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Hey SG, bring up a daily chart on A/U which I'm nearly 1,500 pips underwater on now even though it's only 633 pips of upward price movement against me. Had I had the 3 macd windows on my chart and been aware of the pincher setup, I'd not have taken the foolish long term position that I did, when I did, expecting a reversal soon after. In fact, A/U is just now begining to present a nice fairly tight bearish pinch on the daily chart with the "Four legs" indicator nearly topped and a long run since the last single bullish "CycleIdentifier" bar. It's looking nearly ripe for a reversal based on those three different indicators to me, but I know I could still be in for a number of up days before A/U finally reverses. You could have saved me from myself if you had made a big deal about the macd pincher setup almost a full months time ago. LOL I'll just blame my predicament on you! Feels much better than blaming myself.. lololol...
Don't know SG......Got a new bull candle and double bar bullish alert triggered yesterday or day before and there is a turning to the macd lines but with four legs in mid-window, a fresh bearish single bar CycleIdentifier alert today, and price middle of main chart centered between the "Sixths" indi I use, there's no way I'd bet big on it reversing that's for sure. Just looks like a road bump to me right now or maybe a short term reversal; maybe. But I been wrong before! lol
NP SG....the HA is a big help too in nailing reversal occurances.
Time will tell SG. I'll share what I can as I trade the pinchers using the other two indis to confirm. The more I look at the charts, the more I look at the macd pinches and the way they play out, the more thrilled I am that you offered them up for the rest of us! I'm actually seeing where all my previous indicators and indicator overlays are made even easier to interpret when displayed with the three "true" macd windows. The addition of the triple macd windows on my previous charts was an awesome addition, truly awesome! The interpretations of the IFT, stochs and RSI indicators, and more; all of them are far easier to validate signals with thanks to the pincher setups. Thanks SG!
It's all those "usuallys" that make trading nerve-racking at times SG. I totally agree with everything you said. And those w's and m's you mention can last what seems forever, especially on the 1 and 5 minute charts, so walking away once the pincher setup trade is taken can be necessary just to see the trade through. And in walking away, stop loss settings are necessary and yet in themselves part of the risk when those whipsaws occur.
Now when you say the hardest part of the pincher play is accurate entry points, I'm hoping those double bar alerts from the CycleIdentifier indicator are the simplest and easiest answer to that challenge. I haven't had a single trade yet today due to distractions but I can see where I missed a couple good ones like that UJ long at $81.4 that the double bar CycleIdentifier alerted to after the pincher had occured. I'm going to see if this pattern doesn't present itself over and over again where the pinch occurs but the price continues on in the trend a bit longer before the true reversal events as highlighted by the double bar alert. Hope all I said made sense.
Also regarding the pincher setups.......I am seeing where a pincher, even a tight pincher will occur but there will be no cycleIdentifier alert and the pincher will not prove out a reversal. And the four legs indicator too will not be maxed out either. I'm definately not trading the pincher without further confirmation from those two additional indicators. Here's an example. Now whether there may have been a cycleidentifier alert occur and then dissappear I don't know, but looking back at this chart, there was no confirmation from the cycleidentifier indicator where the red line on the chart is. And that was a nice tight bullish pincher on that 15 minute UJ chart.
What is irritating about these pinchers regardless what other indicators you apply, is that even when the pincher appears to be proving out a reversal, and the reversal begins, you'll oftentimes have a retest of the previous high at the price point where the pincher occured and you'll see the price reverse briefly again during a single candle session on whichever time frame you're looking at and then the price will promptly reverse again really proving out the validity of the pincher, but you'll have either lost your gains in the meantime or have had a stop loss trigger causing small losses anyway. A shakeout of sorts. Very irritating.
I'm very curious how it will play out pennies.
Btw, I think you were very hard on big ben in your earlier post. As a matter of fact I was reading this google article that says that when he was asked at a press meeting today why he was having the meeting he said:
""It used to be that the mystique of central banking was all about not letting anybody know what you were doing," said Mr. Bernanke."
then he goes on to say:
""we have become, I think, a very transparent central bank. ... And I personally have always been a big believer in providing as much information as you can to help the public understand ..."
Now does that sound like the words of a guy that wants to take advantage of the masses of taxpayers for the benefit of the wealthy? He sounds like a straight up sort o' master of the universe type to me.
(hahahahahaha)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704099704576289464036872414.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
I hope it nets me a lot of pips too SG! Both indicators were mentioned in the past on this board and I got them both here.
Now I've found that the CycleIdentifier paints, but only for a while before it sticks usually. That's why it's essential in my mind to pair it up with the four legs indicator which is either topped out or it isn't. And pairing two "in your face" and "easy to read at a glance" indicators with your pincher setup is looking to be a very reliable setup combo for at least scalping, if not for taking the longer term positions.
