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Wow, you left yourself open with that one considering Keith's history.
Ooops.
I meant to say O/S increases.
As was pointed out last night by Trueheart and since deleted it was classic leading question. Let's ask a more apropos question like:
Are you willing to hold on to your investment through 2010 if the share price continues to decline or stays below $.05 as the O/S decreases, without a clearer statement from the company as to what it's assets are.
Certainly most of the respondents will again agree in the affirmative, but at least the question will be clearer.
I will certainly concede your on site knowledge of the area. The '12 others' were the ones listed by KGS in the same specific 'section' that were all drilled to the same depth. I think you were fishing during that discussion:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=31263300
Certainly there are more wells in other adjacent sections. However, I am not sure I see the value yet in being surrounded by dry holes and abandoned wells.
As for the 79 active oil wells you claim are near by how much oil are they producing on average? 3-5 BOPMonth? Again not a very hopeful sign. Certainly you aren't implying they are in the same creek trend as the Collins?
The PR says they are producing the Squirrel, not the new pay zone they found.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=31111733
Sorry, BigMur. Your just going to have to forgive me, but two years of Keith has turned this fresh faced optimist into a bitter, jaded pessimist.
Even if Craig does pull a miracle well out of the Collin lease, I am confident Keith will find a way to make sure it doesn't help the share price any.
Yes, I am well aware of what the poorly worded question was. Even someone who was planning to flip the stock in a month could answer Yes to that question, simply as it affects the pinky food chain or market sentiment. (PFC = Day traders preying on flippers who prey on the investors who usually get screwed in the pinks)
I could technically answer yes to the question, but that doesn't mean I am willing to sit here for two more years with the share price drifting to nowhere land. As I once heard from a hard core chartist, 'The chart knows all' and it is often true, IMO.
If things really are as rosy as people say they are for HMGP, eventually real information gets out. Reserve reports, lease sales, joint ventures, buyout discussions, amazing well results - when these things are really happening word gets out. Not to the ihubbers, but to people connected to the action in one way or another. Volume picks up out of nowhere, the chart starts positioning for a move and the share price starts climbing. Then the news finally hits the streets and the average Joe finds out what's going on. Insider trading or whatever else you may want to call it, but its rampant in unregulated land of pinks.
So when nothing seems to be going on with the stock, it's usually a pretty good indication that nothings going on with the company either. Why doesn't Keith ever release any hard info about the number of acres or barrels of oil produced or locations of checkerboard leases or anything else at all???
Well the simplest explanation is because there isn't much to say. Because it would look completely anticlimactic compared to what has been speculated at. All in my opinion, of course. Sure some things are going on and sure the new well might be half decent and sure the stock is somewhat undervalued and the market cap is kind of ridiculous.
But $2-$3 undervalued kind of ridiculous? - I don't think so. Somebody, somewhere would know enough about it and take interest and that certainly hasn't happened yet.
I admitted before, that there is a first time for everything.
Could this be when Hemi drills a well and gets more than 3BOPD out of it? Sure. Like I also said, I'm not expecting it. 10-15 BOPD maybe, that would justify my investment, but not some miracle 50-100 BOPD well.
Certainly Craig has a lot of tricks up his sleeve they didn't have back then. I guess we'll see. But I am not even convinced that Keith's going to tell us anything beyond initial production if even that.
I'm sorry but I get the exactly opposite view from your questions. Yes, they are old, abandoned and possibly not produced.
That is supposed to bode well (no pun intended) for our well in the same small area? Now certainly the geology can be different in that small of an area, but how likely is it that we have a 50-100 BOPD gusher surrounded by a bunch of dead wells that never did much?
Yeah, we discussed it before. I am still waiting for the miracle to prove we found just the right magic spot a few hundred yards from all the near misses and dead wells that going to make us rich.
No actually there were something like 12 other wells in that same 1/4 square mile section that had been drilled to the same formation, same depth and since been abandoned for the most part.
They didn't perf the well in the new found zone, so this well won't be any better because of it.
Yes, there is always a first and I'm with everyone else hoping this is it. I am just not really expecting it quite honestly.
