lj: AMD put to me at $107. Subtract $2.15 a share, the proceeds from writing the contract, and my NET cost is $1.85 a share less a small commission. The closing price was quite a shocker. It is "dead money" for the foreseeable future, in that I expect a vicious tech selloff in October, maybe sooner. So, I should be carefully following the SQQQ options.
VTLE: Yes, $59 does seem "way up there", unfortunately. Gasoline prices seemed to have topped around here.
So, either the glut continues or people are driving a lot less now that vacation season is over.

DD: Your usual responses is "Trump did it, too", and now U are accusing his kids of doing what Hunter Biden has done.
Sad. Pathetic.

VTLE: They were smart to get out, imo. Very smart.
The stock is dead money for the time being.
Now I can watch DVN drop. I hope it doesn't happen, but I'm not optimistic.
OT: I sold an AMD $107 put that closed today. It looked like a cake walk to the finish line yesterday. Closed today at $41 and change. What a difference a day makes.
Oh, well.

DD: Don't have a conniption fit when they indict Hunter Biden for being an unregistered foreign agent.

lj: U can only guess, after honing in on what they make public. I think we have to worry more about the general economy.
If demand for oil drops, their revenues will go down no matter what their depletion rate is. They haven't written hedge contracts for 100 percent of their oil. It is hard to be optimistic about their prospects for Q4. Yikes--smacking my thick skull--we are 2 weeks from Q4!

lj: The usual rule that a rising tide raises all ships has not been working of late.
One thought is that there is not a lot of confidence in the oil price staying up.
Another is that a glut of gasoline means let oil being refined, but that does not seem possible when U look at VLO's chart.
It is above my pay grade.
Let's just say the o&g market is very inefficient right how.
(By the way, the political scene could translate into a huge sellofof--Dems are starting to peck at ol' White Joe's head.
He is toast. Can the W.H. pump starch into Biden for the budget negotiations. In other words, will be remember what they tell him to say.) As the Nittany Lion fans chant to the Red Tide, "Round th bowl, down the hole"!

So here is the 411 on the UAW strike:
First, here is an article to read: https://www.yahoo.com/news/don-t-know-done-uaw-101510516.html The gist of the article is that a UAW member doesn't know what Biden wants.
Well, anyone who listens to Steve Bannons' "War Room" knows what Biden wants.
He wants to go to Rehoboth Beach and sun himself. However, the Obama crowd who are running this country want the UAW to strike.
The Acting Secretary of Labor, Julie Soo, is a stone-cold Marxist, an "old student Maoist". She and Secy. of Labor Deb Harland are working in the interest of China to cripple the U.S. economy.
Congress wouldn't confirm Soo's appointment, but Obama told the W.H. to keep her in the job anyway, which they have done.
U cannot make this stuff up.
By the way, the "Freedom Road Socialist Organization", a pro-Chinese Commie group, has infiltrated the Teamsters. Their target: the port at Long Beach California and all of the warehouses in the inland empire. It appears they are deliberately targeting the supply chain.
The above are the thoughts of Trevor Loudon, who has been studying the infiltration of the U.S. by the CCP.
The CCP already has influence over 40 U.S. Senators and members of the House, it goes without saying.
WE ARE IN BIG, BIG TROUBLE.

DD: Maybe you are a
"shitgibbon", too, but don't know it????
I don't know U, so I couldn't possibly comment.

lj: Despite the best efforts of big tech cloud companies in laying off scores of thousands of employees, the Fed is not WINing (WIN--Whip Inflation Now). U might be too young to remember the acronym. My guess is that they will raise 1/4 point.
The higher interest rates are hurting regional banks in a big way.
Truist is going to be laying off lots of employees, allegedly because they have not achieved the economies of scale Wall Street expected from the marriage of banks Suntrust and B&T.
There still is a shortage of residential real estate because people who refinanced don't want to pay a much higher rate if they trade up. Housing prices will stay inflated until there is a major recession.
Its a jungle out there.

lj: VTLE
At this point, plain and simple, it looks like a bad deal. I didn't smack my head until I got to the part about water restrictions. They should hire Nancy Pelosi as their PR person.
Thank you for an EXCELLENT update and analysis.

