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My understanding is that the Hang Seng gets more attention from the world markets than the other Chinese index, the Shanghai Composite.
China too has a way of suddenly turning positive when you least expect it.
I don't know. If I thought I knew I still wouldn't tell you because I usually get it wrong.
But I am sure that so far, the recent drop in SP for AVXL makes total sense if you allow about 9 cents for a brief lull in the constant positive news, and about 6 cents as a reaction to the broader market drop.
My guess is that all eyes are on China at this point as far as the broader markets go.
The SP had spiked 34% in 4 trading days from 8/13 to 8/19, and was correcting, predictably, back down to it's $1/month base pace, when this wider market drop started. That pushed the SP down a little past where it was headed.
So far, it all makes sense.
The SP had spiked and was correcting, predictably, when this wider market drop started. That pushed the SP a little past where it was headed.
So far, it all makes sense.
I know how to gaurantee a mega PR tomorrow morning. If I sell all of my AVXL tonight, I gauruntee that PR tomorrow pre-market. I can't trade pre-market.
If you all promise to pay me back...
Yes. If you look at a 3 month chart, it looks likely that AVXL is due for a move up. Unless the broader market situation overwhelms, it looks like the bottom was in Friday.
There are similar small biotechs that were actually positive over the last couple of days. I think the difference is that AVXL just overshot a little several days ago, as it does regularly, then came back down to the steep path it has been on over the last couple of days. We are right back on track.
Maybe the bashers and pumpers are like the lymph system in the brain. Maybe you need a little ebb and flow.
Maybe. Maybe more cowbell would help. But I think we should wait for the drumroll whenever that starts... could be Monday... could be in a week or so.
Off topic, but Janis Ian saved SNL. I was watching re-runs a couple months ago and accidentally caught the very first episode. George Carlin totally bombed. He might have taken the show down from the beginning, but the musical guest was Janis Ian. She did "At Seventeen" and absolutely nailed it, as did the rest of the band. It was incredible. I think without her the show may never have gotten off the ground. So many shows die the first season. She is a hero.
She nailed "At Seventeen", but that doesn't mean it wouldn't have been even better with more cowbells.
I thought that, "Yes, $1 coming" was probably a typo... Glad to hear that verified.
It is likely that many are not stating their guesses for which conferences AVXL will be attending to avoid dissappointment.
All is well with AVXL. No need to create potential perceived negatives by fabricating our own PR's about upcoming conference plans.
Further, there are a lot of conferences coming up. Hard to say which ones AVXL may choose. This is data maturity dependant, so timing could put them at a smaller conference, or could delay them as they wait for the next big conference.
That said..., there is an epilepsy conference 9/21-9/22 coming up that I don't see on your list. I am not predicting a presentation at that conference, but I am hoping for one.
I would agree with others that the Oct 5-6 conference for Alzheimer's looks the most likely for any data released about the secod Alzheimer's cohort. It is the closest to the midpoint between (mid ?) December (scheduled P2A end date) and the previous reveal for the first cohort July 22.
Epilepsy Conference:
9/21/15 – 9/22/15, International Conference On Epilepsy and Treatment, Baltimore, USA
http://epilepsytreatment.conferenceseries.com/
Movin On Up!
$1.45 real time and climbing fast!
Make that $1.46 and moving up fast!
The big dogs ain't no fools.
Not gonna risk being out with potential news on Monday!
They were just playing the short term fear of the broader markets.
My apologies for my feet off the ground, to some extent, with such a serious topic.
I was fortunate that my dad did not get any kind of dimentia toward his final years and days. My mom, although bed ridden for the most part in her final years experienced only a relatively moderate level of dimentia compared to what you and Mike are describing. Compared to the reality for so many.
My most recent exposure, however, was briefly dealing with an elderly woman that a niece was caring for. The woman had a very severe form of Alzheimers. Horrible.
When the brain goes it can effect the body in strange ways. Like the muscle tone, etc, is all mapped out, and when that stops being controlled, the fingers, etc... change shape.
More important, this poor woman was scared to death to have anybody or anything new in the environment. I was helping my niece move in. The woman was horrified and bewildered. It was a very powerful experience. I do understand the tremedous need for something that helps or cures this disease.