I said we'd be lucky to get 10-15 BOPD. You claim not to make any predictions yourself, fine. However, as moderator and chief Hemi know-it-all, to let others make wild predictions of 50 to 100 BOPD or more without tempering such speculation is worse in my opinion.
You know I will. I'll do backflips and then let Kelsey to an 'I told you so' dance on my head.
Yes, quite possibly. No one has any idea how long it will maintain those pressures or whether or not they were exaggerated in the first place. Nor whether the mixture of gas and oil from this well will allow the oil to be recovered in the quantities you are implying.
I think we will be lucky to get 10-15 BOPD from this well after a month or two -IF we are lucky and IF they bother to tell us. That's still 3 times the average for the area, yet people are putting implications on the table of over 10-20 times the average for the area. Sorry, I don't buy it.
All we have are the facts and the facts are that Keith has overstated expectations in the past and that he has failed to follow through with numbers (so as not to confirm that they were overstated in my opinion).
...the FMV of Hemi is not determined by a vote on a stock message board.
Amen, brother!
I was mostly just agreeing that a lot of the issues depend on the buying company. If you are big shot in the area like Quest (I think it is them I am thinking of) then you aren't so worried about the Hemi's ability to currently produce gas off the leases.
They would be able to deal with that when the time came. Some one else who is not active in the area yet might be more concerned that all of Hemi's gas reserves are 'behind pipe' without an effective way to currently exploit them.
Of course it matters, IMO. People can mince words all they like, but the accessibility of the reserves has to matter. So does whether or not they are currently producing. How much it matters is hard to say.
A lot of the information about other buyouts that has been posted on this board has not only included reserves, but also how much those reserves were currently producing. Hemi is currently at a disadvantage because of the local market for gas, but along the lines of what I think BigMur was saying that may not matter much to a bigger player.
Hemi has a ways to go to make their current reserves a little more attractive, but I don't think anyone can argue that Craig and crew are out there working their tails off doing a dang good job of it.
I know I am probably being a little unfair to Keith (only a little), but until he proves me wrong I'm certainly not going to hold him blameless.
As to fighting back, I would love to see them take some of that money and buy back shares. Not to necessarily raise the share price by doing so, but to do it slowly over a long period of time while the shorters do their thing. I know I am dreaming, but imagine what they could do with $2M from deals and insurance claims. Given a long enough time they could buy back 1/2 the O/S quite easily over a year. Image the surprise to the NSS folks when they decrease the O/S by 50%.
For a company that is supposedly worth tens of millions of dollars (hundreds by the folks saying $2/share) could there be a cheaper way to double the shareholder value? Sure new leases and wells would be good things, but how much would it cost the company right now to double their assets? Given their undervalued status I think cutting the O/S would be a more productive thing do with the money. Big oil like Exxon has been doing this for years.
Sure cutting the O/S by half is a long shot, but even getting halfway there would be a good thing. I'd sit this out quietly for another year if I thought the O/S would go back anywhere near to 45M.
It would actually make the floods a good thing if they could buyback the shares they sold to recover from the damage at 1/2 to 1/3 what they sold them for!
I think what the big problem was, and still is for some people, is recognizing the difference between Hemi and HMGP. Especially those who actively expound upon the glories of Hemi and try to draw conclusions about HMGP from it.
One is an O&G company and the other is a pinksheet stock. One has a lot of potential and the other is in the toilet. I am not saying this dichotomy should exist or even makes a lot of sense, but it certainly explains the situation you and a lot of other shareholders have gotten themselves into.
In my opinion, the only person who can bridge this gap is Keith. Once he starts thinking of Hemi and HMGP as the same thing on something shorter than 5 year time scales, things will start to improve. Right now I think he is mostly concerned with Hemi and doesn't give a crap about HMGP. I don't think this is right with a growing O/S.
(my same old complaint repackaged)
I call the past couple of day's low volume, which the formT is usually proportionate to, ominous.
What is funny (at least to me) is that people think things can be 'fixed'. That electing the right person is going to change the 100 years of momentum behind our slide. That one particular political party over another is going to repeal all those taxes and cut spending enough to make a difference.
