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GM -1.38 to 32.91, after a solid earnings beat and raised guidance ..... at the very least GM has been a good trader the past year, a buy in the low $30's and a sell in the low $40's ..... check out the chart ..... forward PE is a mere 4.8 based on midpoint EPS guidance.
I added a few shares today for a trade - I think the stock will be back over $40 at some point in the coming 6 to 12 months, if not sooner.
briefing -
General Motors beats by $0.48, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS and EBIT guidance (34.29 ) :
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $2.21 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.48 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $1.73; revenues rose 11.1% year/year to $39.98 bln vs the $39.38 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
Reached 20,000+ EV sales in the U.S., moving up to the No. 2 market position.
Co reported Q1 adjusted EBIT of $3.8 bln.
Co issues raised guidance for FY23, sees EPS of $6.35-7.35 from $6.00-7.00, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $6.13 S&P Capital IQ Consensus. EBIT-adjusted of $11.0 billion-$13.0 billion, compared to the previous outlook of $10.5 billion-$12.5 billion. U.S. GAAP net automotive cash provided by operating activities of $16.5 billion-$20.5 billion, compared to the previous outlook of $16.0 billion-$20.0 billion. Adjusted automotive free cash flow of $5.5 billion-$7.5 billion, compared to the previous outlook of $5.0 billion-$7.0 billion.
Long Term Guidance: Revenue of $225B+ in 2025 (~12% CAGR). GMNA EBIT-adjusted margins of ~8-10% through 2025. 400K EV production units from 2022 -- H1 2024 and capacity of ~1M units in NA by 2025.
Copper -.11 to $3.83/lb ..... copper futures have been selling off recently despite strong demand and tight supplies. I picked up a small position in the futures today and plan to trade around a core long position.
Copper prices are now the lowest since early January.
ETF's are also available for those who don't trade futures .... CPER and JJC.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/copper-industry-warns-looming-supply-gap-without-more-mines-2023-04-20/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/copper-shortage-threatens-green-transition-620df1e5?page=1
HG
BCBP +.23 to 11.55, I joined you with a small starter position today ..... the chart looks like the stock may have bottomed last week at $10.71. I'll be accumulating.
Also, the company today renewed its share buyback program -
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19305074-bcb-bancorp-announces-stock-repurchase-program
FNGD +.75 to 22.01, the megacaps are overdue for a correction, imho .... check out these stunning YTD gains -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
META 77% 212.79 120.34
AAPL 27% 165.33 129.93
AMZN 26% 106.21 84
GOOG 20% 106.78 88.73
MSFT 17% 281.77 239.82
AVERAGE RETURN = 34%
SSK - BCBP (11.32) - any thoughts on the Q1 earnings ? Aside from the investment loss it seemed like a decent quarter with deposits actually up from year end. The stock has been battered, down about 35% since your post in January.
I have it on my watchlist for potential purchase.
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19295397-bcb-bancorp-inc-earns-8_1-million-in-first-quarter-2023-reports-0_46-eps-and-6_1-percent-net
FNGD +.75 to 21.65, the FANG stocks are looking weak today ahead of their earnings reports this week. A correction in the group could be looming after the big YTD gains. I just added to my FNGD position (3x inverse ETF).
https://www.bmoetns.com/ETN/FNGD.P/
Peak earnings week is ahead with 180 S&P500 companies reporting including several megacaps ..... so far so good - 90 companies have reported thus far with 76% beating estimates.
GERN (2.67) has strong technical support at around $2, but increasing resistance at $3 ..... I'd recommend taking some profits now and selling more if the stocks gets back to $3 and higher. There'll likely be another big pullback which could be a buying opportunity.
Profits are a long ways off and they'll need another capital raise early in 2024. Good luck.
Back in January I questioned whether you were taking profits at $3.17, but you did not, which turned out to be a mistake. As you know, the stock hit $1.95 recently -
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=170908271&txt2find=gern
T (17.65) analyst commentary -
fly -
AT&T should be bought at current share levels, says JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Philip Cusick lowered the firm's price target on AT&T to $22 from $23 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's operating business was solid in Q1 but volumes of sales and gross adds were down substantially year-over-year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm sees a "very favorable risk/reward" at the $17.65 per share and recommends buying at current levels.