Thank you Mike, (for the Fisher Scientific Link for Anavex 2-73). Might have to wait till the end of the year to afford it, but I will definitely check that out. I do consider myself to be a scientist. That should qualify.
I was born with a crumby memory Mike. Good anaytic skills, but poor memory. That was before repeated head trama from accidents and on-purposes...
I want to try Anavex 2-73 too. If you need to pool money... .
I wonder if you can snort it?
I searched Alibaba, bud didn't have any luck. Worth searching again. I know there are places you can buy it for animal studies. Others have said they know places you can get drugs before approval. Search iHub AVXL for "before approval" and "Anavex 2-73".
Below are two places that sell it for animal studies:
http://www.tocris.com/dispprod.php?ItemId=393937
https://www.rndsystems.com/products/anavex-2-73_5058
$1.39 to $1.42 steady for the last 45 minutes Chief Ho. Maybe you need to stay away from that firewater in the mornings.
Smart man JDienno. More Ballsy --> Less Balls almost every time. Uncanny.
Patrick. Quick, go tell Spongebob THE SKY IS FALLING!
Hey Ryansk. Take your poison elsewhere.
Anyone understanding why a company cannot finance directly in an offering other than an IPO?
This situation with an apparent predatory lender(s) would never have developed if the company had funded itself through another offering of common shares directly to the public. Yet this never happens. Why?
There is such thing as a secondary offering, right? Decades later? Was this an option? If not, why not? Why would the SEC force a company to deal with crooks like whoever wrote that horrific B Warrant agreement. Could it be that the same category of crooks control the SEC?
Anybody with knowledge of the reasons behind these policies?
Alerting people to buy the stock!
AVXL in this case. I do that. I did that. I have often regreted doing that, and so try very hard not to. But I don't regret telling people about AVXL.
There are many wiser than me on this message board. Great board! I should defer to them, but I will add one thing that at least makes sense.
My tendency is to spread the news about a stock when I am excited. That is often after it starts to climb, even though I may have been studying it for a while, and may have invested before the climb.
But to tell people during a steep climb, when you are excited, is probably to be avoided. You don't think as well during a steep climb. The oxygen gets thin, and all that is left to breathe is helium.
I don't know much about "Kiss of Death" financing. Probably fits the bill.
But it's more than just a bad deal. This was hidden from investors. Once posted, buried in 9 layers of BS within a 6K, they could tell every friend and relative in their extended networks about it, while the rest of retail would take time to find it and figure out what it means.
I only invested a few days ago. Upcoming interim PR got my attention.
Worst possible timing.
Then I transfered a chunk of the shares to another account... so I thought I could not trade them while in process... as I watched this all unfold.
I had invested heavily.
I said I lost 16%... I think it was closer to 20%.
Cut and pasted the wrong section in my last post. This is the right section, with the possibly criminal portion bolded.
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Public offering
On March 11, 2015, the Company completed a public offering of 59,677,420 units (the "Units"), with each Unit consisting of either one common share or one warrant to purchase one common share ("Series C Warrant"), 0.75 of a warrant to purchase one common share ("Series A Warrant") and 0.50 of a warrant to purchase one common share ("Series B Warrant"), at a purchase price of $0.62 per Unit (the "March 2015 Offering").
Total cash proceeds raised through the March 2015 Offering amounted to $37,000,000, less cash transaction costs of approximately $2,560,000 and previously deferred transaction costs of $7,000.
The Series A and Series B warrants represent the right to acquire an aggregate of 74,596,775 common shares. The Series A Warrants are exercisable for a period of five years at an exercise price of $0.81 per share, and the Series B Warrants are exercisable for a period of 18 months at an exercise price of $0.81 per share. Both the Series A and Series B warrants are subject to certain anti-dilution provisions. Upon complete exercise, these warrants would result in the issuance of an aggregate of 74,596,775 common shares that would generate additional proceeds for an amount that would be determined based on the then adjusted exercise price. Both the Series A and Series B Warrants may at any time be exercised on a "net" or "cashless" basis.