It just doesn't work that way. It just gets worse and worse until it collapses under it's own weight. The power goes out in some big city for 12 hours and you get looting and rioting. What's going to happen when the power goes out for days or weeks, when the trucks stop criss crossing the country and the grocery stores run out of food. That's when you're going to wish we hadn't created a whole sub-population that is completely dependent on the State. That is when you are going to wish you stood up for your right to bear arms and that you knew your neighbors a little bit better.
Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together - mass hysteria!
What's even more funny is that some of my friends consider me the optimist. :)
I can't imagine they would have drilled anything beyond the 3rd or 4th well if they hadn't been successful in the area? However, certainly KGS isn't the whole picture and any wells drilled today are far and away more productive than any drilled 40 years ago.
If you search the section for the Sturgeon well (T31S R16E, Sec. 12) it doesn't show any other wells at all in the area, yet the NOI itself has a number of other wells marked on the grid. So again, the KGS isn't the whole story. Additionaly, the Collins does seem have other indicators that it is not in a mature area.
True, I missed that. I'm back to foggy again.
Here is a link to the Collins Hemi 1 NOI:
http://www.kgs.ku.edu/PRS/Documents2/2008_03_01_KCC/030408_Collins_Hemi_1.pdf
or the KGS well page:
http://abyss.kgs.ku.edu/pls/abyss/qualified.well_page.DisplayWell?f_kid=1037888913
This well is in Township 25 South Range 17 East in section 30. T25S R17E, Sec. 30
Here is a link to the KGS search:
http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Magellan/ACO/index.html
If you go there and search in Woodsen county on T25S R17E Section 30 you get 12 other wells just in this .25 square mile area.
Here is a good map of Woodson county which shows the owl creek area (you can find the township and range markets along the edges and there is a key on the right that shows the section layout) where you can confirm the scale and layout of these sections:
http://www.kgs.ku.edu/General/Geology/County/tw/wo/gifs/M52_WoodsonGeology_1999.pdf
Apparently all of the older wells were drilled to no more than 900 feet which would indeed make the Mississippi lime formation at Hemi's target of 1350 feet an untapped resource in this area.
The latest PRs state the report will include the 3 new wells. So since the timeline has slipped on those I am sure it would have on the 6/1/08 date as well.
The last time they got a report they released the information before it was even official. Hopefully they will be as forthcoming this time:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2007_Feb_23/ai_n27158565
We already have that same problem with the Collins well where people are assuming that 'Texas type' means lots of oil instead of possibly lots of complicated completion techniques and equipment.
Although in this case I was referring to Keith's own PRed statement of 68 bbls per day that was overly optimistic.
The Sturgeon-Hemi 1:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=21900629
and the Reno-Hemi 2:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=18816403
The Reno-Hemi 2 apparently suffered from the flood damage last summer, although it is more likely the reported initial BBL/day numbers were extremely optimistic.
I don't really know what is up with the Sturgeon-Hemi 1 which was drilled after the floods I believe. Supposedly that well "still has its original gas-water solution drive" much like the new Collins well is supposed to have. They never did release flow rates for that one, I don't think, much less production. That's the problem with these great sounding wells is that until you have actual production numbers from them it is really hard to say whether they are as good as everyone claims they are going to be.
I disagree. I think the smaller T trade is right on track for what we have been seeing.
I think the bigger one is something completely different and separate. It certainly couldn't have affected today's trading as it obviously can't be correlated to any trading throughout the day. You can NSS without someone to sell to and that FormT doesn't seem to be connected to the retail trading of the day at all.
Still, it's all ugly whatever it is. I am going to have to disagree with you too BigMur and say 'more-foggy'. ;) I'll give you 'less-pretty' though, or at least 'more-ugly'.
I think that we will get initial flow rates as soon as they have them. They said as much in the PR and I believe it at this point. However, I don't think they will release production numbers anytime before the reserve report.
On the reserve report, if none of the 3 well are fully completed yet I think it will be some time before we see it. So far at least 2 of the 3 are needing further and/or special completion techniques. The Collins is probably going to need a lot of additional hardware as well. This is a "Good Thing", Texas type well, etc, etc. However, all these things take time and usually a lot more than people suspect. It may take a month to order and install the special equipment for the Collins and then more time to baseline it after that. It could be shorter and it could also be longer for that matter.
Then once all the field work is done and the data has been gathered then they can continue and finalize the field report. That will also take more time. In the mean time, who knows what else they will find that they will feel compelled to wait for to add into the report.
