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You've definitely been consistent...but intrinsic value has a real definition while your term 'actual value' seems like it would mean the value someone would place on it. But I can't tell whether you're defining 'actual value' in a non-intuitive way or whether you really believe Sharp's and Sapi's warrants literally have zero value right now since they're currently out of the money.
Obviously, the Humbl $0.20 strike warrants currently have real, discernible value even though they're out of the money and even though they can't be traded. There's a chance Brian and George could pump Humbl stock back up to $0.30 for example, and ka-ching, Sharp and Sapi would again see money rolling into their own pockets through exercising the warrants and selling the shares, pending any additionally needed registration or exemption of course.
As I said, Zacks meant intrinsic value, or they meant at expiration when the time value is zero so intrinsic value then equals the actual value of the warrant. Zacks could have worded that better.
I'm not sure why you didn't answer my question as it really cuts to the crux of the issue. Would you buy the hypothetical aforementioned warrants from Humbl for $10...or would you deem the untradeable warrants as having no value whatsoever since they're out of the money?
Again, hypothetical offer:
Humbl's stock price is at $0.16.
Humbl offers you 125,000,000 warrants
Cannot be sold or traded
$0.20 strike price.
December 2022 expiration
Total cost for all of the warrants is only $10.
Do you take the offer (you see value in the warrants) or do you decline the offer (you see zero value in the warrants)?
"They are essentially saying that the “intrinsic value” is the market price minus the strike price."
Sure...at expiration.
Yes, it's getting ridiculous, but I do want to see this through. You usually are on the mark with most of your posts but I'm confused at your doggedly holding onto the idea that the $0.20 strike warrants are currently worthless OTM since they're not tradeable. Maybe I'm the one who is off base.
Tell me this--with Humbl's stock currently at $0.16 and if Humbl offered you 125 million non-tradeable warrants with a strike of $0.20 and expiring in December, for the total price of $10, would you buy them or would you deem them worthless so you would turn down the offer? It's a simple question and your answer will determine whether we're having a problem of concept or a problem of definition. Obviously, I would happily take such an offer and I may be more bearish on Humbl than you are. Would you take such an offer?
If you read that paragraph by Zacks in the link which you posted, they are talking about intrinsic value in the first five sentences. Their last two sentences were poorly worded, bordering on being incorrect. They should have said 'at expiration' or something similar.
I'm sure we're on the same page. I'm sure, for example, you would happily pay Humbl a total of $100 in exchange for 125 million non-tradeable warrants with a strike of $0.20 expiring in December, even though Humbl shares are trading OTM at $0.16 now. If you wouldn't then we're definitely not on the same page. If you would then we can drop this and chalk it up to miscommunication.
Excuse me? Are you suggesting I'm confused?
You're saying that a warrant which is out of the money, has no actual value just because it can't be traded. Does a stock have zero value if it can't be traded? Does the DCF model of valuing a stock go out the window if a stock can't be traded? Does Black-Scholes go out the window when a warrant can't be traded?
What exactly do you think happens to a security when it can't be traded?
Yes. I do see what you're saying but, technically, I'll have to agree with NoMoDo on that argument. Even without trading, those warrants still have some value even if there's no intrinsic value.
If you're defining "actual value" as intrinsic value then I agree with you, but it sounds like NoMoDo was defining actual value as the, well, actual value. I saw the back and forth with you and him on that. Maybe you both had different definitions in mind and maybe both of you are right but had a miscommunication.
I know what you're saying. The warrants have no intrinsic value left since they're below the $0.20 strike price. But there's still the time value which has some value because, as you mentioned, there's a chance the warrants could end up in the money. That seemed to be the primary disagreement between you and NoMoDo before.
"Curious…what is the actual value of a non-tradeable warrant that is out of the money?"
Technically, the warrants are worth the same value as if the warrants were fully tradeable. Black-Scholes on a highly volatile stock with almost a year to go before expiration. I'm just thumbing a number, but I would guess they would trade at eight to ten cents if they were trading.
That said, and as I said before, George has been converting. That means he thinks the market has priced Humbl shares way too high and he wants out despite the remaining time value on the warrants. I think he's correct.
