Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
RUT Looks Like and ED
From MAy '08 lows. Presently in wave e of ending diagonal. Friday should wrap it up, and Monday should drop sharply.
10 yr Treasury Chart Insertion
I'm trying the instructions to insert a chart. Thanx.
The yield on the 10 yr Treasury has broken lone term trend, and looks like an E-wave. Look for rangebound consolidation over the next couple of weeks between 3.70 and 4.00%.
Getting Shanghai'd - Ewaves
The rally off the April '08 lows looks like a zigzag. This is corrective. My view is it has corrected only part of the Jan '08 selloff. All through May '08 the index sold off in a very choppy move that could be a triangle. This implies 1 more zigzag higher. This would give the index a chance to converge on fibonacci ratios in time (3 to 2) and price ( 1 to .382 or .5)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SSEC&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p80097074449
Quick E-wave SPX
Since the March '08 bottom there have been 3 segments of advance
March 17 - April 7
April 15 - May 2
May 11 - May 19
None of these waves look motive ( 5 segments)
The middle wave is not the smallest.
The last wave overlapped the first wave.
The index tagged the 200 DMA. Today it fell sharply away.
Possible outcomes
1.) Bullish: This is the end of Wave B of a WAVE 4. Wave C will test the March lows before a rally to new all-time highs.
2.) Bullish to Bearish: This is THE last rally (a truncating ending diagonal) of WAVE B from year 2003 - 2003. Expect a BLISSBULL crash scenario. March low should be retested in 2-3 weeks.
3.) Bearish: This is a Wave 2 (complex WXY) of WAVE C, of a flat which began in y2K. Gapping to the downside will take out more than 40% of the index value.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
INDU Intraday Symmetry
Start with last Friday's lows as the point of symmetry. Notice how the tops and bottoms of every multi-hour trend are lower after the bottom than with the multi-hour trends before Friday? This would suggest a large market force is pushing down on the price. The SPX broke the multi-week high, but the INDU did not. This non-confirmation also points to weakness.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=INDU&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=18&freq=9&startdate=&enddate=&hiddenTrue=&comp=Enter+Symbol%28s%29%3A&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&compind=aaaaa%7E0&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=3&optstyle=1013
Gettin - Triangle
The double zigzag could turn into a triangle if
1.) the rally off the Wave C lows is a zigzag that ends about where the line connecting the beginning of Waves A and C
2.) The short rally pulls back in a zigzag. In a strong market Wave E migh not completely retrace Wave D. This is called truncation. In an exhausted market Wave E will break the trendline connecting the ends of Wave A and C.
Gettin Double Zigzags
A double zigzag occurs in a corrective wave where lesser degree wave A and are zigzags.
In Gold. The trend from the March '08 high has been corrective. At first I thought a double zigzag was forming.
Wave A = March '08 high to March '08 low.
Wave C = April '08 high to April '08 low.
With a weak , overlapping, rally out of the early May '08 lows not breaking the upper trend line of the correction, I have shifted my priority that the correction is a triangle. Today's drop starts Wave E. The price should briefly break below the $846.40 level within the next 2 weeks before rocketing higher.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$gold&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
Golden Triangle.
Gold has already made what looks to be a double zigzag correction from the all-time highs. The rally the last few trading sessions looks a little choppy for a motive wave. I'm leaning toward wave d of triangle nearly completed. Wave e's target would place the bottom in the $825 area. The motive wave following a triangle in a commodity is usually an exponential explosion. $2000 / oz is realistic.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$gold&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
Gettin CHK
WAVE I from 1999 to 2001
WAVE II ended lows of 2001 or 2002
WAVE III ended highs 2005
WAVE VI triangle ended early 2007.
WAVE V In wave 3 of 3 of 3 at a minimum
Gettin
You are probably in a wave 3 of 3 of 3, a very good place to be since this is when the price rises the fastest. Just enjoy the ride for the next 6-12 months.
7 New Lows on ABX Mortgage Index.
And these lows occurred when the better bonds were topping.
The best AAA dropped hard today with stocks after a zigzag rally out of the March 17th low. I'm finding this to be a helpful indicator of larger market turns. Market goe down the next 2 to 6 months.
