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gokitesurf and Ransey2 - While EII supports them all, the problem, as I heard it from Steven at the SHM was that Finread was a little different, and didn't use the anticipated Longhorne/MS model for trusted computing. It's more complicated than this, but you get my drift.
Weby - If Wave's disks get pirated and copied, then what the heck are we in business for?
rosie - I can't respond to mail here.
kwduemig@optonline.net
Maybe this will bring a smile
http://www.rathergood.com/moon_song/
T123
Doma - You're right, and that may be the seat that Wave, and I believe RSA ultimately share.
T123
Barge - There is no doubt, in my mind at least, that today's utility services get integrated in with additional features and functionality into Longhorne, or whatever it ends up being called. I am also pretty convinced that there are specific reasons to allow Wave to operate as an independent, and not be over-taken by the behemouths. Here's my reasons"
1. Intel, NSM do chips and Wave can't afford to do chips
2. Microsoft does software only (or so it is perceived)
3. If this solution suite shows to have any major flaws, it's Wave's fault.
4. Need someone like Wave right now. Not only because Wave has a tried and tested product already, but also because they need the market to perceive them as including (or allowing) other players to participate in the security play. You can figure out why that is so.
5. Microsoft, HPQ, and IBM work on things together for the better-ment of their own shareholder value, but none of them trust each other well enough to allow this to be scoffed up by the other. We know what would happen then.
6. Wave has developed a very good solution
7. The future is in the secure OS, and IMO, it will be Microsoft's secure OS in the end. Yes, Wave helped invent it, but so did HPQ. Yes, because of this Wave has gotten a seat at the table, and some asurrances of success (probably) ~ owning the utility space, but in the end, it's Microsoft's OS that makes the orchestra, and it's the software embedded in their OS that will draw the most revenue in the end.
The million dollar question is who will lay claim to the TANs? IBM, HPQ, .NET or all of the above.
Snackman and others - I'll offer this up for all to refine. Someone has to start the ball rolling.
Wave Systems, Corporation (Wave) is delivering patented technologies to the client-server user community that offers improved security from the center to the edges of the user’s network. Being one of the pioneers in the development of hardware-based security solutions, Wave has evolved from its early beginnings as a security and metering silicon chipset developer to become the leading provider of seamless, trusted-computing utilities.
These utilities enable a variety of secure client-side transactional features and functionalities, while also working to ensure the integrity, privacy, transitioning, and/or recovery of the user’s trust-keys, encrypted material, documents and digital signatures. These user secrets will be hidden from unwanted attack via a TPM (Trusted Platform Module), a separate storage area set aside inside the client’s CPU used to hide these secrets.
Over time, these, and other trust utilities and services, will be upgraded and maintained via a TAN (Trust Assurance Network), a secure attestation server and key-manager designed to ensure that the user attempting to conduct a specific transaction is a trusted computer, having the appropriate keys and profile needed to complete the secure transaction.
The Embassy (EMBedded Application Security SYstem) Trust Suite of utilities and services is currently available through the Wave website (www.wave.com), and is also currently being offered as a bundled solution via the Intel D865GRM motherboard solution, and via National Semi Conductor ‘s (NSM) Safekeeper 21100. Wave is also a member of the Trusted Computing Group (TCG) formed by AMD, Compaq, HP, IBM, Intel and Microsoft: http://www.trustedcomputinggroup.org/home
This is all conjecture on my part of course
Ramsey2 - Great question!
This is why I was careful up-front to explain the enterprice PC rollout, or swap-out schedule. IT will take at least 3-years (beginning next year) to completely replace the enterprise IT-infrastructure with TPM-enabled Desktop PCs. Less for mobile PCs.
I think it's safe to assume that somewhere between now and then, TANs will be introduced for key management, user profile (repository) and permissions management, and stage-2 web-services setup.
Between now and then, I think you begin to see (as I said earlier) a significant marketing and sales campaign to the enterprise customers, and a formidable fallout campaign that helps to educate and keep the average consumer better informed.
So, let's sayover the next 3 - 12 months we see a significant TPM services software stack being pushed ~ No more stealth! At the same time, you'll begin to see this push make more holistic sense as Microsoft begins to unveil what will automatically be included in their Longhorne, NGSC solution. They'll look so eerily similar that you'll swear Wave is pulling their puppet strings, or more likely, Gates is pulling Sprague's.
Only when Microsoft speaks, it will be from the 'it's in there' position, meaning that what Wave is introducing as an introductory suite today, will already be incorporated (along with many other cool features and functionality) into the Longhorne solution. Funny thing though ~ you'll need a TAN to run Microsoft's solution, and the TPM machines will be a given to them. That's why they're coming out now. It's kind of a step-ladder approach to rolling out a whole new secure web-services paradigm shift. Any PC procurement manager who misses the boat early on TPM PCs will have egg on their face when the Managed Operations community (IBM, EDS, HP) starts to push for TANs as an absolute need, and the TPM PCs aren't already in place.
