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$500m is roughly $12.50 per share. I'd like to hear the shorts justify an $8 pps when that happens. Not that they really try to justify the current pps with anything but gibberish anyway.
See, FBG? We actually kind of agree. I need a beer now. lol
Total nonsense. The street's biotech analysts do not get "convinced" or "unconvinced" of a biotech's viability by its CEO. They review clinical trial results and analyze the biotech market in which the company's products would compete. ADXS's trial results, and the market for its vaccines, are both fantastic. Nice try, though.
FBG, I realize that you believe DOC did the private placement right after the Amgen deal as a sordid means to suppress the share price. However, I think you will admit that there is no evidence at all to confirm that; it is basically conjecture. More importantly, you know full well that increasing the outstanding shares by a small percentage at $12.50 does not in any substantive way justify a share price of $8. You also know full well that there is no real substantive reason for the share price being so low, and that we are woefully misvalued. So, given those facts, there is a logical disconnect between the progress (and true value) of the company and the current share price. Therefore, Dan cannot logically be blamed for it. If Dan was really mismanaging then the current share price would accurately value the company. But it doesn't. I have no issue with you faulting Dan for some of his moves. Where you lose me is when you cite any of those alleged missteps as a justification for the share price. There IS no substantive reason for the share price. It is pure b.s., and entirely the result of short manipulation.
Do you have specific suggestions for how Dan can control the share price and move it up? What if the short cabal of manipulators doesn't go along with the plan? Get rid of him anyway, for not stopping the manipulation?
Well said. You wouldn't sell at 20 anyway, waiting for the binary event or bust, so what do you care what happens in the interim?
True, Dawson. The market is very thin in ADXS. No real volume of shares available, just the small, churning volume of the robotraders. No wonder there is little accumulation. If they tried to buy 100k shares in "real" trading volume the stock skyrockets. When the real investors aren't buying, the robos take it down on nothing. That's the loop we are caught in. Thin market, all daytraders, swing traders and robots.
No, FBG, all of ADXS's peers got taken down several multiples of the XBI. Not just ADXS. Check out XIOP and ADRO, for example.
Lots of HFT churning today in almost all small bios. Collusion central.
That's true, Blue. But well before we even get the first FDA approval we will be bought out anyway. The "approvable" interim P3 data will be enough. Or EU approval, or even the likelihood of it.
Well ADXS vaccines are certainly biosimilar to each other. The indications are components of a platform technology. But I believe "biosimilar" in this FDA context refers to biosimilarity to previously approved molecules, and ADXS has none of those yet. Not sure what the upshot is, but Blue's hypothesis seems correct. Essentially expedited consideration/approval for additional ADXS indications under the same platform as an approved vaccine. If so, we still gotta break the ice first.
Ouch. That hurt my brain.
We defied the sector weakness earlier today, and then it broke. But people were initially absorbing the selling.
Mpre, keep in mind that there is a federal statute that affirmatively prevents the Feds from negotiating drug prices with pharmas. So even if Trump wants to do it he would need the GOP Congress to go along with it by amending the statute. I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.
Oh, sure. lol. Dan reminds me of Gandhi. Or maybe Mother Teresa.
Hear hear, FBG!
Shub, I wonder if ADRO is nervous about its long-term picture in light of NEO and HOT. I would guess "yes."
I wonder if ADRO will also try to infringe our NEO and HOT patents.
Those are prophylactic vaccines.
Surely BPs want AXAL. The question is, how much will they pay, and when? Maybe DOC raised money in August to improve his bargaining leverage.
I agree, this does smell like imminent news. Wednesday in particular was abnormal, and good follow through the rest of last week.
What pharma partner has ever bought ADXS shares in the market?
The traders are riding this up, and the sector also. Will cause a close above the 200-day of 9.42 on Tuesday, due to the strong close today, for a Friday--the swing shorts who usually load up early in the week are done for now. They are not bouncing it off resistance at this point. Good week coming. At least touch 10.30.
The mm's have surely been dealing from the short side. So any significant buying causes a bit of a scramble on their part, because they have no inventory to sell to buyers. Hence the crazy volatility of recent memory.
You mean like Aduro's CEO?
True, Bomba. And AGEN, despite being the furthest along of that group, has only two indications in Phase 1.
Smasse, my limited understanding of it is that those other companies are primarily in checkpoint inhibitors. I'm guessing that checkpoint alone is not as effective as the combo with Listeria vaccine. And those companies are in very early stages of development.
I'd stick with ADXS, personally. My sources tell me that ADXS's technology is better, despite both being Listeria-based, and ADXS has positioned itself better with its indications. Not to mention that ADXS is relatively much cheaper at current prices. I also don't particularly like ADRO's management, which sells shares while ADXS's buys every month.
You are confusing ADXS with Aduro.
Who is "they?" There's a difference between analysts predicting revenue for unapproved drugs and the company itself doing it. Please try to use logic.
How will ADXS show 1.19/share in net profit this year? Milestone payments? I don't see how it's possible.
Excellent, Bomba.
Who knows? It's certainly possible. Someone is buying up the warrants also.
I'm guessing leak, Bomba. Which, of course, explains the action. I doubt a big fish would buy/cover in such a frenzied manner in the normal course . . . best to you too, my friend.
What is up with this 7% rally on strong volume? Is there any news, or is a big fish simply buying/covering?
Or, FBG, DOC's knows that his job is not to try to control the short term pps but rather to create long term shareholder value, and he used the momentum of the Amgen deal to get a better price on an offering. If you don't think that the short machine would have brought the stock back down without the private placement you are kidding yourself. How does a private placement at 12.50 justify revaluing the stock at 8? It doesn't. There doesn't have to be a reason for manipulation, other than that they can get away with it. You endlessly search for a substantive reason for the mis-valuation of ADXS, which doesn't exist.
Personally, I'm still trying to figure out what, supposedly, Dan did wrong to justify the current pps. Progress every indication in an efficient and successful manner, while obtaining Fast Track, SPA, etc.? Sign a huge $500 million deal with Amgen for a pre-clinical platform? Raise money once in a while, which every clinical biotech needs? Oh, wait, I forgot, he and management issued themselves a couple of hundred thousand options. Quite unprecedented. A "first" in corporate America. lol
Continue with what shady deals? I don't recall any. Oh, he must mean the ones with Merck, Astra, Amgen, etc. The height of shadiness, that whole group.
Companies do not "project" revenue for products that are not approved yet. Means nothing that they have not predicted revenue, or that they do not spend great time discussing it in corporate presentation. Conditional approval of AT-104 would bring revenue. That is not debatable. The question is when?
Bourbon, I have become convinced that Adage and the other tutes put up with this ludicrously low market valuation because: (1) they are in it for the big score, and do not care much about short term pps; and (2) they are earning 20%+ in interest on their shares lent to the shorts, which does not impair their ability to capitalize on the big run when it happens (i.e., they still own their shares). Best of both worlds, for them. In addition, I think the street knows that Adage etc. are quite content with this and will not rock the boat, for now, so the traders feel safe. Adage may want the shorts to maintain their positions so that they continue paying interest. As a collateral benefit, when Adage wants to it can easily orchestrate a squeeze by simply recalling its shares.