In addition to standard cashless exercise provisions, the Series B Warrants may be exercised on an alternate cashless basis. If, on any calendar day occurring on or after May 26, 2015, the Company's per-share volume weighted average price ("VWAP") on the NASDAQ fails to be greater than $0.74 for the ten consecutive trading day period ended on the trading day immediately preceding such calendar day, then the holders of a Series B Warrant may exercise the Series B Warrant in an Alternative Cashless Exercise, which would permit such Series B Warrant holder to obtain a number of common shares equal to 200% of (i) the total number of common shares with respect to which the Series B Warrant is then being exercised multiplied by (ii) 0.81 divided by (iii) 85% of the quotient of (A) the sum of the VWAP of the common share for each of the five lowest trading days during the fifteen trading day period ending on and including the trading day immediately prior to the applicable Exercise Date, divided by (B) five, less (iv) the total number of common shares with respect to which the Series B Warrant is then being exercised.
The number of common shares that would be issued pursuant to an Alternative Cashless Exercise in the foregoing circumstances is not currently determinable; however, such Alternative Cashless Exercise could result in the issuance of a substantially larger number of the Company's common shares than otherwise would be issued following a standard cash or cashless exercise of the Series B Warrants.
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Was this maneuver legal?
This happens in private companies, and it is apparently legal in that case. Not sure it is legal for a public company to do the same.
In a private company, if the company needs more money, but cannot get investors to pony it up, they sometimes have to dilute employee stock in favor of the investor's preferred stock as a bonus for the investors. I once worked at a very good startup that had to dilute employee stock 8 fold to stay alive.
But this is a public company. A NASDAQ listed public company. And the warrants were to become common stock, not preferrred stock. Not sure how to formulate that objection, but add it to the list below.
At any rate... the deal was deliberately obscured. It was not truely above board.
1) The units are wrong in their description of the deal. If you do the math correctly the number of shares you get per warrant, which should be unitless, comes out to the units 1/$. Does this nullify that device? It might.
2) The VWAP is not defined unless you say the time interval for SP sampling. They don't specify. Further, the VWAP is not public information. You have to pay to get that information. Even through the NASDAQ you have to join their private club for $X to have access to the VWAP's that they calculate. Not sure if you can do that... require private information to calculate part of a convoluted deal. The VWAP is not hard to do a gross estimate of, but since you can't just look it up, it adds another layer to the many layers of confusion.
3) Is there some limit to how many levels of convoluted, extraneous BS a deal can be wrapped in with the obvious intent, and eventual accomplishment of confusion? If there isn't, then we need to start over. Note the people on the other side of this deal were not fooled by the BS. They probably wrote it. If not, then they certainly knew what it boiled down to.
4) Was there a shareholders' vote on this deal? Did there need to be? My best guess is that retail owns about 82% of the stock... maybe more. Were they invited to vote on this critical deal? I really don't know when shareholders get to vote on things, and when they don't.
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If you lost your ass; I would recommend the following:
Go through the formality of complaining to the SEC, just so you have a record of their inaction. There is an online complaint form. Keep a copy somehow.
Then go to the press. Just send a copy of the stinking BS of a deal. Just cut and paste from the 6K, along with the actual file in the 6K that contains the BS. Send a copy of that to every single newspaper you can think of. To every reporter you might possibly trust. And every politician that you think might actually do something once in a while.
Those newspapers might help you. And if not... they still might publish the stinking pile of poison because it is so horrific! I think people will be surprised at just what the SEC allows to go on.
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http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1113423/000111342315000010/0001113423-15-000010-index.htm
2 EXHIBIT 99.1 q1-2015xex991.htm EX-99.1 1027583
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Corporate Developments
Public Offering
On March 11, 2015, we completed a public offering of 59.7 million units (the "Units"), generating net proceeds of approximately $34.4 million, with each Unit consisting of either one common share or one warrant to purchase one common share ("Series C Warrant"), 0.75 of a warrant to purchase one common share ("Series A Warrant") and 0.50 of a warrant to purchase one common share ("Series B Warrant"), at a purchase price of $0.62 per Unit (the "March 2015 Offering"). The Series A Warrants are exercisable for a period of five years at an exercise price of $0.81 per share, and the Series B Warrants are exercisable for a period of 18 months at an exercise price of $0.81 per share. Both the Series A and Series B warrants are subject to certain anti-dilution provisions. The Series C Warrants are exercisable for a period of five years at an exercise price of $0.62 per share. Total gross proceeds payable to us in connection with the exercise of the Series C Warrants have been pre-paid by investors and therefore are included in the aforementioned proceeds.