lj: Lee
My sources tell me that the water in the mid-Atlantic is less than 80 degrees, so the Gulf Stream won't do much.

lj: The radiation might be a BIG headache for PEAR. (Given this issue, the CEO might want to change his surname. Bad connotation.) I wouldn't be surprised if China doesn't follow suit--in banning the iphone 12, that is, not in changing its name, to say, Porcelain.)
Interesting that you mentioned the glut of ngas recently. I notice that Devon's (DVN) quarterly dividend is down to a paltry .20.
Didn't realize that DVN is a variable-dividend o&g stock.
DDD on my part (deficient due diligence).
And so we watch . . . and wonder.

littlejohn: The last time VTLE did a round of hedging, management didn't look so smart.
If oil goes up to $90 or more and sticks later in the year, expect VTLE to do another swan dive.

lj: REI
The statistics look great, but the stock is another dog. With a low price and great stats, momentum might push it up one of these days. Later not sooner, imo. If it happens, sell, sell, sell.

lj: VTLE
Thank you for the update. If it isn't one thing with them, it's another.

lj; The cheapest petrol in these here parts is $3.58, which is not so bad. In the better neighborhoods, it is $3.70 and up.
There still must be a glut of gasoline. That is the only explanation for the current prices after a significant increase in the price of oil. Gasoline has risen, but not high enough to make me believe gasoline inventories aren't high. Now, what about the changeover from summer to winter blends. That should be happening now?
OT: As soon as the winter-formula windshield wiper fluid hits the shelf at Walmart, I am stocking up. My extra bottle of summer-formula windshield wiper fluid in the shed froze last winter, warping the plastic bottle.

lj: The U.S. Government (military, I think) uses that area of Nevada to calibrate satellites. It is perfectly flat, and allegedly it is the only place in the U.S. they can do that.

lj: Very good report. Lee is incredibly slow. Still no impact yet on beaches up here in the Yankee North--Maryland and Delaware. No one is talking about Lee.
Libya is a failed State thanks to Madame Clinton and her idiot former boss. "We came, we saw, we killed Kadaffi". In fairness, if there were a stable Government thre , those dams might not have been fixed.

lj: When U go to the raw bar, pass on the oysters! https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12510179/Texas-man-dies-bacterial-infection-oysters.html

al44; Keep on a bussin' them, Governor Abbott! Chicago is in the same mess, by the way. 20K illegal students hit the NYC school system last week with no vaxes. Shows U what a bunch of two-faced tyrants the liberal left are.
With the impeachment starting and a Government shutdown looming, fasten your seat belt. Things are going to be very down and dirty going forward.

lj: I don't know that the inventory of gasoline is that high if they are raising the price at the pump. Or am I missing something, like extortion at the pump!

lj: AI and the infrastructure for cyber currencies.
Duke, to name one energy company, is spending a fortune on alternative energies that won't provide sufficient electricity, while neglecting the upgrade of the grid. ESG or whatever it is will prove to be a BIG disaster if it isn't stopped now.
And it seems the endangered right whales are hitting wind farms in the ocean and dying.l That is being covered up.

Oil at $89 a barrel is VERY bad. Very inflationary. The Fed will not be lowering rates any time soon, which translates into a big selloff in the market, followed by an ugly recession. AND, looming is the big budget battle. Expect a prolonged Government shutdown. I can almost guarantee it. Three weeks or more. The House Republicans aren't going to blink because Kevin McCarthy is a weak sister and the alt-right will run over him. IMO, the best place to be is in Government Securities mm's. With 20-20 hindsight, putting everying in a big oil company like XOM a month or so ago would have been very smart. As littlejohn says, "and so we watch". As skillz1 says, "I could always be wrong". But if oil prices stay high, I won't be wrong.

Lee is working his magic on the price of oil. VTLE still cannot hit $60. When the price reaches my cost on the first lot I purchased, $65 and change. so long, adios, au revoir, sayonara. I am beginning to think it will not reach $65 until oil is $120 a barrel, which might be never!
The stock is a dog. The opportunity cost of owning 100 shares, $6500 outlay, is about $250 before taxes (4 percent yield on a MM). Then there is inflation decay. Owning an oil stock with no dividend was not a good decision. With 20-20 hindsight, XOM would have been the better choice.
VLO continues to look smart. DVN has proven to be another poor choice, even though it pays a nice dividend. However, it is very near my cost, and I was paid to wait for it to get back there. Paid handsomely. Enough whining.

