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It has set the groundwork for a real nice looking lower wick if it can close above 1.20 today, we both know what that means, especially on a pincher
looking pretty sporty, I like that pinch it has going on.
POT has fell pretty well this morning. I'm keeping my eye on it as I believe it is just undergoing a small market correction right now and will recover and gain more ground when it does
April calls are looking a bit more attractive with the drop this morning
Welcome to the board and thanks for sharing those thoughts with us on SAM. I didn't a chance to dig into it this weekend like I had hoped I would have the time to do.
I've seen a couple places where there are rumors of buyouts as well. My biggest concern with that would be with the products at this point as they make some pretty good stuff.
As for their growing pains, they are in much better shape than many companies to deal with it. They have a fair amount of cash and no debt. I don't think they are near any crisis level if they are looking at buying back shares. If they have been authorized to spend 7.4 million towards repurchase they probably have a decent plan of action already worked out to deal with any problems they have, including the increased price of hops.
I guess tomorrow we shall find out how things have been going and how they expect things to progress.
I hope you get to feeling better, nothing worse than being under the weather. We'll try to pull through today without you. I don't work on Mondays so I'm usually planted at my desk til after market close, with any luck I'll be able to keep it between the ditches for us.......lol
DDS (Dillard's) Chart 16.37
Nice looking channel on this one, with it being a retail stock and all the bad talk on the economy, I look for more of the same here.
Financials release is proposed for March 10 thru March 20, IMO they will be like most other retail financials right now, more bad news.
April 15.00 puts look very attractive to me here
DIVX Chart 9.38 pincher
April options are fairly attractive, company will release earnings on Tuesday after market close. From looks of the chart this one could get interesting IMO
Current fundamentals don't look bad at all, a lot will hinge on numbers that are released Tuesday
Could be one worth taking a closer look at
very true, I mostly looked at MW as I'm trying to figure a way to maximize gains as earnings are released. As we know a spread or straddle requires one thing for the play to be a successful trade, MOVEMENT. The only thing you don't want is for the stock to remain flat. If we had just another week on the march contracts I would most likely be all over MW as the premiums are attractive and so close to the money while the stock has some great swings to it and financials will only send it up or down that much quicker.
CIEN on Friday was a prime example of how this can work. I will tell you in a few more days if it is working out well or not........fingers crossed hahaa. On CIEN I believed that they would beat earnings so on my spread I went lighter on puts than I did on my calls, not by much, 5 calls x 4 puts. It still gives me some on the downside to offset any loss on my calls but will give me better gains if it continues to rise. Right now I have less than 200.00 riding on it. If it can break into the 30.00's, and I believe it will I should make around 100% figuring my puts as worthless. If it breaks 35.00 my gains will be astronomical (premium on calls would be approximately 5.66 or about a 2700% gain) but that may be wishful thinking at this point. Guess we'll see, I've got til middle of April on it.
I figured the percent gains with the options calculator. Thing to keep in mind with MW is that a 22.50 call is only 1.20 under the money at the current time. As the price hits the money the delta goes up and as it gains beyond that it keeps rising.
At current price of 21.30 the calculator shows a current delta of .38, only a penny off the .39 you are using.
At the money, at 22.50 the delta would rise to .52 and the premium would be approximately 1.28 (43% gain on current ask)
At 23.30, or a 2.00 gain the delta would hit .62 and the premium would be approximately 1.74 (105% gain on current ask)
At 24.30 or a 3.00 gain the delta would be .73 and the premium would be approximately 2.41 (184% gain on current ask)
At 25.30 or a 4.00 gain the delta would be .81 and the premium would be approximately 3.18 (274% gain on current ask)
These are all figured on the call side. If one went with just a straight call on it and it made a couple dollar move up the gains would be nice. Only problem is the time is short on the march calls and I'm not that confident on this play, especially since I found SIGM shortly after working it. It is however a nice example of how the price and delta figure can rapidly increase when you buy contracts so close to the money
SIGM 26.36
Earnings will be released Wednesday after market close, could get interesting this week
I'm showing SIGM has 29.45 million shares issued and outstanding and 28.71 million shares in the float, should move well with any pressure
Return on Equity is a whopping 22.68%
Return on Assets 12.99%
They have over 250 million in cash which is 8.514 dollars per share and no debt
SIGM 26.36 pincher
Something doesn't add up on this one. From the looks of the numbers it shouldn't be falling apart like it is.
