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There are 5 new convertible notes issued since May 2014. @ 45% to 60% discount, with 9.99% restrictions. The last; Sept, "Tangiers" note has a 10% increase to the 60% discount, if the company stock has a chill placed on it.
That's raises a real concern on my part. When a VC has concern their investment conversions may have problems with regulatory agencies and the discount was the largest, 60%.
No reported conversions yet. Doesn't mean they haven't started though.
Asher moved out Aug 13.
A/S raise from 150 mil to 500 mil June 23.
Looks dark
HJOE
Looks free trading at pull down bottom. Check for debit conversion at lows to see if darkside is involved.
I'd say one could day trade any continuation tomorrow, but be out if it hits .008 and re-enter on .008 break with strength. Because if there is darksiders involved, Odds are they will pull it back if resistance is reached. If resistance is broken I'd expect it's free trading as guessed.
So pattern resistance break is the key. Entry/exit indicators saying be in for continuation, support indicators saying accumulation taking place. The hitch is will another pull down occur.
Chart looks like retail wants a come back, but someone big disagrees.
Sorry still need to do that post. Friday night around 7 pm my nose started running. I was knocked out in bed by 9 pm, with a major cold till an hour ago. Did nothing this weekend but sip whisky, blow nose, cough flem, wheeze, and suck on inhaler to breath.
I know I posted I'd do a post on Dividend stocks, but haven't yet. Maybe I'll find time this weekend. I'm looking to rebalance my divvy plays before years end and start anew in 2015. So I have been watching my holds closely. I'll be spending some time on that re-evaluation this week end, along with looking for next weeks strong watch list. So the mood to do a long video on dividend investing may catch me.
I didn't forget.
That impression is correct.
I completely tried to ignore the POT panic. With my experience over 10 years. I never saw any sector rally last as long or get as big, though. Being only a OTC dabbler now. I relied on something which was changing right before my eyes and couldn't make sense of it. Missed a lot of gains there. Expecting the crash any day, for weeks and months. And staying away mostly.
But right after I, noticed Asher started dumping out of all their holdings. This was the start (in my mind) a change was ahead. Following I counted no less the 12 stocks being dumped by Asher and started noticing all my old experience with trading the OTC wasn't working well. Managed to close only (I don't know) maybe 6 OTC setup trades, over several months after the POT craze. And they were on free trading chart pattern, not darkside moves. Very strange. Then I started to here from penny players of this new dump along the way VC thing. And that has been seen enough now, to trust it.
There were comments from trusted board members that increased regulation was the cause of Asher getting out of the funding business and VCs (in general) taking bit by bit, over manipulated runs. And because of the huge never seen before, rally in POT scams, this was the cause of increased attention/regulation implementation.
But no matter how one looks at all this. IMO only the VC industry knows why they have changed their game. And no one posting on message boards are in the VC industry to explain what actually caused this change. So we all guess. And I have no idea what all this change was/is caused by. Only that the change has happened.
Actually don't care. But the goal now (for others) should be to find a way to see new setup indications. So one can take advantage of this knowledge and "Do what the big guys do!" again. I just don't personal have the desire to put in all the time and research I did the first time again, to continue playing at the OTC. So it's become real low on my radar. Actually probably won't include any portion of my portfolio in next years business plan for trading the OTC, for the first time ever.
Perfect example of planning the trade and trading the plan.
Trade 2.30 to 2.50
Trade 2.20 to 2.90
Looking for bounce above 50% FIBs
FIBs bounce was tradable, but because it was below 50% continuation may not break top resistance. Trade 2.90 to 3.40
FIBs retracement Rule of Thumb;
If flag 1st bounce comes from 38% expect top resistance broken on bounce. If from 50% expect top resistance on bounce. From 61% expect 38% and from below 61% expect 1st bounce to reach 50%.
Tip; the more FIBs retracement lines crossed, the lower the odds for top resistance to be broken again.
Tip; Flags usually come in 3's
Big boards
Closed F @ 15.15 target today. NKE & MSFT are still unexpectedly climbing. NAK is trying real hard to break out of ascending triangle/double bottom. ZBB still strong watch for DB, but CERE removed. WLT back on strong watch for flag continuation.
