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weird = manipulation (bringing it back down)
Of course not; that would be absurd. However, if a company is about to release material information, and they've recently been subpoenaed, it might behoove them to consult with the SEC before doing so at the AAIC...at least its attorney should.
Don't get me wrong, I'm hoping for good data, but it seems some people don't believe it will require SEC consideration to invoke the AAIC'S SEC clause. It would seem that with the recent SEC subpoena, AVXL will be sure to consult with the SEC before releasing any data that could be considered material.
If that's the case, then the data might not be that great.
It seemed to me the argument on material information had to do with the expediency in which it is released. However, this situation has more to do with whether the 12-wk data needs to be PR'd prior to or at the same time as the AAIC presentation.
Seems there are many investors & traders who are waiting for this particular data in order to make buy/sell decisions, if so, then that would seem to be "material" in the eyes of the SEC. IMO
...from the extrapolation of the data, I believe.
You must not have read this...
SEC-Related Issues
If a publicly traded company is advised that it is legally required to disclose certain data or other information from a confidential AAIC abstract in advance of the AAIC news embargo to satisfy requirements of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or a corresponding regulatory body in a country where the company’s stock is traded (collectively, “SEC”), that company must submit to AAIC, in advance of the SEC-required disclosure:
•Written notification of the time, manner and recipients of the company’s release; and
•A letter signed by the company’s legal counsel, advising that (a) public disclosure of the information is necessary for the company to comply with applicable securities laws, and (b) the information disclosed is the minimum necessary for such compliance.
If this is done, the abstract will not be automatically rejected or removed from AAIC on the basis of the SEC-required release of data or other information, though the situation is still subject to AAIC review. At a minimum, AAIC may in its discretion change the position of the abstract in AAIC, e.g., from oral presentation to the poster. The abstract will most likely be ineligible for the AAIC news program.
The company may issue a news release at the time of SEC-required disclosure. The AAIC abstract itself may not be released publicly by the company or lead author. Mention may be made that full details will be presented at AAIC. AAIC would prefer that the news release:
•Summarize study data cited in the abstract in a qualitative rather than quantitative manner.
•Avoid interpretations about the implications of the data for practice.
As an example, a statement that a study “met its primary endpoint of improving cognition” is qualitative, while “ADAS-Cog scores remained stable for 18 months in the treated group” would be considered quantitative. A quote such as “We are encouraged by these promising results” would not be viewed as interpretive, while a quote such as “These findings support [drug] as first-line therapy in mild to moderate Alzheimer’s” would be seen as an interpretation of the data.
According to AAIC rules, a company can PR qualitative news, but are advised to use the conference to present quantitative news/data. Therefore, Anavex could issue a qualitative PR regarding the PK/PD results and any other related info, ahead of the conference, and they would be in compliance.
True, if you have control over or knowledge of where the price is going, which we have neither.
No one knows where the price will be tomorrow or even in the next minute. All we believe is that it will be higher sometime in the future. Being able to buy sub $5 is a gift I believe, made possible by the manipulators. One will buy when they feel comfortable; it's educated guesswork.
Of course there is a numeric difference. I think you're missing my point... which is don't sweat the pennies.
Whether you buy at $4.06 or $5.06, it won't make any difference in a year from now when they get BTD and the price exceeds $100!
from another board...
SOL failed twice. They keep changing the endpoints and keep making the patients earlier in the disease hoping for some improvement. In the latest P3 trial, there was no difference between SOL and placebo in Activities of Daily Living functional scale, basic items of the ADCS-ADL, and Clinical Dementia Rating. The two Phase III trials were EXPEDITION 1 and EXPEDITION 2. EXPEDITION 1 didn't meet the predefined assessments. Lilly changed the predefined study goal in EXPEDITION 2, but EXPEDITION 2 didn't meet that goal either.
An ex-FDA official told the Financial Times that solanezumab "does not have a snowball’s chance in a very hot place" of getting conditional approval. To the FDA, missing the primary endpoint in a Phase III trial is "fatal" (from Financial Times)
Thanks for the link. Yes, I would agree. Though a little disappointing that the clip wasn't all Anavex, it did put 2-73 in a little better light given this stage of trials.