They will be posting financials on Wednesday after market close, they have beat estimates for the last six quarters straight, the seventh they met and they haven't missed on earnings since March of 2006, two years ago.
I'm showing SIGM has 29.45 million shares issued and outstanding and 28.71 million shares in the float
Return on Equity is a whopping 22.68%
Return on Assets 12.99%
Current ratio, 11.18
They have over 250 million in cash which is 8.514 dollars per share.
No debt
Thing I don't like, Insiders have been selling off, not a good sign. If they are as strong as the numbers suggest insiders should be loading up at these prices IMO.
Chart has a nice pinch to it, we know what happens from here most of the time. all indicators are bottomed out and it's showing way oversold on the on balance
I'm thinking this one could get interesting starting next week
MW (Men's Warehouse) 21.30
MW closed on Friday at 21.30. It has had some pretty good swings to it in the short term and will be posting financials on Wednesday after market close. I looked at options on it but it just doesn't have much for april.
IMO it's going to be getting too close to march expiration to even consider march contracts. On the other hand it has some nice moves and one could take a spread on it with a 20.00 put and a 22.50 call at which point it would need approximately a 2.00 move to get you at break even.
22.50 march call is currently .86
20.00 march put is currently .95
Each one is about 1.30 from being in the money at this time
This would give you at 1.81 premium for each contract on the march options
A 3.00 move up would give you appx a 35% gain
A 4.00 move up would give you appx a 75% gain
A 3.00 move down would give you appx a 30% gain
A 4.00 move down would give you appx a 65% gain
These figures are also before commissions so the actual gains would be a bit less and I figured the contract that was out of the money worth nothing due to the time factor
I'm thinking it's too risky with such short time on them, but if it had a big move it could be a super nice gain.
any thoughts??
EROC 14.81
Eagle Rock Energy partners is set to release earnings on Tuesday. At first glance it isn't very attractive, definitely just keeps falling and falling. Looking back over the last three financial releases they have missed earnings each time. Thing I noticed though is they keep getting closer and closer to the analyst estimates. IMO if it meets or beats estimates on Tuesday it could get very interesting.
Looks a bit pricy to do a spread as options for april 15.00 calls and puts would cost about 145.00 for one each way. Over the last couple months it has only swung a couple dollars, not good odds for a spread IMO. However if one is feeling a bit risky and wants to take a chance, the April 17.50's are attractively priced at a .10 premium.
A 100.00 gamble here could pay off huge if they were to beat analysts numbers and the stock were to rally well.
Not a recommendation in any way, just thinking out loud and making note of the company and what is going on with it. This may be one we want to wait til after earnings post to and see how the markets react before making any decisions
SAM Chart 34.15
Just doing a little browsing this morning and found this one. One thing about it, no options available so we would have to go long or short on it.
One thing I noticed is that it has channeled nicely between 34.00 and 39.00 with it currently sitting at the bottom of that channel. IMO it looks like many have sold off in fear of holding through financials. If financials end up being bad I think much, maybe not all, of the hit has already been figured in to the PPS.
On a side note check out the pinch it had back in mid November. 31.00 to 39.00 in about 4 weeks is a nice gain no doubt about it for a stock in this price range.
The big drop was due to bad financials for that quarter. That was due in part to the sharp rise in the cost of Hops, one of the primary ingredients used in beer. I look for this to work itself out.
The company is a super low floater, just over 14 million shares issued and outstanding. Good earnings this week would send this one up in a big hurry IMO. They post on Tuesday
Another thing I love, it's a beer stock. What do people do if they are unemployed and don't have to work?? Well many of them that drink beer, drink more beer.
Couple things I noted that I like on their stats
Return on assets 11.84%
Return on earnings 15.51
Cash on hand, 91 million with no debt
Current ratio 3.035
SAM key statistics
you make some very good points. Fluke or no fluke one of the things you have to master with stocks is to be able to identify trends and patterns. Another thing is patience, timing is everything in this game, and patience and discipline are the two hardest things to master.
It doesn't matter what stock you play, money can be made on it every day, just a matter of knowing how to play it and when to play it.
I've had better weeks and I have had worse. Considering the markets were red 4 of this weeks five days I'm not going to fret over it too much.
