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Continued Selling Here
The Elephant Is Leaving A Mess
And It's Not Going To Clean It Up
Sold Last Friday
Trade Date: Mar 24, 2017
129,059 Shs Sold At $0.48
Filing Date: Mar 28, 2017
That's 4,093,832 More Shs Diluted
Into The OS & Float Filed In March
Recent Insider Form-4 Selling
Oct 14, 2016 - Mar 24, 2017
17,161,477 Shs by Temasek/Maxwell
Nov 2016 - Mar 2017
76,266 Shs by Management
TOTAL SOLD = 17,237,743
Current March 2017 Outstanding Shs
Guessing Equivalence Of 371,761,960
( Sept 2015 The OS Was 140,374,297 )
ATM (At The Market) Dilution
The ATM could be another 100,000,000 Shs
diluted into the OS and Float at today's pps.
This 1st Qtr Will Be Bad
They won't even be able to stay ahead of their own dilution. And that's on top of all the debt, bad deals, and interest payments. They have no real cash. They are allowed to pay some of the interest on their debt with common shs, adding to the dilution. They won't meet their collaboration requirements, and will be forced to make those bad deals even worse. They will have to do a Reverse-Split.
Heading Down To The 30's
The New Top is still $0.444. And heading down into the 30's. Don't be fooled by little technical bounces on the chart. The Market Makers may take advantage of you that way. They know what's coming ... A 1-for-20 Reverse-Split.
Just My Opinion
SOME DATA ANALYSIS
That Some May Appreciate
FISCAL YEAR 2016 - Completed
213,500 Scripts / 252 Days = 847 Scripts / Day
$18.25M Rev / 213,500 Scpts = $85.48 / Scpt
FISCAL YEAR 2017 - So Far
34,000 Scripts / 39 Days = 872 Scripts / Day
$3.1M Rev / 34,000 Scripts = $91.18 / Script
FISCAL YEAR 2017 - On Track For
There are 250 Working-Days in 2017
That Averages 20.83 W-Days / Mo
On Track For 872 Scripts Per Day
On Track For 18,162 Scripts Per Month
On Track For 217,949 Scripts Per Year
On Track For $1.66M Rev Per Month
On Track For $19.87M Rev Per Year
NOT ON TRACK FOR $22M REV / YR
Then There Is The Issue Of
Net Income/Loss And Profit
As Overhead & Costs Go Up
WHAT IS NEEDED FOR $22M REV
To achieve FY 2017 Revenue of $22M ,
at the current ave of $91.18 per Script ,
they would need to sell 241,281 Scripts.
Need To Ave 965 Scripts Per Day
Need To Ave 20,107 Scripts Per Mo
THIS GOAL IS NOT ACHIEVABLE
THE AUDIT IS NO BIG DEAL
There should be no surprises, one way
or the other, with the Audit. As I said :
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=129924154
It's Silly To Try And Invent Your Own Catalyst
Just My Opinion
Prove It
RE: Post 56596
Calling my analysis a theory, that has been proven wrong, is inaccurate. Just by saying it, does not make it so. I have "Proved" my analysis to be correct. You have not proved it to be wrong. And you have shown nothing to prove yourself right... just words.
So Go Ahead - Prove It
A Good Question
So, when the Audited Financials come out and show that all of the reporting thus far has been adequately accurate, as it is expected to be...
WHY Would The Share Price Increase ???
There Is No Surprise
The Audit should be somewhat accurate. Alan Weisberg, the CFO, is no inexperienced spring chicken. He has had 30 years of accounting experience, and has been the CFO of several publicly traded companies. He is even a partner of an accounting firm, and a professor at a University. I am absolutely sure that everything will be as it was always known to be.
Everything Is As Expected
How could anyone expect anything else, other than what should be expected. Aside from a few typo's and miswordings, the previously given results have always been quite accurate. Enough to not cause any build-up of anything, other than what is to be expected.
There Is No Catalyst To Invent
It's seems to be an obvious tactic to build-up some sort of suspense, as to the Audit's outcome. But there is no suspense, nor will there be any surprise at all. Nothing will change from what is already known about this "Little Operation". Very Simple. Don't know why all the effort is spent to build-up and create a catalyst that just isn't even there.
The March Numbers Should Be Normal
And it's already known what the March Script Count is going to be. It's going to be close to the average number of Scripts per day, which so far this year is 872, times the number of Working-Days, which is 23. And because March and August have the most Working-Days, it will appear like it is a good month. When really, it's just the same as the worst month. So the Scripts should be around 20,056. And using an average so far this year of $91.18 per Script, the Revenue should be close to $1,828,706.08.
So, That Result Would Be Normal And Flat
And If Anything Is Less...
That Would Then Be A Decrease In Growth
This is all based on the accurate information that has already been supplied through the previous Un-Audited Financials, which are super accurate, except for being rounded off to a nearest 'block' number.
For Reference
Aug2016 - 20K Scrpts / 23 W-Dys = 870 / Dy
Feb2017 - 16.5K Scrpts / 19 W-Dys = 868 / Dy
( Great Month Is Same As Poor Month )
Thank You
Check Out This Rule
Temasek use to own 50% of the OS .
That's worse than being an "Insider" !
When the pumpers use to brag about
how many shares Temasek owned ,
I use to say how dangerous it could be
when one entity owned so many shares.
They Just Laughed
Ha Ha Ha
The Question Is
Why rebalance on
such a sure thing ?
Ha Ha Ha
OVER 17 MILLION
Temasek Holdings (Maxwell Ltd)
So far has sold 25% of their shares
in just the past few months = 17M+ Shs.
And that's: "So Far" ... More to come ?
They can't sell them all at once, or it will
collapse the price even more. And defeat
what they can recover in the meantime.
Are collaboration guidelines being met ?
Were agreements written in a clever way ?
Will agreements be altered to favor partners ?
Will the company's bad deals become worse ?
Will this Qtr report reflect missed projections ?
Will they achieve $50M total Qtrly revenues ?
