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That's how it usually goes, doesn't it?
Institutions get in early, pump up the price, and then take their life jackets and get out while retail investors buy their shares because they just read about the company in the news or something.
While it does leave a sour taste in the mouth to see the price drop this much knowing that you could've bought in at a lower price if you had waited a bit longer, there's also a very real possibility that the trend reverses any day and buyers are forced into a bidding competition.
The way I see it, it's better to get in too early than too late.
Makes you wonder why anyone would want to sell their shares at prices this cheap.
Surely any bears must eventually run out of shares to sell, right?
Looks like the world's most profitable hedge fund (Renaissance Technologies) has added 21,000 more shares to its position this quarter.
Should be more coming by the end of the week. 3 major shareholders (100k+ shares) have yet to file their 13Fs.
Here's a chart I made that makes the current downtrend in activity a bit easier to see: https://i.imgur.com/PlDLm9K.jpg
The blue line is the daily closing price multiplied by the daily volume, and the black line is just a 50-day moving average.
Hey, we beat a record today.
Since its NASDAQ listing, this stock has never traded as little as it did today.
The previous record was 2,200 shares. Today it looks like only 1,360 shares were traded.
Whatever happens, we'll have a clearer picture two years from now.
NTRP will go bust in a year without additional funding.
AVXL will go bust in about two years without additional funding.
You sure it's $129 million? Their latest 10Q says it's $103,138,911.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1314052/000161577418007805/s111943_10q.htm#a001_v1
Meanwhile, AVXL has an accumulated deficit of $103,138,911.
Accumulated deficit for NTRP so far is at $69,940,349.
Just 102 shares traded after more than 2 hours of market open.
This is ridiculous.
November 14 is the next deadline for filing 13Fs, so we should be seeing an increase in institutional holdings by then.
https://fintel.io/so/us/ntrp
You also have to keep in mind that they currently lack the funds to pursue development in all these other indications.
If a successful AD trial increases the stock price enough, there could be over $77 million flowing into the company through exercised warrants and options the next couple of years.
What's interesting to me is waiting to see if they'll have the guts to wait until next year's announcement before raising more funds, considering how they'll run out of cash next November if nothing changes.
"The Company expects that its existing capital resources will be sufficient to support its projected operating requirements into the beginning of November 2019"
They've made it very clear that they want to announce trial results in 2H 2019, so unless they decide to raise funds before then, we can probably expect an announcement around August or September next year.
Welcome! It's always nice to see more people getting interested in this rather obscure company. If you're interested in learning more, feel free to check out the ibox where you can find all kinds of useful information.
To answer your question: Considering that the last trial showed 15 out of 16 patients improving even from the start, I doubt you would see any sort of decline amongst patients while using this drug.
Now the time frame of 1.5 years for a 30 point SIB improvement is just an estimate I made based on the data we have today, but what we do know for sure is that this is the first drug to show an improvement in patients rather than just a slowing of the decline which almost the entire industry has been focusing on for more than a decade now.
If the next trial manages to repeat the results seen in the last trial, then we can be pretty sure that we've just stumbled upon the world's first AD drug that can actually reverse cognitive decline and bring patients back to normal.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/biotech-companies-trends-immunotherapy-cancer-treatment/
"And there's hope for Alzheimer's treatment, considered the "final frontier" for biotech companies, industry officials say, even though there is some disagreement on what causes the disease and its crippling dementia.
In another panel at the conference, Neurotrope (NTRP) Chief Executive Charles Ryan and others said the Alzheimer's research landscape in 2018 looks a lot like the historical cancer treatment realm, which is migrating from chemotherapy to immunotherapy, CAR-T and other therapies.
The running theory in Alzheimer's disease ties the disease to the buildup of plaque called amyloid in the brain. Biogen (BIIB) and Eisai are the front-runners of that theory.
But Julie Anne Smith, chief executive at privately held E Scape Bio, cast some doubt on that theory. She suggested that amyloid plaques are certainly an important feature of Alzheimer's disease.
"But there is no definitive data showing they're causal," she said.
Smith said biotech companies need to look earlier to fight what may be genetic. Carole Ho, chief medical officer for Denali Therapeutics (DNLI), said treating patients who show symptoms could be too late.
Genetics suggest a number of issues could cause Alzheimer's disease, Ho said. Mutated genes could prompt some patients to overproduce amyloid plaques from birth. Success will require a myriad approaches, she added.
"We can take a tailored approach to this and be successful," Ho said."
Another way to put it is if for example we take a severe AD patient with an SIB score of 70, it would theoretically take about 5 cycles of Bryostatin (about 1.5 years) before that patient only has mild AD.
If you skip to 33:30 in this presentation you can hear them talk more about the SIB scale and how some patients had an entire 8 point improvement:
http://wsw.com/webcast/rrshq28/ntrp/index.aspx?conf=cowen46,http://wsw.com/webcast/rrshq28/ntrp/
Most of the patients were in the 70s, 80s and 90s on a 100 point SIB scale.
However, a full 100 points on the SIB doesn't necessarily mean you are healthy, since the scale is only used to grade moderate-severe patients.
Patients that have improved beyond moderate-severe AD would then be graded based on the MMSE, where the max is 30, and where healthy, normal people have around 24-30 points. Patients in the last trial had an MMSE between 4 and 14.
