Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc (ADXS)

[stills999]

Significance Test.

Smooth a big thanks for the link ... not sure if slide #21 is new information, but -- if so -- it would explain the excitement.

Does anyone know what SAE means? (Survival after enrolment?).

http://www.advaxis.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/OneMedForum-ADXS-Presentation.pdf

I ran the results through a calculator and the p-value is very low at .0032 ... which is a good thing! This means that the chances of getting this result (or better) by random chance is 0.3% ... thus the result does not seem to be random. I don't know the alpha/cutoff value normally used in clinical trials, but anything less than 5% is quite good in my books.

For reference, here is the calculator and the numbers I used. (I'd be thankful for anyone to double-check the numbers.)

http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_hypothesisprop2.wasp

sample size 70
proportion .33 (trial result)
null hypothesis .20 (survival expected without treatment)
type 1 error .05 (this is used to accept/reject the hypothesis and is not used for evaluating, not calculating, the p-value).


Note: this calculator uses normal approximation which is not fully accurate for testing proportions but should be close enough ... if/when I have some time, I'll run it the correct way and verify the result.