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Understood, I appreciate your breaking it down to get an idea of your thoughts.
I like the conservative estimate as .53 is about .7% revenue as you said earlier and that is substantially lower than the average 1% number across patent litigation cases. Also, I would assume that cable subscriptions have decreased drastically over the last couple of years due to alternative options such as fire stick, netflix, other streaming options, etc. That being said I would say the 42 million units would be conservative if analyzing the numbers over the life of the patents.
The components behind the final $1.8 billion number seem fairly conservative in my view and that sounds great to me as that is over $1/share in a conservative world.
If you were to give a conservative number on boxes infringing (on average per year) what would you say across all infringers? Obviously some years will have higher number of infringing boxes than others. I have heard the 40 million units number tossed around the board. What are you basing your projections on?
Edit: Also are you including Docsis 3.1 in your unit count.
"nah. this will dump today and they're the smart ones b/c they can get in cheaper."
Any comments as to why this didn't dump today, and instead ended UP 15%. I'm guessing the reply will be tomorrow or something to that nature correct?
Many other costs associated with their retail price per box to the customer. But yes I can agree 100% with you, maybe it's a moot point and I should have never mentioned it.
Anything over $1 sets my goals in play much much much sooner than I thought possible just a couple of years ago.
A couple of years ago I was a stock boy at a grocery store and busing tables at a pizza joint while getting through college. Pretty depressing times. It's funny because sitting at that pizza restaurant late one night pissed off that the last table just sat talking for an hour past closing time, I was brand new in trading and found browsing the hot boards here on ihub where I found UOIP that night. Maybe those people staying late that night had been a blessing in disguise for my life. Time will tell. Regardless I've learned a lot and come a long way since those days - if things work out in our favor here... I have a great story for my grandchildren and a great lesson to teach them that being down in the deepest darkest hole of depression is no reason to give up or give in. Instead, let it serve as one's most gratifying moments in life when they realized their own efforts and aspirations led to their success and achievements. In Teddy Roosevelt's words:
"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."
This thing will all be over one day, and we can all remember the times when we came to the end of our ropes contemplating whether we should sell or not. If it will ever work out in our favor or not. Those left posting here tied a knot in their rope - and that fateful day that is coming will be a time we can all reflect on that tough choice we made to hold this stock with the uncertainties in delisting.
I guess there are solutions, I have just always thought of the effects that such a sizeable award would cause to the defendants and their health as a company and keeping their employees employed. Probably doesn't matter in all reality because this is the court of law where damages are damages cut and dry... I just think this thought process has some effect on the Judge or Jury's decision. We will see.
I feel very confident this case results in $2 billion+ in damages if it's drawn out to a decision. However what do I know. I'm probably a little bias anyways.
What people must realize here is:
This ticker would be trading well over .15 by now had the filings never been delinquent. The filing ability of this company relies in large part on the auditor they employ. Hopefully we get a PR in the near future that they are changing auditors. That being said, there is clear blame on the company and it's officials with the filings as well. They need to fix this issue if they ever want to grow and sustain that growth. The fact the PPS held above .03 is very encouraging as the new low for a launch pad is exponentially higher than the last low. If PCTL can fix this filing problem they will add confidence in the market for their shareholders and any potentially interested investors.
Clearly they have to address the debt they have taken on between 2019 and carrying over debt from previous years. The following 10Qs for Q1 and 2 should be very telling in their ability to take care of this debt and continue to dominate the sector in their market. I think they have made great moves fundamentally as a company leveraging themselves in a big way and expanding as much as possible with the new influx of revenues and profits from the fluid sales due to this pandemic.
As long as they keep dilution to a minimal I think we see this thing blast off over .15 when the Qs are released. I don't see any real reason for them to continue diluting, also we are protected by the CEO having a huge interest in the PPS of this ticker as he owns shares from much higher PPS and that his compensation is mainly based on the PPS growth.
Time for us to find out what is going on over there in the UK and here in the US with our systems in particular. I think PRs are going to start flowing after the release of the 10K this morning as the company is more comfortable releasing forward looking information now that the 10K is taken care of.
Again... your pumping a bankrupt JC Penny company that has been fighting for dear life to keep it's doors open for a decade along with all of the other garbage mall anchor stores that are a thing of the past. Yet here bashing a company that has a real product and selling tons of it at a time like this.
You will be gone with the Q1 and Q2 filings get released... guaranteed.