Anyway, you can now begin to see the genius of all of this. And the planning. And the reason why so many NDAs are in place. But, to answer your original question, I don't think new CD upgrades will be widely acceptable over the interim 12-months (pre-TAN sales effort). That's where the genius of all of this comes in.
Wave's download site sets Wave up as an easily accessible upgrade site (which is why we saw today's announcement). This process will be acceptable until the TANs start to get installed. This establishes Wave as the dominant, independent services security provider, and market leader in this space. IT also sets Wave apart from the hardware solution, leaving those issues and sales strategies to the chipmakers and OEMs.
Note: You begin to see why Wave could have never done this on their own.
So, while the chipmakers, hardware guys and OEMs do their thing over the next 12-months, and Wave does its thing to help escort in the new TAN era, Microsoft (orchestra leader) has set up a series of irreversable step-up generations that all lead to Longhorne on a TAN, and a bunch of connected TPM-enabled PCs. Once Microsoft is ready to unveil their genius, it is then when you will see Wave become the industry leading utility manager for secure services running on the TAN.
The TANs are need so that the Consumer market can be convinced that there is a secure, safe place to store their keys and associated permissions. That's when companies like EDS, HP, AT&T, RSA, and some others become the logical candidates to house TAN grid networks. Not only do they own the consumer, but the new services allow such a great use of the broadband world that more personal storage (possibly maintained outside of the consumer's home) is needed.
And so on, and so on, and so on.
T123
Folks - I believe that if you look at the share price trends of all of the leading chipmakers over the past 6-months, you can easily begin to see that the chipmakers are leading us out of the bear market.
I expect this last quarter to be very bullish.
T123
Ramsey2 - I think I do agree with you on the Consumer side of the equation.
T123
ASISEEIT - Enterprises looking to cut every unnecessary dollar of expense out of their operation don't work or think the same as little ol' you.
The enterpise architecture business has'nt been an early-adopter user community since the Y2K bubble, and weren't prior to that either. I appluad the strategy for adoption that is being employed in the enterprise arena, but don't suspect the behaviors to be the same as in the consumer market segment.
By the time Wave-like services become commonplace to consumers like the both of us, they'll be many more web-services available that we'll absolutely have to have than what Wave is offering today.
Although - It's people like you (and me) that allows Wave to charge $40 for a suite of preliminary services too. Expect some price erosion over time, or this to become a free consumer offering as other (more cool) web-services emerge from Barge's development sweat-shop.
T123
lugan - your suit might do you some good, but the suite doesn't
: )
T123
Thanks to all of you for your responses.
As you may, or may not know, I am in this industry, and have worked with those who make large enterprise PC purchases. The traditional strategy in 'large' enterprises is to replace a percentage of your PCs each year so that the expense is not all at once. So, if we pick the 33% of all PCs number, that means it takes 3-years for all PCs in an enterprise to be replaced.
Second to that, the more traditional approach to sales within these enterprises, usually starts with topics (like Security) showing up in Gartner studies, or Meta studies, followed by webinars offered by each (or others) educating the enterprise consumer on the issues, what's available in the marketplace, and how it's used. This allows the enterpise customer/prospect to formulate questions, build some support or justification for future purchases, or simply to know who to contact to find out more about a topic of interest. All of this usually culminates in a sales call, and a more personal demo of the product and its supporting software stack.
I believe that Wave has just now successfully crossed the chasm as it relates to the primary and secondary box makers. They now realize that the TPM PCs they're making need services, and that Wave is uniquely positioned to offer these services. That's why Wave is 'In the Box' as Steven says. Which is absolutely a fabulous accomplishment, and no small feat as we all know.
But to me, that means the second phase now begins. Now that they're in the box, they need to begin the marketing/education campaign, create/offer webinars and make sure that an educated sales force is ready to sell the aspects of TPM that those in control want sold.
I absolutely believe that Wave is one of the things that everyone wants used. I absolutely believe that all of what I explained will happen in the sequence that I've explained it. And, I believe that IBM will have a great deal of success getting existing TPM users to use Wave ~ in part because many of the TPM users work in managed operations contracted to IBM. That makes it a lot easier.
As I follow the progression of Wave, I watch for the logical progression of the industry as an adopter. I can see (in my judgement) where Wave is on that roadmap, and the one thing that I can tell you is that I believe that this is going to be every bit as huge as we all think it's going to be. We know we're in the box. We have seen all of the pre-cursor articles on security, web-services, and alike as an unmet need in the industry.
All I'm saying is the next step (to me) is that we begin to see more and more publicity reagrding secure services ~ as we are beginning to see, followed by webinars, and so on on these (Wave's) specific uses. We haven't seen that yet, but I suspect we will begin to shortly.
