Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

Quick E-wave SPX

Since the March '08 bottom there have been 3 segments of advance

March 17 - April 7
April 15 - May 2
May 11 - May 19

None of these waves look motive ( 5 segments)
The middle wave is not the smallest.
The last wave overlapped the first wave.
The index tagged the 200 DMA. Today it fell sharply away.

Possible outcomes

1.) Bullish: This is the end of Wave B of a WAVE 4. Wave C will test the March lows before a rally to new all-time highs.

2.) Bullish to Bearish: This is THE last rally (a truncating ending diagonal) of WAVE B from year 2003 - 2003. Expect a BLISSBULL crash scenario. March low should be retested in 2-3 weeks.

3.) Bearish: This is a Wave 2 (complex WXY) of WAVE C, of a flat which began in y2K. Gapping to the downside will take out more than 40% of the index value.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$spx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75635173805