NYBob: I don't think so.

lj: What about oil from offshore Gabon and Egypt. Is it being shipped? Apparently it is.
Once again VTLE has proven to be an underperforming stock.
Right now, Lee's biggest threat still seems to be the Canadian Maritime Provinces.
(I remain bored with Lee. Wednesday should put the picture in focus.)
VLO still up. Is the rise in the price of gasoline going to help keep the crack spread the same.
Pump prices have not risen at the same rate as the price of oil. Only a glut of gasoline would explain the fact that prices did not shoot up in tandem with the strong rise in the price of oil over the past few weeks.
Are we at the point at which pump prices affect driving patterns? Do people even care about rising gasoline prices?
If even 20 percent of the at-home workforce were required to go back to the office. . . There is a lot of noise on financial programs about that happening by early 2024.
So we watch. . .a jet-lagged President make a fool of himself.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12506245/US-makes-deal-Iran-swap-five-American-prisoners-6billion-frozen-funds.html

lj: I'd love to see RFK, Jr. go third party. That would split the Dem vote.
Haley quit her job at the U.N. I wouldn't vote for a quitter.
And I don't think she is a Christian, which is a big problem for any candidate that wants the Republication nomination.
Even if Trump were in jail, he'd win the election with a write-in vote.
They take him down, all conservatives would be doomed. Think 72K IRS agents.
That would be the Marxist's Gestapo.
Ayock and arizona1--two real prize packages.

littlejohn: Sandy has crossed my mind more than once when thinking about Lee's path.

Hurricane Lee currently Cat 2, but expected to strengthen.
By the way, petrol prices are still rising here, as I expected.

al44: Years ago, lunatics left San Francisco for Portland. That is who has run the city into the ground.

Gmenfan: Excellent.

lj: VTLE has stalled once again. After the move in oil this week, those hedges don't look so smart.
I might start selling $65 calls, which is approximately my cost on part of my position. On a $6,500 investment, the yield from a Government securities MM would be at least $260 a year at the going rate. Here comes the broken record: VTLE doesn't pay a dividend. I am telling you, no matter how well management runs the company, investors run the stock, and they want a stock that pays a dividend. Enjoy your college games today!

lj: The wind field is interesting news--a 50 percent increase. Didn't expect it to replace the eye wall so soon.
Lee is a poke-i-cane. It won't be out in the Atlantic parallel to the Mid-Atlantic region for at least a week, assuming, of course, that is the course it takes. After seeing Ivan's track, my uneducated opinion is that hurricanes can go anywhere.
It is hard to take any track seriously until after the next 72 hours--canes stall, and a new set of meteorological conditions change a storm's itinerary. Unless you believe, as do conspiracy theorists, that the weather is controlled by evil humans!

Hurricane Lee: Another nothin' muffin NOAA report. This storm is moving like a snail.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/090240.shtml

lj: The weather networks are going to make big money off of this storm selling advertising. There is too much hype, as usual.
At least it gives people up the entire East Coast enough warning so they can prepare to prepare.

getmoreshares: I believe it 100 percent.

lj: I bought in the call and that is that. By the bye, in these here parts petrol went up 7 cents a gallon since Monday at the lowest-priced stations--$3.54 on up!. At this time next week, the cheapest price will be $3.65.

OT: There is a LOT of high-priced real estate along the rivers that are tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay.
Thankfully, the next full moon is not until the 29th, and the storm will be long gone by then.

lj: VLO up $6 the last time I looked due to the fact that I sold a $140 call for today. The media is hyping the storm now.
The big factor that will affect its path north by northwest is its speed. The Canada Atlantic provinces are hoping that it slows down to a crawl; the U.S. East Coast below New England is hoping it keeps up its pace. Vacationers to the East Coast beaches next week will not be in the water jumping waves. Very interesting but very scary. I hope the storm loses a lot of intensity when it hits that cooler water caused by Franklin.

lj: Over and out. Time to put on a podcast and get some work done before hitting the hay.