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Agreed Angelo.
Biotech being valued using DCF + scenario anlysis.
Collegium has a mkt cap of 400Mln and target prices ponting to double that = 800mln usd (TP usually has 12months horizon).
Difficult to immagine IPCI wothing less than that in 2yrs, but obviously anything can happen.
Patience
Faith
Fingers Crossed
Samsa, here is what I think:
1- at some point the market "discovers" something that was already there and...all of a sudden it become the hottest thing (you can see it in Macro themes - i.e. european periferals government debt - in sectors - i.e. cannabis related stocks - etc etc)
2- now, consider our peer: Collegium, Egalet, Elite, Pain Ther, Acura, maybe Trevena....ytd are between -47% and -70%; and you can say the ADF sector is getting hotter and hotter; IPCI is +24% ytd.
What I want to say is that as soon as big pockets really decide to get in the Abuse Deterrence story you will see all the stocks at +50% in a matter of weeks, with the winners doubling, just on volume action (see the cannabis related)
3- even considering your hypotesis on Seroquel, 10mln usd of earnings per year, with a fully diluted basis of 36mln shares, and a P/E of 15 we get 5.5 usd of value.....on Seroquel alone !! and I believe we are in the low side of the range
4- you are not correct when you say insititutions base their behaviour on earnings; those who invest in biotechs do consider mainly growth. It's a different approach.
to understand how they value a company:
consider a drug, then make a scenario of its most likely peak of sales in the future; then discount the cash deriving for the number of yrs btween now and peak of sales. discount factor to be higher/lower based on the level of risk for the scenario to realize.
for each of the drugs, then make a sum of parts
as soon as insitutions will see real perspectives of growth they will jump in
5- 50Mln upfront and maybe 50mln at Rexista approval would equal to 100mln cash divided by 36mln shares = 2.8
+ 5.5 of Seroquel + 1.5 Focalin + Rexista royalties...
Samsa,
let's see what happens with Rexista partnership; with a lucrative Agreement you will see insititutionals start accumulating and considering the thiny float the flip-floppers will do their game having a much much higher floor.
Samsa, this game will end as soon as the shares sold would step by step be boght by one or more institutions.
At that point, our interest will be aligned with that of some big pockets.
I think, as many times Sprot said in the past, that the main problem for this price action (of the last 3yrs at least) is the management (lack of investor mentality).
Samsa,
I think that when it comes to a very small cap ( <100Mln$) the stock can be valued based on growth expectations only when one or more of the following occurs.
1 very informative management, spreading the potential of the company to the market
2 important institutional holdings (better, their initial positioning)
3 cash cash cash...coming from partnership and/or revenue
Now, IPCI has neither, because they now have cash coming from a license agreement, but not "cash cash cash"
Important Analyst coverage or instituational buying, as you know and already stated, will happen once the company will be able to deliver on point 1 and/or 3.
Right now, big investors are not even seeing IPCI; I think that they are extremely penalized for not having a CEO 100% devoted to promoting the company potential. To give you a concrete example: when they issued new shares at 1.60 logic would have suggested to issue them to an instituion (potential partner or specialized biotech fund) instead that to a bunch of traders.
So, let's hope the PODRAS patent is not stuck and Rexista filing is not being kept on hold for that.
But then again, we have to make our hypotesis, since company's mouth is sealed...and the market is always punishing uncertainty.
PS
I am myself very frustrated for pirce action, but over the last 10 days a big number of biotechs I have under radar lost between 30 to 50%.
Using a p/e of 15, 25mln of profit would call for at least 12$ per share....Just on Seroquel. But then we have to discount for the IPCI syndrome and we get 6$....Just on Seroquel
If there is value Someone will pick it up.
It just take a Little more than 20mln to get 30? of the company and have majority.i'm not talking of a buyout...Just taking control and let Odidi makw the scientist
Looks incredibile to see the multitude of possible applications.
Samsa or others, are you aware of similar other tecnologie ? I know its not a simple questione, but interesting to have an idea of the potential vale Odidi is going to it's creature.
Agreed, as most of us here
"Next year will be the IPCI-year!!!! "
We need a little more patience and maybe some luck, it is always welcome and I think many of us long time investors really deserve it !
the patent office should come out with the final approval, but what I understood is that "burocraZy" (and maybe not just that) is Beyond any tollerable level.
lucky us ipci is entitled to the fast patent approval procedure...it is taking 2 months just for the final stamp !! ridicolous
Please somebody stop the shorters.
Call it The Force of Gravity
Sprot, what you are saying is not wrong, is the one-man-show risk, typical of early stage companies.