I plan to look at a couple more things over the weekend and I'm looking at a new plan of attack. CIEN worked out well for me so far and is showing some promise, of course this was the first one I picked when I decided to look at things from a new perspective so I may be on to something here or I may have just gotten lucky.
I'm noticing that when you find the right play as they release earnings you can get some outstanding results. FLOW was a great one yesterday, nice gap up yesterday morning and even had some gains today as the markets tanked. CIEN had a nice gain up this morning and held fairly well over all. I believe it will do like FLOW did and continue it's gains on Monday.
I'm liking the idea of an options straddle on plays such as these, thing with a straddle is you make money as long as it doesn't just sit flat and not many stocks are sitting flat right now.
It's going to take some research on company's that are about to release earnings. This weekend I will be looking for plays that will be posting earnings on Wed or Thurs of next week. IMO this will give me time to watch the stock a few days, get a feel for how it's trading and what other news is developing on it. Hopefully this will help me to choose what play to take a position in and get the best bang for my buck.
SVU and DY both having some nice gains today, they kind of crept up on me as I've been watching CIEN so closely
up 125% on CIEN april calls right now, it just knocked HOD at 29.00, it has covered the cost of my puts so far and from here out we make money
I'm right there with ya on it, I'm hoping we look great.
I agree, I'm really liking it, as long as it moves and doesn't just trade sideways you are good on it. And as you said, with the april contracts there is plenty of time to let it play out
CIEN just punched 28.00, up over 3.00 from where I bought my spread at. My puts aren't worth anything but my calls are going to start getting more attractive if if continues
Guess that's the price you pay to play it safe.......lol
I'm not real happy with how SVU has done the last two days, I expected much more out of it for sure, I still think it will come back, just may take a bit more time than I first thought
I agree AAPL is looking very nice
AAPL trading under 120.00 right now, could be a nice buying opportunity. Does anyone think it won't get back up to 125.00 over the next week or two??
Could do well playing options on the swings it has
yep, markets don't look good at all so far
CIEN news and chart
I'm liking the action on this one so far this morning, I'm thinking my calls I bought yesterday may be looking pretty good on it come opening bell if it keeps gaining.
7:06AM Ciena beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line (CIEN) 24.94 : Reports Q1 (Jan) earnings of $0.47 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.07 better than the First Call consensus of $0.40; revenues rose 37.7% year/year to $227.4 mln vs the $225.6 mln consensus. "While we are mindful of the macro economic environment, indications from our customers to date suggest no change in the fundamental drivers of Ciena's business: the demand for increasing network capacity and the transition to Ethernet/IP-based network infrastructures. Accordingly, we remain optimistic about our outlook for the year. Inclusive of revenue expected from our recently closed acquisition of World Wide Packets, we anticipate current demand trends will enable us to deliver annual revenue growth in a range, up to 27 percent in fiscal 2008."
CIEN earnings out, up a little in early premarket, hoping it gains much more
Link back for chart
Ciena Corp. (CIEN) nearly tripled its fiscal first-quarter net income amid increasing demand for telecommunications-equipment maker's gear that allows network operators to handle more traffic at lower costs.
That and an increased fiscal-year revenue forecast to reflect a recent acquisition sent shares of Ciena up more than 4% in recent premarket trading to $26 from Thursday's closing price of $24.94.
For the quarter ended Jan. 31, the maker of optical-network equipment reported net income of $28.8 million, or 28 cents a share, up from $11.1 million, or 12 cents a share.
Excluding stock-compensation and acquisition-related costs as well as a $7.7 million legal settlement in the latest quarter, earnings jumped to 47 cents a share from 22 cents.
Revenue shot up 38% to $227.4 million. The company in December projected sales would grow up to 5% from the fourth quarter's $216.2 million.
The latest mean estimates of analysts polled by Thomson Financial were for earnings of 40 cents a share on revenue of $226 million.
The results mark Ciena's sixth straight quarter of profit following a five-year earnings drought.
Gross profit margin rose to 51.3% from 44.6%.
Looking ahead, Ciena boosted its projection for fiscal 2008 revenue growth in a range up to 27% from its December forecast for 20% growth, citing its recently closed acquisition of World Wide Packets. Analysts' latest mean estimates were for 22% growth to $948 million.
President and Chief Executive Gary Smith said the company remains optimistic about its outlook for the year. "While we are mindful of the macro economic environment, indications from our customers to date suggest no change in the fundamental drivers of Ciena's business: the demand for increasing network capacity and the transition to Ethernet/IP-based network infrastructures," he said.
