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I think the most we can expect is that Ponatinib enrollment is ahead of schedule....and Merck will begin Endo phase 3.. That would be a home run..
DewDiligence, I agree.. 2da, just let Harvey run the business..if you can hold on, you will be rewarded..
What it is incredible is MNKD, which has nothing, STILL has a market cap of $500 million, and here Ariad sits, with a robust pipline, has only a market cap of $800 million. I expect both market caps are currently not correct and will diverge soon..
I like it... Rida gets front billing in Ariad's PR this morning:
ARIAD's vision is to transform the lives of cancer patients with breakthrough
medicines. The Company's mission is to discover, develop and commercialize
small-molecule drugs to treat cancer in patients with the greatest and most
urgent unmet medical need -- aggressive cancers where current therapies are
inadequate. ARIAD's lead product candidate, ridaforolimus, is an investigational
mTOR inhibitor being developed by Merck that has successfully completed a Phase
3 clinical trial in patients with soft-tissue and bone sarcomas and is being
studied in multiple cancer indications. ARIAD's second internally discovered
product candidate, ponatinib, is an investigational pan-BCR-ABL inhibitor in a
pivotal Phase 2 clinical trial in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia and Ph+
acute lymphoblastic leukemia.
What matters is you create compounds that work to inhibit the growth of cancers, especially cancers that have generated mutant complexities, obtain FDA approval on those compounds, and yes then, obtain patents on those drugs for x number of years.. That's the best way of creating sharholder value, and helping a whole lot of patients..
Patent on a process has not been one of Ariad's strong suits..
"The inhibitory mechanism exemplified by ponatinib may have broad relevance to designing inhibitors against other kinases with mutated gatekeeper residues."
Simply.. WOW!!
You know, if Mr. Market could connect the dots, Ariad would be at $10 per share.. Take this article on PFE's ALK drug. This is the same target that Ariad is going after with their '113. Difference is Ariad's drug is 10X more potent... Inefficient market theory??.. They just don't get it...
http://pharmastrategyblog.com/2011/02/molecular-subsets-in-lung-cancer.html/
No bounce today............
It's the time of the day that we usually bounce, and rise into the close.. It has been remarkablely repeatable..
Dew, I'm just spreading some cheer.. The discounted true value of Ariad out three years is an unknown at this time..
lax, here is another biotech, same pattern as DNDN, that in reality, will not fill the gap.. Honestly, I find some that use TA follow it way, way too closely..
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=INCY+Basic+Chart&t=5y
Even with Merck's depressed stock price, I still would accept a one-for-one stock buyout..
lax20m, the period of 2007 to 2009 was a once-in-a-generation period for the market..
And, a spot on follow up post from Biomaven:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=59530780
Priced at $34 today, $23 million in trailing revenue, $5 Billion market cap, never filled any 'ole gap:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DNDN&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Now, we just need someone to call into the Merck CC this morninig and ask "with such good results in the Endo trial with Rida that you stopped the trial early, what are your development plans for that indication"?? BTH, what say you??
In Merck's press release today:
Select Business Highlights
•Merck is currently launching more than 10 medicines in key markets around the world.
•The company continues to make progress in its pipeline, including:
- Boceprevir, an investigational oral hepatitis C virus (HCV) protease inhibitor, was granted Priority Review status by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and accelerated assessment status by the European Union.
- The FDA accepted a new drug application for an investigational extended-release formulation of JANUMET (sitagliptin/metformin HCI).
- In the Phase III DEFINE study with Merck's investigational CETP inhibitor, anacetrapib, patients with coronary heart disease or CHD risk equivalents showed no significant differences from placebo in the primary safety measures studied. In addition, at 24 weeks, anacetrapib decreased LDL-C (bad cholesterol) by 40 percent and increased HDL-C (good cholesterol) by 138 percent in patients already treated with a statin and at guideline-recommended LDL-C goal.
- Top-line results for Phase III SUCCEED trial of ridaforolimus showed it met the primary endpoint in patients with metastatic soft-tissue or bone sarcomas
This sums up big pharma, and our partner Merck real well:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/pfizer-merger-merck-merger-m2526a-stock/2/2/2011/id/32576?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo
Blackrock now owns 7% of Ariad, 8,973,124 shares
A back to the woodshed day.. If Merck doesn't say anything about Rida tomorrow, I will reduce holdings...
Here comes a rash of Form 4 Ariad option transactions at a price of zero, but an exercise price of $6.38
Sure looks like a base to me
LOX and bagles truly has a new meaning to me now...
Motley Fool is terrible, and here is another:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TST&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
BioTechHedge, I think you answered your question in your first paragraph with your second paragraph..
I find it unconscionable that with the outstanding results of Rida in the endometral trials, that Merck hasn't leveraged off this and said SOMETHING about moving this forward to help patients with this dreaded condition.
Indeed! I sure hope Ariad partners Pona ex US, AND '113 with another biotech, and not big old pharma.. Need a partner with at least a little fire in their belly..
Bellweather, it maybe as simple is that Merck doesn't have a plan quite yet. I think the Endo results are certainly good enough to move to a phase III trial in a VERY difficult cancer to treat.. What an opportunity for them to have a first mover advantage... it just takes time
They probably just don't have all their ducks aligned in order yet.. However, time is ah' wasting..
Sure would like to see some "official" statements from Merck on what they plan to do with Rida.. Filing plans for the Sarcoma NDA, moving to phase III for endo? Prostate? Lung?
This has been just Ariad's show for some reason..
Adam Feuerstein comments on Ariad.. Maybe someone should email Adam Don's summary on possible catalysts to help him out. No time for me..
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10987614/1/biotech-stock-mailbag-orexigen-therapeutics.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
I'm pleased with the three best-in-class compounds. Harvey never mentioned a fourth candidate.
Well, the outstanding Tim Clackson at Ariad is British, so he maybe able to ring them up for a chat. 4th biologic compound?
I thought this was the Ariad board? Moderator?
Looks like the mo-mo crowd has jumped aboard!
The only knock against the article are the revenue estimates..they are virtually impossible to achieve in the short timeframe he has laid out..