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EU deal for AXAL is next.
Up 4.12% on 1.8 million shares on a biotech "down" day is not "barely closing green," Obi.
Hd, I have some shares in a company, Corcept, that is in trials for triple negative breast cancer. They are taking a hormonal approach to it. Looks pretty promising thus far. Which is not to say that ADXS shouldn't go after it.
They can always suppress if they really want to. The question is, are they getting anything out of it at this point? Not much, if anything. What is it costing them?
Is today's news really that unexpected? I mean anyone who's been paying attention knows it was just a matter of when. Aside from providing a little pr and a notice to the market of the amazing stuff we have going on, this is not the holy grail. Although the speed and efficiency in getting the IND is also a signal that these guys mean business.
Simple. The short machine is falling over itself trying to prevent a close above the 200-day moving average.
Blue, I'm sure there was also shorting back in the dark days of the reverse split era. But the current batch of shorts is probably not the same positions. The current short campaign appears to have begun in earnest in mid-2015 shortly before the FDA hold. That is all that I meant.
Gotcha, Donja. Good point. It really is a remarkable story thus far. The fact that a company that got off to such a dubious start turned out to have amazing science and has progressed to this point is definitely an anomaly.
Basically the same as FDA accelerated approval/compassionate use?
Donja, do you mean that the shorting started back in ''14? If so I didn't realize that.
The manipulation of ADXS is one for the books. Rarely do you see such a disconnect between a share price and the progress of a company. This would not have continued for so long and to such an extent if not for the coincidental timing of both the baseless FDA hold and the ensuing biotech meltdown. But I am fairly convinced that they are now substantially trapped.
Exactly. The big fish love to have you buy during their "pump" phase, hold your shares all through the lean times, then finally get frustrated and sell (or try to trade down), so they can steal your shares and trap you out for the real run. They can reverse their short strategy at any time, and it is often when you least expect it. After all, if it was expected and obvious then nobody would fall for it.
I think that's pretty likely. However, the ranges will be higher.
Except that the shorts will not be able to find the shares they need in the low/mid teens either. Sure, they will get some short term profit takers but the core longs aren't going anywhere, and that's the bulk of the shares.
Yes, I remember that also. The director of the EU advisory board that issues recommendations to the "approval" board (I forget what it's called) was quoted as giving high praise to AXAL. I also recall someone posting the advisory board's status notes indicating that ADXS had submitted the data, protocols, etc. and that the board did not even request any clarifications or additional information. It read as if the board was satisfied with the initial submission "as is."
It makes no sense to suppress the stock to try to play for a cheap buyout. They are not going to sell the company anywhere near this price. The manipulators are simply those with the large short positions, which likely includes mm's. They are simply hoping to have longs lose patience and start dumping. There are no significant shares available in this range. They probably would have covered already but they can't.
What "surprise" could there be in the earnings report? Unexpected revenue from Amgen deal, thus an earnings beat? James noted this possibility a while ago.
Dew, I assume you mean it's a long shot because of the low "n?" Makes sense. However, the fact that a decision may be rendered so soon would sure make me very nervous if I was short. Talk about a potential disaster.
Okay, thanks, Billjay. That'll be fine, filing for EU this year.
Wow. If EU preliminary approval happens this year we'll be seeing bicentennial-type fireworks.
The shorts will unwind, Bill. You know it and I know it. They are basically treading water now, for lack of other options. The market is still very thin. Any "real" trading moves the stock significantly. The only supply of shares is b.s. robot churning back and forth at each other. Investors are going nowhere. It's as plain as day.
I think you know my opinion of the lack of a fundamental reason for the share price. The private placement in August has nothing to do with it whatsoever. It doesn't even remotely make sense to value a stock well below a placement price. Manipulation, plain and simple. Every day, starting more than a year prior to that deal. But they are losing traction.
The only reason we are trading sideways is that the traders/manipulators are trying very hard to keep the stock below a key technical level (the 200 day moving average), as mentioned by a couple of the traders here.
That would be acceptable to me. lol
Not sure how they could have data in the P3 already.
Obi, your point is what? That ADXS was up more than twice the DOW and IBB? Thanks for noticing that.
Then it sounds to me like ADXS is a much better buy, at a 90% discount.
FBG, then what about all of ADXS's peers having the same tanked share price? Are they all run by crooks? Or is it the small biotech sector weakness and rampant short suppression/algorithm manipulation? You decide. I already have. I see it every day on Level II, right in front of me.
Yet somehow they saved the company, got Adage and many other involved top tutes involved, raised hundreds of millions, forged partnerships with multiple BPs and started cranking out clinical trials with great data, FDA fast track, SPA, etc. What does that say about them? Worth the few percentage points of equity they have? I'll take it any day.
Do you know that he had other potential investors that would have offered a better deal? Maybe he did what had to be done, and it coincided with the need to pass a compensation package. Maybe he didn't. Who knows? Listen, I can see why that would annoy shareholders at the time. But I also can see that it may have been unrealistic to expect him to take over without having a vested interest. He still, after several more grants, owns a fairly small percentage of the company, which is not out line with industry norms, as Meisha noted and backed up with analysis. Let him have his interest. As long as he delivers, which it appears he's doing, who cares? But what good does it do to constantly bash him, accuse him of tanking his own share price intentionally for personal gain, and attribute an undervalued company to him personally? He's not going anywhere, so our fates are tied with his.
I don't disagree that he wanted to be paid, and maybe he is even a little greedy. However, why would shareholders expect execs from successful biotech companies to come into a tiny company on the verge of insolvency and save it from the dustbin without obtaining any stake in the game? That's just somewhat unrealistic, and it's not how business works. Management has executed the vaccine development very well. The fact that a clinical biotech has to raise money is also a fact of business, and to attribute some sinister motive to it with no evidence other than "he's a snake" may be convenient but that doesn't make it accurate. I'll never understand people who invest in clinical biotechs and then seem surprised that dilution occurs and that the stock gets manipulated (which they attribute to some imagined fundamental cause). Capital raising and stock manipulation are both a given in this space.
No, I wasn't here in 2014, FBG. But as Meisha pointed out, ADXS was in serious trouble at the time and was lucky to get financing at all. What was the other option? Bankruptcy? We'll never know. And I'm not sure what that has to do with a simple private placement at a time when the stock was strong after the Amgen deal.
Could be a patent issue in combination with the long lead time to develop. The BPs know that ADXS and ADRO will get there first, so they will be content to partner with them.
Really? You know that a deal for AXAL won't happen tomorrow? If you notice, most of the immunotherapy clinical biotechs are behaving the same way. The mm's and algos have them all trapped in a tight range. That's because they are short and want to kill any rallies. Watch ZIOP and ADRO daily, and you'll see what I mean.
Same reason as always, Maple. Algorithm manipulation.
Think again, Obi. GOG's cervical P2 trial showed significantly better results than the current SOC, which has $6 billion in annual revenue.
Oh, DOC, not DOJ. lol
Gajj. why would the DOJ require Sellas to purchase ADXS shares? I'm confused.
Ignore. There was no late day "paint." More gibberish from "you know who." The stock closed strong, and rallied toward the close. The robots tried to take it below 9 in the last couple of minutes but it didn't work.
Yes, FBG, that is the claim against Aratana. However, there is a big difference between missing on a clinical timeline (in biotech it is almost a given) and intentionally misrepresenting a timeline. I'm sure therein lies the rub here.