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Buy the stock and sell covered calls. You will be printing your own money.
Great buy at this price. I own a ton of it.
Q3 report on Thursday after the close.
My guess is $1.25 per share due to Lumber, 480milBF shipped in Q3.
Truly a beautiful day for SUP for all the right reasons. The cash generation from Q3 was incredible and this will keep rising for a long time. Happy days!
Are there no more investors out there who are bullish on VirTra's and VTSI's prospects? It is remarkable that anyone sells at this sort of price just 6 trading days before the Q3 report.
Right now I have an all or none buy order out there for 80,000 shares at 3.50.
I bet it fills today or tomorrow! Cheers all.
VirTra and VTSI are compelling buys right now due to valuation, forward prospects, and USA environment. I added another 15,000shares on Friday. Just tickled pink to be able to add at this sort of price. The sale ends after hours on Nov 10th with the Q3 release.
Two different funds (COL and SEVF) are also likely building positions in VTSI. Everything is coming together beautifully for an off the charts 2021.
Questions for upcoming Q3 conf call:
1. As of today, how many employees does VirTra have?
2. Do you have a timetable for filling the empty BOD seat?
3. You reported a Q2 order intake number of $5.9mil for Q2, what was that number for Q3?
4. How is a STEP order counted in backlog?
5. Did you receive a written offer to purchase the company on October 16, 2020?
6. Over the last 18 months in both conf calls and inv President you mentioned the possibility of a large military order, what is the status today?
7. Why has VirTra been unable to achieve consistent YOY growth of 30% plus for the last several years?
8. What are some of the main hurdles your sales managers are encountering?
9. Do you post on ihub?
10. Why is ihub listed on VirTra website?
The decisions and lack of actions coming from CEO Ferris are the reasons VirTra and VTSI are stalled and invisible as evidenced by media mentions and lack of marketing/sales efforts.
As Ardly and Teeroy have pointed out, there are legislative, systematic, and attitude changes going on this country that should benefit both the company and stock. However, with a silent CEO there is no way for the average investor to be aware.
The VirTra BOD is also a man down. Why hasn’t a new member been appointed? A good CEO would have a ready list to go to, especially when one is taken by cancer over 2 years per his obit.
The biggest problem is the S3. Seeing that the CEO and his family want to sell their shares gives every new investor pause.
Cheers All...... now back to the woods/water. By the way I asked ihub to cancel my account. Not sure what has taking them so long.
Philly - we are now in post-Wallace time. Riots cuz although police acted legally and correctly they may have also not acted optimally.
This sort of tragedy should bring even more visibility to VirTra.
".....we remain cautiously optimistic that the second half of the year will be stronger than the first.”
Those are the most bullish words ever uttered by the VirTra CEO. My interpretation is ....."We are 100% certain that 2020 revenue will come in above that of 2019."
Clearly some good points in your message but also some that are incorrect. Your observation about VirTra trying to chase/target Joe Blo consumer is really good. It always has bugged me that VirTra tried multiple time to do this because it told me that the CEO was unwilling to do the work necessary to grow the company aggressively with obvious and willing customers. That mentality is still there today and is a main reason why growth is so slow. The CEO does not know how to do the work necessary to grow. He is clueless about how great companies and great people perform. But now I am wandering off topic yet again. so....
Stocks go up and down for many reasons over the short term. And when I say short term I mean 0 to 3 years. Some examples....
VTSI will go to $20 next week if a named fund decides to buy a 20% position.
VTSI goes to $2 next week if me and a couple other shareholders decide to dump all our shares at the same time.
Today there are over 25,000 potential customers in the USA alone for VirTra products including driving sim. The market is essentially untapped. Statistically no one has ever purchased a system.
There are ebbs and flows to growth stocks vs value vs deep value. That too will change as will the way debt is viewed.
The only thing required to make money in almost 99% of all stocks is patience.
