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No, it will be on the next rev.
Regards
Congrats!
I tried to make that point over on the UOPIX board for years and most never got it!!
Regards,
Leap
Where is Darvas, Darvas?
Done!
Hello Mark,
I think that a good place to start would be to chronologically list all the modifications that you have made or are contemplating with a brief description.
For example: Using MACD; some may interpret the crossover as a sign to stop AIMing and others as a time to liquidate.
Covering these type of topics would eliminate confusion and prevent rehash on your board.
Leap
Hello Mark,
I think that a good place to start would be to chronologically list all the modifications that you have made or are contemplating with a brieg description.
For example: Using MACD some may interpret the crossover as a sign to stop AIMing and others as a time to liquidate.
Covering this topics would eliminate confusions and prevent rehash on your board.
Leap
Mark,
I think that this is the best post I have ever read regarding AIM and it's variants. You are to be commended, indeed.
It would be helpful to keep us advised of the length of the fast and slow EMA's. Updating the header would be beneficial as well.
Interesting..which brings back the old discussion of should we be using derivititives in AIM? Want to own sell a naked put, what to sell, write a naked call. The premium is your friend!
Or better yet, average down with LEAPS.....
Regards,
Leap
You are a sharp dude!
That is what puzzles me. I cannot come up with a workable algorithm.
Oh well....
In devising a mechanical method we have to be objective about its performance. Karel mentioned that Lichello stated to stick to Blue Chips. What would you have called Lucent or Xerox a couple of years back...chopped liver??
In fact, we agree! The system needs to be overridden. As you know, being a fellow engineer, if we have to manually intervene in a feedback loop it is not stable. Therefore, it is my contention that AIM is a money management scheme that needs to be incorporated into an overall trading plan.
Leap
P.S. This is much easier saud than done! I sure have not figured it out!!
I understnad your point but disagree. AIM does not provide for your proposition. If you follow Mr. Lichello, you will average down to obvillion and beyond!*
Leap
*Buzzlightyear Paraphrased
Very Interesting stuff Warren! However, how are you addressing the fundamental flaw, the dreaded deep diver!
If you are relying on the idiot wave, then I suggest that you superimpose your tradeable over it. It is a great guide of overall sentiment, but I would now use it as a regualting mechanism, let alone an on/off switch.
Regards,
Leap
Thanks, great idea!
It is lonely here....
Congratulations for being the first post on this board!
Do you have any feel or interest in the Darvas method?
Regards,
Leap
Tom,
You are a true gentleman.
Leap
Hello Conrad!
GREAT, now you get it!! And you are correct, asymetrical would be a better term.
This was a fleeting thought, I did not burn many ergs on it.
My only point was that it addresses one of the drawbacks of AIM; averaging down to zero.
If you would like to discuss this offline, let me know.
Regards,
Leap
P.S. I have not been able to locate the english version of your book.
Tom,
I think that the PIC was a stroke of genius!
Regards,
Leap (Died in the wool contrarian)
Hello Conrad,
When will your book be available in English?
Hello Tom,
Too bad we can't reconstruct your graph of CSCO with the Timliness rankings superimposed. I bet there is an inverse correlation! This stems from the fact that VL's statistcal model relies heavily on price action!
Regards,
Leap
P.S. My wife is a Hillsdale Alumnus; nice small town atmosphere, interesting tradition as well.
If you keep this up I am going to have to buy your software!
Your taste in music is superb. I guess we are about the same age!
Bummer re: the Beatles.
Regards,
Leap
P.S. My daughter was born 3 short week ago. Name: Abigail Rhode.......
I want that ring!
I enjoy our discourse!!
Regards,
Harlan
Hello Conrad,
I agree that selling the entire batch would be the way to go (ideally). I was talking in terms of a mechanical hands off approach.
I do, however, disagree with your assertion re: MIA. I do not want to belabor the point (mostly becuase I do not have the time to run any simulations). Let's just say that the buying and selling does not have to be linear and leave it at that for now.
Regards,
Harlan
Hello Mark,
For the most part we are in agreement. I do not buy your probability assertion. If we were to go back in time let's say to 1964 when the Beatle's landed at JFK on a PAN AM jet, what probability do you think the long term investor would have assigned to the now bankrupt PAN-AM.
In my mind this risk is mitigigated through the use of index funds.
Maybe I should be Aiming treasury derivities!
Regards,
Leap
Hello Mark,
Sure, timeframe plays a part. However, it is not the driving factor. It is my sincere belief that due diligence is akin to the fountain of youth. Search as you might, it will never be found. The game is rigged. If anyone on this board believes that Lucent would have been considered a risky investment just a few short years ago, they are only kidding themselves. Now, I certainly will grant you that there are many savvy investors on the board who may have read the tea leaves correctly, but they are few and far between.
One other thing that occasionally gets lost in our discussions. The tax penality that should be added to all copmparisions of AIM vs. buy and hold. 20% FIFO is great for us AIMers, great for Uncle Sam as well.