Just wondering about your attraction to the "dark side"
the agenda pdf doesn't show Odidi attending/presenting.
no prob tjguy,
just imagine that IPCI potential partner ask to review some docs or some aspects on the same day the conference is planned.
it is just a step in the negotiation process, but preventing him to attend. So I'm not saying here that they are signing, but it is absolutely reasonable that for a small co like IPCI a period like the current one must be very very intensive.
GLTY
So dear tiguy,
saying "Could likely be he is in the middle of negotiations. Add the NDA filing with all the triple checking required. "
sounds like "pumping without any valid evidence/reason" ?
Are you kidding ????
Just put in evidence the Odidi could well have been caught by some needs of any kind regarding the two main catalyst pending.
IPCI is in the middle of negotations for sure; it's coming from the company that they will partner Rexista and waiting for the patent approval.
And it's not my fantasy that they are about to file Rexista NDA, so saying they are triple checking everything sounds like pumping ?
You gotta be kidding.
Could likely be he is in the middle of negotiations. Add the NDA filing with all the triple checking required.
Would have been nice to know when he had to withdraw his partecipation...but it's impossible.
"There will always be some potential for abuse of these products. For instance, a patient can orally ingest a quantity beyond what is prescribed."
..and here comes the PRODRAS technology.
Thanks dtstx,
it would be very intersting to have Protonix approved in the short term, since it is one of the 3 ANDAs not included in the Mallinckdrot.
Therefore it would unlock another partnership, hopefully with the same structure (3 licensed produts) as Mallinckdrot's.
I would prefer to have this ANDA approved and the Rexista NDA filed on the 8th of december if this helps in protecting from possible lawsuit from Purdue.
In fact we could have Podras patent final approval, followed by the partnership Agreement for Rexista. At that point filing date would be a little bit less important (8 day into Q1 2017 compared to within Q4 2016), once they have secured the collaboration upfront and likely contingencies.
I understand when and why recur to short; if you want to invest it's part of the game, better know it than just dislike it.
But increasing by 25% the shorted shares, in a company with very low float and which is receiving approvals, partnerships and has very big catalyst pending sounds like nonsense or automatic trading based on TA.
They will just give us more fuel for the brutal upside, beacuse if we jump above 4$ overnight the will cover at whatever price causing a considerable spike up.
Ciao Doog,
Patience
Faith
Fingers Crossed
That's the most recent data.
It tell us what many here have been saying: what is preventing this stock to be at much reasonable prices in relation to what is going on with the company is a Group of shorters, strongly defending their big position.
I want to see them squeezed out badly, really badly
Doog, would be nice to receive one approval on 1 of these 3, and afterwards a license Agreement on the model of that signed with Mallinckdrot.
I think would be tremendoously benefecial for the price given the current sitation (lower floating); the 3.20-3.30 aerea will trigger some short covering, with the major part above 4$.
Would love to see that happening BEFORE Rexista filing-partnership.
In the meantime seems intersting to see that each time the MM tries to drive the pps below 3 some orders kick in...like if there is some kind of automatic buy oreder if price < 2.99
strongly agree with you Samsa,
market timing is the most powerful variable in determining the outcome of your investment, but it's hugely the most difficult to predict. distinguishing from having the perfect market timing and pure luck it is a tough job.
the second most powerful variable (and the most disregarded)being Size (of your investment in relation to your investable capital)
pipeline for CANADA/EU
For which products the company is mirroring what is doing with FDA(US market) for Canada ?
Is there a kind of preferential path for Canada approval if FDA green lighted in US ?
Just trying to understand if potential markets (for both Genrics and NDA) is "limited" to US or there is more to be considered when it comes to company futures valuation.
And what about Europe ? any idea if they have intentions to expand there ?
Sprot, please stop it !
You are long, short, making money, loosing...we don't care.
We are here to help each other understand more on this company and on our investment.
So it doesn' matter if someone has 1share or 1mln as lons as he is a good contributor .
You are provocative, behave arrogantly and don't bring any insight or reasoning on the company, just "watch out" "I tell" "watch and learn".
who cares.
Just stop it, get rich or loose everything, whatever !
I think he is just a guy who like to play games, but he found a very tough board for him.
I have to admit, many of you are making a great job offering their knwoledge, experience and resources to this community.
That's what I like to most in this board, we are contributing in a very documented way to achieve a very compelling task: the investment of our life !
I really don't understand those like Sprot which are against the Others (in the way he's behaving) instead of a part of a Group with the the same target.
GLTA
GM Doog, let the friday leads us into a new high for the year
Numbers, that could be a very welcome surprise; getting a final approval for Seroquel by november ?
would make IPCI profitable virtually overnight.