Looks like CTYX finally starting to get some of the attention it's warranted for months. Let's see if it can sustain the move and continue moving up as the team being assembled in this company is looking very formidable - especially at a time like this for the drug industry. This could be end up being one of the best ROIs I've ever had based on how early I got here.
Seems to still be quite a bit of trash left. Clueless penny traders don't deserve to benefit from the move this is about to see when the Qs start hitting.
Your pumping things like the JC Penny bankruptcy. Please we do not require your "expert" opinion lmao.
Everyone knew the 10K for 2019 would be nothing to get excited about. The rise in revenue was expected and the rise in debt was expected as it was presented. Where PCTL is expected to deliver is in the Q2 10Q as that is where the revenues should be piling up substantially.
Where did you go? I love how this works out.
Odd how that works right?
Seems like everyday someone dumps a million or more into the bid and just drops the price like a rock. Gets pretty frustrating to say the least.
Yes I know what you meant there. Which to me means that the top end of the range ($1.06/unit/month) seems near impossible due to sheer size of the damages that would cause inability for some of these companies to pay. I guess I just have this mechanism in my mind that the Judge and Jury will not penalize a company that employs thousands of people in a way that could be so detrimental it causes bankruptcy and loss of jobs. I know this is law and damages are damages but that's just the way I'm thinking.
I always had my doubts that numbers that high were not very plausible due to defendants ability to pay. So with that in mind, the top end of the range seems to have pretty low possibility.
I think we are going to see a real move here shortly and then hopefully steady sustained growth thereafter. Obviously there is particular news that could just send this to ridiculous PPS targets. The SS is pretty nice for the fundamentals building here.
Not to mention everything going on in the drug industry right now (see KODK with their Defense Act Loan from Trump and the DFC), this could be one of those perfect storm circumstances where this thing found itself coming together at the perfect time.
Hopefully we get some juicy updates in the next 2 weeks.
That’s fine let it sell off. Easy opportunity. Too many people selling into the bid to chase something else then they will be right back here when the filings hit and updates start spitting out.
Agreed and there are just too many unknown variables for us to realize what might be hindering a settlement at this point. But the point you made about the dynamic right now with Chanbond chasing a trial to get in front of a jury and the defendant avoiding a jury trial at all costs shows the writing on the wall for the overall circumstances.
The support we have from the PTAB and being appealed, tried, and true - to me indicates there is 0% chance that the defendant gets off scott free. But I know that 0% probability number scares certain folks so I would just like to go on record saying the likelihood is very very very very very unlikely for the defendant to get out of this one unscathed.
Oh if so my apologies. I cannot remember the poster's alias, for some reason I thought it was said poster.
Thanks for letting me know I will apologize.
So in your expert opinion - we are past a settlement event timeline at this point? Obviously anything can happen. But in all likelihood this should have been settled by now if that settlement was realistically in play?
Wow what a find. All those that were doubting the U.K. deal, and rightfully so as we haven’t heard anything but I think that has a lot to do with filing circumstances. After that 10k finally gets filed they can start releasing the PRs again about material events.
I agree with this. I think it's bittersweet because I think Chanbond lawyers are pretty strategic to avoid appeal attempts, although I think the appeal attempts will come regardless what happens if this spans out through trial like most are expecting - there will be a lot less chance for those appeals to be successful in dragging it out longer.
Delays do not necessarily effect me in a big way as I am nowhere near retirement age and regardless of the windfall I catch from this case I plan to be working for a long while after. I just feel bad for the folks who I've been corresponding with on here for years now that are not getting any younger and it would be nice for them to enjoy the money while they have lively years left.
I agree. I was thinking about this yesterday and had a conversation in person with another shareholder about our timeline. His wife works in the judicial system here in Florida and they have nothing going on in person, just the Judges doing some zoom meetings but very limited and not to expect to be back to work in person until next year. With that in mind, all of the trials scheduled in July and early August will have to take their turn in January when and if things open back up before we have our turn.
How convenient for the defendant that COVID-19 spread at the rate it did after the country opened back up. It’s like a curse.
So your claiming it's even remotely possible that KODK can take on 25% of the market share of the US in the drugs sector within a year? Lol dude seriously come on... Not to mention that even a 2x earnings ratio is considered high in this industry they are throwing themselves into. And of course this all stems from an LOI from the DFC for a LOAN. It's not like they are just acquiring $765 million in cash to their books. Yet your making projections like $15 billion within a year omg!
Lol those who got burned on L*HO should have known the risks. Your comparing a company that was diluting billions of shares within a tight month to 2 month window and claiming a huge merger with a stem cell company to a company called PCTL that has real revenues and operations, is not diluting currently and has only diluted a couple 10s of millions of shares to pay off debt this year...
