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Hear hear, FBG!
Shub, I wonder if ADRO is nervous about its long-term picture in light of NEO and HOT. I would guess "yes."
I wonder if ADRO will also try to infringe our NEO and HOT patents.
Those are prophylactic vaccines.
Surely BPs want AXAL. The question is, how much will they pay, and when? Maybe DOC raised money in August to improve his bargaining leverage.
I agree, this does smell like imminent news. Wednesday in particular was abnormal, and good follow through the rest of last week.
What pharma partner has ever bought ADXS shares in the market?
The traders are riding this up, and the sector also. Will cause a close above the 200-day of 9.42 on Tuesday, due to the strong close today, for a Friday--the swing shorts who usually load up early in the week are done for now. They are not bouncing it off resistance at this point. Good week coming. At least touch 10.30.
The mm's have surely been dealing from the short side. So any significant buying causes a bit of a scramble on their part, because they have no inventory to sell to buyers. Hence the crazy volatility of recent memory.
You mean like Aduro's CEO?
True, Bomba. And AGEN, despite being the furthest along of that group, has only two indications in Phase 1.
Smasse, my limited understanding of it is that those other companies are primarily in checkpoint inhibitors. I'm guessing that checkpoint alone is not as effective as the combo with Listeria vaccine. And those companies are in very early stages of development.
I'd stick with ADXS, personally. My sources tell me that ADXS's technology is better, despite both being Listeria-based, and ADXS has positioned itself better with its indications. Not to mention that ADXS is relatively much cheaper at current prices. I also don't particularly like ADRO's management, which sells shares while ADXS's buys every month.
You are confusing ADXS with Aduro.
Who is "they?" There's a difference between analysts predicting revenue for unapproved drugs and the company itself doing it. Please try to use logic.
How will ADXS show 1.19/share in net profit this year? Milestone payments? I don't see how it's possible.
Excellent, Bomba.
Who knows? It's certainly possible. Someone is buying up the warrants also.
I'm guessing leak, Bomba. Which, of course, explains the action. I doubt a big fish would buy/cover in such a frenzied manner in the normal course . . . best to you too, my friend.
What is up with this 7% rally on strong volume? Is there any news, or is a big fish simply buying/covering?
Or, FBG, DOC's knows that his job is not to try to control the short term pps but rather to create long term shareholder value, and he used the momentum of the Amgen deal to get a better price on an offering. If you don't think that the short machine would have brought the stock back down without the private placement you are kidding yourself. How does a private placement at 12.50 justify revaluing the stock at 8? It doesn't. There doesn't have to be a reason for manipulation, other than that they can get away with it. You endlessly search for a substantive reason for the mis-valuation of ADXS, which doesn't exist.
Personally, I'm still trying to figure out what, supposedly, Dan did wrong to justify the current pps. Progress every indication in an efficient and successful manner, while obtaining Fast Track, SPA, etc.? Sign a huge $500 million deal with Amgen for a pre-clinical platform? Raise money once in a while, which every clinical biotech needs? Oh, wait, I forgot, he and management issued themselves a couple of hundred thousand options. Quite unprecedented. A "first" in corporate America. lol
Continue with what shady deals? I don't recall any. Oh, he must mean the ones with Merck, Astra, Amgen, etc. The height of shadiness, that whole group.
Companies do not "project" revenue for products that are not approved yet. Means nothing that they have not predicted revenue, or that they do not spend great time discussing it in corporate presentation. Conditional approval of AT-104 would bring revenue. That is not debatable. The question is when?
Bourbon, I have become convinced that Adage and the other tutes put up with this ludicrously low market valuation because: (1) they are in it for the big score, and do not care much about short term pps; and (2) they are earning 20%+ in interest on their shares lent to the shorts, which does not impair their ability to capitalize on the big run when it happens (i.e., they still own their shares). Best of both worlds, for them. In addition, I think the street knows that Adage etc. are quite content with this and will not rock the boat, for now, so the traders feel safe. Adage may want the shorts to maintain their positions so that they continue paying interest. As a collateral benefit, when Adage wants to it can easily orchestrate a squeeze by simply recalling its shares.
It is relatively unlikely, but the fact remains that Astra itself could simply buy the company instead of signing a development/licensing/distribution deal.
Here comes the M&A wave. Just wait until the repatriation of overseas funds amnesty hits. No wonder the biotech sector has been rallying.
I think you mean $200 million revenue stream, not $200 billion. If they had $200 billion in revenue then their shareholders are really getting ripped off with a $5.2 billion buyout.
Ariad news: note that Sarissa Capital Management--the fund that recently made a sizable investment in ADXS--is the largest institutional holder of Ariad. Obviously, they will make a killing. And I heard a rumor that Sarissa in some way instigated or encouraged the talks leading to the buyout.
Please provide your astute analysis of the flaws in ADXS's science that support your conclusion that ADXS is a "scam." Perhaps a failed trial or even bad results. I'll take even one example. Thanks in advance.
Exactly, Blue. PetX getting approval will be a pleasant surprise at this point, but the lack of approval is not really hurting anything.
Gajj, everyone know AT-105 will be approved. The science of it has already been proven, really. My point was that the market is not waiting for it as some sort of binary event, and the delay in approval is not providing any real reason for the share price, or even a short-contrived reason.
With all due respect to those who think PetX is a big deal, it's really not much more than a footnote in the ADXS story, and it surely is not something that tutes or analysts care much about either way. It'll be a little "gravy" when they get it done, and that's about it. So the delay is not really much to worry about.
The mm's and short hedgies have been very dedicated in trying to keep the chart broken down. It's all traders at this point.
He's judged on the same thing as all immature biotech CEO's: development of the science. Which is going swimmingly. Stock price does not equal the state of progress. In fact, it reflects the opposite, for no good reason. If the manipulators were working in the other direction and the biotech market was still soaring, and the stock was at 40, nobody would be complaining about him. Share price bias.
A buyout could come at any time. Now, during P3, or after.
No question. Very possible. "Irrational" works both ways. Lots of catalysts this year. But the real key is offloading these manipulating shorts. When they are done, we will see some serious fireworks, triggered by some significant news event.
I don't know when, FBG. I only know that it is inevitable. Impossible to predict the timing, since there is no rational basis for the current valuation by any reasonable measure of it. The current market cap is a temporary result of a highly-coordinated suppression scheme largely enabled by a very weak sector, and nothing else.
But wait, I thought the reason for our low market cap compared to ADRO's is Wall Street's disgust with our CEO and BODs?
CAR-T scares me, but if I had to choose one I'd go with ZIOP, due to its inclusion of a T-reg modulator.