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I'm a mod but don't know how to delete my own post!! It is pretty funny!
I'm finally done work and will see if I can do it ... wish my luck!
AXPW - I was looking at that too. Wasn't there something about executive salaries being quite excessive ... I forget now!
Significance Test.
Smooth a big thanks for the link ... not sure if slide #21 is new information, but -- if so -- it would explain the excitement.
Does anyone know what SAE means? (Survival after enrolment?).
http://www.advaxis.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/OneMedForum-ADXS-Presentation.pdf
I ran the results through a calculator and the p-value is very low at .0032 ... which is a good thing! This means that the chances of getting this result (or better) by random chance is 0.3% ... thus the result does not seem to be random. I don't know the alpha/cutoff value normally used in clinical trials, but anything less than 5% is quite good in my books.
For reference, here is the calculator and the numbers I used. (I'd be thankful for anyone to double-check the numbers.)
http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_hypothesisprop2.wasp
sample size 70
proportion .33 (trial result)
null hypothesis .20 (survival expected without treatment)
type 1 error .05 (this is used to accept/reject the hypothesis and is not used for evaluating, not calculating, the p-value).
Note: this calculator uses normal approximation which is not fully accurate for testing proportions but should be close enough ... if/when I have some time, I'll run it the correct way and verify the result.
ADXS Significance Test
(S*@t ... this is the third time I've typed this email after closing the window twice by mistake, which happens when you try to do a table and hit tab and enter ... still have to get stuff done for work.)
Anyway, the results from slide #21 look VERY good ... not sure if these are new numbers, but -- if so -- it would explain the spike.
Does anyone know what SAE means? (Survival after enrolment?).
http://www.advaxis.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/OneMedForum-ADXS-Presentation.pdf
I ran the results through a calculator and the p-value is very low at .0032 ... which is a good thing! This means that the chances of getting this good result (or better) by random chance is 0.3% ... thus the result does not seem to be random. I don't know the alpha/cutoff value normally used in clinical trials, but anything less than 5% is quite good in my books.
For reference, here is the calculator and the numbers I used.
http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_hypothesisprop2.wasp
sample size 70
proportion .33 (trial result)
null hypothesis .20 (survival expected without treatment)
type 1 error .05 (this is used to accept/reject the hypothesis and is not used for evaluating, not calculating, the p-value).
Note: this calculator appears to use normal approximation which is not fully accurate for testing proportions but should be close enough ... if/when I have some time, I'll run it the correct way and verify the result.
If $2.50 is the worst-case scenario, that's a pretty good risk/reward @ $2.80 ... I'm definately holding my shares!!
"Top stocks on the move"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-stocks-move-vumee-inc-140000030.html
Advaxis Inc. (ADXS) is another company seeing a pop after presenting at a conference. Advaxis presented at the 6th Annual One Med Forum on January 8th in San Francisco. Advaxis is working towards developing the next generation of immunotherapies for cancer and infectious diseases.
Advaxis Inc. gained 70% in two days after presenting at the conference.
Read the entire press release issued by Advaxis Inc. (ADXS) here: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/advaxis-present-6th-annual-onemedforum-132500041.html
ADXS 42%!!! Something has leaked out and its good!!!
Makes up for when I bought NBY only to see the announcement of dilution 10 minutes later!!
I've mentioned HURC enough already (haven't I said before I love to heat a dead horse) but I see it as a 'safe' double the next year or two (without too much downside risk).
ADXS - fantastic price increase. I think even more important is that the volume has increased substantially the last many weeks ... looks like someone knows something about results and/or partnership!
Very good earnings!!!!
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55804411&symbol=HURC
Hurco Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Results
Hurco (NASDAQ:HURC)
Intraday Stock Chart
Today : Friday 11 January 2013
Hurco Companies, Inc., (Nasdaq:HURC) today reported results for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year ended October 31, 2012. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012, Hurco recorded net income of $4,086,000, or $0.63 per diluted share, as compared to net income of $2,654,000, or $0.41 per diluted share, for the corresponding period in fiscal 2011. For the full fiscal year 2012, Hurco recorded net income of $15,638,000, or $2.40 per diluted share, as compared to net income of $11,124,000, or $1.71 per diluted share, for fiscal 2011.