Don't worry, Grandpa, that's the Alzheimer's that you're peeing out! :)
Evidently, the TauRx (LMTX) P3 trial is not producing BTD type results or it would have likely been halted and approved after 6 months. Their 1st generation drug (Rember) was shown to only slow the progression of the disease (80%)...good, but not great. There were also unpleasant side effects, including nausea and diarrhea...and it also turns one's urine blue (yikes!). LMTX (their 2nd gen drug) was designed to mitigate the side effects, but its efficacy will likely show similar results.
P3 trial of LMTX to be completed in Q3.
From all indications thus far, it seems the results of 2-73 are much better.
IP_man, thanks for the links! Upon further search for TauRX's P3 Trial Results, I found the below...
"Among the many players trying to develop a drug to treat Alzheimer’s disease is a little-known company called TauRx Pharmaceuticals Ltd. based in Singapore and co-founded by Claude Wischik, a researcher at the University of Aberdeen in Scotland. Taking a slightly different approach than most other companies, TauRx hopes to present trial data on its experimental drug, LMTX, as early as July."
I wonder if the recent results of 2-73, if better than LMTX, will have an impact on LMTX's FDA approval.
Would like to know what percentage of shorts are actually hedges (i.e. insurance) against long positions vs. naked shorting.
The wash-trading computers must be down for maintenance. LOL!
Again, more speculation... No one can know for sure unless they have attended this particular conference before.
Yes, this is all speculation...but if the data is as good as we're expecting, then I would be very surprised if Anavex does not get a podium presentation.
A poster is not a presentation, per se. MacFarlane will be supporting the poster display and answer any questions for those stopping by the exhibit. This is will be separate from a late-breaking presentation that many believe Anavex will apply for and PR later this month.
I was commenting on the likeliness that Anavex will PR their attendance at AAIC later this month, which will end up being a late-breaking presentation. The poster is an exhibit supported by Dr. MacFarlane. Two separate things.
If this isn't a computerized takedown, then nothing is...
Just look how the algo took the price from 4.80 to 4.00, on low volume, in an almost perfect line. No, this stock isn't manipulated one bit! Somebody call the SEC! LOL!
Most likely...
Not a chance...
Much obliged... it's satisfying to identify and be among fellow patriots who have done their homework, understand and believe in the science, have faith in Dr M and company and are in it for the long haul. My position is, if Missling isn't selling then neither am I.
Ha. Now why would one report pre-split shares when we've been split since October? You're a funny one.
Yeah, it only makes my total shares 230k. Is that enough?
Just don't be out of the stock, son.
Because it's being manipulated on low volume. Why would anyone sell down here? That would be lunacy, unless you're shorting hoping it goes lower. But that would be a low-reward, high-risk bet at this level. Best to buy here and hold on through the upcoming news: data, partnership, etc.
Yep... and we'll soon be correct!
Certainly is! I added 15k more EOD. This HAS to be the last time we visit these levels!
I certainly hope you're right, but the data will have to be GREAT to generate solid follow-through demand to counter the manipulation attempts.
Almost certain to come at AAIC. My only concern is that because it's expected, after such a long wait, it might not boost the PPS as much as if it came in April...and the boost may be short lived (i.e. no follow through demand). The real boost won't come until some surprise news is announced, i.e., partner, government grant, etc.
Seems to me that MacFarlane will exhibit at the poster session and that Anavex will present the late-breaking data, tba.
If this is just a poster, then I would expect Anavex to eventually submit for "late breaking" news.
Glad that you're among the longs and believers. However, I wouldn't confuse the "general market" with the manipulators. Micro caps are manipulated all of the time. I'm sure you know this.
The presentation was done at a time when there was believed to be a synergistic effect between donepezil and 2-73 by Anavex as well. More recently, Dr M has reported that 2-73 works as effectively without donepezil as with. Which is great news, as many patients experience adverse side effects with donepezil.
Two potentially positive stimuli remain for this stock this month: Rett’s conference and PR for AVXL's participation as late-breaking entry for AAIC. We can only hope that the manipulation will mitigate after the latter.
Because you're a typical long, as most of us... you're expecting it to go higher and you're afraid that if you sell you will miss out.
Being this close to news, it's best to stay long.