The complete exercise of the Series A and Series B Warrants would result in the issuance of an aggregate of approximately 74.6 million common shares that would generate additional proceeds for an amount that would be determined based on the then adjusted exercise price. Both the Series A and Series B Warrants may at any time be exercised on a "net" or "cashless" basis. In addition to standard cashless exercise provisions, the Series B Warrants may be exercised on an alternate cashless basis. The number of common shares that would be issued pursuant to an alternative cashless exercise is not currently determinable; however, such alternative cashless exercise could result in the issuance of a substantially larger number of the Company's common shares than otherwise would be issued following a standard cash or cashless exercise of the Series B Warrants.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
eom
I don't follow my own advice, or I wouldn't have just lost a bunch of AVXL while trying to make some money flipping another stock. As usual, I just wanted to be able to buy a few more shares of AVXL. Thought I'd make a few bucks while AVXL was going sideways. Not only did I lose mucho dolores... AVXL sort of slipped sideways upward in the mean time. Just not at the break-neck pace it had been going at. Glad to be all-in again, even if it is less shares.
The advice I give after losing ground... advice I have a hard time following, is just don't do it again. Find some other way to occupy your time. You probably still have lots of shares. Just forget about it.
But if you insist on trying to recover your position, I did hear about a gold mine stock that is about to pop. I haven't had time to check it out yet, but here is the link so you can check it out yourself:
(Not directed at you All-IN)
They have SEC filings. The problem is the SEC filings contained a hidden bomb for retail investors. They used layers and layers of confounding jibberish to hide a core cut throat package for retail.
When companies want to hide things from the FDA in FDA submittals, they sometimes use what is called "wiggle words" by some. The convoluted BS hiding their core package was "wiggle words" for the retail investors and or the SEC.
Not sure if an Auditor is responsible for this kind of thing. Not sure if the SEC controls this kind of thing.
Some polyanna / peter pan who still has his or her cherry should attempt a complaint to the SEC. If that fails... and any cherry left, try talking to an attorney. Actually, you won't actually be able to talk to an attorney. You will have to talk to their secretary or support staff. That staff is not bound by client attorney privelage. They will likely immediately contact Aeterna Zentaris... because this country is totally corrupt, through and through!!!!!!!!!!!!!
From the top one of the two 6K’s filed May 7, in the complete Submission File, or look at the second Exhibit described below:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1113423/000111342315000010/0001113423-15-000010-index.htm
2 EXHIBIT 99.1 q1-2015xex991.htm EX-99.1 1027583
There were 2 6K's filed on May 7. For the controversy at hand, look at the later, the top one. Go down to the second file in the file list, q1-2015xex991.htm. That is where you will find the very special deal the CEO made with the B warrant holders. Those are magic warrants now.
From those / that doc... search for "Alternative" and you will find the passage below less my comments (- -).
***************************************************************************
the Series B Warrants may be exercised on an alternate cashless basis.
If, on any calendar day occurring on or after May 26, 2015, the Company's per-share volume weighted average price ("VWAP") on the NASDAQ fails to be greater than $0.74 for the ten consecutive trading day period ended on the trading day immediately preceding such calendar day (-every fkn day since long before May 26 till long from today 8/17/15 qualifies so thus far this says nothing-),
then the holders of a Series B Warrant may exercise the Series B Warrant in an Alternative Cashless Exercise, (-still saying nothing yet-)
which would permit such Series B Warrant holder to obtain a number of common shares equal to 200% of (i) the total number of common shares with respect to which the Series B Warrant is then being exercised multiplied by (ii) 0.81 divided by (iii) 85% of the quotient of (A) the sum of the VWAP of the common share for each of the five lowest trading days during the fifteen trading day period ending on and including the trading day immediately prior to the applicable Exercise Date, divided by (B) five, less (iv) the total number of common shares with respect to which the Series B Warrant is then being exercised.
The number of common shares that would be issued pursuant to an Alternative Cashless Exercise in the foregoing circumstances is not currently determinable; however, such Alternative Cashless Exercise could result in the issuance of a substantially larger number of the Company's common shares than otherwise would be issued following a standard cash or cashless exercise of the Series B Warrants.