Regards,
Leap
Hello Conrad,
Actually, you do sell SOME shares at the bottom as well as the top. Interestingly enough, the deep diver situation resolves itself as you are sold out well before rock bottom and have money left over for another day.
It is really a balancing act, you vanquish your load gradually on the way up with AIM and gradually on the way down with contra-AIM.
I will have to think some more about this concept and welcome any comments.
Regards,
Leap
I was rifiling thru my book collection this weekend and stumbled across J.Scwagger's Market Wizards.
Personally, I don't have the stomach for faced paced trading but it has always facinated me.
One of idea that is reinforced throughout the book is the mantra of never adding to a losing position.
I then remembered the old 60 Minutes interview w/Harry Reasoner. He talked to a professional gambler (Horse racing). Spent a week with him if I recall. Anyhow, when queiried on the secret of his success, his answer was simple...bet more on the winners than the losers.
I then remember an Engineering professor who claimed to have worked his way thrru grad school playing blackjack. There were many after class discussions of the Kelly Criterion as applied to optimal wagering.
All of this thinking (besides giving me a headache) led me down a road less traveled.
Perhaps, we are all looking through the rearview mirror. Trying to optimize an algorithm rather than seeking an optimal algorithm.
Maybe we should be looking at the reciprical of AIM? Buy on the way up, sell on the way down.
Food for thought.
Leap
Can I make a suggestion?
Maybe all the acronyms/ can be summarized in the header. This would save valuable time and prehaps prevents regurgitation of similiar ideas.
Just a thought,
Leap
Thanks for the kind words, Conrad.
It is the bain of the Engineer; we can never leave well enough alone!
Regards,
Leap
Hello Tom,
I can assure you, that searching for an optimal pair of MA's is like searching for the Holy Grail. They do not exist; across all sectors and times. The key to making this strategy work is not optimizing any of the variables, as that will surely lead downthe road of ruin. The market is a skillfull beast.
IMO the key is adapting the MA's (or whatever tool one chooses) to the market. There should be no need to make seat of the pants decisions. This defeats the simplicity of Lichello's approach.
Regards,
Leap
Hello Don,
Somewhere back in the day I posted a commentt on MA's and AIM back on the SI board. I was soundly trounced for such a denunciation. I am glad this board is more tolerant of different views. Todd R. had discussed his experience with MACD while I focused on the slope of the equity line.
Myst took some of my ideas forward but they essentially fell upon deaf ears.
There has been a great deal of discussion regarding AIM and the absense of a breaking mechanism. Another problem, not as frequently addressed is the concept of a fixed time interval. The market is dynamic and so should AIM. By this I mean that the market should dicatate if the update is Daily, Weekly or Monthly.
I would not agree that Stochastics have no lag as there is inherent lag in any given lookback period. Now that can be reduced by using Stochastic Momentum, but I digress.
Anyway, interesting stuff. Hopefully some of it will make it into your software.
Regards,
Leap
Hello Tom,
I am sure that this has been covered before, but do you know why Penguin books has issued a third edition? Is it updated, or mostly rehash.
If you could refer me to the message number that would be great.
Thanks!
Hello Tom,
I am sure that this has been covered before, but do you know why Penguin books has issued a third edition? Is it updated, or mostly rehash.
No need to respond if you could refer me to the message number.
Thanks!
This was discussed at great lengths back on the SI board.
Remember, there is no perpetual motion machine out there that I am aware of.
However, it is possible to AIM these funds successfully, just not by the book.
By the way, the expenses and compounding are secondary effects relative to market action.
Which all points to the inherent weakness of AIM. It has no brakes. But it is like coffee; once your're hooked, it's hard to give up!
Hey Myst,
Remember me? Impressive program; congratulations. I will have to dig into it deeper when I can, but it appears to be doing the job.
Ever thought of making the bands adaptive thereby alleviating the need for the user to make eyeball judgements?
Take care!!
Leap
I am still here hibernating!
Hello Bob. I remember you from the SI UOPIX board, what have you been up to? Looks like Tom has started up a thread of his own here which is great for the AIMer's out there. I was hoping to stir some interesting conversation but there were no takers. Have not heard from Todd in awhile, maybe I should drop him a note.
Leap
P.S. SI dumped my membership when I quit IQ charts.
Back soon guys! Been trading remotely. Down 2.5% YTD. Dumb mistakes on my part. Still learning!
Been away on business just returned. Well, called the direction by the time premium and spread hurt. Bought some qqq's (putski) with only a few pennies spread. Sold just minutes ago for a quick profit. Down i/2 a point on all option trading this year.
Hope to participate soon.
L
The only good luck was recouping half my investment so I live to play another day.
Should have taken a quciker profit. However, I do not have the luxury of sitting at the screen all day.
I own NAZ callls right now waitng for the bounce which may happen into options expiration. Theory is that they sucker in the Puts and then pull the cord. As soon as the tide turns the market goes south.
The market will do whatever it can to frustrate the majority of players, that you can bank on!
Good luck!