HSBC upgrades AT&T to Buy, sees opportunity on selloff
HSBC analyst Adam Fox-Rumley upgraded AT&T to Buy from Hold with an unchanged price target of $21. The "severely negative market reaction" to the company's lower subscriber growth and "weak" Q1 free cash flow generation offers an opportunity, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says AT&T's growth in subscribers and EBITDA are still solid, and that its fiber upgrade appears the right strategy with optionality beyond the current footprint. Its guidance is "far from unreachable," contends HSBC.
AT&T price target lowered to $23 from $25 at TD Cowen
TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams lowered the firm's price target on AT&T to $23 from $25 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The analyst said management remains very confident in its $16B FCF guide but obviously a "show me" especially following its history of EBITDA-to-FCF conversion and prior downward FCF revisions.
DHI +6 to 108 after easily beating Q1 estimates. Numerous homebuilders are making new 52wk highs today in wake of the bullish report and outlook from industry giant DHI -
briefing -
D.R. Horton beats by $0.82, beats on revs; raises FY23 revs above consensus (101.86 ) :
Reports Q2 (Mar) earnings of $2.73 per share, $0.82 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $1.91; revenues fell 0.3% year/year to $7.97 bln vs the $6.48 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
Co issues upside guidance for FY23, sees FY23 revs of $31.5-33.0 bln vs. $28.46 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. FY23 guidance details: Homes closed between 77,000 and 80,000 homes. Rental homes/units closed between 4,000 and 5,000 homes/units. Income tax rate of approximately 24%. Cash provided by both consolidated and homebuilding operations greater than fiscal 2022. Share repurchases at a similar dollar amount as fiscal 2022.
Net sales orders for the second quarter ended March 31, 2023 decreased 5% to 23,142 homes and 11% in value to $8.6 billion compared to 24,340 homes and $9.7 billion in the same quarter of the prior year. The Company's cancellation rate (cancelled sales orders divided by gross sales orders) for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 was 18% compared to 16% in the prior year quarter. Net sales orders for the first six months of fiscal 2023 decreased 20% to 36,524 homes and 25% in value to $13.6 billion compared to 45,862 homes and $18.0 billion in the same period of fiscal 2022. The Company's sales order backlog of homes under contract at March 31, 2023 decreased 43% to 19,237 homes and 44% in value to $7.4 billion compared to 33,859 homes and $13.3 billion at March 31, 2022.
At March 31, 2023, the Company had 43,600 homes in inventory, of which 24,800 were unsold. 6,400 of the Company's unsold homes at March 31, 2023 were completed. The Company's homebuilding land and lot portfolio totaled 547,000 lots at the end of the quarter, of which 25% were owned and 75% were controlled through land and lot purchase contracts.
Wade - GERN +.28 to 2.36, I'm surprised you're unaware of the reason for the rally .... it's in anticipation of two investor presentations the company is giving. The 1st is tomorrow, the 2nd next Tuesday .... presumably they'll provide a positive update on the NDA. If not, the stock could give back these gains .... GERN would have made a nice trading buy at the low of $1.95 on Friday in anticipation of a rally related to the presentations, but traders might be taking profits soon, especially if the rally fades. Good luck.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/geron-present-upcoming-investor-conferences-204000735.html
CUBI +.95 to 18.65 in a strong regional bank group ..... WAL earnings beat estimates and deposit outflows have stabilized .....
https://www.investors.com/news/regional-banks-earnings-western-alliance-zions-key-detail-march-damage/
AATC +.19 to 4.03, Their explanation for the audit delay sounds plausible. Nice revenues, but I'll be staying on the sidelines until they report audited results.
China's economy is rebounding strongly - that's also good news for the world economy, but could be inflationary especially for the commodities that China imports -
WSJ -
China’s economy accelerated in the first three months of the year, pointing toward a robust recovery from three years of strict pandemic policies that had held back the world’s second-largest economy.