Sales and service fees for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012 were $56,067,000, an increase of $7,496,000, or 15%, from the prior year period. This quarter-over-quarter improvement is net of the adverse impact of $2,087,000, or 4%, in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012, due to a weaker Euro when translating foreign sales to U.S. Dollars for financial reporting purposes. Sales and service fees for the full fiscal year totaled $203,117,000, an increase of $22,716,000, or 13%, from fiscal 2011. The unfavorable impact of currency translation on the full fiscal year-over-year comparison was $7,609,000, or 4%.
The following table sets forth net sales and service fees by geographic region for the quarter and fiscal year ending October 31, 2012 and 2011 (in thousands), respectively:
\
Net Sales and Service Fees by Geographic Region
\
The fourth quarter increase in sales was driven by increased demand in North America and Europe. The 8% increase in Europe was actually 15% when adjusted to exclude the negative impact of foreign currency translation due to a weaker Euro. Compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011, unit shipments for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012 increased in North America by 33%, in Europe by 13%, and in Asia Pacific by 12%. For the full fiscal year, sales increased in all regions, driven by higher customer demand. Unit shipments for the full year 2012, compared to fiscal 2011, increased in North America by 14%, in Europe by 4% and in Asia Pacific by 16%.
The following table sets forth new orders booked by geographic region for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ending October 31, 2012 and 2011 (in thousands), respectively:
/
Orders by Geographic Region
/
Quarter Ended
October 31,
Fiscal Year Ended
October 31,
2012
2011
%
Change
2012
2011
%
Change
North America
$ 20,398
$ 13,365
53%
$ 61,644
$ 50,058
23%
Europe
27,745
22,614
23%
115,222
121,274
-5%
Asia Pacific
3,674
4,324
-15%
21,271
25,651
-17%
Total
$ 51,817
$ 40,303
29%
$198,137
$ 196,983
1%
During the fourth quarter of 2012, orders increased in North America and Europe due to favorable market conditions. We experienced increased orders in North America, following our successful showing at the International Manufacturing Technology Show (IMTS) in Chicago where we launched our rebranding initiative and new line of high speed machines. We experienced a decline in order activity in Asia where industrial activity has been slowing. Compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011, unit orders for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012 increased in North America by 54% and in Europe by 22%, but decreased in Asia Pacific by 9%. During the full fiscal year 2012, orders remained relatively consistent with the prior fiscal year. Unit orders for the fiscal year 2012 compared to fiscal 2011 increased in North America by 22%, but decreased in Europe by 9% and in Asia Pacific by 22%. The impact of currency translation on orders booked in the fourth quarter and full fiscal year was consistent with the impact on sales.
Hurco's fourth quarter gross profit was $17,220,000, or 31% of sales, compared to $15,682,000, or 32% of sales, for the prior year period. For the full fiscal year 2012, gross profit was $63,181,000, or 31% of sales, compared to $55,874,000, or 31% of sales, for fiscal 2011. The increase in gross profit for the fourth quarter and the year was due primarily to the increase in sales.
Selling, general and administrative expenses for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012 were $11,870,000, an increase of $778,000, or 7%, from the corresponding period in 2011. Selling, general and administrative expenses were $41,160,000 for fiscal 2012, an increase of $2,667,000, or 7%, over fiscal 2011. The increases in selling, general and administrative expenses for the fourth quarter and fiscal year were primarily due to higher sales and marketing expenses and higher commissions as a result of increased sales.
Other expenses during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012 decreased $1,051,000 compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011. Other expenses for fiscal 2012 decreased by $1,605,000. These decreases were primarily due to decreased foreign currency losses experienced in fiscal 2012.
Cash and cash equivalents totaled $35,770,000 as of October 31, 2012, compared to $44,961,000 as of October 31, 2011. Inventories as of October 31, 2012 were $91,320,000, an increase of $10,193,000, or 13%, from the end of the prior fiscal year primarily due to an increase in finished goods inventory intended to meet forecasted growth in customer demand. Working capital, excluding cash, was $88,239,000 as of October 31, 2012, compared to $61,885,000 as of October 31, 2011. The increase in working capital, excluding cash, was primarily due to increased inventory resulting from higher production levels and increased accounts receivable from higher sales volumes.
Michael Doar, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, "Considering the economic uncertainty in Europe, we finished the year with a strong performance. I believe our results are a testament to customer acceptance of our cutting edge control technology and product line expansion. North America achieved record sales for the quarter, which I attribute to the excitement surrounding the rebranding initiative that we introduced at the International Manufacturing Technology Show in Chicago. Additionally, I believe U.S. customers appreciate the fact that our control technology focuses on helping them increase profitability, especially in the manufacture of small-to-medium-sized lots, which accounts for the majority of their machining activity. Going forward, we will continue to deliver machine tools with advanced technology that simplifies complex operations, while providing a user interface that is intuitive and user-friendly."