*************************************************************************
Currently with a recent SP of about $.20, the number of shares that the 20M outstanding B Warrants could be excercised for would be 20M X $2.287/$.19 = 240M common shares. Add that to the existing 170M shares and that is 410M shares.
If the SP were to fall to 2.3 cents per share, and the B Warrant holders hung on to their shares until then, they could excerise them into 2 Billion shares, for an outstanding share count of 2.37 Billion shares.
The VWAP calcs works out to roughly the price three days ago, which is a moving target if the SP is descending. The number of shares per B warrant will move with the SP as $2.287/SP or RSP which is approximately the share price three days ago....
Anyone who would write the convoluted BS above is a crook by any reasonable standard. Do the crooks involved here already know what the outcome of the upcoming look at Ovarian cancer drug will be? Do they already know what he final outcome for that trial will be?
This stock has an enormous float. Did the investors in the last round of financing just want that float, or do they know something bad about the future of that Ovarian trial, and so demanded the float in return for financing an upcoming failure. You may not know for another 18 months the answer to that question. Of course... you may never know.
Who is this CEO? Someone under the gun, or a partner in crime? I don't know. I didn't do my DD before investing, then pulling out two days later at a loss of 17%, and glad to have gotten out so cheap once I learned the real deal.
I wish that one of the people that quoted the 6K had provided a link because it was not in either of the 6K's submitted May 7. It was in the attached files and in the total transcript, but it was not in the top level doc for either day. So I chose to ignore the warnings. I asked for a link. None was provided.
So many copied and pasted sections of that 6K exhibit and not one link!!!!! Bashers post BS all the time. Why would anyone believe you without a link? Why go to so much trouble to warn people, then not provide a link!!!!!!
That's from July 1, Mr. Wallace-Not
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1113423/000111342315000010/0001113423-15-000010-index.htm
2 EXHIBIT 99.1 q1-2015xex991.htm EX-99.1 1027583
There were 2 6K's filed on May 7. For the controversy at hand, look at the later, the top one. Go down to the second file in the file list, q1-2015xex991.htm. That is where you will find the very special deal the CEO made with the B warrant holders. Those are magic warrants now.
The language for deal is criminally deceptive. Unwrap the layers of BS, one by one, then do the math. Know that the shares corresponding to the warrant that gets referenced twice is simply the number 2. That is, 2 shares for 1 warrant.
By my calcs, the math simplifies to the following:
For 1ea B warrant and 62 cents you get N common shares where N = $2.28/(RSP). RSP here is a somewhat lowball estimate of the recent share price.
You will have paid .271 X that RSP for each share. That stays constant, regardless of how low the SP falls. You will always be able to convert at .271 x the RSP. What changes is the number of shares you will be able to get at that price for 1 warrant. If the RSP were to fall to 1 cent, for example, you will be able to convert that 1 B warrant into $2.28/.01 = 228 common shares, which will cost you 62 cents, not per share, but for all 228 shares combined, ie .271 cents per share.
I believe the intent is to effectively hand the float over to the owners of the B Warrants. It is up to the owners of the B warrants what they do... but at best, this de-risks a failure of the ovarian drug by effectively handing the float to those warrant holders if the drug fails and the share price plummets.
The bashers that have been telling you this were not bashers. So many bashers out there, hard to tell... but this time, they really were just trying to warn you.
But who knows. Maybe these B warrant holders will hang on to see if the Ovarian drug gets the nod to continue. Maybe the SP will recover if that happens and the warrant holders will not steal the float. Not sure I understand what all the possibilies are... except one. They can effectively take your shares from you any time. They could short the stock if necessary to get the snowball rolling... and then roll-up all your shares on the way down.
How so? How could they take the retailer's shares if the retailers refuse to sell? No problem. We are talking about dilution potential on an unlimited scale. They can dilute you out of your shares then do a massive reverse split. And that is surely what they intend to do if this Ovarian drug fails. Not sure what their plans are in the mean time.
How could this be legal? Apparently the only crimes the SEC cares about are crimes committed by women that on paper could defeat a Bush for the presidency. There are no fkng rules.