Korean KOSPI - 10 Month Head n Shoulders
This is a really great head and shoulders chart of the Korean Seoul index. The e-waves are also very clear. WAVE 2 (Double zigzag) is ready to rollover. I doubt this is the only market ready to make a major move lower.
Fib time ratio WAVE 1 to 2 is 3
WAVE 2 retraced a fib ratio of 60% of WAVE 1.
There are too many technical indicators pointing to a top and major reversal to be ignored.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$KOSPI&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p74649979747
Complex Double Zigzag Near End
As willie pointed out, there is a triangle on most intraday index charts. This implies one more thrust starting tomorrow morning. Post triangle thrusts generally travel the width of the triangle.
Let's use the SPX as a proxy for the others. There are some fib price ratios in play.
Within the Complex Double Zigzag from the March '08 lows, Friday's high makes for a good zag to zig ratio of .786. The Fib time ratio is nearly 1! So does the post intraday triangle rally to Friday's highs, or something higher at a larger degree of trend?
Comparing WAVE 1 (Oct '07 to March '08) to WAVE 2 (March '08 to present), Friday's highs is between the 50% and 60% levels. This could lead on final rally to the 1448 area. The weakness in this case is the time ratio is 29% too far from 33%.
The stochastics are overbought at this level, and could turn down any moment.
The 200 DMA is overhead resistance.
The MACD difference has been decreasing slowly and could go negative any moment.
The Bollinger bands are widening to anticipate future volatility. The price has been following the upper band for a couple of weeks now and will start moving toward the average.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p29823171596
Broadening Tops - Ewaves
A broadening top as interpreted using Elliot waves is a bunch of waves 4's and 5's of multiple degrees of trend. Wave 4 flats really help to give that expanding look.
SPX is a Double-Double-Double WAVE B Zigzag
Double Zigzag 1 = March 17 to April 7, 130 points, lasting 15 days
Double zigzag 1a = March 17 to March 25
Double zigzag 1b = March 25 to April 7
Double Zigzag 2 = April 15 to present, 86 points, 13 days so far.
Double zigzag 2a = April 15 to April 18
Double zigzag 2b = May 1 to present
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p30985713692
While the points have reached a fibonacci ratio of 2/3, the time ratio .866 is caught between .786 and 1. Two more days and 15 more points would place Double Zigzag 1 = Double Zigzag 2 in time, and a points ratio of .786.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p34855459368
The longer chart shows WAVE 2 to WAVE 1 points ratio at a hair under .50. The WAVE 2 to WAVE 1 (October '07 to March '08) time ratio is .27, still too far from a ratio of .333.
Stochastics are very overbought.
Signs of the Markets' Tops
NDX RUT SPX INDU DAX FTSE CAC
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
1.) The Elliot wave structure since the March 17 rally looks complete. All had double zigzags.
2.) The RUT did not make a new rally high (truncation) with the NDX SPX and INDU around the time the FED spoke.
3.) The Stochastics have been in the overbought area a couple of days, and faked early exits a couple of times.
4.) The MACD is flattening as the price rose. This signals slowing/ reversing momentum.
5.) Bollinger bands just started opening, allowing for increased volatility in the coming days. Downside targets would be along the lower band.
6.) Candlestick inverted hammer is a topping form.
7.) Relatively large volume on a down day.
Recession?
I read the email the CEO of SI sent the employees after earnings were announced this morning. He stated we are in a "global recession" in no uncertain terms. So it's official. When the CEO of GE's competitor says the world is in a recession, then we're in a recession.
SKF and UYG wave counts
UYG is the ultra financials
SKF is the ultrashirt financials
These ETFs are inverse of each other, so analyzing one is the opposite of the other.
UYG may have 1 or 3 more days of rally left in a double zigzag off the March '08 lows.
Wave a, zigzag, 5 days long
Wave b triangle, From March 24 to April 23. It signals the last wave of the larger degree of trend is next.
Wave c, has run 3 days an has 1 or 2 days left, has to be a zigzag.
The stochastics are approaching oversold.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UYG&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p38852161170
Be ready to buy SKF or sell/ short UYG.
SPX Wave Count
Enough of a pattern has developed where I have some confidence providing a wave count for the SPX. Off the March '08 lows is a double zigzag.