Sounds to me like we have a minimum of a couple of months being fairly conservative, IMO. Given past history that could go from 2 months to 4 months to never. Personally, I think it will get done eventually. They've mentioned it in too many PRs. However, they've never even said they are going to release it publicly. I am not saying they aren't, but I am not holding my breath waiting to see it in the next 2-3 weeks for sure. I'm standing by my January prediction.
I know this has been said before (because I've said it), but the only time we had enough serious buying to cause a sustained uptrend was when we were getting regular production numbers. Whether there is a direct cause and effect is debatable, I suppose, but the correlation isn't.
IMO, a large portion of the possible investors in a pink like HMGP are not going to be serious 'longs' (the kind that hold their shares through a 90% loss in value). It is a different segment of investors we have seen a small increase in this past week. This would include the flippers up through the medium to long term fair weather investors. However, I don't think we will see the mass return of those investors until there is the kind of hard evidence of current performance.
I'm not discounting the good things currently going on, but they simply aren't good enough for a lot of the money out there, IMO. Consequently, I don't think the share price is going to go anywhere until we see things like the updated reserve report or updated production numbers that include a few months with the new wells. I think the earliest we would see something like that is a month or two after the current drilling season ends. At this point I personally would just as soon wait for those numbers to include the new wells, but that could be January for all we know.
Of course, there are other things that could come sooner, like news about a ND deal or confirmation of insurance claims being reimbursed. There are always a lot of variables. However, basically it comes down to the familiar refrain of things taking time.
Personally, I wouldn't blame a lot of investors for wanting to wait for some confirmation. The new well 'sounds' great, but so did the last two at the time and they didn't lead anywhere. However, you can also get quickly left behind wishing you had bought earlier. That just the nature of the beast.
I totally understand and agree with what you are saying here. However, it is the sheer amount of shares that may have been used this way over the past year that I take exception with.
Especially, when it is done the way Keith does it with no follow up. Even years after the shares are used and the leases secured he refuses to give us a clear idea of Hemi's holdings in SEK. It doesn't have to be comprehensive or even current. A year ago they said they were wrapping up their leasing program in SEK and would let us know soon what they'd acquired. To date? Nada. An updated reserve report will change that. I'll wait a while, but I'm not holding my breath.
As for recent share expenditures, well obviously they weren't really done in SEK after all and that is a good thing. If they are onto something hot and need to use shares to get it, I can go along with that. However, it would be nice eventually to find out some specifics.
Not that I don't completely agree that there is something fishy about a 'cash flow positive' company that needs to increase it's O/S 6-7% every few months during a time when it's share price is supposedly extremely undervalued. IMO that's criminal.
I see why you would say that, but let me explain in more detail. The large downward push doesn't occur on a low volume day, but usually follows many low volume days. The downward plunge is usually itself relatively high volume day, but doesn't always have to be. The AH form T trades themselves are always in proportion to the days volume, though.
When the price is leveling out, the bollies tightening signaling a move and the volume has been low showing no interest they pounce and push everything down. It has happened many many times like clock work.
Based on what I have observed, the current objective of the algorithm which is selling these shares is to bring the share price down. It deliberately takes advantages of weakness in the chart to push the share price to new lows as well as suppress runs for a day or two after good news, IMO. Consequently, I don't think it is simply a matter of KAA dumping shares and hiding behind a gagged TA, even indirectly.
However, what I do see is the shorter winning. With significant increases in the O/S over the past year or more, this just validates the shorter's strategy. More and more shares get used at a lower and lower value. Restricted or unrestricted means nothing to them, they can wait out the year or two easily. In fact, restricted shares could work to their benefit forcing the shareholder to wait to sell until the share price has been pushed much lower. Then they can buy them at much cheaper prices if they ever even need to. However this is just basic procedure for naked shorting, not worth expounding on.
In my mind the real question is not whether or not we are being manipulated, but whether or not HMGP can do anything about it. I don't think that is easily answered. Certainly up to this point we know what the answer is. There have been much bigger fish than Hemi taken down by these guys as well. Sadly, in the face of this, KAA has shown nothing but weakness back to those who manipulate his company. They lower the share price, he keeps issuing shares. He puts out PRs talking about 'BIG' things and they see no follow up, no interest from the market. This is a clear invitation to continue what they are doing.