I feel you're correct on the warrants still having value.
Be careful with FORW. I don't trust George Sharp at all. I don't think FORW shareholders will ultimately benefit from money coming in from Humbl share sales.
Also, George didn't say he would hold his HMBL shares. He said he had no intention of disposing of any stock at depreciated values. That's a subtle difference expressed by a man (George) who may not be entirely honest. As I said before, George wouldn't be exercising warrants a year before they expire unless he intended to sell the shares immediately. I don't trust George.
I read this debate and I see NoMoDo is getting beaten up but he's technically right. George Sharp's warrants still do have value even out of the money and even though they're not tradeable.
That also speaks to why George was exercising his warrants early rather than waiting until near the warrant expiration of Dec 3, 2022. George was exercising well before expiration only because he wanted to sell his shares. Otherwise why take on extra risk of owning the shares? So maybe a person could say that George doesn't value the remaining time value of his warrants more than he values getting the cash now because he doesn't have very much confidence in Humbl's future.
I'm not sure. If a company's real business is selling shares to investors, maybe shares can be considered to be inventory.
Selling shares can be a very profitable business for those printing the shares, at least much more profitable than Humbl trying to make money from an app.
The stock is still slowly descending. I wish I had been brave enough to go really big shorting HMBL back when I did. The two million percent rise from the bottom to the top spooked me into only taking a moderately sized short position. Still, a gain is a gain and I can't complain.
I would lean toward saying George was lying as well. As you said, he would have known. Additionally, George is not an honest man--he has a history of dishonesty.
I can verify that the reverse split didn't force any shorts to cover as George said. I was short through the reverse split and I didn't have any issue staying short.
I don't know if George was lying or if he was only uninformed but he seems smart enough to know the mechanics of a reverse split.
Of course it isn't. Humbl is a diamond in the rough, but not like all of those other diamonds in the rough companies out there. Humbl is a unicorn, but not like all of those other unicorns.
I don't know there are thousands of stock message boards for different companies, all with shareholders gushing over the prospects of their respective penny stock company when they should instead be over here gushing about Humbl's prospects. It just doesn't make sense.
Almost every single stock on the OTC has been labeled as the next Apple, Paypal or Amazon. HMBL is no different.
And eventually almost every single one of those stocks will have excuses about why it's taking much longer than initially thought because "Rome wasn't built in a day." But that's always good because it gives investors the opportunity to average down at "fire sale prices." HMBL is in the early stages of that.
HMBL isn't holding up too well and the volume is lower than it was a week or two ago. If George is selling, he's not selling as much as last time. I think shareholders themselves are driving today's decline.
Maybe George has a plan but it seems like he should be tweeting like a bird right now, trying to get the trading volume up. I wouldn't be surprised if each of George's tweets were worth an extra $20k in profit toward his warrant exercises and share sales.
Is Humbl aligned with the same Nick Carter from the Backstreet Boys?? If so, maybe Nick just can't stay away from scammers!
Lou Pearlman, who started the Backstreet Boys, was a fraudster and was even featured on American Greed.
"Before long, [Lou Pearlman] had the makings of Backstreet Boys. Nick Carter, AJ McLean and Howie Dorough auditioned."
And now Brian is using Nick Carter to promote Humbl. With a little luck, Brian and George will make it on American Greed as well.
It would make sense that George is shorting stock to lock in a price ahead of exercising warrants.
George can watch the series B snatch all the cash from willing investors starting with the effectiveness of the S-1 or with Brian giving authorization, or he can exercise those warrants. I doubt George will leave several million dollars on the table by not exercising.
Humbl should have an extra $40 million or so from the remaining warrant exercises.
My experience is also that if there's a penny stock with heavy trading volume, getting new cash isn't a problem. It's only once trading dries up that the money dries up with it.
Brian would have to find someone willing to give up a whole lot of value to current HMBL investors in order to get HMBL up to the initial $4 price needed for the NASDAQ. I don't know anyone who wants to gift others any value, let alone the tens of billions of dollars of value which would be needed.
I remember that 'need to get the app working first' story from almost a year ago.