Will they achieve much less, around $11.5M ?
Will the EPS go forward, remain flat, or WTF ?
Stay Tuned
More Selling Again
This is Real
It's Not A Mirage
The Float Is Huge
Sold Last Wednesday
Trade Date: Mar 22, 2017
165,428 Shs Sold At $0.48
Filing Date: Mar 24, 2017
That's 3,964,773 More Shs Diluted
Into The OS & Float Filed In March
Recent Insider Form-4 Selling
Oct 14, 2016 - Mar 22, 2017
17,032,418 Shs by Maxwell
Nov 2016 - Mar 2017
76,266 Shs by Management
TOTAL SOLD = 17,108,684
Current March 2017 Outstanding Shs
Guessing Equivalence Of 371,632,901
( Sept 2015 The OS Was 140,374,297 )
ATM (At The Market) Dilution
The ATM could be another 100,000,000 Shs
diluted into the OS and Float at today's pps.
This 1st Qtr Will Be Bad
They won't even be able to stay ahead of the dilution. And that's on top of all the debt, bad deals, and interest payments. They have no cash. They will pay the interest on debt with common shs, adding to the dilution. They won't meet their collaboration requirements, and will be forced to make those bad deals even worse. They have to do a Reverse-Split.
Heading Down To The 30's
The New Top is still $0.444. And heading down into the 30's. Don't be fooled by little technical bounces on the chart. The Market Makers take advantage of you that way. They are helping insiders Dump and Dilute shs. They know the plan ... A 1-for-20 Reverse-Split.
Just My Opinion
Thanks Dave
Finally !
Somebody Out There Gets It !
Sure, there may be a small +/- degree in accuracy regarding my analysis. But the overall concept is what the oversight may be.
Especially when focusing on "Forward-Looking Statements", and how they can lead you down a path with blinders on.
For Example
To achieve a Yearly Revenue of $22M ,
at the current ave of $91.18 per Script ,
they would have to sell 241,281 Scripts.
That is an "average" of 20,107 per month.
That Goal Is Unachievable
EOM
Inaccurate Definition
There seems to be a difference in the definition and understanding of terms, such as Revenue, and how it applies to Profit and Net Income. Also, relative comparisons of Script Quantities must be fully understood and compared correctly.
The "Deductible Seasons" are always automatically and relatively considered in my analysis. Every single month has it's own "Seasonality"... As well as it's own amount of "Working Days". These all reflect towards a yearly, monthly, and daily average.
Again, all of these variables are considered in my analysis. Also, a percent increase in Revenue can be misleading, if the Net Income does not correspond in relation to any obtained Profit.
In Conclusion
The Script Quantities are not meeting implied expectations. And any increase that may exist, does not reflect towards any increasing Net Income, which remains to be flat... With even an occasional loss, such as reflected in the previous 3rd Quarter.
These Are Some Examples Which Caused
The Share Price To Start "Adjusting" Itself
To equally paraphrase from your own post :
The reality is, the case for this company does not meet their implied implications. Your 'opinion'? That speaks for itself...
EOM
THE LAST GASP
Growth Is Not As Expected
So far this year they are averaging 792 fewer scripts per month, compared to all of last year. And granted, they are averaging 500 more scripts per month "so far" this year, because the volume should always be creeping somewhat higher. But the overall yearly growth is still viewed to be far below implied expectations.
Talking a good game is measuring out to be meaningless. The company is no where near averaging 18K scripts per month, let alone 20K. And let alone, that recent outlandish teaser of 25K !
As the costs of overhead, product, and inflation increases, those cost will be transferred and absorbed thru price increases. Therefore, showing an increase in Revenues. But keeping the Net Income at a flat rate throughout the year! Again, showing slower growth than what was implied. They have talked-the-talk, but have yet to walk-the-walk.
Playing Another Round
If you are a Trader, you picked up at the 50-LBB, and already sold at the top of the Wedge / Triangle. Heading back to the low 17's now... And then lower still, imo.
The players are done for the day. The rest will just watch the slow grind back down. That's all this stock has right now, just Players. There are no Investors.
Sorry !
THE TIME IS NEAR
As The Saying Goes :
" It's No Longer If ... It's When "
The pps is going to break below 0.018 .
The volume has dwindled, because many
of the Traders / Investors are already out.
Now, most will wait for this to hit $0.005 .
SCRIPTS
I have shown how the monthly Script numbers are not a "Real" factor, but more of a game of statistics. And how an implied improvement may not really be an improvement at all. To get a feel for any improvement you must compare the "Daily Average" within a particular month against that of previous months, using the method outlined in my previous posts.
REVENUE
And the main reason Revenues "Appear" to be increasing, is because they are only moving up in relation to Costs. That's why the Net Income has remained in a flat range over the entire year, without any "Real" improvement.
And when the Company PR'd last Nov 21st, and revealed a Net Loss for the 3rd Quarter, that's when the price started tanking. While things might have "Appeared" to be sounding good, the "Real" improvement was just not there. It's was like being attracted to a shinny object... Meanwhile, someone was stealing your wallet. Then you have the latest mishap with Midam Ventures, on top of that.
TRADERS
So... With all of the selling from the $0.05's and $0.04's, and related losses of the $0.03's and $0.02's, I think this Company has to cough-up a little bit more reality than just that of a basic Audit, in order to get Traders / Investors involved again.
Therefore, most will be looking for a lower-risk entry point, before hopping back on the same Bus that rolled over them in the first place. Maybe even wait for a round of Dilution, or a possible Reverse-Split.
Simply Put :
Could Be Time For A Little Payback
Just My Opinion
Meanwhile - Selling Continues
An Elephant Is In The Room
And It's Sitting On Your Face
Sold Last Monday
Trade Date Mar 20, 2017
223,073 Shs Sold At $0.48
Filing Date Mar 22, 2017
That's 3,799,345 More Shs Diluted
Into The OS & Float Filed In March
Recent Insider Form-4 Selling
Oct 14, 2016 - Mar 20, 2017
16,866,990 Shs by Maxwell
Nov 2016 - Mar 2017
76,266 Shs by Management
TOTAL SOLD = 16,943,256
Current March 2017 Outstanding Shs
Guessing The Equivalent Of 371,467,473
Sept 2015 the OS was only 140,374,297
ATM (At The Market) Dilution
The ATM could be another 100,000,000 Shs
diluted into the OS and Float at today's pps.