So what am I really saying? Well, I think that I'm saying that TPM sales into the marketplace is already a predictable (although accellerat-able) given, now that secondary box-maker adoption has occurred. What I think I'm also saying is that over the next several months we should begin to see the actual need, value and use of these (Wave) services clarified/pushed much more publicly, so that when the reps come to call, everyone already kinda knows what these services are all about.
In other words, I'm saying that stealth, won't be stealth very much longer. The best way to ensure quiet (but ubiquitous) TPM adoption, is to market the heck out of the must-have services that run on them, allowing those 'smart consumers' (like me :) that Packstater eludes to, to make the TPM decision a given, because the only way they get these great services is by owning TPM machines. That's why I think the education phase is just now beginning.
Of course, you may disagree, but that's what makes us so great together! My guess, the IBM, HP, NEC blitz is about to begin, and has to happen, whether the consumer is a genius or not!
Tampa123
While I too would pay for the Wave services, if I were not the avid Wave follower that I am, I still don't see (or get) how everyone who will own a TPM will be educated enough not only enable (activate) the services, but use them. Not that they're not smart enough ~ certainly many will be. But I just don't see the education component as a stand-out offering.
I guess if I'm smart enough to buy TPM computers, I ought to know why I'm buying them. But if I don't, who's out there (besides me seeing the disk included with user guides) educating me on why I definitely need to load and use this software?
That's where I believe IBM will do well, because they have large Managed Operations contracts, so it's their own people who will maintain the TAN, and educate their users real time. HPQ could even improve their position in the Managed Operations space, by connecting the secure PC (something they already have market share in) to the secure Managed Operation environment in ways that help to significantly reduce Total Cost of Ownership.
Quite a challenge!
I predict an IBM announcement is coming soon. If the product is already bundled in the Intel and NSM offerring, and HP hasn't really gotten as far as IBM yet as far as TPM deployment, then this PR looks (on the surface) as though it's intended for IBM's existing TPM user audience. They wouldn't read this PR, or have any reason to read this PR on their own, so I would have to guess that some other event of related significance is pending.
Who knows ~ it could be something related to HP also, but my guess would be IBM.
Just trying to have some fun and try to make sense out of the PR
T123
okay - I have a question
This may seem like a dumb question, but I really don't know who this latest PR from Wave is intended to reach. I'll assume a small part of the PR is for us shareholders to be kept aware of certain events as they unfold, but who else would be interested in this PR?
What is going on behind the scenes that would make this PR significant to anyone?
T123
Broadcom launching BCM5751M TPM
you may have seen this already!
http://www.broadcom.com/press/article.php?pr_id=PR031021-2
Broadcom Revolutionizes LAN Communications by Introducing the World's First PCI Express™ Gigabit Ethernet Controllers for Server, Desktop and Mobile PCs
Seventh Generation NetXtreme™ MAC, PHY and Software Technology Enables the Next Generation of High-Performance, Smaller Form Factor Computing Platforms
IRVINE, Calif. – October 21, 2003 – Broadcom Corporation (Nasdaq: BRCM), a leading provider of silicon solutions enabling broadband communications, today announced the availability of a new family of Broadcom® NetXtreme™ Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) controllers that implement the advanced PCI Express™ host interface. Announced today are the BCM5721, BCM5751 and BCM5751M, which have been designed specifically for use in server, desktop and mobile PCs, respectively. They represent the world's first and only GbE controllers to support the PCI Express specification.
For the past 10 years, the PCI bus architecture has been ubiquitously deployed as a system I/O interconnect technology. However, as processors, memory and other devices in the PC scale to increasingly faster speeds, it has become necessary for interconnect technology to advance as well. PCI Express is an advanced version of the current PCI bus that provides a standards-based, high-speed, low pin count, chip-to-chip interface for computing platforms. Rather than utilizing a shared, parallel bus structure such as with PCI or AGP, PCI Express provides a new architecture whereby each link is a serial communications channel comprised of two differential wire pairs that provide 2.5 Gigabits per second (Gbps) of throughput in each direction. The new standard is the natural evolution of the AGP, PCI and PCI-X standards used today. Its low pin count enables a new generation of small form factor computing devices through smaller motherboards, while its speed capabilities reduce bottlenecks typically associated with current PCI and AGP solutions.
"As enterprise servers and clients migrate to increasingly faster Ethernet speeds, PCI Express allows the LAN connection architecture to scale with the end-users' throughput requirements. The BCM5721, BCM5751 and BCM5751M are the industry's first and only Gigabit Ethernet controllers designed specifically to address the needs of today's high-performance computing platforms," said Thomas Lagatta, Group Vice President for Broadcom's Enterprise Computing Group. "Based on our SerDes expertise and six prior generations of field-proven NetXtreme technology, this new family of GbE controllers is the most advanced GbE solution in the market today."
