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Since when have shorts ever needed a reason to work the stock down? The more progress the company made, the more they manipulated and shorted, for the last 18 months.
Exactly. The private placement did not cause or justify the significant decline below the placement price.
Easy, I think you are ignoring the speed with which EU approval is possible. Can't wait til the last minute for a distribution plan.
Seems pretty clear that the traders/mm's the last few weeks are anticipating (or worried about) Wednesday news. Then they work it back down when it doesn't come.
Interesting that ADXS would highlight that article, which is relevant to ADXS but also relatively tenuous. Trying to figure out if it signals anything other than providing general information.
Mypekei, it seems quite possible that your email prompted all of those FDA trial status updates. I've never seen it be so current.
True, Dawson. ADXS longs have been resilient, and I don't think the shorts anticipated that, which is a major reason for the stalemate. They can't get the shares they need, so they just tread water while trading the range. Something has to give, and it will be in our favor. I often wonder why they waste their time trying to scare kings out. Their faux opinions have zero effect.
It is funny, and it's also precisely the reaction that shorts hope that ADXS longs have.
I don't necessarily think it's Astra. Most people do, though. I would place my bet on Amgen, personally.
Some people have the view that somehow a CEO has control of the share price. So if the stock gets manipulated, for example, it's the CEO's fault.
Good thought. They call that "pull" demand in marketing circles.
What might cause a sudden increase in urgency? Anticipated FDA tide shift? Thoughts of a suitor? Having more money available? A simple desire to pick up the pace?
What does that signal to you, James? Something other than the recruitment will be easier/faster?
Wow, ADXS now has six trials actively recruiting. Just checked the FDA website.
Fidelity only purchased in August, didn't they?
You found it, Dew. Nice work.
I have that problem, keeping it all straight. I need a spreadsheet or something.
Thanks, Catt. I had a feeling my memory could be off a bit.
Sam, I believe the GOG results were actually more like 50% with the continuous dosing regimen that was cut short? No reason to believe that such results would not have continued or improved, if given more time.
Yes, jdelan. A ROFR essentially means that the seller has to at least give the holder of that right the opportunity to match the best alternative offer. In other words you can't sell it to someone else under terms that are equal or lesser to the holder's offer. The holder gets the last shot at the deal.
The mechanics of a "right of first refusal" are often misunderstood. It generally does not require the seller (ADXS) to approach and negotiate with the holder of the ROFR (Astra) before anyone else. For example, ADXS can strike a tentative agreement with a third-party, but then it must offer the terms of that agreement to the holder of the ROFR (Astra), who can either accept it or reject it. The third-party can then up its bid, and a competition ensues. But a "right of first refusal" does not necessarily mean "right of first negotiation."
I've never bought the hypothesis that they would delay treating people for a couple of months for that purpose. I'm not even sure why either ADXS or Astra would care--when negotiating a license for AXAL--that a few patients already have started dosing. What relevance does that timing have?
It's virtually certain that patients are already being dosed in Phase 3. It is not an event that technically requires a PR or an 8-k. For whatever reason, ADXS has decided not to announce it. Which is interesting. They must have their reasons.
Not to mention that a key hire getting a bunch of stock options to come to a company is not exactly unusual in corporate America. Yawn.
Because he doesn't have any ADXS shares. It's George Bushke, former IR Director at YMB.
$500m is roughly $12.50 per share. I'd like to hear the shorts justify an $8 pps when that happens. Not that they really try to justify the current pps with anything but gibberish anyway.
See, FBG? We actually kind of agree. I need a beer now. lol
Total nonsense. The street's biotech analysts do not get "convinced" or "unconvinced" of a biotech's viability by its CEO. They review clinical trial results and analyze the biotech market in which the company's products would compete. ADXS's trial results, and the market for its vaccines, are both fantastic. Nice try, though.
FBG, I realize that you believe DOC did the private placement right after the Amgen deal as a sordid means to suppress the share price. However, I think you will admit that there is no evidence at all to confirm that; it is basically conjecture. More importantly, you know full well that increasing the outstanding shares by a small percentage at $12.50 does not in any substantive way justify a share price of $8. You also know full well that there is no real substantive reason for the share price being so low, and that we are woefully misvalued. So, given those facts, there is a logical disconnect between the progress (and true value) of the company and the current share price. Therefore, Dan cannot logically be blamed for it. If Dan was really mismanaging then the current share price would accurately value the company. But it doesn't. I have no issue with you faulting Dan for some of his moves. Where you lose me is when you cite any of those alleged missteps as a justification for the share price. There IS no substantive reason for the share price. It is pure b.s., and entirely the result of short manipulation.
Do you have specific suggestions for how Dan can control the share price and move it up? What if the short cabal of manipulators doesn't go along with the plan? Get rid of him anyway, for not stopping the manipulation?
Well said. You wouldn't sell at 20 anyway, waiting for the binary event or bust, so what do you care what happens in the interim?
True, Dawson. The market is very thin in ADXS. No real volume of shares available, just the small, churning volume of the robotraders. No wonder there is little accumulation. If they tried to buy 100k shares in "real" trading volume the stock skyrockets. When the real investors aren't buying, the robos take it down on nothing. That's the loop we are caught in. Thin market, all daytraders, swing traders and robots.
No, FBG, all of ADXS's peers got taken down several multiples of the XBI. Not just ADXS. Check out XIOP and ADRO, for example.
Lots of HFT churning today in almost all small bios. Collusion central.
That's true, Blue. But well before we even get the first FDA approval we will be bought out anyway. The "approvable" interim P3 data will be enough. Or EU approval, or even the likelihood of it.
Well ADXS vaccines are certainly biosimilar to each other. The indications are components of a platform technology. But I believe "biosimilar" in this FDA context refers to biosimilarity to previously approved molecules, and ADXS has none of those yet. Not sure what the upshot is, but Blue's hypothesis seems correct. Essentially expedited consideration/approval for additional ADXS indications under the same platform as an approved vaccine. If so, we still gotta break the ice first.
Ouch. That hurt my brain.
We defied the sector weakness earlier today, and then it broke. But people were initially absorbing the selling.
Mpre, keep in mind that there is a federal statute that affirmatively prevents the Feds from negotiating drug prices with pharmas. So even if Trump wants to do it he would need the GOP Congress to go along with it by amending the statute. I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.
Oh, sure. lol. Dan reminds me of Gandhi. Or maybe Mother Teresa.