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$327 is my SWAG; either today or tomorrow. Great ride on the outs since Mon!
Yeah, saw that. That was one of the reasons why NVDA sold off so hard last Fri. I took my profits and moved onto TSLA calls yesterday; still riding them from $352 and will sell first thing tomorrow if it gaps up to $380. Building capital at the moment and waiting for the right moment to ride SPY later this week and the next.
Happy trading everyone!
Algol
Sorry for not posting for so long, but I just stayed out of trading for a while. Now I am back. Everything is good otherwise and I am still on the East coast (left Hawaii 4 years ago).
Yesterday was my best trading day in 3 years. Rode NVDA down all the way from 168 to 143 with puts. Next week I will roll over the gains to SPY. This price consolidation in the last couple of days will break one way or another. I like what you said last week: the new normal now is "sell in June and go away." So, three more weeks of active trading and then pause again for a couple of months.
More fun next week!
Take care everyone!
Algol
I wish everyone a truly enchanting holiday season and a prosperous New Year!
I am no longer in UAE; I returned in Oct. But I want to move there, for good, and I am working on that!
IMHO, one more high and then reasonable correction. The last subwave should end early tomorrow. We should close at HOD or thereabouts. They want to see 20k on the DOW before a pullback.
Two counter trend rallies, so one more low early on Mon and that should do it. I doubt now that we will get to my target from earlier today, but more like 2156. Have a good weekend everyone!
Wave 1 was 25 points, so if 3=1.618x25 then wave 3 should get us down to at least 2144. IMHO, we should test the previous ATH at 2134 before we bounce.
Nasty intraday reversal. IMHO, the correction has began. There are lots of gaps to fill on the way down!
This looks like a 3rd wave; we had the first wave start with the failure to make a new high on Mon and today we completed wave 2. So, that is wave 3 down.
Fresh new ATH, as expected! More upward movement in early next week! 2187 at the very least. Then... We will see!
These are all the right signs to make new ATH by the end of the week. You need to have a contrarian view to make money in this market. So, a few more points to the bottom of the channel, and then up again. All MHO of course.
And, sooner or later the gravity comes into play, no matter what!
I can see farther than others because I stand on the shoulders of giants (my mentors, you included). :)
Just kidding of course. This is a nice quote from Sir Isaak Newton - the original Apple guy.
SPX is stuck in this channel for 8 trading sessions! It is clear that we will break out of it tomorrow, but do we get head-fake to the upside first?! IMHO, yes!
AAPL reporting AH today, then FB tomorrow, so we can get a nice over-through up to ... (hold your breath!) ...2200 before heading down south post FOMC tomorrow.
Happy trading folks!
For impatient traders this is worst possible setup to trade, where each day reverses the previous day just to stay in range. IMHO, there will be some exuberance on Mon for a fake breakout to the upside, which will be sold off. Eventually, there will be a true breakout of this trading range to the downside after the FOMC statement on Wed. This is how I see it.
Happy trading everyone, and have a good weekend!
Agreed; 3 points lower from today's low per your earlier message. Should be done with it early tomorrow then up again.
Sorry, was talking about SPX. The heat got me today...
Almost, perhaps one more low. Down day today, up days tomorrow and Mon.
I agree about the entry point; will wait until the oil inventories report at 10:30.
Zoom, zoom, zoom: the next leg up is here. So, if 5=1 we are looking at 2196 in SPX cash market.
Let us get through AAPL first, which I think will disappoint again, and that is the day before FOMC!
Fly SPY, fly with MSFT! Let us get to 2200 by Fri!
In MSFT we trust to push us higher AH today and tomorrow. And then AAPL to bring the indexes back down to reality. This is my WAG.
I find it strange that this (fried Turkey) happened right after market close. Banksters plans for OPEX would have been ruined otherwise. Now big gap down on Mon followed by a new all time high at 2200 by Fri. That is the game plan.
IMHO, I think we go higher from here and top on Tue or Wed.
Have a great weekend everyone!
I think this is it. We should bounce from here. Yes, I did program in ALGOL back in the days when I was in high school. It was fun experience! Now a dead language...
Me too. I am waiting for the same signal to go long again. :)
If we ever get that low today. I think 2158 should do it. Then march higher to meet your target of 2191 in early next week.
I do not think there is any more QE-related news until the next FOMC meeting. So, smooth sailing to the upside, with occasional headwinds now and then. I hope we get to 2180 by Fri before any meaningful pullback.
I am also sleep deprived because of so much travel, and in my case kidneys suffer a lot; I start to get gout attacks very frequently these days.
Abu Dhabi is great for weight loss; currently the temp is 97 degrees with 60% humidity, so it feels like 115 degrees! Let us see how much weight I am going to lose in 2 months.
Let us see if we can get to my ambitious target of 2182 by mid Fri for 5-5 to end. We built a good base at 2150, so that should hold on any pullback next week. Overall, market in uptrend until the next FOMC meeting on July 27. Who know how high we get by then...
5-4 and 5-2 do not have to be similar, in fact alternation is good! 5-4 looks like a time consolidation (a triangle of some kind) than a price correction. If the lows are in for 5-4, then my overly ambitious target for 5-5 is 2183.
Agreed! Let us see if we bottom there. Then another 37 point advance for 5-5 (assuming 5=1).
Not yet, IMHO. One more high, up to R2 on the 60 min chart sitting at 2170. We should top by 10:30am tomorrow, then 5-4.
Finally some juice for 5-4. Let us see how far it goes.
I already cashed out on my calls. I was pretty close to my 2140 target, now let us how far down 5-4 takes us, ideally 2120.
I will be there to help the UAE Space Agency through the State Dept. I will send you pictures when I get a chance. Off to packing now...
My count is slightly off compared to O'Brien's; I still see one more subwave up to complete 5-3 early on Mon, then retrace to 2120 for 5-4, and then 5-5 up to 2150. But I could be wrong, and I have been wrong many times before!
Off to Abu Dhabi tomorrow, so I will be trading 8 hours ahead of everybody for 2 months! :)
Have a good weekend!
I see 5-3 being some 49-50 points in length, which puts us at around 2140. Then 5-4 and 5-5...
Thank you! I think we have juice to attack 2132 today. If we close there, then 2140-2142 on Mon and we reverse from there.
Wow, we are already at 2125. What a day!