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This is a great 15min Video,
Here it is in a nutshell. What a mess! http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/i_video/main500251.shtml?id=3756665n
That is
a broken chart. Might have been a test back in 11/07 too(3rd). Jan 08 has turned that chart ugly. Would someone please ring the bell when the bottom is in? Sounds like a job for Aimster :) Ken
Hi Tom, Fed Fix
Looks like they broke the darn thing. LOL. Could you pull up a 18 month or so chart of SP500, shows 1360 sping board effect nicely, then the bust a few weeks ago. We can all make much more $$$$ if we understand the trade zone we are in,, looks like intermediate top, but what about a bottom, TIA if you can do it,( Dr. T. Veale, Doctorate of Chartology) Ken
Hey Tom,
/////I'm content to sell into any strength here.//// I hear ya and I did just that today. Looks like the Fed is going to save the Financials one way or another. That group is so beaten down, the XLF move to $29.03 with about 1/2 hr left does not surprise me. If we correct again, maybe they won't get hit so hard,,cash waiting if they do,, I'd like to do my part and provide liquidity :) Ken
Took a decent
chunk of ETFC yesterday and brought it in the warehouse. 60% of that chunk just went out the shipping door today in 3 separate orders. :)
Hi Tom ,How much left?
One thing that really sticks in my mind was a chart I saw on TV not so many days ago. I believe we bounced off 1360ish and went much higher twice in past 15 or 16 months. SO what is different this time? Well we breached the 1360 and fell a few weeks ago,, Why? Earnings looked a lot better back then on those 2 other tests,,,, now we have retail, housing, banking, etc all with much lower earnings, soooo what was our spring board has now seemingly become our resistance. Interesting to see if we can hold that 1325- 65ish range or will we make a new low here. Everyone who bought down there is probably looking to dump, looks like that may have started the last 1/2 hour or so today, Ken
Huge
and busy day today. I see SP pushes past 1360, closer to 1400, How much left? 12 min later,,,,,, I see the SP is weakening again,,, 1360ish may be a ceiling for now.
Hi Al,
Yes, my wife was overcharged for years on a prescription price fixin, thingy and we got around $375 or so. Also, the PBHG Funds had some back dating problems or such back about 5 or 6 years ago. Here came our check in the mail for over $8600. We had owned 4 of their stock funds for years and years. So give it a shot.
Hi Tom,
I keep getting knocked out of my positions on the upside. Now I'm not complaining about any gains, but its time I think to dive in a little deeper here. XLF still looks great at these prices, but I was disappointed in this recent run up. Seems several financials ran up 3x what XLF did, but which one to pick? I'd pick the Enron-ish one if I chose just one bank or financial. I'd like to take a bigger chunk back in the $25's but I made the mistake and saw XLF back in 01/02/03 under $20. We could be one annoucement away from that move back under $20. It's the most compelling of what I've traded lately though. Chart seems to be basing on XLF, just my take on the banks, Q's are trading 26x, seems pricey in a bear market, EGOV chart flipped upside down,40x earnings, I just got lucky there Fri and taken out at $8.19. Look for the banks to get beaten down further when I jump back in, make room in your mattress for cash, NITE's move was so straight up it scares me, more correction to come,, Ken
OT/ Your Tax Rebates
Did I hear this right? While in a conversation, I thought I heard the radio say that one of the candidates said something like the following,,,,,,,, How will the rebates back to the American public stimulate the US economy? Our government will just sell $150 billion more in bonds to the Chineese, who we will owe even more interest to,,, and then the public will spend that money on mostly China made products here,,, so who's economy are we boosting?
Hi Tom,
Your hair is not on fire but that's one heck of a trade. Congrats on that move, I like it, I like it! Is this fun or what? I'd like to give you a public thank you for stepping in and providing liquidity when ITB needed you the most,,,,, and also for the willingness to part with some of those shares to the greedy folks who just had to buy them at higher prices. Congrats, Ken
Hi Al,
Is your hair on fire? I've been trading like my hair is on fire, and I like it. As for wash sales and the like, I use TurboTax Deluxe, hit the download info button from E-Trade, and forget it, the software does it all. Ken
Got sold out
of NITE and XLF yesterday, and was sold out of EGOV by noon today. Unbelieveable ups and downs in this market. XLF starting to look good again. I see the Q's are beginning to knock at my door again too. 100% cash again, I don't know if today's downdraft will continue. Parameters parameters parameters, I'll have the weekend to take a hard look at why this is going right so far. No position now = No trading = No
$$$$$$ for my account. I'll need to take a position Monday. I have some beefs about XLF.
Hi Toofy,
Good Job! Plan your Trade and Trade your Plan.
Hi Tom,
Cool looking graph, I like it.
My hair is on fire again!
Took a position in NITE this early AM only to have shipping call up front later to inform me some of it went out the back door this PM. Can your hair catch on fire from whiplash? Nitey Nite, Ken
Hi MM,
An intersting note to the good side, both SPY and DIA blew thru their support levels early, $128.81 & $118.16, way thru, but recovered to close back on top. Maybe too early for a bottom but that was a nice comeback today. One more good dive and I'll need a little to sell back up into any strength.
Apple down -$17.24 Extended Hours,
Down over 11% ($138.40) with less than an hour left. Dragging QQQQ with it and SPY & DIA off a little more.
Hi Tom DIA,
just broke under 52 week low so Dow30 is right there
too.