Pennyland
PXYN worth another day or 2 watch for resistance break on flag. Though today wasn't good.
A step ahead of you. I already did research in all these crowd funding sites. And was aware of Reg A & D changes possible. During my on going self education about starup funding, last year. It's actually an interesting concept.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/chancebarnett/2013/05/08/top-10-crowdfunding-sites-for-fundraising/
Repubs have been trying to get deregulation bills thru since 2012.
But I don't see how deregulation which helps wealthy scam retail again, has anything to do with todays changes in the OTC. All it does is open the back door; Reg SHO closed on scamming. And since the house makes the laws, which congress needs to approve and the president has to sign off on. Everyone expected deregulation bills to pop up because of the house has been republican. Thing is the odds for these to get past congress was low till this election.
So Yea, now we can pretty much expect deregulation in several areas of my 2015 hot sectors list, Pharma, banking/finance and defense contracting. As the party pays it forward to those that paid for their win.
"Floorless" conversions
A great subject, which may need a little explanation. It's all in the number. And was rarely used in the old days of 10X runs. But seems is the flavor of the OTC now days.
For those which don't understand what this means.
When a VC receives Death Spiral funding, also known as toxic convertible or floorless convertible. They are guaranteed a discount to market price where and when ever they convert debit into shares of company stock.
We all know basic math, so if you apply it, you can see how every lower price conversion creates larger numbers of shares being issued. And we all know the lower the OTC price, the more volume is seen.
So when Bigbank says:
I know, he's my go to guy also.
No problem that's what the board is for. Passing info. And since I haven't traded a triple zero for years or watched the Time & Sales the subject was great for readers & I to know about.
From what every one that plays the OTC has been telling me. You seemed to rap it all up nicely. Basic, simple and clean; The OTC needs knowledgeable day traders to succeed there now days.
IMO releasing message boarders into the realm of day trading could be catastrophic. Try to teach how to interpret bid/ask build to a cow.
Last time I followed a message board was years and years ago. Now days if I scan a stock board because I see potential in the chart for a set up. The stupidity I read almost makes me cry. These people are laying hard owned cash down on bull chit! With next to zero understanding of what they are doing.
The herd mentality is just not my cup of tea any longer. Use to like discussing news releases and research OTC filings. But the scary social aspects of message boards turn me off. I'm more of a wolf then cow. Don't have that human herding instinct at all. More of a pack kind of guy.
There has always been pumpers and bashers. The scary aspect is still so many followers in a dead market. If VCs mindset is bit by bit now. Why even stick around. Go some where that logic prevails to some degree.
I've been bit by bit for years and no one in pennyland wanted to hear about that. LOL At least some big boarders have interest in TA & charting. Been trying to guide pennylanders away from OTC boredom for months at the board. Hope they start looking at small caps as the next logical step to their progression. and go after 10 to 20% small cap gains, instead of trying to day trade todays OTC. Successful day trading is much harder then learning swing trading.
I'm slowly excepting that the OTC of old is no longer. JMO this one looks old school. Probably wrong as I really don't spend any time researching anything in pennyland any longer. But if trends in price action remain, odds are the market as a whole will become known as a ghost town, instead of wild west.
I just posted how market makers M&Ms are dwindling, If the OTC VC niche follows, gambling on the OTC may be a thing of the past.
As for the Venture Capital industry, it seems to be booming. But in other niches. Lots of money flowing into second and third round funding of non public companies. Probably why we see TV shows on the subject now. If you ever watched Shark Tank, you get an idea of how rich big guys think.
The company owner gives their company a value and asks for a percentage of ownership based on that. Every shark cuts that value hugely forcing owners to except way less then wanted or expected. Adding the synergy of their experience to help build a successful start up. Usually owners jump at giving more of their company for the mentorship, over cash desired. But basic, simple and clean. The Sharks fleece the owners every show.
I find business start up funding interesting and have spent hours learning about it. Here's a link to help understand startup funding. Keep in mind this info is more about private startups then public. Public like the OTC is another niche. And we're discussing the changes in that niche now.
Will OTC VCs be happy with smaller gains and continue to fund. Or move on to a new area to fund. That's the question. Or will they try to resort back to the old ways.