"Gigabit Ethernet has become the mainstream LAN technology used throughout the business world today," said Sean Lavey, Semiconductor Program Manager for IDC. "We expect the support for PCI Express within GbE controllers will accelerate this adoption as it enables new types of PC and server form factors while dramatically increasing network performance."
The BCM5721 for High Performance Servers
Broadcom's new NetXtreme BCM5721 GbE controller is targeted at server platforms. Combining innovative performance enhancements with a PCI Express 1x host interface, the BCM5721 enables 2 Gbps throughput for the most demanding server applications. To reduce the total cost of server ownership, the BCM5721 supports the Intelligent Platform Management Interface (IPMI) 1.5 manageability standard that allows servers to be remotely managed. The BCM5721 also incorporates the industry's most advanced server software (the Broadcom Advanced Server Program or BASP) which offers several innovative teaming functions not available from any other GbE controller solution.
The BCM5751 for Desktop and Workstation PCs
Broadcom's BCM5751 is designed for use with desktop and workstation PCs and has been optimized to provide the industry's best price and performance combination. The BCM5751 provides significant advances in client manageability by adding support for the Alerting Standards Forum (ASF) 2.0 specification. This provides IT professionals with automatic alerts when support issues occur and allows them to remotely address these concerns.
The BCM5751M for Mobile PCs
Broadcom's BCM5751M GbE controller has been optimized for the tight space constraints of mobile PCs, enabling the industry's smallest footprint. In addition, the BCM5751M can sense how the mobile PC is being utilized and will reduce the power down to the lowest level necessary for that usage. Whether docked or mobile, transmitting data or not, the BCM5751M's advanced power management logic provides six power-down modes to always use the lowest power possible, extending battery life. Through an integrated Trusted Platform Module (TPM), the BCM5751M also includes support for the Trusted Computing Group 1.1b specification, offering security features and strong authentication to protect corporate information from attack.
Additional Product Information
Built upon six generations of field-proven Gigabit Ethernet media access controller (MAC) and physical layer (PHY) transceiver technology, the BCM5721, BCM5751 and BCM5751M utilize a fully integrated 10/100/1000BASE-T Gigabit Ethernet MAC, PCI Express bus interface, on-chip buffer memory, and integrated PHY in a single-chip solution designed specifically for LAN on motherboard (LOM) and network interface card (NIC) applications. These three chips are fabricated in a low-voltage, 0.13-micron CMOS process that provides low power consumption.
The three new devices include a comprehensive software suite offering a complete solution for client and server applications, including drivers for all popular operating systems. The NetXtreme architecture also features a unique processor-based design, enabling advanced management software to run in firmware so it can be remotely upgraded via simple downloads.
Broadcom's new family of NetXtreme PCI Express controllers complement the company's Gigabit Ethernet networking product portfolio that includes switching solutions, transceivers, and security processors for servers, workstations, desktops and mobile PCs, providing the industry's most comprehensive portfolio of Gigabit Ethernet solutions. Broadcom's Gigabit Ethernet solutions are the most widely deployed and field-proven in the industry.
Availability and Pricing
The BCM5721, BCM5751 and BCM5751M are currently sampling to customers, and have already been chosen for numerous high-volume platform designs. Each of these devices utilizes a 15 mm x 15 mm, 196-pin package. Pricing is available upon request.
About Broadcom
Broadcom Corporation is a leading provider of highly integrated silicon solutions that enable broadband communications and networking of voice, video and data services. Using proprietary technologies and advanced design methodologies, Broadcom designs, develops and supplies complete system-on-a-chip solutions and related hardware and software applications for every major broadband communications market. Our diverse product portfolio includes solutions for digital cable and satellite set-top boxes; cable and DSL modems and residential gateways; high-speed transmission and switching for local, metropolitan, wide area and storage networking; home and wireless networking; cellular and terrestrial wireless communications; Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) gateway and telephony systems; broadband network processors; and SystemI/O™ server solutions. These technologies and products support our core mission: Connecting everything®.
Broadcom is headquartered in Irvine, Calif., and may be contacted at 1-949-450-8700 or at www.broadcom.com.
Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995:
All statements included or incorporated by reference in this release, other than statements or characterizations of historical fact, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations, estimates and projections about our industry, management's beliefs, and certain assumptions made by us, all of which are subject to change. Forward-looking statements can often be identified by words such as "anticipates," "expects," "intends," "plans," "predicts," "believes," "seeks," "estimates," "may," "will," "should," "would," "could," "potential," "continue," similar expressions, and variations or negatives of these words. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results and are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially and adversely from those expressed in any forward-looking statement.
