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Obi, your point is what? That ADXS was up more than twice the DOW and IBB? Thanks for noticing that.
Then it sounds to me like ADXS is a much better buy, at a 90% discount.
FBG, then what about all of ADXS's peers having the same tanked share price? Are they all run by crooks? Or is it the small biotech sector weakness and rampant short suppression/algorithm manipulation? You decide. I already have. I see it every day on Level II, right in front of me.
Yet somehow they saved the company, got Adage and many other involved top tutes involved, raised hundreds of millions, forged partnerships with multiple BPs and started cranking out clinical trials with great data, FDA fast track, SPA, etc. What does that say about them? Worth the few percentage points of equity they have? I'll take it any day.
Do you know that he had other potential investors that would have offered a better deal? Maybe he did what had to be done, and it coincided with the need to pass a compensation package. Maybe he didn't. Who knows? Listen, I can see why that would annoy shareholders at the time. But I also can see that it may have been unrealistic to expect him to take over without having a vested interest. He still, after several more grants, owns a fairly small percentage of the company, which is not out line with industry norms, as Meisha noted and backed up with analysis. Let him have his interest. As long as he delivers, which it appears he's doing, who cares? But what good does it do to constantly bash him, accuse him of tanking his own share price intentionally for personal gain, and attribute an undervalued company to him personally? He's not going anywhere, so our fates are tied with his.
I don't disagree that he wanted to be paid, and maybe he is even a little greedy. However, why would shareholders expect execs from successful biotech companies to come into a tiny company on the verge of insolvency and save it from the dustbin without obtaining any stake in the game? That's just somewhat unrealistic, and it's not how business works. Management has executed the vaccine development very well. The fact that a clinical biotech has to raise money is also a fact of business, and to attribute some sinister motive to it with no evidence other than "he's a snake" may be convenient but that doesn't make it accurate. I'll never understand people who invest in clinical biotechs and then seem surprised that dilution occurs and that the stock gets manipulated (which they attribute to some imagined fundamental cause). Capital raising and stock manipulation are both a given in this space.
No, I wasn't here in 2014, FBG. But as Meisha pointed out, ADXS was in serious trouble at the time and was lucky to get financing at all. What was the other option? Bankruptcy? We'll never know. And I'm not sure what that has to do with a simple private placement at a time when the stock was strong after the Amgen deal.
Could be a patent issue in combination with the long lead time to develop. The BPs know that ADXS and ADRO will get there first, so they will be content to partner with them.
Really? You know that a deal for AXAL won't happen tomorrow? If you notice, most of the immunotherapy clinical biotechs are behaving the same way. The mm's and algos have them all trapped in a tight range. That's because they are short and want to kill any rallies. Watch ZIOP and ADRO daily, and you'll see what I mean.
Same reason as always, Maple. Algorithm manipulation.
Think again, Obi. GOG's cervical P2 trial showed significantly better results than the current SOC, which has $6 billion in annual revenue.
Oh, DOC, not DOJ. lol
Gajj. why would the DOJ require Sellas to purchase ADXS shares? I'm confused.
Ignore. There was no late day "paint." More gibberish from "you know who." The stock closed strong, and rallied toward the close. The robots tried to take it below 9 in the last couple of minutes but it didn't work.
Yes, FBG, that is the claim against Aratana. However, there is a big difference between missing on a clinical timeline (in biotech it is almost a given) and intentionally misrepresenting a timeline. I'm sure therein lies the rub here.
Can think of no reason that a lawsuit about alleged misrepresentation of a clinical timeline would affect AT-104's approval.
When is the 10Q coming out?
Tell the warrant holders that when ADXS signs a huge deal on AXAL and gets early EU approval, and thus they make 40% more profit on their investment. Your employer is really looking to get its hands on warrants, huh?
Selling the warrants is a taxable event. You would have to pay capital gains.
Exercising warrants is not a taxable event. It only results in a gain or loss for those who received them free, i.e. Employees.
"Not being able to afford the stock" is yet another illogical comment. The minimum investment is currently $8.50. Take whatever amount you want to invest and divide by that number. Thus, you can afford it. Of course, your dollar-amount investment will get you 40% fewer shares than warrants. Which is the point.
I understand how warrants work, Obi. You seem to be confused in that you ignore the leverage warrants provide. Obviously one would not buy warrants if you know you are going to exercise them, because if so there is no reason to pay the premium. However, if you believe the stock will be much higher before expiration, and you're right, you will make alot more money with warrants. The ability to exercise is there, but it is not necessarily the primary objective. The same logic of buying call options. The warrant premium is a reflection of supply and demand. Many shorts short the stock and buy the warrants as a typical strategy. Except they can't really get their hands on any in this case. And the mm's have very few in inventory, and need them also. So if you think the premium is high (which it really is not), then the likely reason is that the mm's don't have many to sell (low supply).
Cash as of 10/31 was $159 million.
Supply and demand and Black-Scholes. Very short supply. Most of us paid a lot lower premium back in the day. And the leverage even with the premium is still worth it. I'll hold, thanks. And if I can get them for a $1.25 premium I'll buy more. People should bid in the middle of the spread, which the mm's will often take.
Because warrant holders don't want to sell. They want to use their time premium to take advantage of the leverage, which is why they bought them in the first place. Worse comes to worst and the buyout doesn't come before expiration you just exercise them.
You got it, Bill. The warrants are much less volatile than the stock. On a big stock move sometimes the warrants barely budge.
The shorts and mm's would like to get their hands on the warrants, which are largely retail held., because retail bought alot of them in 2013-2014 when they were very cheap. The shorts often use warrants as a hedge. They can exercise and return the borrowed shares. It probably annoys them that retail will not give them up.
The original SEC filing says 5 years from issuance, which was 10/16/13. There are several different issues of warrants.
An interesting tidbit on the warrants is that as of 10/31/16 only 3.1 million remain outstanding. That means that over 1 million have already been exercised. Very low float, hence the lack of supply and low liquidity. I believe retail owns a large percentage of them, considering that I know people who collectively own roughly 10%. That includes some of the people here.
More like 20 months, not 16.
Lol. A guy died of cervical cancer? Caitlin Jenner?
Very impressive GOG results, CATT.
Sounds like the only possibility, Catt. ADXS didn't get a late-breaking time slot for nothing.
I'm confused, Catt. Didn't they stop Phase II when the hold kicked in?
The price was languishing when the Amgen news came out. It apparently did not leak, which is borderline amazing these days.
I'm still trying to figure out what new info ADXS can possibly report related to the GOG Phase II trials. It seems to me it was all reported already.
When you convert one warrant you get one share for $5 and it's worth whatever the market price is.
Smasse, your broker will handle exercising your warrants. You can theoretically do it yourself directly with ADXS but it's a pain in the neck.
You can exercise the warrants whenever you want prior to 10/31/18.
Yes, people lose track of the fact that nearly all of ADXS's peers are having their stock manipulated as well, and all are down a comparable percentage from their highs in the biotech rally. ADRO is well below its IPO price. If FBG owned ADRO he would be saying that its investors are all underwater. lol. And he'd be correct.