China’s gross domestic product expanded by 4.5% in the first quarter of the year compared with the year earlier, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday, as the lifting of three years of tough Covid-19 controls and Beijing’s supportive policies helped to rekindle growth.
The result topped the 4.0% expansion predicted by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal and marked an acceleration from the 2.9% year-over-year increase in the final three months of 2022—one of China’s weakest quarters in decades.
Retail sales, a key gauge of China’s consumption and a major growth engine of China’s economic recovery, rebounded by 10.6% in March from a year earlier, up from a 3.5% year-over-year increase in the first two months of the year. Surveyed economists had expected retail sales to rise 7.9% in March from a year earlier.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-economy-rebounds-after-three-years-of-zero-covid-isolation-693ed73?mod=hp_lead_pos1
The odds of a recession in the coming 12 months is 65% according to a Bloomberg poll of 48 economists.
Bloomberg -
The probability of a downturn in the next 12 months stands at 65%, up from 60% odds in February, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists. The poll was conducted March 20-27, in the aftermath of several bank closures that included Silicon Valley Bank, with 48 economists responding about the odds of a recession.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-28/economists-boost-us-recession-odds-on-higher-rates-banking-woes?sref=dhPPPoTj
I always file for an automatic 6 month extension and typically file my tax returns in August or September ahead of the October 15th deadline. One has to make an estimate of tax due by April 15th, but no reason is required for the extension. Of course, if more tax is due when one ultimately files, then an interest penalty is assessed.
The extension allows me more time and is practical for the usual amended 1099's that I get as late as May or June.
The extension filing is very simple -
https://www.irs.gov/forms-pubs/extension-of-time-to-file-your-tax-return
NG volatility has been great for writing options. A few weeks ago I sold a $2.20 - $2.50/mcf straddle on the May NG futures which expire next week. I got $0.35 per mcf, so the position will be profitable between $1.85 and $2.85 per mcf and pure profit between $2.20 and $2.50 .....
I'll be rolling the straddle over to June at expiration.
BOIL, KOLD
S&P500 earnings for 2023 were expected to be $228 at the start of the year but have been trending gradually downward. Expectations are now for $220 according to Yardeni. In a few weeks I'd guess it will that drop to $212 or so .... we'll see. But the market is expecting a drop, so it won't come as a big surprise to most investors.
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/yriearningsforecast.pdf
BOIL and KOLD - good idea, but one has to accept a much wider bid/ask spread and a time premium for going out a few weeks, but as long as one doesn't exercise an option or get assigned on one (when shorting the options) the transactions won't cause a K-1 to be issued.
I prefer to trade directly in the futures market, which allows one to select a futures expiration month and has tax advantages since gains are considered 60% long term.
JPM, C and WFC all post Q1 earnings well ahead of estimates .....
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/14/jpmorgan-chase-jpm-earnings-1q-2023.html
SGOV - ok, thanks for the explanation. In my case the periodic sweeps of cash in and out of SGOV take less than a minute maybe 3 times a week. As for keeping track in SSKMP, you always have a sizable cash position - no need to sweep daily, you could have 20% of your portfolio in SGOV and rarely would you need to draw from it since you always seem to have at least that much cash. And it would more closely reflect your personal returns in treasury bills. jmho
CMRE (9.99) has a large containership fleet, but mostly on long term favorable fixed rate charters, so not much impacted by the spot market where rates are more volatile, but they'll have to roll over their charters at lower rates - CMRE trades at just 3x 2023 EPS estimates.
PR -
96% and 85% of the containership fleet is fixed for 2023 and 2024, respectively.
https://www.costamare.com/images/news/CMRE_Earnings_release_Q4_2022.pdf
SSK - why have you still not invested your idle 55% cash in SGOV or a similar ultra short term treasury bills ETF ?
I have all my cash in SGOV, sweeping it in and out regularly as needed. 4% annualized interest is much better than 0.35% annualized which Ameritrade is currently paying.
PPI for March came in much cooler than expected -
U.S. wholesale prices sank 0.5% in March to mark the biggest decline in almost three years, potentially a sign of further easing in inflation in the months ahead.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast no change in the producer price index. The drop last month was the biggest since the start of the pandemic in early 2020.