Important factors that may cause such a difference for Broadcom in connection with its BCM5721, BCM5751, BCM5751M and other NetXtreme GbE controller products include, but are not limited to, general economic and political conditions and specific conditions in the markets we address, including the continuing significant economic slowdown and volatility in the technology sector and semiconductor industry, trends in the broadband communications markets in various geographic regions, and possible disruption in commercial activities related to terrorist activity or armed conflict in the United States and other locations; the rate at which our present and future customers and end-users adopt Broadcom's technologies and products in the markets for enterprise networking applications; delays in the adoption and acceptance of industry standards in those markets; competitive pressures and other factors such as the qualification, availability and pricing of competing products and technologies and the resulting effects on sales and pricing of our products; our ability to retain and hire key executives, technical personnel and other employees in the numbers, with the capabilities, and at the compensation levels needed to implement our business and product plans; the availability and pricing of third party semiconductor foundry and assembly capacity and raw materials; fluctuations in the manufacturing yields of our third party semiconductor foundries and other problems or delays in the fabrication, assembly, testing or delivery of our products; the risks of producing products with new suppliers and at new fabrication and assembly facilities; the timing, rescheduling or cancellation of significant customer orders and our ability, as well as the availability of our customers, to manage their inventory; the loss of a key customer; our ability to specify, develop or acquire, complete, introduce, market and transition to volume production new products and technologies in a timely manner; the timing of customer-industry qualification and certification of our products and the risks of non-qualification or non-certification; the volume of our product sales and pricing concessions on volume sales; the effects of new and emerging technologies; changes in our product or customer mix; intellectual property disputes and customer indemnification claims and other types of litigation risk; problems or delays that we may face in shifting our products to smaller geometry process technologies and in achieving higher levels of design integration; the quality of our products and any remediation costs; the effectiveness of our expense and product cost control and reduction efforts; the risks and uncertainties associated with our international operations, particularly in light of recent events; the effects of natural disasters, public health emergencies, international conflicts and other events beyond our control; the level of orders received that can be shipped in a fiscal quarter; and other factors.
Our Annual Report on Form 10-K, subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, recent Current Reports on Form 8-K, and other Securities and Exchange Commission filings discuss the foregoing risks as well as other important risk factors that could contribute to such differences or otherwise affect our business, results of operations and financial condition. The forward-looking statements in this release speak only as of this date. We undertake no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statement for any reason.
Broadcom®, the pulse logo, Connecting everything®, NetXtreme™, and SystemI/O™ are trademarks of Broadcom Corporation and/or its affiliates in the United States and certain other countries. PCI Express™ is a trademark of PCI-SIG. All other trademarks mentioned are the property of their respective owners.
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No Not yet it's not positive.
2004riptide - I'm suggesting better protection of the only secure U.S. IP solution. Of course, Wave's still involved in my mind's solution. Maximus provides the strength of balance sheet and relationships.
No trumping --- stregthening balance sheets through mergers and acquisitions. Just a guess of course. But all surviving relationships would remain intact.
Another pdf saying ST Micro has joined the TPM supplier frey
http://www.intel.com/idf/us/spr2003/presentations/S03USSFCS68_OS.pdf
Another ST Micro/Intel TPM pdf
http://www.intel.com/idf/us/spr2003/presentations/S03USSFCS68_OS.pdf
2004riptide - maybe Maximus is intersted in having the only secure U.S. smartcard solution
T123
Logan - I'm not so sure that we're going to see a major push for this board in the public eye. Don't get me wrong here, I'd love nothing more than to see every commercial that Intel, NSM and others put out be about security, the TPM, etc.
But, one has to consider the benefits of maintaining an aggressive (stealth) back-office marketing/sales strategy, while low-keying the types of PRs that would add fuel (too early) to the fire of those un-educated advocates of a free web. I believe this is why they are focusing on the enterprise clients first anyway.
My guess (and only a guess) is that they (Intel, NSM, Microsoft, IBM) want to: get as many TPMs out in the IT-enterpise business marketplace as quickly as possible; show off the easy-to-use, secure services that Wave can offer, get people to use them, and make them want more of them; and as the services mature, they become services that an individual would also want to have in their home computer, and so on, and so on......
As many of us have in the past, we would like nothing more than to see Intel, NSM, IBM, and then Microsoft PR the heck out of this solution, but history has not demonstrated this approach will be executed at all. Perhaps when Microsoft is ready, we'll see this, but I am guessing that we won't see as much PR as we'd like over the next couple of quarters.
That is why DD has again become important. We must again find our own news and connections of the dots. Only this time, the dots will actually be re-surfacing with a tangible purpose.
Of course, I could be wrong, and I'm sure that Intel will market TPM PCs in the public eye also. I just don't think the message will always be what we'd like it to be.
T123
Snackman - Welcome Back! Try to keep that relaxed feeling of being on vacation for as long as you can.
Weby0 - I like the Oz pic my friend.
Best Regards,
Tampa123
Sorry about 15061. IT didn't post right.