This 1st Qtr Will Be Bad
They won't even be able to stay ahead of the dilution. And that's on top of all the debt, bad deals, and interest payments. They have no cash. They will pay the interest on debt with common shs, adding to the dilution. They won't meet their collaboration requirements, and will be forced to make those bad deals even worse. They have to do a Reverse-Split.
Heading Down To The 30's
The New Top is still $0.444. And heading down into the 30's. Don't be fooled by little technical bounces on the chart. The Market Makers take advantage of you that way. They are helping insiders Dump and Dilute shs. They know the plan ... A 1-for-20 Reverse-Split.
Just My Opinion
And Don't Forget
The 1-for-20 Reverse-Split
EOM
Those Phony Revenues
2016 Revenue Breakdown
Collaborations And Grants = $50,900,000
From Actual Product = $26,300,000
Total = $77,200,000
Product Revenue
The total for 2016 was $26,300,000 .
In Q4 they said that their Production
Plants were running at full capacity.
That resulted in a maximum of $11.5M
for Product Rev in that Forth Quarter.
( Don't Rely On Any Collaborations )
Already Maxed Out
If the plants are running at full capacity ,
and that generates $11.5M in Rev / Qtr.
That would equal $46M for this 2017 year.
Do you really think they are going to achieve
$200M in Product Rev for Fiscal Year 2017 ?
Because that's what they want you to believe !
They Will Be Lucky To Reach $46M
Now Guess What
This will settle between 20 - 25 cents.
Then there will be a 1-for-20 Reverse-Split.
!!! WAKE UP !!!
JMO
More Serious Selling
Sold Last Thursday
Trade Date Mar 16, 2017
339,908 Shs Sold At $0.49
Filing Date Mar 20, 2017
That's 3,576,272 More Shs Diluted
Into The OS & Float In Just March
Insider Form-4 Selling
Oct 14, 2016 - Mar 16, 2017
16,643,917 Shs by Maxwell
Nov 2016 - Mar 2017
76,266 Shs by Management
TOTAL SOLD = 16,720,183
Current March 2017 Outstanding Shs
Guessing about 371,244,400 or even higher
( Sept 2015 the OS was only 140,374,297 )
ATM (At The Market) Dilution
The ATM could be another 100,000,000 Shs
diluted into the OS and Float at today's pps.
The 1st Qtr Will Be Bad
They won't even be able to stay ahead of the dilution. And that's on top of all the debt, bad deals, and interest payments. They have no cash. They will pay the interest on debt with common shs, adding to the dilution. They won't meet their collaboration requirements, and will be forced to make those bad deals even worse. They have to do a Reverse-Split.
Heading Down To The 30's
The New Top is still $0.444. And heading down into the 30's. Don't be fooled by little technical bounces on the chart. The Market Makers take advantage of you that way. They are helping insiders Dump and Dilute shs. They know the plan ... A 1-for-20 Reverse-Split.
Just My Opinion
This March And 2017 Goals
Total Scripts Est For March
- - - - - - - - 20,056 - - - - - - - -
Gross Revenue Est For March
- - - - - - $1,828,706.08 - - - - - -
Mar & Aug have the most Working Days.
So those "Monthly Totals" should always
be higher in both Scripts and Revenues.
But the best comparison for growth is the
"Ave Scripts Per Day" within each month.
Using Jan & Feb For An Average
34K Scripts Per 39 Working Days
That's 872 Scripts Per Day
$3.1M Gross Rev Per 34K Scripts
That Equals $91.18 Per Script
March Has 23 Working Days
23 W-Days Times 872 Scripts
That's 20,056 Scripts In March
20,056 Scripts Times $91.18 Per Script
That's $1,828,706.08 In Gross Revenues
This calculation is based on Gross Revs
in relation to Scripts. But remember that
Gross Revs also include non-script items.
Unless all items are considered as scripts.
The Goal For This Year - 2017
To get an average 20K Scripts per month
would require about 960 Scripts per day.
Using a "projected" ave of $94.66 per Script ,
that would be a yearly G-Rev of $22,718,400 .
Which would average $1,893,200 per month.
In other words, every month would need to
match the March and August equivalent #'s .
Once they can achieve that goal, then they
can aggressively explore some expansion ,
and possibly up-listing to another market.
Until then, they will have more dilution ,
then followed by a 1-for-15 Reverse-Split.
Growth And Profits
Keep in mind that they are not really doing that
much more in Prescription Fills than a year ago.
The cost of a Robot and Out-Of-State Licenses
may have been questionably premature. These
items could be analogous to "Collecting Dust" .
It may be wiser to focus on more crucial things.
The Gross Revenues are increasing, but that
is most likely due to the relative increases in
costs, from overhead and inflation. Therefore,
the Net Income may be somewhat stagnant.
It will be interesting to get a handle on EPS .
Just My Opinion
THAT WAS REALLY NICE
Today it did not trade for the last 2 hours almost. It was holding "exactly" at the bottom of that little triangle, with the biggest trades of the day at 175K shs. That's just a fascinating coincidence.
Things were looking to close on the bearish side. Then "Lo-n-Behold", it pops up and closes "exactly" at the top of the triangle, in the last few seconds no less, on only a 1000 shs! That could be some real fancy footwork there by them mm's. So who's taking the credit for that one ?
Do you guys ever talk about the technicals ?
Or just bang away at all that typical stuff ?
Who is really trading this anyway? Do actual traders even exist anymore? I think this is programmed to break down below that little triangle support-line soon. I mean, it's just a little one.