Wholesale costs often herald future inflation trends. The increase in wholesale prices over the past 12 months also slowed again to 2.7%, from 4.9% in the prior month. That’s the lowest reading since January 2021.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wholesale-inflation-posts-biggest-drop-in-3-years-ppi-shows-3fc04750
PPSI might be looking a bit toppy at $4.50 ..... I just sold my last shares for a hefty 50% gain in a mere 2 weeks. Wish I had bought a lot more shares in the low $3's. Thanks again for the earnings alert ! I'll be buying back shares if there's a dip.
BGFV - very good point - I don't own the stock and was not aware of the lowered guidance ..... they did ultimately beat the analyst Q4 estimate of $0.07, but that had been sharply lowered based on the updated guidance .....
We'll see how they do in Q1. I would not want to own the stock.
BGFV -.31 to 7.95, is certainly facing headwinds now that the surge in pandemic related sales is over and a slump seems likely ..... but the stock is cheap and they modestly beat estimates the past 2 quarters. I have no position.
SPWH derives much of its revenue and profit from gun sales whereas BGFV is general sporting goods ..... rather different businesses in that respect.
https://www.sportsmans.com/guns-handguns-rifles-shotguns-muzzleloaders-modern-rifles/c/cat128000
Copper mining stocks have been nice winners this year ..... I own pure plays CPPMF and TGB along with TECK which also has copper mining exposure.
Copper prices began the year at $3.81/lb and are now $4.13, helped in part by prospects for increased demand from China, by far the world's biggest importer.
BOIL has been a nice trader for those who time it right or a good short for those holding .... if NG continues to languish in the low $2's/mcf, BOIL will continue to trend lower due to the steep contango in the NG futures market ..... every time they roll over their expiring futures position to the next month they sell low and buy high.
Trend Start Price Trend End Price Gain/Loss % Days in Trend
01/03/23 13.92 01/03/23 15.73 13% 1
01/03/23 15.73 01/06/23 11.74 -25.4% 4
01/06/23 11.74 01/09/23 14.34 22.1% 2
01/09/23 14.34 01/11/23 10.22 -28.7% 3
01/11/23 10.22 01/12/23 12.99 27.1% 2
01/12/23 12.99 01/13/23 10.43 -19.7% 2
01/13/23 10.43 01/17/23 11.68 12% 2
01/17/23 11.68 01/20/23 9.22 -21.1% 4
01/20/23 9.22 01/23/23 10.84 17.6% 2
01/23/23 10.84 01/26/23 7.33 -32.4% 4
01/26/23 7.33 01/27/23 8.66 18.1% 2
01/27/23 8.66 02/03/23 5.55 -35.9% 6
02/03/23 5.55 02/07/23 6.89 24.1% 3
02/07/23 6.89 02/08/23 5.65 -18% 2
02/08/23 5.65 02/10/23 6.67 18.1% 3
02/10/23 6.67 02/13/23 5.85 -12.3% 2
02/13/23 5.85 02/14/23 6.64 13.5% 2
02/14/23 6.64 02/21/23 4.34 -34.6% 5
02/21/23 4.34 03/03/23 7.97 83.6% 9
03/03/23 7.97 03/06/23 5.64 -29.2% 2
03/06/23 5.64 03/07/23 6.35 12.6% 2
03/07/23 6.35 03/10/23 5.08 -20% 4
03/10/23 5.08 03/13/23 5.86 15.4% 2
03/13/23 5.86 03/15/23 4.83 -17.6% 3
03/15/23 4.83 03/16/23 5.4 11.8% 2
03/16/23 5.4 03/21/23 3.93 -27.2% 4
03/21/23 3.93 03/22/23 4.55 15.8% 2
03/22/23 4.55 03/23/23 3.89 -14.5% 2
03/23/23 3.89 03/24/23 4.3 10.5% 2
03/24/23 4.3 03/30/23 3.26 -24.2% 5
03/30/23 3.26 03/31/23 3.76 15.3% 2
03/31/23 3.76 04/03/23 3.24 -13.8% 2
04/03/23 3.24 04/05/23 3.6 11.1% 3
04/05/23 3.6 04/06/23 2.96 -17.8% 2
04/06/23 2.96 04/10/23 3.64 23% 2
CPPMF +.24 to 1.92 after announcing an agreement to be acquired by HBM -
Under the terms of the Arrangement Agreement, each Copper Mountain shareholder will receive 0.381 of a Hudbay common share for each Copper Mountain common share held.