What if CEO steps off the curb tomorrow and gets hit by a bus? Does the stock go up or down? Likely goes down then up or up then down. Who knows.
Your example of Boeing is silly for about 317 different reasons.
In general I'm an optimist when it comes to my investments. Otherwise they wouldn't be my investments! I also know that I am pretty good at picking stocks and making money. Yes, I know I post lots of stupid garbage here but that is for other reasons - fun/entertainment/annoytheceo, etc.
I base my optimism on the fact that covid pushed some Q1 and Q2 installs into Q3 and Q4. But more importantly (to me) is that Q2 order intake number of 5.9mil that they reported in the Q2 report. On an annualized basis that is $25mil, especially when intake for Q3 is likely over $8mil due to the bump of gov stuff. I believe orders are ramping due to nation's focus on police training at every level. Also, the covid crap has flooded EVERY municipality with tons of free money. Anyone can get a massive grant for anything. Slush funds abound everywhere. Even tiny towns like ours get millions to buy whatever junk we want, all ya gotta do is fill out a form.
Furthermore, I do not believe covid caused many install delays after July as everyone learned how to behave/protect from covid and the country is wide open again with flights to everywhere and motels, restaurants and everything else wide open. And no matter who wins on Nov 3rd, that is the end of the virus. Even here in Wisconsin. NO ONE cares about covid. Everything wide open including most all schools. They make a big deal of Brown County (Green Bay) being a hotbed but if you look at the numbers (that the gov itself reports and tallys) it is a total non-event. Less than 200 of 1100 avail beds have covid patients. Almost zero deaths and gov reported positives are less than 2% of population. As an aside, I am reasonably certain Trump will win in Wisconsin by about a 53/47 margin. Madison/Milwaukee will not turn out and all other areas will.
Sorry about going off on the political tangent. With respect to stocks, I don't think it matters at all over the next couple years who wins on Nov 3rd.
Your post also brought up a good point regarding a big order. The big military order Ferris has hinted at repeatedly over the last year could come through at any time. Another sort of positive for all involved would be the emergence of an activist investor, perhaps a fund like Starboard. Another crazy thing could also happen, Ferris might decide to actually grow the company in a better faster way.
And to close, if they simply hit Teeroys targets for the next 12 months that would be enough to double the stock which I consider to be worse case!
By the way, every stock price target in my previous post gets doubled if Ferris moves to a CTO role and we get a new CEO.
I really do not understand the vast majority of investors. VTSI is a timely buy, it is a great story stock post-Floyd, it even is undervalued based on PS, and the $5.9mil order intake number for Q2 shows growing momentum. It is also the sort of company that could get taken out.
I know looking backward there are issues. Namely very slow growth. I also understand the governance issues with BOD and CEO.
But it is crystal clear to me that Q3 will be great and Q4 great and 2021 potentially spectacular. Will the stock go up 300% overnight on results? No. But it could easily be $5.5 by Dec 1 and $7 by Feb 1 and $10 to $12 by May 1.
And if a buyout. Right now it would take $15 and by end of 2021 it will take $30.
Got another 0.12%, want 4.9% by Nov 9th.
Put your shares out there for sale!
Why does VirTra keep losing regional sales managers?
Why was Saltz allowed to remain on BOD until he died?
Message boards are evil.........Boo
I know. Most of my posts are utter nonsense but it is fun for me cuz I know a certain CEO reads them. Obvious since his posting has dried up of late. Strike that. Obvious because he has told me he reads the board.
All the nonsense aside, I do think the company will deliver decent results in Q3 Q4 and all of 2021. The stock should react very favorably. With the sort of numbers that Teeroy has guessed at, that should be enough to justify a valuation of PS=2 using EV rather than market cap. So basically the stock should double over the next 4 or 5 months.
Vtsi will be $7.5 before Q3 report.
Why is VirTra’s CEO seemingly content to grow the company so slowly?
VirTra today could be a company with TTM sales of $117million and 2021 guidance of $182million, yet the CEO is content to move at a snails pace toward $30million!!!!