But they did manage to barely keep it closing on the bullish-side today. Maybe they wanted the technicals to flash another false bullish-signal again, to attract some more traders before taking it down.
Do You Know What I Mean ?
JMO
The Selling Is Serious
It doesn't matter if the shs being sold were once Restricted, Common, or "Free Shares" as some of you have said. But still, I bet they were pretty close to being free at one time. And it's pretty much all the same. If you want to go through every SEC filing from day one, be my guest.
But regardless... the OS has definitely increased to at least 277,000,000 from 140,000,000. And the Float has increased even more, from 77,000,000 to at least 207,000,000. Then you have to compensate for convertible notes and warrants, that will increase those numbers over time. I believe the equivalent makes the OS close to 370,000,000. The selling from Institutional Holders will at least add a lot more to the Float.
You Pumpers can try to down-play everything as much as you want, but that's just because you have fallen down and can't get up. The writing is on the wall. A 1-for-20 Reverse-Split is coming sooner than you think. And this Q-1 Report is again going to be worse.
Remember... this company isn't about the product or revenue, it's all about how they can juggle their debt and survive through dilution. That's the real business model. I don't think a Farnesene Antifungal Foot Spray is going to save this company any time soon.
And I do modify my posts the best I can, which is a heck of a lot more effort than all of you "Pumpers" put together. But you people just don't know how to read them. Perhaps they may be way over your head.
I Never Take Pumpers Seriously
JMO
THAT LAST HOUR YESTERDAY
- - - E d i t e d - - -
MARKET MAKERS
Was it noticed how the mm's would not trade this during that last hour yesterday? They allowed for a very very light amount of volume to take it up to 0.0215, and then they just froze the trading. It just stopped. Could it have been a paint job ?
It seems they may have wanted to make the technicals "appear" bullish. Like making the candle close above the triangle. The PSAR to stay flipped. And the MACD to barely cross over the Signal Line.... Then they froze the trading. Are they trying to fool me? Are they trying to draw me in ?
IS THAT HOW THEY DO IT
Is this a set-up? Are they manipulating the trading? It smells like a Bull-Trap. This could break way down below 0.018, imo. If they would have let it trade in that last hour, it may have closed in the 0.019's. It looks like they wanted to "Paint-The-Chart", to put traders together. It could be manipulation. Totally Fake.
COMPARING FEB-2016 TO FEB-2017
The PR yesterday talked about how well everything is going, and how they added 4,000 more Smart Medical Alliance Patients since last October. Yet they only filled 16.5K prescriptions. And that is NO Real Improvement compared to a year ago. Not even a relative improvement over a whole year's time !
Then they blamed how flat it was on the shortened month, when compared to leap-year last year. But that is only one working day difference. They should have instead compared the amount of scripts on a "Per Day" bases, and then say they were actually doing more. Even though the total February "Per Month" numbers for this year were actually less than last year's.
Feb2016 - 16,700 Scripts / 20 Working Days = 835 / Day
Feb2017 - 16,500 Scripts / 19 Working Days = 868 / Day
( Virtually No Difference In Progress From A Year Ago )
But don't get too excited. Because a whole year later, they are still doing just about the same quantity in prescription fills. And even though they did 200 less total for this month, they still did more "Per Day". But still, overall... NO REAL IMPROVEMENT !
HOW DO THEY PRESENT THE NUMBERS
Remember when they tried to tell how great the last August numbers were, while achieving 20K prescriptions? Well, August just happens to have the most "Working Days", along with March. That's a total of 23 days. Those are the only two months with the most Working Days. Working Days are used as a constant factor of Monday thru Friday, minus any Federal Holidays.
The other months usually have about 20.5 days on average... so, the monthly "Stats" could be misleading. But, if you look at the amount "Per Day" within each month, it will give a better idea of any REAL improvement.
For Example: Last August they did 870 scripts per day (20K Total). Now compare that "GREAT" month to this year's "POOR" February, with 868 scripts per day (16.5K Total). IT'S THE SAME. NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MONTHS. The "so called" Great Month, is really no different from the "so called" Poor Month! But yet, they play off the "Monthly Total" differences, which may be misleading. Yup !
Aug2016 - 20,000 Scripts / 23 Working Days = 870 / Day
Feb2017 - 16,500 Scripts / 19 Working Days = 868 / Day
( The Great Month Is The Same As The Poor Month )
WHAT ARE THEY DOING
No matter how, all last year they only averaged 848 scripts per day. And so far this year, they are only averaging 872 per day. Only 24 more. That may not justify the cost of a Robotic Dispensing System.
So now, even though the daily numbers have not improved much, they are going to try and set-up for this month of March, with it's BIG 23 Working Days. This month has 23 working days in it, then multiply that by the 872 ave so far: That would equal 20,056 total scripts. Can they do it? And if so, is it really an improvement ?
WOW! That would sound like music to the ears, and give the management something to talk about. Like, how they are zeroing in on that 25K scripts per month. But, anything close to this average daily number DOES NOT show any REAL Improvement. Especially over a WHOLE YEAR'S TIME. And really, this small company should not even think about any expansion at all, until they can "average" 20K scripts per month. Let alone, a wildly optimistic "Forward-Looking Statement Number" of 25K per month.
CART BEFORE THE HORSE
The Robotic Dispensing Machine and State Licenses all turned out to be very premature, and set them back quite a bit, imo. If they would have waited a year or so, to beef-up their small business, they would not have been this deeply involved with the likes of Midam Ventures LLC, and the additional premature dilutive costs of Monarch Bay Securities. This all helped lead to the additional dilutive Securities Purchase Agreement with Chicago Ventures.
WHAT'S REALLY LEFT
Not much really. They traded all their debt for dilution. The only cash they have, is borrowed cash. And the Audit is the only thing left to put any emphasis on. It's the only "Catalyst" left to believe in. But a catalyst just can't be manufactured to fill a void, no matter how much one may want it. An Audit sounds like it could help open up ALL the doors. But it won't... it's not that simple.