Some folks are saying that is going to change SOON. I just can't help but wonder if come December we'll be sitting here exactly where we are or lower knowing little more than we do now. KAA has shown a distinct pattern of not releasing public information that would help to valuate Hemi. This has been going on for a long time.
We've drilled wells before to little effect. Sure, these new wells are 'different' and special this time. I've heard just about every excuse I can imagine over the past 18 months after the fact as to why nothing has changed. Come December will we be hearing more? I am not saying we will, but I can tell you it sure as heck wouldn't surprise me if we close the year out at lower than we are now.
I sure hope to get proved wrong this week. If I am not, we are going to hear more about 'waiting for the buyout', IMO. In my mind that equates to waiting around blindly for years to find out what assets we really have and what they are really worth and what they are really producing.
Come on KAA, prove me wrong. Tell us something that will actually make enough people want to buy your stock that the shorts will reconsider their position.
This is how I see it happening with a group like AUTO. Someone comes to them and says they want to sell a large block of shares. They agree to let AUTO sell them using their algo trading systems which AUTO can setup to sell a certain number of shares in a certain period of time. This is the business AUTO is in or at least part of what they do.
I don't know if the following is exactly what happens, it is largely speculation, but it seems to fit most of what I have read from various sources...
So AUTO sells a bunch of shares during the day as legitimate looking trades and come end of day they 'buy' those shares from their client at a predetermined discount as one lump transaction, which we see as the form T trade. That is why they are usually always lower than the normal trading range for the day and how AUTO gets paid for their services. So that accounting trade at the end of the day is the one folks are saying is not a 'real trade'. However the shares dumped during the day are the ones that end up suppressing the share price.
Similar 'not real' trades happen quite often on certain days. Frequently we see lots of 'mirror' trades go through where every trade amount is posted twice at two different prices as if the sell to you and the buy from someone else were being posted separately. I have no idea why they choose to post them like that on some days and not on others. Perhaps it depends on whether or not the buyer and seller are using the same broker or more likely they do it to suite their own agenda. (It seems to me we see more of this when we are 'free trading' and not being dumped on by an MM.) Anyway, I don't think mirror trades are the same as what happens with AUTO, just another example of double posting what is really a single transaction.
So, some here are trying to imply that it is Hemi that is ultimately providing these shares to AUTO. Others, like BigMur, are saying that some other entity is having AUTO do this for them and aren't really providing them any shares, but rather 'air shares' are being used which classifies it as naked shorting.
IMO, from what I have seen over the past few years in the penny market is that both scenarios play out continuously across the pinksheets. It is really as ugly as the conspiracy theorists say it is. On the other hand most of the bad guys on the pinksheets are the CEOs themselves. So you either have the MMs doing it or the CEO doing it and the share price ends up in the toilet. Not only that, but places like AUTO can just as easily adjust their algorithms not to get the most money for the shares, but to deliberately bring down the share price. Fun, huh?
So which is it with Hemi? Well Keith adamantly denies it is the company. The opinions on the board are abundant and don't need re-iterating by me. I just wanted to clarify a little why many don't consider the AH trades a 'real trade'. If anyone has more insight on the AUTO's exact M.O. I'd love to hear about it.
Haven't others said that it has already been filed? Certainly it took some time to get the AF, assuming it happened, but either they've filed or there is a lot of FUD going around.
I am now thinking more along the lines that these guys got halted for a valid reason that we don't know much about. I'm no longer expecting anything to happen here.
Credibility? After 6 months of saying HMGP isn't using unrestricted shares and that they are cash flow positive and whatever else that is supposed to imply?
Now, we find out they have dumped over a million free-trading shares and you claim you have credibility?!?!?!?
I simply have no further response to that if people can't see the obvious. Time to hit the beach.
Over a million free-trading shares issued since April?
Does this not pretty much validate what Badge has been saying for the past month or longer, at least about management's use of shares. Didn't someone else, just today, get thrashed for suggesting management said what they did in the previous PR about the market cap in order to raise money by selling shares?
I wonder what else Badge is right about. Scary thought.