Russian? D865GRH, LaGrande, Wave, TPM
http://www.price.od.ua/news.phtml?id_r=2
Anyone speak Russian - Legrande, Wavx, D865GRH, etc.
24.10.2003
Системные платы Интел с модулем безопасности
Компания Интел делает очередной шаг в продвижении своей технологии обеспечения безопасности LaGrande (см. статью об этой технологии на нашем сайте). Несмотря на планы компании начать внедрение LaGrande с серверов и рабочих станций, компания уже вводит ее элементы в системные платы для настольных систем. Интел сообщает, что уже на следующей неделе выйдет системная плата с модулем Trusted Platform Module (TPM), который обеспечивает аппаратную защиту цифровых подписей, ключей и зашифрованных данных. Компания уверяет, что TPM позволит уберечь важные данные от хакеров и "любопытных глаз". Чип включает лицензированную систему от Wave Systems, известную как Embassy Suite. Она обеспечивает ограничение доступа к областям, в которых хранятся конфиденциальные данные пользователя. Информация защищается благодаря аппаратной кодировке с помощью 128-разрядного ключа. Интел считает, что хоть это и не самый совершенный способ защиты, но шаг на пути к совершенству.
TPM появится на рынке через неделю в материнских платах D865GRH для настольных систем.
Источник: Stolica
Instead of guessing this way, you should all be guessing based on earnings per share ~ which is now negative.
Without doing the math (although others can), Wave will get a bump from here when EPS is less negative, zero and rising, and then will perform from there based on guidance and earnings. Depending on how predictable Steven's future forecasts will become in all of the possible areas of deployment that even we haven't seen come to fruition yet, will go a long way in determining our stock value, and multiple.
Again, without doing the math, if Steven can predict 24 - 36 million in 2005, then when it looks like he's tracking towards that you'll see shareholder value run out in front of revenues IMO. So, I feel pretty good about our outlook either way.
T123
cmf - RIGHT!
Oh - and Nelzoni ~ I have plenty of people waiting to confess to you that want in on the bet too, so you best start cloning more of you.
T123
Nelz, No way ~ Because I now want you to win. So why would I bet against you? But, just to mark the moment, how about we agree to have an adult beverage together at the next shareholders meeting, and discuss who the better prognosticator was (or is)?
T123
Interesting Spear Report eh? Wave Recommended
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Now is the time to invest in security stocks.
Take the time to read this email and I guarantee you will learn about several high-performing companies that you've never heard of before. And you will be so impressed with what they are doing that you may end up buying them immediately.
The technology-focused security industry is one of the few genuine growth sectors of our economy - not just for the short-term but for years to come. Spear's Security Industry Analyst (SSIA) is the ONLY financial newsletter to specialize in these fast-growing companies.
What's Fueling This Growth?
In response to the events of September 11, Congress appropriated a $40 billion Emergency Response Fund to address the security needs of the nation. A total of $10.6 billion was dedicated to homeland security.
This was ONLY the beginning! With the passage of the Homeland Security Bill last November, billions more dollars are being invested to protect the world's homes, food supply, mail service, airlines, data and people.
Investors are just beginning to comprehend the ripple effects on the world economy. Few realize that these events have launched an entirely new industry, one that is not a quickly-passing phenomenon.
Do NOT be fooled. The companies that will see the most growth as a result of the billions spent in this area are NOT the dinosaurs of defense contracting but the small and innovative companies who offer break-through products or services that most of us can't even imagine.
The development of this industry reminds me of the early days of the tech boom. Long before Microsoft, Oracle and Cisco were household names, they were small companies with grand ideas, innovative products, and a large but relatively unrecognized market waiting to consume their paradigm-shifting products and spur the technology boom of the 1990s.
The security industry is poised to explode into one of the fastest growing industries of this decade.
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Spear's Security Industry Analyst (SSIA) is the most advanced analysis available today of the entire security industry. We cover all eight areas of security services and products. You CAN'T get this invaluable information anywhere else, and you SHOULDN'T be without it if you are investing in the post-9/11 stock market.
We KNOW this industry. Take a look at these results.
On July 31, 2003 we sent out a trading alert and told our readers to buy WAVX at $1.46.
On August 1, we told them to sell WAVX at $4.23.
Readers who acted on our advice recorded a gain of
190% in one day!!
We KNOW this industry. Our performance proves it, over and over again!
We just told you about Wave Systems (WAVX)- an astounding return, and certainly not a normal one, even for us. However, on a very regular basis, the companies we recommend deliver very strong gains in a very short period of time. For instance:
We bought Socket Industries (SCKT) on July 30 at $2.82. On July 31, it closed at $3.35, a return of nearly 19% in JUST ONE DAY.
We bought Hollis Eden Pharmaceuticals (HEPH) on May 19, 2003, at $8.75. As of June 10, it was at $13.85 -- a GAIN of 58% in only three weeks!