This Audit is very easy to do. I mean, the CFO has 30 years of accounting experience, and is a partner in an accounting firm. So I doubt that this "Little Pharmacy Operation" will have any problems with an Audit at all. So what has to be done, is to try and build up some "Suspense" about the Audit itself. Because that's all there is left to do !!!
WHY
Is It Really Any Actual Question At All ,
Why This Always Goes Down On News ?
JMO
DID YOU SEE THAT TODAY
THOSE MARKET MAKERS
Did you notice how the mm's would not trade this during that last hour today? They allowed for a very very light amount of volume to take it up to 0.0215, and then they just froze the trading. It sounds like a paint job.
They wanted to make the technicals appear bullish. They wanted the candle to stay above the triangle. They wanted the PSAR to flip. And they wanted the MACD to barely cross over the Signal Line.... Then they froze it. They wanted too fool you. They want to draw you in. Then they want to screw somebody.
THAT'S HOW THEY DO IT
It's a set-up. Totally manipulated to trap you. Otherwise known as a Bull-Trap. This will break down below 0.018, imo. If they would have let it trade in that last hour, it would have closed in the 0.019's. But they wanted to "Paint-The-Chart", to put you together. Total manipulators. Totally Fake.
COMPARE FEB-2016 TO FEB-2017
The PR today talks about how well everything is going, and how they added 4,000 more Smart Medical Alliance Patients since last October. Yet they only filled 16.5K prescriptions. And that is NO Real Improvement compared to a year ago. Not even a relative improvement over a whole year's time !
Then they blame how flat it was on the shortened month, when compared to leap-year last year. But that is only one working day difference. If they were smart, they would have compared the amount of prescriptions "Per Day", and said how they were doing more. Even though the total February "Per Month" numbers for this year were actually less than last year's.
Feb2016 - 16,700 Scripts / 20 Working Days = 835 / Day
Feb2017 - 16,500 Scripts / 19 Working Days = 868 / Day
But don't get too excited. Because a whole year later, they are still doing just about the same quantity in prescription fills. And even though they did 200 less total for this month, they did more "Per Day". But still, overall... NO REAL IMPROVEMENT !
THIS IS HOW THEY TRICK YOU
Remember when they tried to tell you how great last August was, while achieving 20K prescriptions? Well, August just happens to have the most working days in it, along with March. That's a total of 23 days.
The other months usually have about 20.5 days on average... so, they are going to use those "Stats" to fool you. But, if you look at the amount "Per Day", you get a better idea of any REAL improvement.
For Example: Last August they did 870 scripts per day. And last March they did 809 scripts per day. Now compare those to this "POOR" February of 868 scripts per day. IT'S THE SAME. NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MONTHS. The "so called" Best Month, is no different from the "so called" Worst Month! But yet, they play off the "Monthly Total" differences to trick you. Yup !
WHAT ARE THEY DOING
No matter how you look at it all last year, they only averaged 848 scripts per day. And so far this year, they are only averaging 872 per day. Only 24 more. That hardly justifies the cost of a Robotic Dispensing System.
So now, even though the daily number has not improved much, they are going to try and set you up for this month of March, with The BIG 23 Working Days. This month has 23 working days in it, then multiply that by the 872 ave so far: That equals 20,056 total scripts.
WOW! That may sound like music to your ears, and will give the management something to talk about. Like, how they are zeroing in on that 25K scripts per month. But anything close to this number DOES NOT show any REAL Improvement. Especially over a WHOLE YEAR'S TIME. And really, this small company should not even think about any expansion, until they can "average" 20K scripts per month. Let alone, a wildly optimistic "Forward-Looking Statement Number" of 25K per month.
CART BEFORE THE HORSE
The Robotic Dispensing Machine and State Licenses all turned out to be very premature, and set them back quite a bit, imo. If they would have waited a year or so, to beef-up their small business, they would not have been this deeply involved with the likes of Midam Ventures LLC, and the additional premature dilutive costs of Monarch Bay Securities. This all helped lead to the additional dilutive Securities Purchase Agreement with Chicago Ventures.
WHAT'S REALLY LEFT
Not much really. They traded all their debt for dilution. The only cash they have, is borrowed cash. And the Audit is the only thing left for people to put any emphasis on. It's the only "Catalyst" left to believe in. But you can't create your own catalyst, no matter how much you try. An Audit sounds like it will help open up ALL the doors. But it won't !
This Audit is easy to do. I mean, the CFO has 30 years of accounting experience, and is a partner in an accounting firm. So I doubt that this "Little Operation" will have any problems with an Audit at all. So, what has to be done, and what you are trying to do, is to build up some "Suspense" about the Audit itself. Because it's all you have left !!!
WHY
Do You Really Have To Ask Yourselves
Why This Always Goes Down On News ?
JMO
The Dilution Continues
Sold Last Tuesday
Trade Date Mar 14, 2017
270,374 Shs Sold At $0.46
Filing Date Mar 16, 2017
That's 3,236,364 More Shs Diluted
Into The OS & Float In Just 2 Weeks
Insider Form-4 Dilution
Oct 14, 2016 - Mar 14, 2017
16,304,009 Shs by Maxwell Ltd
Nov 2016 - Mar 2017
76,266 Shs by Management
TOTAL SOLD = 16,380,275
Current March 2017 Outstanding Shs
Guessing about 370,904,492 or even higher
( Sept 2015 the OS was only 140,374,297 )
ATM (At The Market) Dilution
The ATM could be another 100,000,000 Shs
diluted into the OS and Float at today's pps.
This 1st Qtr Will Not Be Good
They won't even be able to stay ahead of the dilution. And that's on top of all the debt, bad deals, and interest payments. They have no cash. They will pay the interest on debt with common shs, adding to the dilution. They won't meet their collaboration requirements, and will be forced to make those bad deals even worse. They have to do a Reverse-Split.