Hurco Companies, Inc. is an industrial technology company that designs and produces interactive computer controls, software and computerized machine tools for the worldwide metal cutting and metal forming industry. The end market for the Company's products consists primarily of independent job shops and short-run manufacturing operations within large corporations in industries such as aerospace, defense, medical equipment, energy, transportation and computer equipment. The Company is based in Indianapolis, Indiana, with manufacturing operations in Taiwan and China, and sells its products through direct and indirect sales forces throughout North America, Europe, and Asia. The Company has sales, application engineering support and service subsidiaries in China, England, France, Germany, India, Italy, Poland, Singapore, South Africa and the United States of America. Web Site: www.hurco.com
HURC - did I get lucky! Bought some yesterday and VERY strong earnings today ... up only 4% thus far so still a very good price.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55804411&symbol=HURC
"Hurco Companies, Inc., (Nasdaq:HURC) today reported results for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year ended October 31, 2012. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012, Hurco recorded net income of $4,086,000, or $0.63 per diluted share, as compared to net income of $2,654,000, or $0.41 per diluted share, for the corresponding period in fiscal 2011. For the full fiscal year 2012, Hurco recorded net income of $15,638,000, or $2.40 per diluted share, as compared to net income of $11,124,000, or $1.71 per diluted share, for fiscal 2011.
Sales and service fees for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012 were $56,067,000, an increase of $7,496,000, or 15%, from the prior year period. This quarter-over-quarter improvement is net of the adverse impact of $2,087,000, or 4%, in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012, due to a weaker Euro when translating foreign sales to U.S. Dollars for financial reporting purposes. Sales and service fees for the full fiscal year totaled $203,117,000, an increase of $22,716,000, or 13%, from fiscal 2011. The unfavorable impact of currency translation on the full fiscal year-over-year comparison was $7,609,000, or 4%.
"
PLSB - next 2-3 quarters are going to be critical.
http://beta.fool.com/jdhutche/2013/01/10/3-stocks-stand-benefit-one-new-years-resolution/21256/
... United Natural Foods obviously carries a large number of products (supplier of Whole Foods) but one interesting group of products that it is expected to begin carrying soon is Pulse Beverage’s brand of functional beverages. Pulse’s line of functional beverages address key nutritional needs of people of all ages but specifically for people 30+ who want to feel 30+ for the rest of their lives. Pulse beverages contain functional ingredients, including certain vitamins and anti-oxidants such as Vitamins C, D, E, B6, and B12, Folic Acid, Calcium, Magnesium, lycopene, selenium, soluble fiber, green tea catechins and soy isoflavones. These beverages are expected to debut shortly and distributors are eagerly awaiting the initial launch.
Although currently smaller operations, Pulse has built a nationwide distribution system with 83 distributors servicing 43 US states, Canada, Panama, Bermuda and Mexico. Once this “critical mass” of distributors was established and operating well, the company could then approach and secure listings for Cabana, Pulse’s natural lemonade beverage, with large grocery and convenience store chains resulting in approved listings to date totaling over 6,500 outlets. While the company is starting to deliver Cabana to some of these outlets the company is ramping up production to deliver Cabana to all of these outlets starting in Q1 2013.
Thanks!
Indeed, pretty amazing that a bankrupt company can get all these loans continually approved to finance such unprofitable business!
With HHSE being near bankrupt (which must be true as shorts say the numbers cannot be trusted) the company is sure doing well in being able to finance all this businsess growth!
If its a sunk cost (for you) then its irrelevant... looking to the future, why not post your concerns on a pink sheet board?
"In traditional microeconomic theory, only prospective (future) costs are relevant to an investment decision. Traditional economics proposes that economic actors should not let sunk costs influence their decisions. Doing so would not be rationally assessing a decision exclusively on its own merits."
If you don't trust *any* pinkies, why are you posting on this board specifically? Why not raise your issues on some pink sheet forum?
23%
brilliant!
Wow... never seen an $85K marketcap stock before ... how did you first hear about it?
I agree ... I wouldn't be surprised if things get delayed because of these IRS meetings, but the good part is that we won't be waiting months and months.