The stock is bouncing around all over the place.
Volume doesn't seem that high so either George backed off selling shares or he tried selling and was met with weak resistance. He's going to have to pump up the stock if he wants to maximize the amount he fleeces from shareholders.
Average downers, muster your strength and get more dry powder wherever you can. George's profits depend on you.
To be fair, there are likely some holders of the series B who really believe the stock is worth more and won't sell even if they could.
But almost certainly there are many series B holders who want to take advantage of their windfall but will have to wait until their shares become registered.
HMBL is still not OTCQB despite filing the paperwork. I want to know if they paid the fee. What's holding up advancement to the OTCQB??
Since George said he would be surprised if HMBL weren't on the OTCQB by the end of November even though HMBL hadn't filed any paperwork, is he still surprised here in January??
Does the problem lie with the shepherd or did the shepherd lie about the problem??
Nov 19, 2021 press release, "Mr. Sharp will shepherd HUMBL through an imminent application with OTC Markets for an advancement to the OTCQB tier..."
George is smart. Put out a tweet suggesting that year end tax selling is the reason for the drop and then back off selling in the first day or so of the new year. That way shareholders get two points of validation to convince themselves that year end tax selling was the problem and not George dumping shares.
Good bump up to $0.329. Did George and Louis stop exercising and selling??
You should be careful with that DDAmanda program you mentioned. There was some crooked penny stock pump and dump personality from years ago named Hans Brost who seems to have created DDAmanda. The program might be used to harvest investor information or some other bad reasons.
I know what you're saying but Brain specifically referenced the annual report which would generally be months away. Last year was April 14th. It's a little odd.
"Our legal team has advised that it is best to provide our HUMBL Annual Report and CY '22 roadmap updates only after the end of the quiet period."
- Brian Foote
Is Brian talking about a quiet period based on the S-1 or based on filing the annual report?? Both seem equally likely and unlikely at the same time.
Absolutely it could be 100% short volume and no short interest created for the day (other than for a fraction of time). We'll have to disagree on the rest. I believe there's some amount of informational value in the short volume.
It's like if you walk into a mall and you see five times as many people in the mall as usual. I would infer that sales went up for the stores. But you would also be correct in saying that it's possible that sales were zero and that all the people in the mall were all there just to return merchandise.
I'll have to disagree with you on that. There's some correlation. I'm certainly not saying it's 1:1, but there's some informational value in the short volume. For instance, if daily short volume was zero, you can be certain that the short interest dropped that day or at least stayed the same.
Short volume is shares which were sold short. That could be sold to people who will stay short for a year, for a day or sold just long enough to facilitate a transaction.
Short interest is a snapshot twice a month of how many shares are in actual short positions at that time.
Statistically, there's probably a reasonable way to roughly estimate short interest by using the last period's short interest and the daily short volumes. If you can use daily short volume to come up with a good estimate of how many people sold short and how many people covered their short, you probably have a reasonable number of the actual short interest.
It's definitely the last day for loading up with 'cheap' shares for the rest of the year.
Looks like the warrant $0.20 strike rebound effect. HMBL rebounded a bit up to $0.24. Any higher and I assume George will swoop back in.
Did Brian pay the fee to OTC Markets to upgrade to the OTCQB tier or not??
Since George was somehow surprised that HMBL didn't make it on the OTCQB in November even though he knew Humbl didn't file the necessary paperwork, is he doubly surprised now that HMBL still isn't on the OTCQB now that the paperwork is filed??
HMBL might get a 20x pop soon which will surprise everyone.
Then later that day George will announce that he secretly did a 1-for-20 reverse split and decided not to tell anyone in advance because he didn't want to create a "mass panic" and because he wanted to "save shareholders from themselves."
Right now George Sharp and Louis Sapi are exercising their $0.20 warrants and selling shares. Together they had 250,000,000 warrants for shares and they've been able to hedge/short maybe 20% of that. As long as HMBL stays above $0.20, they will likely be active in selling shares.
Good luck on your position. You might get a bounce. I've been wondering whether or not HMBL will get a good bounce in the stock price.
I believe the market is open for the full day tomorrow.