The Transaction consideration represents approximately C$2.67 per Copper Mountain common share and a US$439 million equity value based on Hudbay’s closing share price on April 12, 2023. The Transaction consideration represents a 23% premium to Copper Mountain shareholders based Hudbay’s and Copper Mountain’s 10-day volume-weighted-average share prices on April 12, 2023.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hudbay-copper-mountain-combine-create-114900960.html
FNGD +.64 to 21.19, I picked up a few shares as a hedge against a megacap correction during earnings season .... their valuations are getting lofty.
BWA (48.50) looks attractive trading at around 10x EPS guidance for 2023. In recent quarters they've handily beaten guidance and analyst estimates, most recently by 17% in Q4.
Borg Warner is a play on rapidly increasing demand for EV parts. The company is guiding for 72% y/y revenue growth in 2023 for that segment of its business, rising to roughly 10% of total revenue.
I picked up a starter position today, albeit the stock is already up about 20% YTD. I'll be accumulating if there's a pullback.
Crude Oil +1.76 to 83.29/bbl, a huge rally from $64 less than 4 weeks ago .... the last time oil was over $83 was back on 11/16.
CPE is now $37 whereas back on 11/16 it was $42
VTLE is now $52 whereas back on 11/16 it was $65
Numerous small cap oil producers look very cheap now with oil over $80.
CPI comes in cooler than expected, just 0.1% overall and 0.4% core -
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/cpi-march-2023-.html
FNGD (20.53) might be a good buy ahead of earnings season .... it's a 3x Inverse FANG ETF. I'm tempted to buy a few shares as a hedge .....
FNGU is the 3x bullish ETF.
Bitcoin back over $30k and on fire, up 80% YTD -
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/11/business/dealbook/bitcoin-price.html
BTC
ZBT certainly has a good track record when it triggers .... S&P 500 up an average of 23% a year later ..... I've entered an auto reminder to check on it periodically. We'll see how it does this time around .....
Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator
Some sectors of the market have been very strong YTD, especially the megacaps and tech stocks, but the Russell 2000 is up just 1% and the Russell Microcap is down 5% so far this year ..... quite a divergence. No froth in the microcaps !
PRICE CHANGE FROM CLOSING PRICE ON 20221231
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$NYFANG 36% 6068.95 4448.07
$NDX 19% 13051.23 10939.76
$COMP 15% 12084.36 10466.48
$RLG 13% 2445.66 2158.19
$SPX 7% 4109.11 3839.5
$DJT 6% 14197.66 13391.91
$MID 2% 2477.19 2430.38
$SPXEW 2% 5849.99 5739.53
$DJI 1% 33586.52 33147.25
$BTK 1% 5336.93 5281.1
$RLV 1% 1508.53 1497.12
$RUT 1% 1772.44 1761.25
$SML 1% 1163.85 1157.53
$DJU 0% 970.03 967.4
$IXBT 0% 0 0
$NBITR -1% 4436.49 4474.26
$NBI -1% 4168.62 4213.13
$RUMIC -5% 644.22 678.57
NYCB (8.79) upgraded by Jefferies -
New York Community Bancorp Inc. (NYCB) stock rose 1.9% in premarket trade on Tuesday as it drew an upgrade to buy from hold from Jefferies analysts, with a price target of $11 per share. Analyst Casey Haire said Jefferies likes NYCB's balance sheet positioning given dramatic improvement in its liquidity profile from its pending acquisition of Signature Bank assets. The FDIC -brokered acquisition of Signature Bank will also provide NYCB with "increased scale and diversification," Haire said. Currently valued at a discount to its peers, Jefferies expects the bank to "close the multiple gap." Jefferies also highlighted the bank's expected dividend yield of about 8%, which it describes as " attractive."