I can't blame your frustration as I'm at the point I'd almost rather lose my money then have to wait months and years to find out what the hell is going on!
I did buy more at 1.4s and 1.1s so we'll soon find out if it was a savy or dumb move.
"The reason for the delay was they didn't have a clue about the process"
If you are right, we are going to make a lot of $$$. Such a process, over time, can be remedied ... if the business is profitable (as they say it is) then the depressed share price from these issues -- ironically -- will be a gift to those that took advantage.
In other words, what better opportunity for an investor than a company whose share price is drastically depressed due to near-term issues that are easiliy remedied.
I'm not disagreeing about the incompetence ... just saying it can be an advantage if understood.
Time will tell ...
IRE - doing very well ... congrats Malc who raised this one many times to us!
Very frustrating that I had my sights on it late last year as the chart was looking very good (to me) and I felt Europe would be coming around. I very much trust Malcs DD but wanted to discipline myself and personally investigate/confirm the details ... has went from $5.50 to $8.50 and I still haven't looked at it!
Note to self ... if Malc likes a stock and the chart/intuition is good ... buy and ask questions later!
I have my bead on Hurco (HURC) which is also a Europe play, good value (PE 10 based on currently depressed earnings) and not (yet) jumped in share price. Not a potential 10 bagger but its good to have the stability of the earnings ... also I understand such value small caps historically are the best opportunity in beating the market.
Net cash about $6 per share.
Like the growth in Asia.
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW
Hurco Companies, Inc. is an industrial technology company operating in a single segment. We design and produce computerized machine tools, featuring our proprietary computer control systems and software, for sale through our own distribution network to the worldwide metal cutting market. We also provide software options, control upgrades, accessories and replacement parts for our products, as well as customer service and training support.
We sell our products through more than 100 independent agents and distributors in countries throughout North America, Europe and Asia. We also have our own direct sales and service organizations in Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Poland, Singapore, South Africa, the United Kingdom and certain parts of the United States. The vast majority of our machine tools are manufactured to our specifications primarily by our wholly owned subsidiary in Taiwan, Hurco Manufacturing Limited (HML). Machine castings and components to support HML’s production are manufactured at our facility in Ningbo, China. We also manufacture certain machine tools for the Chinese market at the Ningbo plant.
The following overview is intended to provide a brief explanation of the principal factors that have contributed to our recent financial performance. This overview is intended to be read in conjunction with the more detailed information included in our financial statements that appear elsewhere in this report.
From fiscal 2004 through fiscal 2008, we experienced a period of sustained growth due to strong worldwide demand for machine tools, the expansion of our product line to include higher-performance machines, increased customer acceptance of our products, and the strength of our selling and manufacturing operations outside the United States. In fiscal 2009 and 2010 we experienced the effects of the world-wide recession. We took steps to reduce production and operating costs. In fiscal 2011, worldwide demand for machine tools increased as global manufacturing rebounded from the recession and we were able to ramp up production and return to profitability.
The market for machine tools is international in scope. We have both significant foreign sales and foreign manufacturing operations. During the past three fiscal years, approximately 63% of our sales were attributable to customers located in Europe and 10% of our sales were attributable to customers located in Asia. During the first nine months of fiscal 2012, 58% of our sales were attributable to customers in Europe and 13% of our sales were attributable to customers in Asia. The decrease in European sales reflects economic uncertainty and the continuing debt crisis in that region and the increase in Asian sales reflects increased market penetration.
Our sales to foreign customers are denominated, and payments by those customers are made, in the prevailing currencies—primarily the Euro, Pound Sterling and Chinese Yuan—in the countries in which those customers are located. Our product costs are incurred and paid primarily in the New Taiwan Dollar and the U.S. Dollar. Changes in currency exchange rates may have a material effect on our operating results and consolidated balance sheets as reported under U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. For example, when the U.S. Dollar weakens in value relative to a foreign currency, sales made, and expenses incurred, in that currency when translated to U.S. Dollars for reporting in our financial statements, are higher than would be the case when the U.S. Dollar is stronger. In the comparison of our period-to-period results, we discuss the effect of currency translation on those results including the increases or decreases in those results as reported in our financial statements (which reflect translation to U.S. Dollars at exchange rates prevailing during the period covered by those financial statements) and also the effect that changes in exchange rates had on those results.
Our high levels of foreign manufacturing and sales also subject us to cash flow risks due to fluctuating currency exchange rates. We seek to mitigate those risks through the use of various derivative instruments – principally foreign currency forward exchange contracts.