AEZS. I was referring to AEZS.
AVXL is fine. Has nothing to do with AVXL that was another stock. That was the danger of posting that... confusion or a vehicle for manipulation.
Just saying AVXL is so solid compared to some of the crap out there! Absolute crooks out there running other companies!!!!!!!!!!
It wasn't a shady pinky, it was a NASDAQ listed stock, and there could be people on this board that hold the stock, AEZ....
From the gates of Hell:
I am sorry that part of me strayed honey. It will never happen again. The world out there is crazy! And I don't just mean the stinky pinky world honey. Oh... and your pinky is not stinky at all!!! I love you AVXL!!!!
Actually a little beyond the gates of hell. Then, when it was too late, I ran into this...
"which would permit such Series B Warrant holder to obtain a number of common shares equal to 200% of (i) the total number of common shares with respect to which the Series B Warrant is then being exercised multiplied by (ii) 0.81 divided by (iii) 85% of the quotient of (A) the sum of the VWAP of the common share for each of the five lowest trading days during the fifteen trading day period ending on and including the trading day immediately prior to the applicable Exercise Date, divided by (B) five, less (iv) the total number of common shares with respect to which the Series B Warrant is then being exercised. "
My God! If you ever see this beast or anything remotely resembling it, run for your life! Do not pass go, do not collect $100, do not stop and smell the roses... just run!
This turns out to be the CEO handing the float to the warrant holders. This was hidden in one of two 6K's on the same day. These 6K's weren't even PR'd.
The deal turns out to be that for 1 B warrant and 62 cents you get a number of shares equal to $2.29/RSP where RSP is a low ball calc of the recent share price. At 13.5 cents per share current price for this sht, the warrant holder gets 17 shares, having effectively paid 3.7 cents per share. As the share price dives, as people unwind the above BS and do the math, this ratio explodes further. What stays constant is that the B warrant holder pays .27 X the recent share price for his shares. Again... this ratio stays fixed forever. If the share price were to continue to drop to 1 cent, then the B Warrant, for 62 cents, would buy you 229 shares at an average price of .27 cents per share. And there is nothing stopping it from discending further than that. No limits....
Right in front of God and the "SEC" and everybody. And again, this is not even a pink sheet stock. It's a NASDAQ listed stock.
I got out only having lost my left foot up below my knee. I am a very lucky man.
This is the patent recently granted, correct?
If so, I think it is 273 + some additives... not donepezil, so unfortuately is is not 273-plus, as you know.
For various uses including treating neuropathic pain. Since the MJFF grant was awarded soon after this patent was granted... I wonder if this is what they want to test for Parkinson's. Of course might not be the case.
Neuropathic pain. Peripheral Neuropathy? Peripheral Neuropathy a common symptom from diabetes.
Diabetes coming up again?
Powerful magic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Re "Protein mis-folding and Type II diabetes."
Vely vely intelesting!!!!!!!!!
I'm not finding that Warrant split info on Edgars. Please provide a link. Most people do. Here is what I find.
http://www.aezsinc.com/en/page.php?p=60&q=648
A very vanilla warrant offering. The usual for a struggling biotech.
I have this groundhogs day - like recurring pattern. I go out to the desert looking for diamond bearing rocks. I have this dream of a small ranch with 2 dogs, a cat, a horse, a wife, and 3 kids that I could pull off if I find just one of these diamond bearing rocks.
And I find one of those special rocks. But then I start the long walk home. I get bored. I start thinking about how many more dogs I could own if I were to throw that rock against a curb, and manage to split all the diamonds inside along just the right facets. I could triple the value in one throw! 9 dogs, 3 cats, 3 wives, 9 kids, and 3 houses!!!!! Gotta do it! Gotta toss that rock against the curb!
And I do it, every time. And every time, the diamonds turn to dust.
So 35M warrants yet excercised?
So the S1 shows newly/recently exercised warrants that are now shares. So they are shares, but kld2 would argues that such shares are likely to be sold off ASAP. So that is the question. How many of these will be sold off in the near term?
You would think that at least the private investor's 4.99% might be held long term.
sfe306: So what do you see as the range in possible number of remaining warrants that will likely be dumped in the near term... ie before year end?