Seems like a pretty foolish or misleading reference to me.
Technical analysis is poopoo with these types of plays. Robinhood traders got a hold of this... It will bounce up and down like a tennis ball for awhile.
So the CEO buying shares in the company that he is leading makes it a scam. Got it, I'll keep that in mind for next time. Thanks
Well first of all there have been plenty shares bought with their own money... secondly even if they are free shares - this is apart of their compensation... do you think they might care somewhat about the valuation of those shares? LOL
I have seen him on many boards over-pumping things and then disappears soon after. I do not consider that a straight-shooter. Goodluck here but this thing is likely going to close below $30 and huge volatility for the next week or so. Can't see it settling above $30 within the next week. This is a new age of investors with the young clowns with $10s of thousands in margin and no income that are pumping these things through the roof and they always crash and burn.
To me it is pretty illogical of the company to dilute itself and wash out the executives stakes in the company to pay off debt when they can fund their growth with cash flow. I haven't got a whole lot of confidence in this company's leadership when it comes to filing ability (which is a serious problem that is hopefully being addressed after seeing the detriment it is to share price) - however I do find them to be pretty resourceful in expansion and business dealings. Therefore I think they are smart enough to be precise and intelligent in their decision making when it comes to weighing options of expansion and it's direct cost vs the impact that will have on cash flow/position of the company and it's debt. I think they are using this opportunity to expand rapidly which will pay off for all of us in the long run - but there are clear and obvious risks as this is a penny stock and that is what you deal with at these levels.
All in all, if they are smart they are tempering their growth and making sure they have the cash flow to sustain it, otherwise I would hope they are measuring the potential impact from the debt they are taking on for any growth they are not paying for directly and the potential upside from the action taking on that debt. I'm a betting man and I placed a large bet here that has paid off handsomely thus far (luck in some instance with this pandemic), but I continue to bet on the potential of this business and it's dealings.
It does get pretty old watching the price dwindle as time goes on without any updates or any type of idea when we might see filings. However if your a long and know what is coming here then you learn to be okay with the swings up and down knowing your not selling anyhow and the value that is coming here in the near future so it becomes irrelevant even when your account is red or green thousands of dollars on the day.
Amazing this thing keeps getting beaten down and flipped back and forth. Some people will learn their
Lessons getting left behind here soon.
Is it a good possibility at this point to assume we do not see trial dates set until 2021?
Beginning to feel like there is not much time left in this year given the circumstances with the pandemic and then holiday season to even begin thinking about a trial date.
Also what is everyone's thoughts on the "big whig attorney" the defendant's added to their team now that he will surely be available whenever our trial date is finally set. I personally think it gives them a little more leverage in the case of settling at a more favorable number potentially.
You sold awhile ago why does it matter to you?... I guess I’m a couple of weeks we will see more whining about why did you buy again. The emotional roller coaster is comical at this point.
Agreed, I think the valuation range is so broad that it will lead to trial. As Special said - it all depends on Carter. If he is willing to accept something lowball then it will probably get settled up pre-trial. If the defendants are just so low in comparison to Chanbond's valuation experts then it will likely run through trial to get an idea where the valuation might settle up with the Judge and Jury.
It's a risky move but it's all based on the defendants perception of odds in getting a lower range ruled by the Judge and Jury than presented by our valuation expert and what Chanbond is willing to accept pre-trial. Not to mention the small chance of escaping many of the claims with some type of argument their are trying to design (which at this time seems very unlikely anything substantial will be assembled as they have continued with their delay tactics for years).
Specialneeds has made me more optimistic of a settlement to occur - but regardless of that - we still need a trial date set to get the defendant negotiating again.
I felt we were pretty damn close to this trial date and I know we do not have the information whether they were close to an agreement or not but I felt it was pretty certain we would be going to trial without a settlement. Then again there was still time remaining this month and the couple weeks in the beginning of August. You know much better than I do that is for sure. But now all negotiations have probably ceased due to the unknown timeline for a new trial which frustrates all of us of course. It sounded to me like the delayed timeline for a trial really effected the settlement as the Chanbond lawyers claimed a trial date being set for the others would really help in resulting in a "global settlement".
Very interesting thanks for the information. We really do have some professionals on this board in many different areas.
Now we should all be very frightened that “some guy” is making PCTL fluids in his garage and Gary knows but doesn’t care. I can’t wait to see what’s next