Wave a, double zigzag from March 17 to April 7. 15 days and 129 points
Wave b, zigzag from April 7 to April 15. 6 days and 63 points
Wave c, final stages of a double zigzag from April 15 to present. 9 going on 10 days and close to 80 points.
Wave a and b have a fibonacci price ratio of about 50% and time ratio of about 40%.
The price fibonacci ratio of Wave a to Wave c is 8 to 13 and time ratio of 2 to 3 are both converging with the wave pattern.
All these ratios and wave patterns make for a very high probability of turn lower by at least 50 points.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p71849986109
SPY / SPX 5 Day Low Tomorrow Morning.
The bounce off this morning lows looks corrective (Zigzag)
I think the low will be followed by a rally to 1406 area which is 50% of October '07 to March '08 decline. This would be Wave 2 or Wave 2a. I prefer Wave 2a since the 1 month rally off March '08 has not taken enough time to correct the 5 month decline. More time would lull more investors into a false sense of security.
Fundamentally, things are starting to get worse again. Some banks have re-offered 12 month CDs with rates higher than the FED. That may be enough to keep things going for Wave 2c to complete in June '08. I'm looking for Wave 2c to be accompanied by a headline of "normal profit taking" as the excuse for the selling.
GOOG AH At upper channel
The after hours rally in GOOG is near the upper trend channel of the rally coming out of the March 17 lows.
Wave count for GOOG
In a WAVE 2 bounce where:
Wave A is double zigzag from March 17 to April 7
Wave B is a zigzag.
Wave C should be a zigzag. After hours and tomorrow are the zig.
Maybe 2-3 more weeks for the pattern to complete and markets head down into WAVE 3
JimQH - Wave patterns
It sounds like a triangle pattern to me. How low do you expect the May low to go?
I'm trying Hurst Cycles from a constructivist approach. I use a spreadsheet to plot the market on a graph. Then I create 5 nominal cycles. I can change their frequency, magnitude and phase to get a best fit. So far I had a 90+ corelation for the 100 trading days prior to the March low. Since then the corelation has not been so good. As I recall from previous postings, smaller cycles can end before their next longer cycle completes. That makes it challenging.
5 week low
I think the 10 and 20 day lows are close to being in on the INDU and SPX.
Chris3403 - OOPS, The market fell hard Friday.
And the futures are down this evening. I'm getting out of everything, winning or losing. I want to go to cash in the mattress, stock up on dry foods before the commodity spike hits the grocery stores, and buy things to keep my professional skills sharp during the crash. I'll build intellectual capital or a company while others are wondering what happened. Technology takes a relatively long time to learn and develop. The last 15 years tech products and services have been released with too many bugs or defects. The future consumer won't tolerate those mistakes.
The cost of software and computers, and other technology are still relatively inexpensive. After the crash they will become very expensive, or unavailable. A chicken and egg problem will develop: how does one gain technical skills if they can only get them through a company, and how does one get into a company if they don't have the technical skills. Collages won't be training enough students the next 4 to 5 years as the bond market for student loans is collapsing. Fewer companies are hiring recent grads. New hires are being downsized with the rest of the workforce. Knowledge capital will be at a premium when business does want to expand 5 to 10 years from now.
NDX - 10 and 20 day bottom in?
Wednesday there was a bottom in the last hour of trading. This was 8 days from the last low. Today there was a strong rally.
Both 10 and 20 day cycles were left translated. Does that imply anything?
End of AORD, FTSE and DAX Corrections Near
From Jan '08 to present I count the AORD, FTSE and DAX as flats. Since March 17 the bounces look very much like ending diagonals. Tonight should put the finishing touches on the pattern in AORD. Tomorrow morning the FTSE and DAX should complete their ending diagonals.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$aord&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$dax&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$ftse&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805
Bought QID
The markets are looking to make a pretty big move lower Monday, maybe retest last Monday's Bear Sterns bailout bounce. The lower lows / lower highs is foreboding.