Here's the link to study startups to IPO's. Great basic info !!! IMO
http://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/core-finance/stock-and-bonds/venture-capital-and-capital-markets/v/raising-money-for-a-startup
Happy I'm not really interested in the OTC and trying to make sense of what's happening. I saw ERFB wasn't going to continue at open and went outside and raked leaves. LOL.
BUT I always have a but. LOL
Yes I know debit conversions are issued at discount prices. My problem is those discounts aren't large enough for greedy VCs to dump without some price increase. I mean in pennyland retail won't even sell for a 25% gain. Why think a big guy, which makes a living fleecing people would. And would also pay numerous trade fees to sell in small retail buy sizes.
I just don't see it. The VC mindset isn't small time. It's big time.
Lets look at ERFB for a couple issuances.
Forgot to mention a heads up for F ford. I entered today on breakout. Target $15.15
Could be a fake though. No volume increase. Maybe I should have placed my entry at 14.50 instead of 14.25. LOL
Agree selling for less gain then 5x to 10x has been the VC play style lately. But this one just got an old style price pop for no reason, with large volume. Who's feeding the emotion by selling other then the VCs which have been issued 21.6 mil the last month. Making it look like darkside action of old. Plus the daily volumes don't match well for quick issuance gain only plays. Daily volumes less the half issued in most cases.
We'll see. I don't feel VCs dumped along the way. Maybe todays volume was the left over shares. But why dump daily, then run it for larger gains, after the fact. Just doesn't make sense to me, with todays action.
It's a strong watch for darkside play. I'll be watching for day trade continuations to trade.
Did you look at the company PR's I posted? They tell you they issued well over 10% of the OS. What can I say.
You win. I'm wrong. No darkside play to watch for.
ERFB
My original dilution estimate of 18 mil was a little low. It's 21.6 mil for sale and maybe 4.3 mil (75% of the days volume) was sold in todays 5.7 mil volume. Leaving 17.3 mil for sale higher.
This is a darkside OTC game play. Not won't play because I hate the company for deluding. All those shares will be sold to retail for profits. That's the game big guys play !! They don't break even or take losses. They manipulate runs and pops for profits. Which is just started IMO.
Seems your bad taste from a history with this stock is the forest blocking the trees.
It's all in the numbers. This is the first real pop since the bottom was reached OCT 15. Thus this is the first opportunity for conversion shares to be dumped into the emotional retail herd for profits. Since there are at least 18 mil for sale, you can expect more to come. Especially with some being issued in the 3 cent area. I'd expect price to at least reach .04. But as you say high risk. Because only the Shadow knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men.
They reported the funding in an 8K, just not the details. The amount of disclosure a company releases on the OTC is up to the company. All they told anyone was 3 year credit line, $2.5 mil in $250k trenches. No Idea on terms, repayment schedule, interest rates, penalties, asset backed or stock issued for funding. But VC's always take ownership in a company for funding. Banks evaluate assets and repayment ability based on financial performance. This is not a bank loan, but VC funding.
Actually they didn't have to tell anyone of debit conversions in an 8k. All they really need to do is up date OS in Q filings.
ERFB - Next @ pennyland. Just found this one on IHUBs Breakout Boards hot list.
Major dilution in October !!!
Sept 12th OS 10.4 mil
Oct 31st OS 28.6 mil
Looks like they were issued between .007 to 1 at .03. Most around .013
Also picked up a $2.5 mil new funder in $200k trenches. To buy out those that won't convert. But don't forget, shares will be issued for the use of that cash. Just not reported.
They are rebalancing their balance sheet. Converting and buying out old debit. Plenty of shares for sale and just started today !
Could last more then a day or 3 with 5 mil today and at least 18 mil for sale.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ERFB&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p75175278078
Play at your own risk !
CPST became interesting again. Fell to hell after last heads up. Like it's comeback. I'm back to even on starter position. Says retail mindset stronger then 15% shorts. SO FAR; flag resistance break on volume will tell the tale. Plan larger position @ 1.05. Gap down was shorts IMO, on 1 cent miss in earnings and analyst up grade same day. Retail didn't agree with shorts.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CPST&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p72032922002
link back - Big boards
Posted 2 posts about moving from the OTC to the big boards. And posting recent big board results are to show pennylanders there is an alternative to the OTC. But I have to stress, these gains are not typical. Finding so many small caps with large gain charts is normally the exception, not the rule. Usually you find chart patterns offering 5 to 15% targets under $5.