There is no sense of urgency.
No aggressiveness.
Even now look at how the BOD opening is being addressed. No visible activity. No public guidance. No timeframe.
I am beginning to think we have a CEO who may be far too comfortable in his job as judged by what he has delivered over the last number of years.
He is capable of much more.
Another shareholder/investor friendly thing VirTra could do is say how many systems were sold each quarter AND state the amount of revenue and systems in their STEP program.
Unlikely to happen because our CEO is worried about educating the competition. This is the sort of concern or worry that suggests the inexperience and naïveté of our CEO.
Of course publishing the backlog number each quarter is a good start but it needs to be monthly and there needs to be an explanation on how a STEP “sale” is accounted for in backlog.
Based on listening to every available VirTra cc and investor presentation and several conversations with our CEO over the years, my perception of our CEO is that he is afraid to sell product. It seems like in his head a nice +15% year is spectacular while a +40% year would be a terrible thing. And I don’t think his aversion to risk or being a cautious engineer explains it. I personally believe he is very afraid to go for it and do it. He doesn’t seem to grasp what is possible and expected.
Like I’ve said many times, if annual sales were 1billion then 15% growth IS great. But when annual sales are $20million then you darn well better have some +75% and +100% years because it IS easy and IS expected. I keep praying....but it ain’t workin!
Didn’t think I was? Not sure what you mean.
Aaxn up to $105, PS of 11
They have $550million in cash.
Trailing sales are $591million.
Maybe VirTra should buy them!
What ever did happen with all the acquisition talk Coming from CEO Ferris a year or two ago?
Glad you chuckled!
The best news is Teeroy’s guess about 2021. While 24 to 28 isn’t great, it is at least a bit of a jump and enough to command a PS of 2 which would put the stock at 7ish. But I also am assuming significant Eps.
By the way, I think it is correct and fair and accurate to criticize the performance of the CEO and his BOD over the last 1,3,5,10 years.
They might all be wonderful people, great parents, fine colleagues, community members, etc. Criticism here for their performance (as it relates to VTSI) and decisions as CEO and BOD member says nothing about the rest of their lives.
The #1 deliverable of every CEO and BOD member is to make money for the owners of the company. And of course there are other tasks and deliverables but they all point toward this objective. With respect to VTSI (and relative to inflation, time value of money, and frozen dollars), over the last 1,3,5,10 years they have FAILED. That is a simple fact. It also does not mean that over the forward 1,3,5 years it will not be a great success....but it should make one wonder.
Worse yet, current BOD members own so few shares as to be laughable. And worse than that, they have put forth ZERO EFFORT to represent shareholders. That needs to change. Simple obvious statement.
Saltz - First time I met him was in a shareholder meeting several years ago. He was neither personable nor likable in that setting. He did not seek out attendees to chat. He did not answer questions, he was aloof. It is also rather clear that his main efforts with respect to VirTra cost the company market cap, money, and hurt future sales. That being Modern Round, that being refusal to buy shares, that being being invisible. In hindsight MR was a silly worthless endeavor. And yes, early on I liked the idea but guess what, I too was wrong about it. Hindsight is 20/20 and Monday am quarterbacking is easy....but both are necessary.
I do not! I had a year and a half old buck within 12 yards but he came in at a bad angle so couldn’t get a shot (bow/arrow). My “problem” is I have a bird dog that is so good as to be unbelievable. Just a joy to hunt behind. He is a pointer and is incredible so I do more bird hunting (ruffed grouse) than deer hunting. I feel guilty when I am in my tree and my dog is at home. He is 10+ now so only a couple good years left.
Around here, peak rut bow hunting is early November.
Very true and well said Teeroy. .... And I know I am often guilty.
Switching gears a bit, I am curious to know your revenue guesses for Q3/4/1/2.
I’m not asking for numbers for each quarter or even numbers at all. I believe the total of these 4 quarters will be over $30million. And I can’t even imagine how it could be less.....which scares me a bit.