On May 28, 2003, we bought Veridian (VNX) at $23.99. It shot up +44%, and as of June 10, was at $34.71.
We bought Bio-Ref Labs (BRLI) on October 20, 2003, at $12.50. As of the close on October 21, it was at $13.80 --a GAIN of 10.4% in JUST ONE DAY!
From March 18 - October 21, AVAN went up 150%! We're still holding on to AVAN because we think it has a lot further to go!
Does your trading record look like this one?
We don't promise that our performance is this fabulous every single month, but we do promise that you will learn about companies you've never heard of before, making products you never even knew existed, and that many of these companies will go on to see tremendous growth in the marketplace.
Now, you can try this exclusive stock investing service free for 30 days. We can extend you this great offer because we are confident you will recognize the quality of our analysis and the performance potential of our A-list stocks. These companies are in the "sweet spot" of the market right now - public and private monies are pouring into their research and development divisions, and contracts are being signed every day to purchase their innovative products.
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A New Investing Climate
If you are an investor in the post-9/11 stock market, you MUST understand how the new security industry works and realize the profit opportunities available. And nowhere - absolutely no other newsletter or investment source - brings you the inside story on this entire industry like Spears Security Industry Analyst.
We divide this critical new industry into eight key areas - all of which we cover in-depth:
Biometrics
Data and Internet security
Biological and chemical defense
Scanning
Teleconferencing/telecommuting
General security products and services
Select government and defense contractors
Alternative energy technology
Within each segment of this growing industry, we track the best companies. These companies have ground-breaking, innovative products and services that are not limited to homeland defense, but certainly benefit greatly from the enormous amount of money being spent in that area.
For instance, in our September issue, SSIA subscribers learned about Taser International(TASR). Here's what we said at the time.
Excerpt on Taser (TASR) from September SSIA issue:
Taser (TASR), PE 242, Market Cap $83 million
TASER International sells non-lethal shock devices primarily for use in the law enforcement and corrections market. The devices use compressed nitrogen to shoot two small, electrified probes up to a maximum distance of 21 feet. After firing, the probes remain connected to the weapon by high-voltage insulated wires that transmit electrical pulses into the target. These electrical pulses temporarily overwhelm the normal electrical signals within the body's nerve fibers, impairing subjects' ability to control their bodies or perform coordinated actions.
There is a movement toward the expanded use of non-lethal weapons in law enforcement and security work due to burgeoning wrongful-death lawsuits. A great many deaths caused by police officers in the line of duty involve individuals who are diagnosed with mental illness of one sort or another. These deaths are easily preventable and municipalities are recognizing this. Municipal liability insurance premiums are rising and need to be actively managed, especially given budget constraints. Airlines are also interested in the weapons due to the risk of firing bullets inside a plane. This gives us the overlap between commercial and government interests that we like to see in an SSIA stock.
As of June 30, 2003, there were 2,700 departments deploying or testing Taser weapon systems, representing more than 17% of the law enforcement agencies across the United States. The company also has pilot programs running in the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and Germany. At that time, more than 600 government agencies were in the process of evaluating their products for implementation, an increase of 200% over the same time last year.
In June the company also acquired the assets of Taser Technologies and Electronic Medical Laboratory (dba Tasertron), which was their only significant competitor in the law enforcement market space. This purchase provided the company with clear title to the TASER Trademark, and a number of patents, eliminated litigation and market confusion, and enabled them to enter into a partnership with General Dynamics. TASR has a high PE (price-to-earnings ratio). In July they were growing revenues at a 50% clip and earnings were growing 300%. We expect that trend will continue.
Since we alerted our subscribers to TASR on September 17, the stock has gone up over 93%! We told our readers to buy TASR at $28.50 and as we go to press today (10/23), the stock just hit $55.00!! Amazing.
This profile of TASR is just a small sample of the kind of thoughtful, detailed analysis you can expect in every monthly issue of Spear's Security Industry Analyst. We can't promise you those kinds of spectacular returns on every stock we recommend, but you can see, just from the few results we've quoted here, that these stocks are moving up.
And now, you can try this exclusive stock investing service free for 30 days. Just try it and see if you arent convinced that some of these companies will grow exponentially due to the billions - yes, billions - of dollars entering this market.
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Be Smart. Be Prepared. Profit from Your Preparation.
I know I told you before, but I have to say it again. We KNOW this industry. We've been tracking these stocks for a year and they are MOVING UP NOW. Our Spears Security Industry Analyst subscribers have been ready for this move and have used our guidance to profit from it.
For instance, Avant (AVAN), has been a long-term hold in the SSIA portfolio. For many months we have held steadfast in our belief that Avant is one of the best bio-threat plays on the market. AVANT Immunotherapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company that uses novel applications of immunology to prevent and treat diseases. The company is developing a broad portfolio of vaccines addressing a wide range of applications.