I should mention that when you go to the smaller 5 and especially 1 minute time frame charts, then there is more "noise" from more numerous double bar alerts on the cycleIdentifier indicator, however the four legs will still either be in the middle of the window or it will be topped out/bottomed out offering good support to the double bars on the cycleIdentifier indi.
Finally I think I've got it. Below is a 15 minute chart of A/U consisting of the main chart, followed by the three "true macd" indi windows with your 12/26/9 settings SG. Below that is the "Four legs" indicator and below that the "CycleIdentifier" indicator. I've placed verticle red lines at the three points on the chart wherein the macds pinch and the Four legs indicator has either bottomed or topped out in its window and the CycleIdentifier has presented either a double green bar or a double red bar which are the brightest of the bars in that window with the single bars being darker and narrower obviously. Now the key to the longer distance price movement in pips once the double bar appears is relateable to whether or not the four legs indi has topped or bottomed in its window. The macd pinch helps confirm the potential price reversal alert from the other two indicators beautifully. It's worth further backetesting and at least demo-trading with while using wise stoploss settings. Hope I've explained my point and been of help here.
I'll be back in a while and pick up where I left off SG. I think the added macd pincher indis to my other numerous indis is slowing down one of my MT4 platforms so I need to move them over to my other platform and try again. I don't know why the pic wouldn't load, but I tried twice and it wouldn't do it. Again maybe something to do with too much memory. Ugh. Definately worth taking a hard look at though so I'll be back to try and give the visual to what I'm talking about!
I'm going to have to try and reload the chart......wtheck...
Ok.......I've left the grid lines up for you to see the correlation between the three indis and timing, but look to the left side of this 15 minute A/U chart where the double green bar on the CycleIdentifier indi has triggered and just below that where the Four legs indi lines have bottomed to base of the indi window and then below that to the two "true macd" windows where the pinch has occured and then look at the price movement following. If you were to look at the 5 or 1 minute chart, you'd get a lot more noise from more frequent cycleIdentifier bars, both double and single but you'd still see the same correlation between the three separate indis as they trigger or present a reversal point at the same time.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2011/4/27/chwhjau_15_minute_27_april_2011_#1.gif
I'd be happy to SG, give me a few minutes here and I'll throw a couple or few up for you.
Now slap the cycleIdentifier and four legs MT4 indicators to that chart SG, and let's see what ya got! LOL Sorry, can't help myself; I'm excited! lolol
As long as you're having fun and we're all making more gains than losses, it's all more than good SG! And thank goodness I came across this board with you, git and mainly pennies for all the time he's spent with me babysitting my ignorant butt.
Don't let it get you down jav.......there's money to be made in the forex 5 days a week and the week ain't yet over.
Hey folks......if you'll do a little backtesting with the pincher setup while adding the "CycleIdentifier" and "Four legs" MT4 indicators, I think you'll find that on the 15 minute charts at least you'll get the longest run of pips on your trade if you take the trade when the four legs indi is maxed out at top of window and bottom of window and the cycleIdentifier indi shows a double bar alert and the pincher is most dramatic/at it's tightest pinch. The combo of the three MT4 indis looks to be a winner!
Dang SG, but there's a enough of a difference between the "True Macd" and the macd that comes standard with my FXCM and Alpari MT4 platforms that the standard macd is just unusable for the pinch setup. It just presents the pinch too late; way too slow. Maybe its parameters can be changed to align with the "True MACD" but I'm not going to take the time to look into it. I'll just use the "True" macd indi.
I haven't visited the site for over two years now, but I remember Freto's House of Pinchers site. I didn't know you were one of the first to discover the dramatic and usefull pattern that the pinch shows on a chart. Now if I can just get all my settings and parameters right I'll be off to the races....
Wow SG, this takes me back to the pincher setups that I marvelled over while I was trading pink sheet shit stocks. The pincher was amazingly dependable while the message board and company info or b.s. was anything but reliable or dependable for trading. Just a matter of fine tuning entrys and trusting the setup while keeping a stop, just in case. And I can sure see looking at your chart why N/J was in a NO TRADE zone on that 1 minute time frame. So I think I get your point now; thanks!
Thanks SG. I wouldn't complain if you were to post an annotated chart some time illustrating precise points on the chart of precisely what you just said. I'm more a visual learner than an imaginative learner. In other words, I learn more from watching the history channel than I do from reading historical books. lol
That's what I'm counting on and that's why I'm keeping positions light while on the way toward the next reversal on the larger wave on the longer time frame. I don't know what else to do, other than scalp my way to lower losses in the meantime. Certainly not the best way to trade, but hopefully I'll end up well ahead by the time I close out my first initial entry some 500 pips earlier on the chart.
Well and that's the challenge for me. With the artificial bouying of the markets, then the technicals are no longer offering up dependable reversal spots, or should I say reversal spots that offer enough pippage to get back to even on. I'm counting on the ascending weekly resistance line to give me enough reversal to get back to even and even profitable.
