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That's too long to wait, I'm selling all my shares.
LOL! My speed reading bit me...
http://www.adamantineenergy.com/images/Kenya-aeromag/Press-release-July-2013.pdf
Results are expected in August, 2013.
My story is the 13th of August is in August...
Sue me!
[Thanks for the link earlier!]
You da man!
[BTW, don't sue me, I own ERHC shares, nuf said]
It was evident that it would start immediately after Adamantine's FTG... what was Bell Geo gonna do, fly the plane somewhere else in Africa only to fly it back for ERHC's contract?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=90103047
I agree with you on this...
"So who cares if there are 10 billion bbls in block 1 if Blocks 2-4 have zip"
In fact, that statement can be made this way and be equally accurate...
"So who cares if there are only 30+/- million barrels in block 1 if Blocks 2-4 have billions"
The jury is still out. Hopefully what was learned from the 5 wells drilled in blocks 2-4 and the additional information from block 1 (Sinopec is a 40% partner in that block in case you forgot) will help pinpoint where the crude from the now proven hydrocarbon kitchen are hiding. Many large discoveries start out this way, AKPO included. You take your best educated guess from seismic and drill. Sometimes you get lucky and strike, but most often you don't and have to incorporate what was learned to the models and try again.
IMO, that's why Sinopec hasn't left... they still plan to explore further with the information gathered so far.
Your previously held opinion was that what happens in block 1 does not impact ERHC. As I remember, you held that view with strong conviction. So why the 180° opposite opinion now?
Does block 1 activity somehow have no effect on EHRC if it is positive, but dire consequences if it is negative?
I know I've been busy, but when did this happen?
I'm not even considering buyout scenarios until after reserves are on the balance sheet. Offor didn't come this far to throw in the towel for pennies.
In 13 months the "competitive advantage" clause in Sinopec's PSC allowing them to tight-hole results will expire. That clock is ticking faster and faster each day.
Imagine the landscape around here with partners in Chad, Kenya, and the EEZ active in ERHC's blocks and a surprise announcement of commercial oil in the JDZ.
Yeah, that would be fun.
What you are quoting came from an article written in Chinese that was translated by Google.
Nobody at ERHC said that.
Excellent find kingpin, thanks for posting it.
All based on assumptions formed from third party reports.
I deserve that... I thought it was true at the time. I can't say I don't even now. There are too many unanswered questions.
Yep. For all we know Total and Sinopec are negotiating an area wide project and they need higher percentages to make it work. Since ERHC isn't going to budge, maybe the Nigerian component of the JDA offered on shore and/or shallow properties to Afren that are more in line with the companys budget in return for their % of block 1 so Sinopec and Total can pencil it out...
...or the drilling really was a big disappointment, but I am not going to scream that from the mountaintops, because I don't know. Jumping to conclusions and calling attention to them without having the facts more often than not ends up making someone look like a fool when the facts come out and show they were completely wrong.
I don't know what it means. I don't know the terms, if any, that they accepted to relinquish the block. I also don't know what other projects they may have commitments on. But I do know that they did not have a carry, so deepwater costs on top of those may have been a factor.
For all we know they entered into the block with the intention of flipping it prior to development, knowing that costs were out of their league. We probably will never know.
You opinion that they left because it was a bust could be true, just as many other reasons could exist. Rather than state my opinions as fact, as some people do, I am content to state a truthful and candid answer... I don't know.
There's no harm in that. What Afren does is Afren's business and has little to no effect on ERHC.
You are entitled to your opinion, mine just differs.
That onerous "weight" on their backs is a loan, to be paid back, with interest, from profit oil... hardly a burden.
When oil was discovered in JDZ block 1, there was a stubborn insistence that those discoveries were irrelevant to ERHC because they were in a block where ERHC had no interest.
Now a junior partner in block 1 decides to pull the plug, and it's bad news for the entire JDZ?
The double-standard is astounding.
The length of time this LOI is taking can only mean one of two things; trouble getting a deal done, or a significant deal requiring lengthy negotiations.
Whether anyone places their bets long or short is irrelevant to me, it's going to play out how it plays out. My gut says the next month or two are going to reveal many sought after answers.
I will be thankful for that, because the waiting sucks.