Closed WLT for 30% at open, because of high red day candle. Also closed LEDS at open @ even +/- a penny or two. Ascending triangle break fake out.
Talking of fake outs. Standing buy @ 3.50 for MPO closed Friday and price retraced to pattern break. Was planning to take a loss at open today, with standing sell market order, but it gapped open to 3.50 and closed where I bought. So that saved my 10% loss. Pure luck.
Plus MM closed for 22% in 1 day last week.
So total on this round of small cap trading ended @ +52%. And 33% playing FAS/FAZ for a month.
Still watching the 3 double bottom stocks. SIAF retracing south on week 3 decision, Off watch.
Take profits when they present/ They present the first red day of a run. Take losses quickly, preserve capital!
Trailing stops @ LEDS & MPO were -20% on 40% pattern targets. Take losses quickly, preserve capital!
ANR
If it doesn't bounce before reaching 61% FIBs retrace, walk away. If it does, IMO don't re-enter until top resistance is broken.
The more FIBs lines crossed on the way down, the harder it is to reach top resistance again. They become support/resistance in a flag pattern.
Also remember you always want to see increasing volume interest, in a climbing stock.
If an active stock falls to triple zero, odds are it can't find new funding. Fewer M&Ms and now fewer VC investments seems to be the thing at to OTC now days. The whole environment and mindset is changing in pennyland.
I believe in TA & charting. That's still what I've been saying. Not calling for a come back yet. But retail chooses price . If their keeping it from retracing, they could start a new come back.
I have no skin in the game, but lean toward TA & charting. And an eventual retrace to a drawn out bottom channel.
Defiantly at a decision point, also lots of bottom fishers betting it's the bottom. But Indicators leaning south. Needs that dark master returning. Meaning a new funding deal @ .001 area IMO or it may walk down more.
Since it hasn't retraced to 1.60 possible it's working on a 4th attempt to break out above 2.40 and finish closing the large gap. IMO needs volume increase for that to happen.
LOL just check and MM closed for 22%+/-. Hit 2.05 target, standing sell closed..
Already have it on weekly watch along with PXYN & HKUP. PXYN can move to strong watch for flag continuation, after today.
PXYN
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PXYN&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p86415537546
By the way My small caps; MM and WLT doing well. MM up 15% and WLT 14%. LEDS on the other hand is coming back. Still up 2%+/-
Holy chit, been watching SHLD (Sears) and JCP (Penny's). SHLD went crazy today. Also can strong watch JCP @ resistance. It's in week 3 of a high and tight flag and broke north. Entry at top resistance break, Target 8.50
SHLD
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SHLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p50444557918
JCP
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JCP&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p37995481260
ANR chart
This one is working on a single bottom bounce mid term and flag short term. Flag target 2.90, single bottom till it hits a resistance point it can't break. Watch volume for continuation expectations. Decreasing volume in a run signals stall or retrace. IMO if volume doesn't get better today, think about taking profits.
The high tight flag (retrace stays above 50% FIBs) is another one I've been watching for a new TIP. The theory is breakout or fall happens in week 3 on high and tight flags, that don't continue right away.
The more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it!
Another week 3 decision.
Your correct there. The S&P doesn't leave gaps much. Thing is, that gap is a runaway gap, seen in climbing stocks. And run away gaps usually take time to fill.
Gaps
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=52290086
Still waiting for NKE retrace. LOL May be a long wait. But now has gap below. Got-a happen sometime. Even though short term TA is still positive. Nothing runs forever. But yep, I'm wrong so far. Thought the retrace would start this week!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NKE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p96229197865
Also should update F (ford). Looking like ascending triangle about to break. Strong daily watch now. $14.50 and I'm in. Next week is week 3 of high tight flag theory.
PS; not playing FAS/FAZ this week. Opened 3 possibly 1 more small cap plays. May use my OTC and or reserve cash for FAZ, if wash back comes as expected.