Heading Down To The 30's
The New Top is still $0.444. And heading down into the 30's. Don't be fooled by little technical bounces on the chart. The Market Makers take advantage of you that way. They are helping insiders Dump and Dilute shs. They know the plan ... A 1-for-20 Reverse-Split.
Just My Opinion
Insider Dilution Update
Sold Last Friday
Trade Date Mar 10, 2017
346,429 Shs Sold At $0.50
Filing Date Mar 14, 2017
That's 2,965,990 More Shs Diluted
Into The OS & Float Filed In March
Insider Form-4 Dilution
Oct 14, 2016 - Mar 8, 2017
16,033,635 Shs by Maxwell Ltd
Nov 2016 - Jan 2017
76,067 Shs by Management
TOTAL SOLD = 16,109,702
Current March 2017 Outstanding Shs
Guessing about 370,604,733 or even higher
( Sept 2015 the OS was only 140,374,297 )
ATM (At The Market) Dilution
The ATM could be another 100,000,000 Shs
diluted into the OS and Float at today's pps.
This 1st Qtr Will Be Another Bad One
They won't even be able to stay ahead of the dilution. And that's on top of all the debt, bad deals, and interest payments. They have no cash. They will pay the interest on debt with common shs, adding to the dilution. They won't meet their collaboration requirements, and will be forced to make those bad deals even worse. They have to do a Reverse-Split.
Heading Down To The 30's
The New Top is still $0.444. And heading down into the 30's. Don't be fooled by little technical bounces on the chart. The Market Makers take advantage of you that way. They are helping insiders Dump and Dilute shs. They know the plan ... A 1-for-20 Reverse-Split.
Just My Opinion
That's What She Said
;-- )
You Need To Be Concerned
The MM's are going to hold this until
the required amount of shs are sold.
Then the vacuum will suck it down under.
To them, it's just another day in paradise.
JMO
How Many Are Trapped
How many of you were fooled yesterday by
the technicals? Well... now you're trapped.
The OS and Float is getting pretty high now.
And more dilution is happening every day.
I wonder how much more dilution this week.
Plus, interest payments on debt will be made
through dilution. Sometimes you actually need
to do some research before asking questions.
They have absolutely no free available cash.
The Outstanding Shs are about 370,000,000 .
A yr and a half ago it was about 140,000,000 .
* * * * * * Now How Strange Is That * * * * * * *
Get Ready For Another Bad Quarter
And Get Ready For A Reverse-Split
JMO
More Insider Dilution
Sold Last Wednesday
Trade Date Mar 8, 2017
520,925 Shs Sold At $0.46
Filing Date Mar 10, 2017
That's 2,619,561 More Shs Diluted
Into The OS & Float Just In March
Insider Form-4 Selling
Oct 14, 2016 - Mar 8, 2017
15,687,206 Shs by Maxwell Ltd
Nov 2016 - Jan 2017
76,067 Shs by Management
TOTAL SOLD = 15,687,206
Current March 2017 Outstanding Shs
Guessing about 370,258,304 or even higher
( Sept 2015 the OS was only 140,374,297 )
ATM (At The Market) Dilution
The ATM could be another 100,000,000 Shs
diluted into the OS and Float at today's pps.
This 1st Qtr Will Be Another Bad One
They won't even be able to stay ahead of the dilution. And that's on top of all the debt, bad deals, and interest payments. They have no cash. They will pay the interest on debt with common shs, adding to the dilution. They won't meet their collaboration requirements and will be forced to make those bad deals even worse. They have to do a Reverse-Split.
Heading Down To The 30's
The New Top is still $0.444. And heading down into the 30's. Don't be fooled by little technical bounces on the chart. The Market Makers take advantage of you that way. They are helping insiders dump and dilute shs. They know the plan is to do a 1-for-20 Reverse-Split.
Just My Opinion
Selling Update
Sold Last Monday
Trade Date Mar 6, 2017
852,224 Shs Sold At $0.45
Filing Date Mar 8, 2017
Insider Form-4 Selling
* Oct 14, 2016 - Mar 6, 2017
15,166,281 Shs by Maxwell Ltd
* Nov 2016 - Jan 2017
76,067 Shs by Management
* In Addition To Other Dilution
TOTAL SINCE OCT 2016 = 15,242,348
Form-D & S-3 & 8-K Since Dec 2016
Approx Sh Equivalent Guess = 82,520,640
Current March 2017 Outstanding Shs
Guessing about 369,737,379 or even higher
( Sept 2015 the OS was only 140,374,297 )
ATM (At The Market) Dilution
< On March 8, 2016 the Company entered into an "At The Market (ATM)" Issuance Sales Agreement with FBR Capital Markets & Co. under which the Company may issue and sell Shs of its Common Stock having an aggregate offering of up to $50M from time to time. >
The ATM could be another 100,000,000 Shs
diluted into the OS and Float at today's pps.
Just My Opinion
New Top At $0.444
The 30's Are Next
Closed right at today's mean.
(0.4673 Hi + 0.4201 Lo) / 2 = 0.4437
Which is equal to the New Top.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=128101161
Once it gets to the 30's there may be
volatile downward spikes that may not
follow the remaining technicals.
What's Coming
They are using credit to make debt payments.
And some of the debt interest will be paid by
the use of common shares ... More Dilution.
Pretty soon the company will start to
default on collaboration projections,
then they will be forced to renegotiate
their bad terms into even worse terms.
The 1st Quarter Report will confirm
the drop somewhere in the low 0.30's .
This will help set-up for the reverse split.
The report will be due the first week of May.
Is There Anything Else ?
Yes. Keep an eye on the Overall Market.
And keep your eye on The White House.
