I know this has been said before (because I've said it), but the only time we had enough serious buying to cause a sustained uptrend was when we were getting regular production numbers. Whether there is a direct cause and effect is debatable, I suppose, but the correlation isn't.
IMO, a large portion of the possible investors in a pink like HMGP are not going to be serious 'longs' (the kind that hold their shares through a 90% loss in value). It is a different segment of investors we have seen a small increase in this past week. This would include the flippers up through the medium to long term fair weather investors. However, I don't think we will see the mass return of those investors until there is the kind of hard evidence of current performance.
I'm not discounting the good things currently going on, but they simply aren't good enough for a lot of the money out there, IMO. Consequently, I don't think the share price is going to go anywhere until we see things like the updated reserve report or updated production numbers that include a few months with the new wells. I think the earliest we would see something like that is a month or two after the current drilling season ends. At this point I personally would just as soon wait for those numbers to include the new wells, but that could be January for all we know.
Of course, there are other things that could come sooner, like news about a ND deal or confirmation of insurance claims being reimbursed. There are always a lot of variables. However, basically it comes down to the familiar refrain of things taking time.
Personally, I wouldn't blame a lot of investors for wanting to wait for some confirmation. The new well 'sounds' great, but so did the last two at the time and they didn't lead anywhere. However, you can also get quickly left behind wishing you had bought earlier. That just the nature of the beast.