Ciena has been benefitting from strong demand as network operators upgrade their networks to better handle music and video content and to offer the so-called triple play of services: voice, Internet and video. Still, it remains a small player in an arena filled with giants.
And it has seen a lot of criticism as of late. Analysts and investors felt the original fiscal-year revenue outlook it issued in December was too conservative. The next month, Ciena confused them with an announcement that it planned to acquire World Wide Packets, a privately held supplier of equipment for Carrier Ethernet-based networks, for about $200 million in cash, plus 3.4 million shares of stock. The deal closed Monday at slightly lower terms.
One analyst in January voiced a belief that the deal was made to thwart rival Cisco Systems Inc.'s (CSCO) attempts to encroach on Ciena's territory, and to get a competitive advantage over Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) and Tellabs Inc. (TLAB). But shares fell 14% the day the deal was announced as most agreed it was too pricey, even if it ends up helping sales double in 2008.
Ciena is part of a group of technology companies that have had to make bite-size versions of the same kinds of write-downs that have wracked investment banks and other financial firms. In its fiscal fourth quarter, the company took a $13 million loss because of its exposure to structured-investment vehicles that constituted 2% of its cash and short-term investment balance.
CIEN, I took a couple positions on this one banking on a move of 5.00 or better from the 25.00 area it is currently at.
Earnings hit tomorrow and I'm looking for an earnings surprise but I'm not confident about that. I ended up buying 5 April 35.00 calls as well as 5 April 17.50 puts
We'll see how it goes
DY starting to show some life, on a nice run right now and looking strong
CIEN chart and thoughts
Ok, this is a risky thought but this is what I'm looking at. Keep in mind at this point I am merely thinking out loud.
CIEN will be posting earnings tomorrow before market open.
In looking back over their track record over their last ten financial postings here's what I found
Meet analyst estimates 1
failed to meet estimates 1
exceeded estimates 8
Sounds decent so far, here's where the risk gets bigger, the one time in the last ten that they failed to meet estimates was March 2007, yep, exactly one year ago.
EPS estimate for this quarter is .40
Chart shows it trading down today and not much above it's 52 week low.
IMO if it were to exceed estimates it will move in a very nice way
Big gamble?? Well april 35.00 calls are up 10% today and have an ask of .25, april 30.00 calls are down 23.5% with an ask of .80
an earnings surprise and a run up to 30.00 would put the April 35.00 calls worth about .95 and the April 30.00 calls worth about 1.60
I would be happy with 130.00 on apple, I bought in much lower than that and that would give me a nice gain.
I see that, still holding march 135 calls, just wish I would've bought more when it was down over the past couple days
DY insiders still buying, new purchases posted this morning, three days in a row now
DY insider purchases link
DY Insiders at it again. More shares purchased showing up this morning AGAIN!! Three days in a row now, HMMM, very good sign indeed
DY Insider purchases link
Thoughts on DY this morning??
I'm thinking if it holds well through what I believe the markets are going to do today, we have ourselves one tough little determined stock that will do us well
UDRL, with the markets looking to fall today, this one is going to take it even harder than I first thought. Look for a high speed come apart on this bad boy
Link back for chart
I've got a couple ideas on these gappers but it will take some time to see if it even comes close to predicting any big moves.
Right now one I'm going to keep an eye on is DEPO, they will have earnings after hours today. I'm in no way recommending buying it, just saying it's one I'm watching to see if I'm even close to being on the right track.
Only problem is, to be in on moves like FLOW, one is going to have to hold through earnings. We know how risky that can be
BBI put out numbers today, she's sitting right at about 3.00 right now. I've not reviewed the stats but from first glance they don't look all that bad.
I want to figure out how to predict when a stock is going to gap like FLOW is looking to do today. If we could get it where we were only right 20% of the time we could get very well
I thought of a good analogy for that comment but it's not suited for public release!
I agree, harder it runs out of the box better it will pull back, once it bottoms and starts back up, hit it good then sit back and watch
It can only stay above the upper band for so long before it has to come back in check with reality
FLOW, I don't think it will drop below 8.00 today, already trading at 8.65 and it looks to have support around the 8.00 mark as well as 8.20 area then some more at 8.60.
I look for it to scream out of the gate, pull back some, then increase steady from there
Of course I could be wrong as I am half the time