Here's a chart I made that should make this more easy to visualize:
https://i.imgur.com/s61opUd.jpg
I'm not sure if they have released the actual SIB scores for each patient yet, although we might see that in the upcoming article that's about to be published this year. All we know is by how much each group increased or decreased their average score after the trial.
It could definitely be that some patients got an even better improvement than 6 points.
Definitely. No company has ever managed to increase SIB scores by an entire 6 points. None. These are without a doubt unprecedented results.
Furthermore, the way Dr. Alkon explains it, this isn't just a treatment for Alzheimer's. It's a treatment for ANY kind of brain damage where synapses have been lost.
Like Dr. Alkon himself likes to explain it, it's like "someone took the wiring out of a computer", and Bryostatin puts that wiring in the brain back (or to be more specific, it restores the synapses in the brain that have been lost).
All we need is the next trial to show the same kind of improvement like in the last trial, and then who knows how many millions of patients this drug could treat.
Sure, it's a great company, but giving executives almost 10% of outstanding shares in options?
I don't like it. They should wait until results have been released and the company reaches a higher valuation before they reward themselves like this.
In the upcoming annual meeting this December, I will be voting against re-electing Joshua Silverman to the board of directors, as I believe his questionable past and ties to convicted criminals weakens investor confidence in this company.
I will also vote against the number of shares available for the grant of awards being increased by 600,000 shares, as I believe executives should not be rewarded for failing to find partnerships and secure investor confidence for this company, not to mention how this will punish regular stockholders through dilution.
I hope you all do the same.
Looks good.
"Namely, an effect of bryostatin that occurred only by chance is not likely to be eliminated in only patients who received standard-of-care memantine."
Once people have made up their mind about a stock, it's hard to change how they feel.
People that were left disappointed by the last trial will need a lot more positive news coming from this company before their minds can be changed.
The way I see it, this stock will keep getting treated as a scam until either new results are announced next year, or a partnership is announced before then.
Even then, I'm sure people will refuse to believe it until it's on the news and it's too late to get in.
Right? Even if you're not a believer, these prices are a steal.
This data is certainly very encouraging, however I doubt we can declare victory just yet with only 15 improving patients, even if it's out of 16.
At least now we have a better idea of what to expect next year, where they can hopefully keep up the same success rate in a larger population.
Looks like both Neurotrope and NeuroDiagnostics participated in the BIO Investor Forum a few days ago, although only the latter held a company presentation.
http://bioinvestorforum18.azurewebsites.net/SessionDetail.aspx?id=490783
https://www.bio.org/events/bio-investor-forum/participating-companies
Great news. Too bad they spun off their diagnostics work into a separate private company a few years ago instead of keeping it in Neurotrope.
Agreed. This is not a market you want to be a seller in. Either you buy and hold long-term or you stay away.
Consider also the fact that no matter what happens, it'll still take until the early 2020s before first revenues start coming in and we can start seeing valuations based on facts rather than speculations.
Until then the price will really just be based on market sentiment.
There's a saying that goes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
Sure, this trial is just about repeating what's been done before with greater statistical power, and there's a lot less question marks this time around, but you never know how the market might react anyways.
Rather than wonder about results (which I highly doubt will be much different from the 20 dose non-memantine patients in the last trial), I think the bigger question is what investors will think about it a year from now.
I think one of the reasons for why this stock is so cheap is because most investors still think of the headlines from last year when they hear about Neurotrope. By releasing the top-line data too early they managed to make themselves look like a scam trying to sell nonsignificant results as "positive results". The company being created through a reverse merger by a convicted securities fraudster doesn't exactly instill more confidence either.
The way I look at it, this stock is going to stay cheap until Neurotrope manages to fix its PR problem.
Hopefully the new CEO will figure out how to get people interested in the company again before it needs to raise more funds.
Maybe around 4-6? Last time around the price hit bottom about 5 months before results were released. If the market as a whole keeps going through a downturn that might also put downward pressure on the price.
Either way it's generally not a good idea to try timing the market. If you like the price you buy a little, and if not, then you wait.
Great opportunity to add more.
Scared investors dumping their shares means better prices for buyers.
Oh, my bad. I must've gotten the options mixed up with the warrants.
There's a limit on how many new options can be issued though in their 2017 compensation plan, and 2013 was 5 years ago which means that as we head into 2019, options from 2014 will start expiring worthless.
I think it's also worth mentioning that one of the many benefits of low prices is that options will expire worthless, which is antidilutive.
Hopefully some more warrants will be exercised too, which should keep prices down for now while giving us less downward pressure for when results are released next year.
Anyone setting stop losses on a stock this volatile deserves to have their shares taken away.
It does make wonder though how many more days these prices will last.
If enough people keep buying and holding shares then sooner or later there should be no shares left to sell.
Even market makers won't be able to provide liquidity if enough shares get bought up by long-term holders that refuse to sell before results are announced.
All it takes is 10,000 investors holding 800 shares each to completely dry up the current supply of outstanding shares.
If they can make it another year without raising more funds I will be very impressed.
In that case they could very well keep outstanding shares below 20 million in the future, which is another big plus for the stock price.
Good.
The market has clearly failed to understand that Neurotrope has delivered results like no other company has, and they will need a better PR team to help the market realize that.
Hearing the CEO mention mass media as a potential tool in the last webcast was definitely encouraging to hear.
"Neurotrope to Present at the Ladenburg Thalmann 2018 Healthcare Conference"
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/neurotrope-to-present-at-the-ladenburg-thalmann-2018-healthcare-conference-300720075.html