was just starting to learn about junior miners a few months ago, I studied CML and, consistent with my style of taking larger positions in few stocks, took up my largest junior miner position. Of course, it seemed like everything went up except CML for a while so I'm pleased about recent move. Not exactly a "TRGD" move yet but heading in the right direction. Management seems very measured and professional to me, and the latest numbers certainly suggest multibagger potential.
BLE--Thanks to all for your very helpful input. I'm going to hold and get a better understanding from this earnings report.
BLE.TO--c1001 or Bobwins or anyone--any guesses re diluted per share earnings next week? I am having a hard time looking back and putting the pieces together because of large recent acquisition. I have enjoyed the recent run up and am a little nervous that we could get a post earnings sell off.
HRBN--As was previously posted First Wilshire filed recently confirming an 11% position. I don't understand how they could build up such a large position without having to previously file. It would take them a very long time to accumulate their position in the open market so i'm thinking they bought at least some of it from other large SHs, but nobody has filed a Form 4 yet so I guess it wasn't 5%+ SHs. I'm wondering if somehow an early backer sold out. Anybody have any other thoughts?
AWRCF--Stan--The bid was up to $4 today!! Should rise to at least that price when it's posted later. Starting to get interesting. I wonder what the %$@!#&^$%#$#@ is going on!!
EGY--Must be getting cheap under $5. Has anybody estimated what '07 diluted EPS will be at current oil prices based on the guidance in the last PR of production of "20,000 gross barrels per day" for the balance of the year?
EGY--Good question, worthy. Now it's even cheaper. I'm sure someone will reply eventually.
Skidos--On the criteria we are all stupid...
EGY--Must be getting cheap under $5. Has anybody estimated what '07 diluted EPS will be at current oil prices based on the guidance in the last PR of production of "20,000 gross barrels per day" for the balance of the year?
CSCT--abh3vt--You make a good case for further upside but "Mr. Market" isn't buying it today. All its really given back is the pre earnings run up late last week. Who are those idiots who scramble to get in just before earnings when 1)they have no idea what they will be and 2) no idea how the stock will respond even to strong earnings? How do they stay solvent?
I think CSCT is turning into a significant company now with 2006 revs almost as high as AOB, much higher EPS now that AOB laid an egg, and probably a product where they can emerge as the "go to" provider.
HRBN-2morrow re First Wilshire. Nice to know we're not the only ones drinking the koolaid!!
CSCT-Michael t--It will be interesting to see what the stock does this morning especially after the run up late last week.
HRBN--First Wilshire just filed 13g--looks like they are largest institutional SH now.
CSCT-- Annual 2006 and annualized 4th Q earnings about the same at .88 which is around 17 PE. Revenues and earnings in 4th Q were solid but down sequentially from 3rd Q which was an off the charts record. At the risk of sounding too simplistic, growth companies are supposed to GROW SEQUENTIALLY EVERY QUARTER. When they don't and don't issue guidance, every Q becomes a guessing game and their "non value" PEs can decline quickly with an uninspiring Q. They have had explosive sales growth over the past 2 years. Now they need to stop diluting themselves so that growth can boost EPS. Can't figure out whether to hang in here or not--this and HRBN are both starting to feel more like "fingercrossers" than reliable earnings producers. Anybody else have thoughts about CSCT's quarter?
Stan,
The ask is up to $4 today after higher than average volume on Friday. Somebody thinks it's worth owning. Really hard to tell about timing of financials given legal dispute. I wouldn't want to steer you in either direction because it could be years (and how much higher can the stock go with no numbers?) and it could settle tomorrow (not a prediction) which could cause the stock to run especially if accompanied by some news on how 2006 financials look on an unaudited basis and outlook for 2007. I am holding because I have a large enough position that it can't be unwound at these volumes. If I had a smaller position and got excited about another stock, I could see unloading it now at a nice LT gain into a cleaner story. Good luck whatever you decide to do.
CSCT--Really running up last two trading days before Monday's after hours earnings announcement. Maybe announcement scheduled well before filing required is construed as a good sign. Although I'm holding into earnings and like seeing the stock price rise, I don't really understand why somebody would chase it before earnings when even good earnings sometimes don't cause the price to rise.