Just My Opinion
NOSTRADAMUS
Look at the first 3 After-Hour trades
They are only 1 share each, at $0.47
The first three shares represent: 1+1+1
The 3-47's are 4+7, or 11 each: 11+11+11
Adding 3-11's plus 3-1's equals 36
The 3x6 extrapolation reveals
The three sixes ... 6 6 6
* * * THE MARK OF THE BEAST * * *
666 * Six Hundred And Sixty Six * 666
The Maket Is Extremely Overbought
Questionable Leaders In The White House
Market Collapse / Severe Correction Coming
SO LET IT BE WRITTEN
Probably Somewhere Around 30 Cents
Then Lower To 20 Cents For The R-Split
SO LET IT BE DONE
Just My Opinion
DID YOU KNOW
Investors Were Tricked
Somebody concocted an Internet Pump-n-Dump Fake-News Campaign scheme. A scheme supported by repetitive amplified stories of grandeur. This quarter will be profitable... some yelled. No dilution... some said. No insider selling... some screamed. They're saving lives... some claimed. But millions and millions of cash revenues were spent. Massive dilution has taken place. Insiders have sold. Funds have sold. Millions and millions of investors' money are all gone. Lives have been destroyed... not saved.
Sneaky Dilution & Insider Selling
While the company touted non-dilutive funding to support their growth plans... at that same time they created an almost relative amount of warrants, plus unrelated dilution events totaling millions and millions and millions of common shares that could be added to the OS and Float... which was unbeknownst to many investors at the time. And many of those debatable Bad Collaborations included notes that could also end up being converted and diluted into additional common shares as well. And most of the dilution taken place was not known to many during the added surprise of insider selling.
How Did They Do It
And so they take on the accomplishments of others, only to fool you. Skewed conclusions that are nothing more than far-fetched and unethical false self-promotions. Massive dilution mysteriously takes place, top holders and insiders are selling. And they sold and diluted during a highly debatable P-n-D scheme. And they may try again.
Why Did They Do It
They had to do it. They had to do it before you found out. They had to do it before you found out there were no profits. Before you found out massive dilution was taking place. Before you found out there were no good deals. Before you found out the EPS was approaching negative infinity.
The Coming 1st Quarter Report
Just like the Third Quarter missed expectations by a lot, with a declining EPS to negative ($0.08), the Fourth Quarter missed even worse, to an increasingly negative (0.14). And the First Quarter 2017 report that is coming up will again not show any improvement as well. What happened to the revenues? Where'd they go? Again, nothing ever really seems to add up when compared to those many touted used and abused Forward-Looking Statements.
Tricked Again
The company may have been only interested in two things: Trying to trick investors into indirectly paying for their salaries through various forms of dilution. While "enticing" 3rd parties to create a P-n-D momentum scheme, thus allowing the privileged few to sell .
What Do You See
Missed Projections? Lower EPS? Mysteriously vanished revenues? No Profit? Dilution? Insider Selling? Stupid repetitive third party opinions? Maybe you saw how things were not as they were once described? Maybe now you see how things may not be matching up as some perceived? Maybe you see an unjustified risk at this level? Maybe, like others that have already fled, you now see quite a lot of work still yet to be done? And maybe it will take more time than was originally thought, before things even begin to show a glimmer as to what was once promised by so many ?
SO WHAT'S NEXT
Probably Somewhere Around 30 Cents
Then Lower To 20 Cents For The R-Split
DID YOU KNOW THAT
Just My Opinion
Update - More Selling
Sold Last Thursday
Trade Date Mar 2, 2017
868,589 Shs Sold At $0.49
Filing Date Mar 6, 2017
Insider Form-4 Selling
* Oct 14th - Mar 2nd there were a total of
14,314,057 Shs sold by Maxwell Pte Ltd.
They are wholly-owned by Cairnhill Inv,
which is wholly-owned by Fullerton Ltd,
which is wholly-owned by Temasek Hldgs.
( 6,908,452 <--- DEC1 ---> 7,405,605 )
Jan 2017 - R Asadorian CFO - Sold = 29,186
Nov 2016 - John Melo, CEO - Sold = 37,580
Nov 2016 - J Cherry, Pes R&D - Sold = 9,301
* All In Addition To Other Dilutive Events
TOTAL SINCE OCT 28, 2016 = 14,390,124
Form D's & S-3 Since Dec 2016
Approx Sh Equivalent Guess = 74,648,300
Recent March 3rd 8-K Convertible Note
Approx Sh Equivalent Guess = 7,872,340
Current March 2017 Outstanding Shs
Guessing about 368,885,155 or even higher
( Sept 2015 the OS was only 140,374,297 )
ATM (At The Market) Dilution
< On March 8, 2016 the company entered into an "At The Market (ATM)" Issuance Sales Agreement with FBR Capital Markets & Co. under which the Company may issue and sell shares of its common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $50M from time to time. >
That could be an additional 100,000,000 Shs
diluted into the OS and Float at today's pps.
Just My Opinion
It's OK To Be Worried
Totally Understandable
$0.30's = Probably This Month
Added Pressure Will Be A
Market Correction / Collapse
EOM
Good Reason To Be Worried
* Nothing To Do With Biofuels
* The Debt Is Almost $230,00,000
* Never Clear If They Have Any "Real" Cash
* Evaluation For Current OS Is 368,016,566
* 18 Mos Ago The OS Was Only 140,374,297
* 100M sh Dilution Still Avail From ATM Facility
* 1-for-20 Rev-Split Can Happen At Any Time
The Price Should Be Around $0.30
But It Will Hit $0.20 Before The Split
Just My Opinion
Reverse Split Is Coming
Seriously - They Want To Do It
They won't come out and tell you that to your face... But that's what they want to do. They are set-up for it. They will pretend like they are doing everything they can to a avoid it, because they are taught that's what you want to hear. But it's just another day to them .
The Game Plan
First they will dilute their OS to about 400M common shares, and then do a 1-for-20 RS at around 20 cents. Usually the Authorized Shares will also be split, but they won't split those in this case. They will keep the AS high at 500M, with a low OS at around 20M after the split. Then they can go deep into that 500M-AS when they need to further dilute into some type of Equity Offering, or maybe another Bad Collaboration Deal .