All I got to do is survive in the mean time. And I do mean "Mean"! LOL At 970 pips against me, I'm feeling like more than a novice here. Still having 90% usb margin though, I can survive quite a while longer.
A/U is going to have to drop a lot more than 30 pips before I finally take profits pennies! LOL
How long would you say you find yourself holding the pincher trades before finally taking profits on average SG? I'm guessing that if the pinch occurs on the chart of a larger time frame, then you'll wait longer than if the pinch occurs on say a 5 minute chart, but is that the case all the time?
Also, I can't help but notice looking at your chart below that oftentimes the price will reverse a fair number of pips before the pinch actually presents itself at it's tightest point before the lines turn and roll over reversing from top of indi window toward bottom or vice versa, so how can you make most of the price action and pippage potential?
Yup git......I should have trusted the 4 hour macd vice the triple top line of resistance.
Here we go......A/U bust'n a move up on that latest breakout! LOL I can't win for losing lately......
I won't be adding again for another 250 pips, but I'm loading the boat at the ascending line of resistance on the 4 hour chart and it's going to make it'll either make it all good for me then or it will break me at that point I do believe.
I think I understand drewbe. Anyway, maybe a good EW count would help take some of the confusion out of it. I am currently waiting for USD/CHF to hit a weekly descending trendline low that will occur somewhere below $80. I'm guessing that that may be when A/U finally tops out and the bulls finally relinquish control. Unfortunately it may be several weeks out or more. And maybe my plan is no smarter than pissing up a rope.
Ah....the "blue onion" pattern! Yes! I grew up eating off the same pattern on the fine "china" my mother bought, but we only ate off of it on Christmas and Easter. The rest of the year, it was a nice white corel plate with a fancy blue line around the edge. I do love fine english china imported from china!
There ya go git! You nailed it! But you have to give the credit card companies some due credit, 'cause they give you points and stuff. In fact, the more you owe them, the more points you git! LOL
NP drewbe.......but I have to ask....would you mind throwing up an annotated chart showing exactly what you mean? I'm not sure I'm following you, even though you weren't intentionally addressing me. I am very curious as to what point you were making. Call me slow but visuals help me immensely.
LOLol.....wonderful git! Doesn't it just make you proud to be on the wrong side of the fence once the gate's closed and the tide begins to roll in? LOL
I'm hoping to survive long enough to see the tide turn this time where I can ride it out to safety, landing on some firm green spot in the sea of currency eventually.
Right git...triple top or just another line of resistance to be broken for a brand new, fresh breakout for A/U? I just added one more small short here to add to my three other small shorts which are over 150 pips apart from each other and now against me some 800 pips total collectively. Is that the way to trade, or what? Now look where I'd be if I'd chosen to go long those 800 odd pips ago. :(
Good to see you posting and back with us pennies! I think most of us missed your input to one degree or another; in my case, quite a bit. lol And it's good to know I'm not the only trader waiting out an A/U reversal. Speaking of which......
If you look at the two aqua blue colored lines on my main daily chart and macd window, you'll see the divergence that prompted me to take a short position some 370 or so pips below current price at $1.0295. That was my initial small starter entry. And you can see by the 1st red arrow where I took the position. I had every intention of letting it ride in my favor to the MA21 line at first and then as far as it would fall after that. But instead of reversing, the price moved up to touch the aqua blue line for a third time and after pulling back nearly 100 pips to my entry spot, it bounced and has been running against me ever since. You can see where I added again about 220 pips later and then again for a 3rd entry some 160 pips above that. So I have three small positions going against me and more than I'm comfortable with, but I'm still at 92% usbl margin so I can last quite a while at this rate. So now my concern is where to add heavily so I can turn the losses to break even again and still have a nice position going in my favor.
Btw, looking at the heavy blue line on my monthly chart below, I'm afraid $1.10 is in the works, maybe more! Right now I've got an open order to fill a double down position at that $1.10. Knowing my luck the midterm top will occur just beneath my open order and I will miss being filled. And the price will pullback but not enough to get me back to even and then bounce again breaking out even above $1.10. Very frustrating. I should have taken the smaller loss when I saw that the price had broken out instead of reversing on the daily chart.
Wow git.......I don't know how I missed this message but thanks! Not just for the reply regarding the "cute" indicator, but for the child ID theft info. I hadn't even considered it as they are so young still, but I'll be looking into it now. Thanks again for the mention!
I think I'm begining to git it git. lol Thanks!
So if the box size is 5 and the price moves 15 pips then there will be a new x or o depending of whether a reversal is occuring or not? Is that right?
Changing the box size puts a heck of a lot more "x"s and "o"s on the chart to better visualize patterns. Thanks for posting the patterns redirect earlier btw git. It does help.
Now the question in my mind is how much slack does the trader have in price entry choices once the new x or o appears on the chart triggering an entry? If that made any sense at all.....