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Glad I Sold the Pop yesterday. As always, FNMA Drops shortly thereafter.
Do you think FNMA will make new Lows under $1.90? It feels like the Government has us Average Joes on the ropes
Why the BIG Sell-Off? It seems earnings disappointed.
Was it just people Selling the Pop (Knowing FNMA Always Drops) or was there something in the 10-Q that scared FNMA Commons?
Wrong! Read the full quote that you're quoting. The article says Investors will want to see value created for FNMA Commons. That's a big difference compared to what you wrote.
In exchange, investors will want the standing and rights of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac junior preferred shares to be restored along with their lost dividends. They will also want to see value created for common shareholders.
Can you share a link to where Bove says FNMA Commons will do well?
Bove also says FNMA Commons are likely worthless. Can you speak to this?
These small FNMA Pops get Sold so Quickly. It's amazing that traders are happy with these $0.03-$0.06 gains.
I don't blame them though. They learned a long time ago that Commons can't hold their gains.
Until Commons show some resilience, you have to Sell the Pop because FNMA Always Drops
When do you anticipate the Reverse-Split to occur?
October 9th, 2020 (ER)
December 11th, 2020 (RS)
April 5th, 2021 (FP)
That's great news! File a lawsuit for FNMA so we can all reap the rewards.
Just ask JPS how much they spent on lawsuits so far. $30M+ and still fighting
Hearing 1 FNMAS will equal 13 FNMA Commons in the near future.
These FNMAS shares are like the golden egg. You never know what they might hatch!
An amusing possibility I saw mentioned somewhere was that FHFA could have the OTC just halt trading on FnF shares for a few weeks while the cases are settled and the SPSPAs are amended. Then if they also offer the junior-to-common conversion (with a short deadline) during the halt, the public would likely never realize just how much of a gain the juniors made.
Surprisingly, FNMA hasn't gone up in quite a while. Today's bump didn't even get us back to where we were a month ago.
#NoBuenoAmigos
So if FNMA announces a Reverse Split, we should all sell and wait to buy back lower since you think a R/S would be detrimental to FNMA's price?
I think the decision will be up to the FHFA and Financial Advisors. If they think that's what needs to be done, then I'm sure they'll do it.
Without a R/S, how can we hold the price above $4 for long enough to up-list?
I see a R/S as the only way for FNMA to up-list any time soon since it can't hold its gains.
You're starting to scare me about Reverse Splits. I might need to re-think my 0.1% position in Commons.
Why is a Reverse-Split so scary for FNMA?
A Reverse Split doesn't change anything other than the price and outstanding shares.
If you say FNMA is worth $60 now, then it's worth $600 after a 1:10 Reverse Split.
Why's that malarkey?
It's the uncertainty due to the upcoming Dilution from the Capital Raises.
No one can value FNMA Commons without knowing a final share count (or at least an estimated share count).
The Market learned irrational exuberance doesn't work well for FNMA. It did its homework and now knows that it's better to wait and see rather than own Commons now
Agreed. It'll take a Reverse Split for FNMA to have a Kodak day.
One day we'll wake up and FNMA will be 10-20x its previous close. But it won't be from buying pressure
Aren't those things supposed to be illiquid? How did someone sell $2M without barely moving the price?
And who bought $2M worth in one shot?!
Looks like FNMA meets the prerequisites for up-listing already outside of the share price minimum of $4. But a Reverse Split solves that problem.
https://www.nyse.com/publicdocs/nyse/listing/NYSE_Initial_Listing_Standards_Summary.pdf
Thankfully we're all going to have a lot of clarity in the next 6 months.
Later this year, almost all of the cards will be on the table and we'll hopefully be able to come up with a realistic price target for FNMA Commons.
Until then, it's just a guessing game. Although, $4-6 is the most likely range for Commons considering everything we know now. A lot can change, and that range can go up/down significantly pending those variables.
Receivership
Cram down
Conversion
Sell the pops cause it drops
2.50????
Commons get cancelled
Recap hierarchy
My cousin Arnold
Ackman hedged cause your a loser.
They'll be doing the Capital Raises at sub-$2 on the OTC
I'm sure it'll all be outlined in the prospectus for the re-IPO -- "Companies will up-list within X months of re-IPO."
So much for a Pop before the re-IPO. The FNMA shares will need to be sold at these rock-bottom prices pending Reverse Split.
#It'sComingAmigos
Just be glad you own the Fulcrum (JPS). No fear of Reverse Split, defined minimum up-side assuming FNMA Commons have any value at all, and they are in the driver's seat leading all of the litigation.
I know where to place my bet, and it definitely isn't on the Gamble frequently referred to as FNMA Commons.
Exactly! Bove touts Jr. Preferreds and FNMA panics & claims he's an idiot. Then Bove says something slightly negative about JPS (which doesn't make any sense at all), and Commons spread it like wildfire.
This is the FNMA Common Nonsense issue that resonates so frequently here. It's no surprise most of the Average Joes have Sold the Pop and Converted to Jr. Preferreds.
No Bueno Amigos
That article doesn't sound good for FNMA Commons. Glad I Sold the Pop and bought Jr. Preferreds.
If Plaintiffs are given a juicy Settlement Offer (ie: JPS Conversion to FNMA), I'm sure they would take it in a heartbeat.
Considering the DOJ has spent ~$100M (according to Josh Rosner) defending the NWS, it's safe to assume the Plaintiffs have spent close to that amount as well.
You know what they say about a Bird in the Hand and not looking a Gift Horse in the mouth
There is no future scenario in which Treasury returns $130B and cancels the seniors. The commons will be heavily diluted either by a massive equity raise (as Calabria said) or a senior pref cramdown.
Rosner also says FNMA Commons are worth $3-3.50.
Do you disagree with that?
Let FNMA Fill that Gap at $1.70. Otherwise, people are going to keep Selling the Pop
Would they re-IPO FNMA at $3.00? Reverse Split before the re-IPO is probably the most likely scenario. Maybe 10:1?
That's one of the Collins' Remedies, right?
I wonder if Commons could file a lawsuit that this type of Settlement disproportionately benefits Jr. Preferreds over FNMA Commons.
I imagine Bryndon Fisher's lawyers would take that case in a heartbeat!
As the Portfolio grows, so do Capital Requirements. It's like a double-sided blade, or Catch-22.
It's great news, but also bad as more capital needs to be raised (dilution) to support the Portfolio's growth
FNMA will still be Regulated by the FHFA even after Conservatorship has ended.
And Congress can also force additional mandates on the GSEs since they are Federally Chartered.
The name "Government Sponsored Entity" is given for a reason
The Market values JPS at 4-8x FNMA even considering all of this. There must be something that us Average Joes are missing
JPS are waiting for the Conversion to Commons to come from the GSEs. No one is manually doing it now. That would be very foolish.
Odds are you'll get a much better Conversion Ratio if you wait. The same happened with Citi. And you know what they say about history -- it sure likes to rhyme
I'm wondering if Jr. Preferreds will get an even better Conversion Ratio than Citi Preferreds got. Wouldn't that be a pleasant surprise??
#JPSareFULCRUM
Yep, derivative claims which = benefits companies, which = benefits shareholders each in their own way. So, place your bet! I'm staying with my commons for the derivative win potential, jps has very little to gain derivative wise.