Just Following The Plan
They will follow the same plan learned in their CEO Seminar Training Courses. You know, at that CEO SCHOOL. It's a highly required prerequisite before becoming a CEO. Did you know that? I think it's the course that's titled: "How To Maintain A Hefty Salary While Diluting Your Profitless Company Into A Reverse Split While Getting Away With It Before Your Shareholders Figure Out What Hit Them As You Continue Leading Them On With Forward-Looking Statements".
I might have the course title wrong, but it's something like that .
That Friday Surprise 8-K
I think that senior convertible note of $3.7M is equivalent to almost 8,000,000 additional common shares that may soon be diluted into the market. Right on schedule .
Just My Opinion
Not Good News
The EPS for the 3rd Quarter was (0.08)
The average estimate was (0.06)
Some were expecting (0.02)
It was very disappointing.
The EPS for this 4th Quarter is (0.14)
The average estimate was (0.06)
And everybody was hoping . . .
But They Missed Again !!!
This Time By 8 Cents !!!
And That's A Lot !!!
Bad Deals - Tons Of Debt - More Dilution
Missed the revenue target they baited you with.
Revenues don't matter, money just disappears.
EOM
More Selling Tuesday
Sold Last Tuesday
Trade Date Feb 28, 2017
377,823 Shs Sold At $0.51
Filing Date May 2, 2017
Previous Form-4 Selling
Oct 14th - Feb 28th there were a total of
13,445,468 Shs sold by Maxwell Pte Ltd.
They are wholly-owned by Cairnhill Investments,
which in turn is wholly-owned by Fullerton Pte Ltd,
which in turn is wholly-owned by Temasek Holdings.
Jan 01, 2017 - R Asadorian CFO - Sold = 29,186
Nov 01, 2016 - John Melo, CEO - Sold = 37,580
Nov 01, 2016 - J Cherry, Pes R&D - Sold = 9,301
* All In Addition To Other Dilutive Events
TOTAL SOLD SINCE OCT 28, 2016 = 13,521,535
Form D's & S-3 Since Dec 2016
Approximate Share Equivalent Guess = 74,648,300
Current March 2017 Outstanding Shs
Guessing about 353,607,210 or even higher
( Sept 2015 the OS was 140,374,297 )
ATM (At The Market) Dilution
On March 8, 2016 the company entered into an "At The Market (ATM)" Issuance Sales Agreement with FBR Capital Markets & Co. under which the Company may issue and sell shares of its common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $50M from time to time.
That could be an additional 100,000,000 Common Shs to be diluted into the OS and Float at today's pps, plus anything else.
Just My Opinion
Outstanding Shares
End of September 2015
The OS was about 140,374,297
End of November 2016
The OS was about 278,958,910
End of December 2016
I'm guessing the Q will say
the OS is about 294,222,068
As of Now - March 2017
I'm guessing the OS is about 343,156,759
But they won't tell you that for a while yet
LOOK - These Guys Did A Number On You
Just My Opinion
After The Market Closes
The Bad 4th Quarter Report
It will be released after the market closes tomorrow, near the end of the week, on a Thursday. They will try to make some positive remarks, while using and abusing some Forward-Looking Statements.
Then, after the close on Friday, they will probably release a surprise 8-K that discloses some kind of Dilutive Equity Offering.
They will say it will be used for "General Purposes", because all that revenue last year amounted to absolutely no available cash.
Then they will hide. And you won't hear a peep out of them until May.
Because that's what they learn to do in those: "Loser CEO Schools" .
Just My Opinion
Dilution Dilution Dilution
So Let's See
You know... Some people may think it's clever to come on a message board and try to diffuse something that they don't like, and may actually know very little about. Perhaps just trying to confuse others from what the truth really is. Trying to save a bad investment.
Rebalancing Their Portfolio
Gee, I guess that should justify the selling, huh? Sure, all institutions are always rebalancing their portfolios. But that's their job, isn't it? After all, it's an institutional holder and they can do whatever they want. It's all good, right? Forget about whether it's a buy or a sell. Forget about the quantity. It doesn't matter at all, right? I mean, who would want to keep track of all that stuff? For example: Who cares what Warren Buffet is buying or selling anyway... Besides everyone else on the planet.
Sure ... "Just Rebalancing Their Portfolio" ... Now why didn't I think of that ?
Here's Some Of That Temasek Rebalancing
If you check out this link below, you might see what Tamesek Holdings Ltd may be doing with some of that money they may have made off of this companies shareholders. Note that most of them are "New". And not much "Rebalancing" going on there at all.
http://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/institutional-portfolio/temasek-holdings-private-ltd-33497
It sure looks like from all the previous insider Form-4 selling, that they may have been building up a portfolio off the backs of this companies shareholders. All with the possible help from a debatable Pump-n-Dump Scheme that left many investors high-n-dry over the past several months, or even longer.
Some More Rebalancing
BTW... All of the Form-4 selling transactions have really been through Maxwell (Mauritius) Pte Ltd. They are wholly-owned by Cairnhill Investments, which in turn is wholly-owned by Fullerton Pte Ltd, which in turn is wholly-owned by Temasek Holdings.
So now, let's see how Maxwell has been "Rebalancing" their portfolio. If you look at the next link below, you will see that this company may be the only one they have. And it looks like nothing but a HUGE amount of selling has been going on there. That's some kind of a "Rebalancing Act", for sure !
http://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/insiders/maxwell-mauritius-pte-ltd-896001
These Shares Were Free
Oh Ya, Sure... That Makes Everything OK Then :-- )
When it comes to selling, it doesn't matter if they are free or not. And if you are claiming either, it would be nice to back it up with a link. Because Form-4's usually disclose if they are free, vested, or common... etc.
Let's just assume they were free. Maybe they were at one time restricted, or options issued at a price of $0.01. Basically free money that is now vested to be sold. Well... That's even worse. Because now that becomes even More Pure Dilution, on top of them being sold into Common Shares, and at "Convenient Times" to cut the losses.
One Liners
There is no One-Liner-Message that can simply justify a hopeful wish, in order to relieve one's anxiety of making a bad investment decision. Those days are over.
Just My Opinion