I would love to see the big catalysts hitting when we already have a 4/5$ per share.
Plus the more IPCI achieve and the more the hidden value of the company starts to sriface to everybody; 1bln mkt cap could likely be considered as reasonable to reach in the next 12months
Sprot, you are magic !
each time it goes up you gain more than Sparky,
but you truly want the price to go down, which means you will be loosing MORE than sparky; that's because you are just waiting on your long position for the price to go down and then buy some more.
Unless you are short now; only in that case you could be hedging your long position through your short; but, what if Tomorrow popos to 6 ? (yes, you are SURE it will NEVER happen). and WHERE did you open your short (if you have it)?
So, there truly is some confusion; either you are telling BS or you have some issues with math applied to stocks.
"Remember by each gain or pop I gain some more then you you, so don't worry. Never slept better :)
Although I would have had and picked up some more cheapies."
During 9 months ended june16 Mallinckdrot had 994mln of cashflow from operating activies.
They repurchased shares using more than 600mln.
I would say they seem to have reasonable capacity to ink a financilly important agreement.
Angelo, Samsa, your thoughts?
Desp, I think both of them.
Would make sense to say we are about to close with Mallinck, so any other seriously interested ....
Here is something strange (or funny);
I think everything Zacks was reportedly writing is in someway inaccurate, except the 2 generics ANDA, which makes no sense.
According to Zacks Investment Research, “Intellipharmaceutics International Inc. is engaged in the research, development, and commercialization of controlled-release and targeted pharmaceutical products. Its products include Effexor XR and Protonix. The Company offers products in different stages of development in therapeutic areas, including neurology, cardiovascular, and GIT. Intellipharmaceutics International Inc. was formerly known as IntelliPharmaCeutics Ltd. and is based in Toronto, Canada.”
I mean...why citing 2 ANDA still pending and no mention of the other catalyst and/or approval/partnership
Agreed Angelo,
a move on no news, no rumors, after some days of correction.
Volume speaks of institutional buying, which would be great = floating is getting thinner and thinner.
I wouldn't consider something written on a public msg board as "insider".
Plus, if you know what's going on with the company you wouldn't call it "pushing".
Anyway welcome to the board; hope you are here first as an investor, second as an educated contributor to the IPCI-related story.
to be read with caution
I do think some true elements are in there, though. Thanks Sparky for sharing !
What I really don't understand (maybe due to me not being eng mother language)
"IPCI is going into the conference holding it's head up high and asking for major dollars like $15 million + and at market price not discounted market price but will give the investor Warrants with a about 30% premium of what they pay for about 35% in share volume of what the purchaser purchased if they don't like IPCI could care less but like I said they are not discounting any shares now and the purchaser is getting warrants that is the bonus . "
Why IPCI should look for 15mln when there should be a deal with 25$Mln upfront and 50$mln when filing NDA ?
"The same group was willing to do the deal but for another $6 million not $15 million I know they have been able to get the amount up to about $7 1/2 million and IPCI has no interest so Dawson James is going to be looking for some investors to take the other half. Believe me they want the $1 million in commission so they are looking hard and have 3 potential investors showing up Thursday October 20 in Florida "
The Group they are talking about is Sprot&co. - shorting/dumping and then buying again; they would like to have a big share of the company but I don't understand why IPCI sould give them new shares (discounted or not doesn't matter at this point).
And again, why should Dawson be looking hard for new investors IF a deal with upfront and milestone payment for total 75Mln should be received by year end ???
I just don't like those which behave like if they know the future.
You are making your bets but you don't know anything of what is going to happen tomorrow, like all of us...or do you?
If I remember correctly you are the only one here making precise prediction in terms of price and time...so forgive me if I don't like "wizards". I prefer being stick to reality.
Still trying to understand why you are not writing when the price pops up...just when it goes down. Odd ??
Hei sprot ...you have been told so many times: if you really were long you wouldnt Hope for the price to down...even being Happy for the stock going lower and lower.
You Just trade.
Now either you are Short or you sold your long position. Hoping for the price to drop is the consequence. And it's legitimate.
Just hope you got caught overnight.
Those like you made this stock a "quiet" biotech".
I remember...your "watch and learn" prediction of the price @1 by 1st of sept.
KemPharm is 55Mln cap and Acura just 14Mln;
"Agreement includes upfront cash payment of $3.5m to ACUR and grants KMPH development and commercialization rights for up to three IR product candidates containing two of KMPH’s opioid prodrugs"
I would say that if IPCI would come out with a deal like this on Rexista I will be going to shouting, crying, becoming blue (dye)
Competition getting more and more obstacles should improve ipci negotiating power when signing the deal.
THE DEAL