Blah, blah, blah.
My best guess is that Sinopec isn't hiding that they intend to leave, but they haven't "formally" relinquished the blocks, thus Sinopec and ERHC have not "formally" announced it.
It still could be a bluff and they intend to stay. How else could Ntephe say they are "a few weeks or months" from announcing a way forward? Total?
Pretty much everyone EXCEPT ERHC.
You forgot two words at the end of your post... they are "or" and "didn't".
You don't know, and I don't know... not until the comprehensive drilling report comes out. Personally I think much, much more will happen before that report ever see's the light of day, but that's my opinion.
People can and do make money being long, or short, any given stock... the trick is you have to be RIGHT.
That fact is amplified ten-fold on the OTC... news of a strong partner in Kenya and/or Chad, a long awaited PSC in the EEZ, a phase II "way forward" in the JDZ, suggested "in a few weeks or months" by Ntephe over a month ago... any of these could blow the lid off this trading range we have been stuck in.
Like a deer caught in the headlights, I'm frozen and staring it down. My gut says we are getting close to answers... very close.
Think before you attack. I was merely making a point to show the effect of dilution on your holdings. The $10 example, $3.33 loss to you, and $6.66 subsequent share price were all accurate when you realize the dilution of 248M shares on 743M outstanding is 33%.
The $10 hypothetical share price, as with the 30% hypothetical dilution, were arbitrary numbers to make the point. I wasn't preparing a report for the bean counters to go over with a fine tooth comb.
I too would be happy with $7 per share right now. That's easy to say when we're trading under a dime. However, if they do strike big oil after a 248M share dilution demanded by some, that 33% loss in gain in our accounts would loom LARGE in our heads.
They positioned themselves well for a bidding war, IMO.
This easily could be why we haven't heard anything yet. They could be entertaining multiple offers.
"The sky is falling, the sky is falling"... NOT!
I found the link showing non-exclusivity posted by chet...
Link 2, page 2:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=90381633
"it is not exclusive"
Has that been confirmed? I thought it was a kromoid.
I remember that story. So it was some reporter in an African rag that made the link that "D1" was Offor.
Thank you for digging that up.
"suitcases full of cash which Offor alleged brought with him to the UK"
Can you give me a definitive link showing that it was Offor at all? The only thing I ever could find was "Person A", "Person B", etc... no names.
The connection that it was Offor may have been created on this board.
I absolutely think there will be dilution, and I think management is doing everything in their power to minimize how much of it. Floating shares at 7-8 cents isn't their goal.
Offor's money will be more useful as insurance the ERHC reaches the finish line... if a partner is close and willing to carry, Offor's money is best set aside for rougher times.
JMHO
No, I think that the thought of 248 million new shares outstanding being non-dilutive is funny. Let's do some fictitious math... let's say they find enough oil to justify a $10 share price under the current share structure. If Offor had participated and the full 248 million new shares been released, that represents a 30% dilution. Instead of a $10 share price, you would have a $6.66 share price, a loss of $3.33 to you.
Multiply your total position in ERHE by $3.33, is losing that worth it to you? Again, keep in mind, Offor not participating indicates the need for his participation didn't exist... the LOI will result in a contract, IMO. Everything points to that.
I saw a post that Offor's participation in the offering would "counteract the effects of dilution".
Not *THAT* my friend, is funny!
We could debate where the share price would be, but what is not debatable is there would be 248 million more shares outstanding diluting your potential gain should they discover oil.
IMO, Offor did not participate for one reason... he knew ERHC was going to land a carrying partner and wouldn't need the cash, and by knowing that he could NOT participate without facing insider trading charges.
It all played out the way it is suppose to, legally.
I didn't say anything about billions of barrels of oil. What I *do* know is they said they found "a lot of gas, particularly in block 2".
I'm not ruling out that the gas may have enough value to Total with facilities nearby for ERHC to monetize it.
Also, Ntephe stated that they had detected "migration pathways" from their 5 well drilling campaign... that's oil traces. Then he went on to say they expect to be able to announce a way forward in a few weeks or months... this was June 11th, 2013...
Is this the piece of the puzzle that needs to be put in place?
Listen from 11:25 into the video.