Avant was not an overnight rocket shot. We knew it was good when we recommended it on March 18, and we held it, even when it sat there and did nothing. We knew its potential and we waited patiently for the market to recognize it. As of October 21, Avant was up 150% - and we still like it.
Sometimes, we aren't so patient. Take Microvision (MVIS), for example, a top-performer that we've now downgraded to our B-list. We first recommended MVIS on November 21, 2003 and held it until January 7. And we booked a 33% return! In just six weeks!
But why, you ask, did we downgrade such a great performer?
Because we tell you when to buy and when to SELL, so you take profits and get out. The idea is to KEEP what you make and then make more with our timely A-list buys.
As you can see, this is a very hot and very promising industry to follow starting TODAY. I can help you do that.
My team and I strive to take the speculation out of investing in this sector by looking deep into the fundamentals of these companies and the prospects of their innovative concepts in the marketplace. In addition, our focus on this sector means that we understand where the market is going, where emphasis is being placed, and where contracts are being awarded. This focus provides you with an insiders knowledge of the critical developments in this high-growth area.
You can receive all of this intelligence at absolutely no charge, no obligation for 30 days just by trying Spears Security Industry Analyst.
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Wealth of Analysis and Coverage in Your Risk-Free Subscription
In each issue, my staff and I prepare the most concise and informative report you can find on the ins and outs of this new and highly dynamic group of companies. Our analysis is always independent and objective so that we can provide you, the investor, with the best investment information available on what may be the most significant growth area of our economy in the years ahead.
Specifically, you will receive:
Monthly in-depth analysis of the security industry
Regular updates to keep you on top of the market
Timely research, focused commentary.
Immediate online access to all previous issues
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Now is the time to recoup your losses. Spear's Security Industry Analyst can help you do that. Click here now to sign-up for your RISK-FREE trial subscription..
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Thank you for your time today.
Sincerely,
Gregory Spear
Publisher
Spears Security Industry Analyst
We are completely independent of the advisors we monitor and have no relationship with any of companies whose stocks we recommend. Officers of Spear Holdings, Inc, Independent Investor, Inc, or Spear Capital Management, Inc., or employees, subscribers and clients may own shares in the stocks recommended. Stock recommendations in Spear's Security Industry Analyst and in this excerpt are made without reference to your financial situation, investing time horizon or risk-tolerance and may not be appropriate for all investors. All stock market investing involves risk, including the risk of loss of all your capital. Consult a financial professional before investing in these or any other stock recommendations. Spear's Security Industry Analyst has been published since 2001 by Independent Investor, Inc. 2558 Albany Avenue, West Hartford, CT 06117. To order, call 1-800-491-7119. Copyright 2003. All rights reserved.
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Mannomur - I guess a Simple Random sample like this, will now allow you to calculate the mean and the standard deviation, and you should be able to come up with your connection to Kevin Bacon somewhere along the way too!
T123
mannomur2 - My opinion ...
Worst case my feeling is 1.5 years to reach $20 ~ This opinion is simply based on slog history, and a conservative adoptions schedule.
Best Case my feeling is 6-8 months ~ primarily because a great deal needs to fall into place (i.e. another round of financing, OEM-TPM marketing Campaign, revenue trialing sales, etc.)
Absolute Immediate Case - If a Microsoft announcement ties Wave directly to their plans, in advance.
My actual prediction - June 8, 2004
Hope you realize that this is all just a guess, and that your guesses are as good as anyone elses on this board.
Can you clone my investment?
T123
mannomur2 - My opinion ...
Worst case my feeling is 1.5 years to reach $20 ~ This opinion is simply based on slog history, and a conservative adoptions schedule.
Best Case my feeling is 6-8 months ~ primarily because a great deal needs to fall into place (i.e. another round of financing, OEM-TPM marketing Campaign, revenue trialing sales, etc.)
Absolute Immediate Case - If a Microsoft announcement ties Wave directly to their plans, in advance.
My actual prediction - June 8, 2004
Hope you realize that this is all just a guess, and that your guesses are as good as anyone elses on this board.
Can you clone my investment?
T123
mannomur2 - My opinion ...
Worst case my feeling is 1.5 years to reach $20 ~ This opinion is simply based on slog history, and a conservative adoptions schedule.
Best Case my feeling is 6-8 months ~ primarily because a great deal needs to fall into place (i.e. another round of financing, OEM-TPM marketing Campaign, revenue trialing sales, etc.)
Absolute Immediate Case - If a Microsoft announcement ties Wave directly to their plans, in advance.
My actual prediction - June 8, 2004
Hope you realize that this is all just a guess, and that your guesses are as good as anyone elses on this board.
Can you clone my investment?
T123
Doma - I thought you'd like that.
I'd like to have my business plan already completed before I go speak to any of them.