Hi Aimster,
thanks for the link.
Hi Neil,
Fed saved the day here with a rate cut. Interesting where to from here? I to have lots of individual stocks I like here at these levels, but most likely will buy into an index.
Hi Slow,
Thanks, I do have to re-enter at some point here soon. SP500 went to new 52 week low, waiting for Nas100 and Dow to follow, then a washout day, then I think I'll jump. Hard not to though its raining good ideas out there.
Why
would anyone overseas who just lost their shirt in CDO's be inclined to buy anymore American debt? The Fed refinancings this year could get real interesting. I for one am very worried about this. Screwing people with CDO's is no way to get them to finance your government's debts. Has the perfect storm arrived?
Hi MM,
Any guess on a floor here?
The Japan
market opens in 26 minutes. I'm going to make some popcorn and sit and watch with mommy.
Where's the floor?
Where's the floor for QQQQ? http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=qqqq&code=BSTK
That link has a rather negative view. It also happens to be 100% correct. Looks like the larger Nas100 stocks were all down nearly 5 to 6 % in Europe last I looked. My 21 yrs of experience though is telling me anything that negative deserves a good look. That link will change its mind sometime. I'll need a position sometime soon before it does for maximum profits.
Hi Toof,
Good advice, except a steep drop will force weak hands to liquidate for margin calls. That is what we can't control. I just checked, 100% dry cash powder here. I do have a couple ideas in mind, if I don't buy one of the indexes.
Hi MM,
V wave at 30%,,,,,, but I'll think I'll wait awhile longer than to drop 70% in tomorrow. Just a gut feeling looking at those futures that the floor is falling out. 100% cash fells good right now. If there's not enough puts around, and there's not, folks will have to sell stock to raise cash on margin calls. I think Neil is correct, folks are going to get blasted out of there positions. I will consider a small position at the close.
Hi Neil,
Down 520 points on the futures last I looked. Circuit breaker doesn't kick in till Dow falls about 1350 points, or 10% of last years close. Lots of margin calling tomorrow I'm sure. There's not nearly enough puts around to make a floor either. I'm 100% cash, maybe I should take a nibble right at the close tomorrow.
Hi Adam,
When I switched over to the Q's the 52 week trading range was $42.06 - 55.07. So I set up shop to make some $$$$ in this range. I recieved an email from Don Carlson reminding me that the Q chart was breaking down. SP500 at 52 week low but the Nas100 and Dow are not there yet. It is my gut belief after reading the charts that the Q's and the Dow are both headed for new lows. I could be 100% wrong, but I don't think so. I picked a bad time to commit so I backed out. Fri was just a guess at a deadcat bounce. My take on it is QQQQ will bust $42.06 to the downside, and soon. I just didn't want to sit here with my hands in my pocket doing nothing, when the charts look so awful. Nothing wrong with that? I'm up over 5% since 12/3/07 and going to hang on to it a little longer. I've got a nice short list I can re-enter to once we get some solid footing. Where's QQQQ going? My 2 cent opinion is $40ish soon, with a final washout $35 to $37ish by around 3/1/08. Just my take on it.
OT/ Hey Tom
Live shot of Lambeau Field, Go Pack Go!
http://www.nbc26.com/weather/cameras/5029306.html
Looks like
the extended hours bid for QQQQ dropped from $45.17 to $44.08 in a matter of seconds at the close. No takers though at that price. Would that be the floor falling out?
Hi MM,
Looks like we are at opposite ends with our cash positions. You should come out sweet since I blow it everytime(smile). How weak is this market? It can't even rally with me out of it(smile). Best always,,
100% Cash Again,
dropped out rather early today with yesterdays buy on QQQQ. Fed did not ease, nothing seemed to want to move this market forward. So I cashed out with a $27 gain, I'm back to 100% cash. Looking for some resemblence of a bottom here. A capitulation day with a big spike in the volatility index would help me put money back long term. Neither the Dow or Nasdaq 100 are at 52 week lows yet, so I think we have a ways to go. Tried to play a snapback today that never materialized.
Small Nibble
taken today. Didn't plan on it but these moves are just too compelling. What a wreck, but that's ok, I'll just scavenger around and sell some of these market pieces for profit. Today's buy was actually a small calculated buy that the Fed drops rates B4 open tomorrow, if we get a good snapback rally tomorrow, I will sell them back(smile), followed by the ensuing bloodbath next week,, when a larger position can be taken. Ken
Hi Aimster,
Currently using AI for record keeping. I'm not exactly Aiming per se at the moment. I just went back 100% cash this morning. Put it in that 5.05% complete saving account at Etrade with the rest of the idle cash already there. Waiting for a bottom here. All 3 are great programs, I wanted to buy all three to support those who took the time to make such a product for us. We all know we can do it by hand anytime. Ken
Sold Out,
went to cash out this morning what I picked up on extended hours yesterday and decided to go back to 100% cash. This move was prompted by an email I got to look for a lower bottom here. Ken
Keep the doors open,
What I shipped yesterday out the back door, just ran back in the front door today. Aftermarket open till 8pm, I'll have to adjust and get a few more with this down draft before 8pm. Ken
Hi Tom, NFL
All the pieces are there. The Pack can get it done. Last 4 last year, 14-3 this year so far, that's 18-3 last 21 games. San Diego gonna take the Pats.
Hi Aimster,
But the A-floppy disk games with bad graphics were so much more fun.