Excellent!
"Germany is one of the largest markets in Europe for dermatological and skin care devices. Our partnership with Laserwelt will provide a strong foundation in this important region"
"Given that Aura''s™ clinical study results show the device can quickly and accurately assist in skin cancer diagnosis, we are confident of widespread market adoption."
XIN - hitting 3-year highs. Yes, there is the potential auditor scandle but as long as they pay the dividend (4%) there is still value (and PE remains sub 2).
Risky ... yes! Reward ... potentially huge!
I'm so glad you guys are around to keep an eye on these details ... I've not been pulling my weight lately but have been exhausting myself working on my damn book ... I curse it only because I've taken on what is personally an enormous challenge ...
Almost done writing my critique of Daniel Dennett's heterophenomenological analysis of the Cartesian Theater! Two more difficult chapters to go and I'm out of the thickest part of the woods ... if the woods don't kill me!!
ADXS and INO both doing really well lately!
(Does not say much about my idea to hold both as diversification, rather than just ADXS, but I'm not complaining).
Appologies IKBS I did not have any time recently to look into it. Certainly the more eyes the better and I appreciate the heads up ... hopefully will have some more time for the next one!
INO up 11% on huge volume today ... news from this AM on partnership to test malaria vaccine.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/path-malaria-vaccine-initiative-inovio-090000582.html
Interestingly, trial participants will be voluntarily exposing themselves! I encourage anyone who wants to participate to contact Inovio ... lol!
"Volunteers will be administered the DNA and then exposed to the malaria parasite through the bite of infected mosquitoes to see whether this approach prevents infection."
"It's not either or."
Thant's what I was thinking too!
Thus, you might want to reconsider your criticism as uncertainty necessitates hope.
You'll have to share with us your approach to investing with absolute certainty ... until then, us underlings will have to rely on some hope.
This is a little-known pink sheet. There aren't enough big holders to do this continually!
US ticker has retraced ... of course, still like the movement and volume today!
Good gains today ... I've broken even ... yay!
For the short-term, hopefully it can hold this level ...
HURC - a good play on belief in Europe turnaround (in manufacturing)... PE of 10 so its already good value on current earnings.
I have a bid @ $22.10. Was $35 in 2011.
Hurco Companies, Inc., an industrial technology company, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of computerized machine tools worldwide. The company offers general purpose computerized machine tools, including vertical machining centers (mills) and turning centers (lathes) in the VM, VMX, Five-Axis, TM/TMM, DCX, VTXZ, HTX, and TMX series; and computer control systems and related software for press brake applications. It also produces and distributes software options, control upgrades, hardware accessories, and replacement parts for its machine tool product lines, as well as offers operator training and support services to its customers. The company offers its products to precision tool, die, and mold manufacturers; independent metal parts manufacturers; and specialized production application or prototype departments. It serves aerospace, defense, medical equipment, energy, automotive/transportation, electronics, and computer equipment industries.
VALE ... anyone else still have this one? Nice that its near 6-month highs. Is it a sell here?
(Of course, I wish I had sold it a year ago, but I'm up 23% since investing in VALE since 2009 ... not that great of a return considering the market since then.)
Reminder of VSEC ... very low valuation, long-term profitability and dividend. Dependent on government contracts, however. If you believe the sequestor will be re-negotiated to less drastic cuts, VSEC -- IMO -- is both a good short-term play and long-term hold.
Watch for it to drop, however, if there is panic in the upcoming couple months... I'm looking to increase my holding.
(Personally, I wish for defense spending to be scaled back significantly ... VSEC is almost like insurance against that happening.)
Wildcard - I'm sticking with EXMGF ... not sure if I get a price reset? (Either way it's ok!)
Miners had a terrible year due to escalating costs (which unfortunately wiped out my AMYZF). Copper prices have remained strong, however, so EXMFG remains a good play...
For contrarions (I call it belief in mean-reversion), an interesting article how the worst sectors in 2011 performed very well in 2012... thus hopefully miners (and other underperforming secotors) should do well this year.
(According to the article, should load up a little more HDGE as insurance, but -- for now -- I'm only going to maintain my holding as I think the market has room to increase once the sequester has been negotiated.)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1089771-dogs-of-2011-shine-in-2012-who-will-be-best-in-breed-for-2013?source=yahoo
I'm initiating DD, but looks very good value here.