This post Floyd world is in their wheelhouse. They are the best positioned of any company to benefit. Even some sort of qualitative viewpoint would be helpful.
Or if you have a guess for full year 2021 that would be great.
Ferris said No to me in June, 2019 and that is ok.
I just hope he appoints someone that is smart, young, aggressive, and speaks his mind. It must be someone who understands how to sell product.
If it turns out to be some old fart who has gone from company to company over the last 10 years then that would terrible.
Ferris needs to appoint someone who can help grow the company at a fast pace.
All the pieces are in place.
What is lacking is the ability to sell product and a willingness to do so.
I am not saying it is simple or without work but it is straightforward and there are people out there who can do it.
$9.25 million = Revenue in first 6 months of 2017.
$6.1 million = Revenue in first 6 months of 2020.
That shows exactly how stellar our CEO and his BOD have performed.
I looked back 4 years after reading how long Saltz was a member.
Let’s hope and pray CEO Ferris turns this around.
5 shares......that was stupid
5000 shares......that might matter
Appears VirTra now has 93 employees!
That is up 16%.....which begs the question, why isn’t company performance way up?
Gonna be an ugly cc if they don’t deliver over $10mil in revenue for Q3.
Ferris likes to say he wants VirTra to be in the top 5% of all companies.
What he has delivered is a company in the bottom 10% based on revenue and eps growth.
I am dropping my April, 2021 stock price target from $23 to $2.80.
My opinion is that all the potential and favorable macro environment is being squandered by incompetent management.
Hi Schneid...Rainy day here in Central Wis....thus no fishing or hunting for me.
When you see 350,000 shares for sale then that will be me. I added more shares about 10 days ago. I am not here for a 10 or 20% gain. I am here for a 10 bagger. That said, my fear is the CEO is holding the company back because he does not know how to drive or manage growth. That much is obvious from the previous decade. I still have hopes that he and his BOD are willing to accept a big buyout offer. It is coming, just not sure if in 2020 or 2047.
I am excited for the Q3 and Q4 results and 2021 should be a year of the best growth in company history.
One question that must be asked during the Q3 cc is "how many employees does VirTra have?" Lots of new openings on the company website. I want to understand if these openings are real.
I enjoy your posts.
My guess is Teeroy is the one selling.
It is as simple as this Twister:
How can anyone be happy with a stock that has gone from 10cents to 18cents in the last 11 years?
How can anyone be satisfied with a company that has taken 11 years to double sales?
The CEO has had adequate time to demonstrate his abilities and perform. He has not failed. But he has also not done exceedingly well. Overall average at best.
Tell you what, if they weren’t in a blackout period this sort of trading looks exactly like a company’s ATM program selling shares into buying strength. But since there have not been any SEC filings, it cannot be that...or can it?
Switching subjects....I sure wish Ceo Ferris would start posting here using his real name. I have seen it done in the past with 3 other companies. And isn’t it fascinating how poster Twister’s posting has dried up?
Your wish is the stock’s command!
Sure would like to grab the seller by the shoulders and shake him til his head falls off. To sell now ahead of exponential growth that is obvious is bizarre.
Your post is dead on accurate. I’m mid50s and typically helpless around some tech stuff.
Another factor....If I spend $250,000 on something I do want a bit of handholding. So perhaps a tech and training is necessary even if it could be made unnecessary. Perhaps optimum might be a few features or tweaks to cut the technician time by a third or half.
Where did our buyer go today?
Yes that is typical.
I suspect VirTra doesn’t do it that way because of the way VirTtra, their Accounting person, and BOD guy Green view the necessity of a tech to setup/install/train/handhold.
Yet in reality this could all be avoided or minimized with better engineering and more aggressive accounting.
And why haven’t they announced prelim numbers for Q3? Oh that’s right, their actions suggest they are neither investor friendly nor shareholder friendly. Where is the forward guidance?