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Attaboy, Batermere. Impressive bet!
Ah, gotcha Beaty.
Are you making this up? You have no way of knowing the financial terms of the Amgen deal, which is subject to a CTO. Unless you are claiming to have inside information.
Folks, if we see an EU deal with a BP soon, especially in light of the impending submission for EU approval, we are going to see some fireworks. I would not want to be short right now.
Well, Dan is an insider and he buys stock every month. Apparently the author missed that.
I guess this explains why ADXS seemed to be in such a rush to get the manufacturing facility going.
Thanks, Doc. I will take early EMA approval being a reasonable possibility any day.
I doubt it, Blue. Dan will sell the company when the time comes. He wants his "ImClone" payday.
Now let's follow up on this EMA news with a big, fat EU marketing and distribution deal.
Hovacre, based on your knowledge of such matters, can you assess the chances of getting preliminary approval by the EMA?
Highly unlikely that they issue shares at this price. Any new shares will likely be part of a licensing deal with up front cash and milestones.
I figured as much. The way they overvalue management options is a bit misleading also.
I don't believe management receives such salaries. Where did you get this info? You are including options?
Bold bet, Cyber. Good luck!
Working capital has to come from somewhere, FBG. We have retained, thus far, the vast majority of the back-end equity in our indications. So that is the positive tradeoff. Now let's see a big AXAL EU deal with front end money and maybe a deal on a combo indication or two. Throw in future milestones from Amgen and the healthy current cash position and we are pretty solid.
An obvious share grab today. They know it won't last, and you can tell by the high warrant premium.
Hovacre, your comments are refreshing and I agree with them completely. Emotion and borderline hysteria has taken over here. The manipulators are really pushing their buttons at this point. I also appreciated the analyses you published a while back regarding ADXS's science, in various forums. You clearly have significant biotech analysis experience.
Patience. We all suspect that a big EU deal for AXAL is coming. Plus submission of the EU application in just a few months. Potential licensing deals on one of the combo programs (head and neck and prostate) with Merck or AZ. Probable Aratana approval, finally. Prostate data will--if the trend continued--be impressive. How about a Phase 1 for NEO? Don't get caught up in the short term pps. Eye on the prize.
What rock star? Al Yankovic? Dan has a bunch of underwater options and a bunch of shares he bought himself, most of which are also negative. And RSUs that amount to what? 1% of the company?
Hooper, what if the P3 trial results were to simply match the SOC 12-month survival with a much better safety profile? Approvable?
Beaty, what's the P3 success rate with SPA?
Trader, it simply means the shelf registration is now approved.
True, Meisha. However, I would hazard to guess that the optimal dosing in PIII will show in excess of 50% 12-month. Which, in addition to the superior safety profile over Avastin, would be a 67%+ improvement over the SOC.
Amazingly, you still don't understand the difference between a share registration statement and an offering. It's only been explained a dozen times.
Meisha, I assume you are aware that in the GOG PII those patients who received more doses (I believe it was three) actually had a 12-month survival rate over 50%?
BP's do not short clinical biotechs to try to prevent them from getting to market. Talk about a class action lawsuit for using corporate assets for an impermissible purpose, not to mention it would be an antitrust violation. There is no way to do it without a paper trail. In addition, it doesn't make sense to try to "stop" a company like ADXS, which will always have access to capital as long as the science isn't proven to have no merit. And if that were to happen, the BPs' would have nothing to worry about anyway.
Bourbon, I think you are mistaking Phil Gross and the Fidelity people as novices who don't understand the game. They know exactly what is going on with the share price, and they don't care. Why? Because they don't invest in risky clinical biotechs unless they anticipate a BIG payday. A BIG payday comes with some type of regulatory approval, home run interim P3 data, or a buyout. Since they are waiting for one of those, what do they care what happens in the interim? They know far more about all of this than you or me, or anyone else here, and they understand both the clinical biotech timeline and the manipulation that occurs along that timeline.
No, FBG. The share price is a measurement of shareholder value in an efficient market. This is the opposite of an efficient market. A Picasso purchased at a garage sale for $10 is still a Picasso.
Then either your original long thesis was wrong or you should be buying more because the stock is undervalued.
Shareholder value has been created. A lot of it. The share price doesn't have to reflect it--in the short term--to make the value real.
Omg, an amendment to a shelf registration that has been in existence for years. The sky is falling! Dan is secretly giving away free shares to Kim Jong Un, who will trade for Dan in an offshore account! We are screwed! Or (back to reality) Dan is about to announce a big deal with Astra with a large upfront payment and milestones worth up to $1 billion, in addition to a relatively small equity investment. Which Astra probably wants in the event that they buy the whole company at some point.
The only people questioning the science--which questioning completely lacks specifics and reasoning--are the bashers and the few longs who are intent on finding an imaginary reason for a manipulated share price.
Trader, you still seem to be confusing a "shelf" registration with a specific offering. You can't state the "timing" of an offering that doesn't exist.
It's not an offering. It's an amendment to the registration of shares with the SEC so that ADXS would be authorized to offer shares.
Exactly. For example, we have the only phase 3 for cervical cancer. And all of the checkpoint inhibitor companies are looking to partner with us. And CAR-T is having major safety problems and doesn't work on tumors anyway. People keep repeating this myth that ADXS is being left behind. They have it backwards.
Oh, yesterday was OpEx? That explains the 40k share trade right there.
Possibly just a MOC order. But possibly pre-arranged also.
Any equity aspect of a deal is unimportant. The important aspects will be a big chunk of money upfront and a commitment by a major pharma for commercialization of ADXS's most imminent indication.
We agree, FBG. I misunderstood you. Yep, I believe we will see a major EU deal for AXAL with a large upfront payment, milestones, and a relatively-small equity investment at 8.50. The price is probably pre-negotiated and, of course, they bring the stock to the pre-agreed price ahead of the deal. I bet this will happen Monday. The closing price at exactly 8.50 seems too precise to be a coincidence.
Must be a mistake.