JPM WAVE B-c Done
WAVE C down started
The rally out of the $16 area looks like a complete 5 waves. The lower trendline out of the $16 area has been broken, signalling the start of WAVE C.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=jpm&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=18&freq=9&startdate=&enddate=&hiddenTrue=&comp=Enter+Symbol%28s%29%3A&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&compind=aaaaa%7E0&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=3&optstyle=1013
JPM Wave Count
WAVE A zigzag - May '07 high to Jan '08 low.
WAVE B flat - Jan '07 low to present. There may be a little rally left in WAVE B-c, but not safe enough to play.
The beauty of this chart are the diverging channel lines from Aug '07 to March '08 created by WAVE A-b flat, WAVE A-c zag, and WAVE B flat.
WAVE C-a should start any day. The last three 10 week cycles were left translated. Maybe this one will be also.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JPM&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p47146024708
Hammy, I use barchart.com they have a screen for futures. And yes, they did show gains overnight before a strong selloff.
INDU wave count
Since Wednesday, March 12 I count a double zigzag. wave b is a triangle that completed this morning. The bounce off today's lows looks like a completed wave c.
This double zigzag consolidates / corrects the 1000 point drop that started at a the end of February. Once the double zigzag completes, a 500, 1000, 1600, 2000, or 2600 point drop should follow.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=INDU&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=18&freq=9&startdate=&enddate=&hiddenTrue=&comp=Enter+Symbol%28s%29%3A&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&compind=aaaaa%7E0&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=3&optstyle=1013
Bought DXD on Friday.
It just looked like the markets would not bounce from an announcement like BSC made.
Industrial futures down ~200.
SPX futures down ~24.
Both are below last week's lows, and challenging January lows.
BSC - Dropped From $160 to $2
Bear Stearns was just bought out / rescued by JMP for $2/Share. I believe LEH is next based on e-waves, and LEH's drop on Friday. LEH dropped 15% along BSC's nearly 50% drop. The rest of the financial companies' drops were not nearly that bad, 3-5%. C has been in the rumor spotlight more times recently than LEH and yet it fell around 6%.
STKBOY1 That clears up some confusion.
I though the borrowed Treasuries could not be sold, only used to make the bank's books look better to attract investment. Now that I understand the borrowed Treasuries may be sold, AND the FED did not just print new money, a very high value has just been placed on the dollar.
$200B Liquidity Injection
The FED just figured out how to pull money out of treasury investors and put it in the floundering banks. By pledging agency mortgage as collateral for US Treasuries, banks can sell short. This would trigger global investors to sell their US Treasuries or face losses. If banks make 10% on the $200B, its money that doesn't have to go on the government's/taxpayers' debt. Banks would then have enough to avoid margin calls. The FED could raise rates after enough of the bonds have been sold to make sure the banks covered at a profit. This could cycle a few times until the banks recapitalize, or the system crashes due to the Treasury markets drying up. This also strengthens the dollar as inflation would be perceived as being in check.
The FED and BANKS don't have much time to pull this off as this is probably wave a of bear market rally. Tomorrow is wave b down, Thursday UP wave c, Friday may top out, and the week closes for a gain.
The Elliott Wave Two Step.
Several world markets have broken below their Jan '08 lows today / evening in a series of waves 1-2 occurring over the past couple of days. A dramatic drop, more than 10% in a day, is about to take place as the powerful wave 3's unfold.
The ABX mortgage indices kept falling. Now I'm keeping my eye on the last index to fall below the 80c/$ level. Righ now tt's about 85c/$.
ABX Index CRASH!!!
There are no more ABX indices above the 90c level. The last one crashed below the 90c level with a 2% loss on the day. More pain in the credit and bond markets to continue.
Hang Seng Gaps Down
And nearly made an island reversal. What is significant is this would have been the second island reversal this month at these levels. The 6 week consolidation is probably over. The next big wave is going down.
ABX Mortgage Bond Inices Plunging.
The high priced ABX AAA index plunged about 1% lower today. It is still in the 90c range at 90.80c, but won't take much longer before it is in the 80c range. Similarly the 2 ABX indices in the 70c range are close to falling into the 60c range.
Eventually the stock markets will follow as stocks are sold to pay debt.
18 of 20 ABX Indices make new lows.
The credit markets continue to dry up.
The best AAA index gains momentum to the downside yet remains above 90c.
The other index that did not make a new low missed by a whisker.