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Yeah, I was wondering where $35 was. Guess we'll have to just wait for sales then. But of course, everyone got in a $0.50 so they don't care.
So it appears your website defines public float as SO-tutes-insiders = public float. Then you have the shorts / public float as your stat. That's BS! The tutes are the primary shorting (and usually primary long) entity out there and they are excluded from your calculation. I could give you 5 stocks I follow where the tutes own near or > 100% of 'float' for public float would be < 0(or undefined); so is that a universally good thing. Sometimes it is and sometimes it isn't.
You're wrong by normal definitions. Perhaps you made up some new class or definition of shares?. While we could debate the exact source and argue over +/- a couple M, float is not 150M. Float is 310M. SO is about 358M.
The MMs screw with the bid/ask frequently. Also being non market hours makes the quotes unreliable. I personally don't pay attention to their quotes as the flip wildly sometimes. JMO
1/3 of float short, another loose "incorrect" fact. Is 1/6th still high but not 1/3.
As opposed to some uber bulls here saying something to effect of, label is not too important bcs off label rxs or co guide for 2020 is just sandbagging. I believe the streching and loose opinions might occur on both sides.
Official exercise iirc is Saturday based on Fridays closing.
you're right from what I see, he did not indicate # of shs.
Dead end.
Not sure it really matters, however. He lost!
if you know his entry roughly, you can calculate it or get pretty close, given he said his closing trade and his % AUM loss.
Gray areas are not allowed here are they; only black or white; you're with us or against type of thing.
I hope we get a pop as most expect, and we might. However, I see it (assumed broad label expansion) more like a muted response to burn many of those 62M calls as possible and then over time a SP increase as the valuation norms (and rev increases) start to play and as the shorts and calls settle out.
1) 5-10 P/S; faster growth is worth more, VRTX is 14. 20 is quite rich. It may stay at 20 +/- for some time, but not forever; as it gets some stability, it likely will moderate.
2) bcs I think with the rev growth the downside is limited. However, I'd believe the SP will grow, just not to the moon and just not as fast as many here say.
Ha, I thought my audience was probably just 1; myself.
Hopefully, you're 1 of the 6-7 figure ppl. GL
So what I think is not that important. My money (for those that still will call me short) is on continued rev growth, SP will grow 'slowly' as rev materializes bcs it's already at a P/S of 20 so it's not cheap. It will take 1-2 years of 100% growth to catch up to a normal bio valuation. So that means over 1-2-3+ years, not at PDUFA or trial success. They might get BO or maybe not, who knows. Either way, they are threatening the status quo and so they will have targets on their backs for some time, so I expect lots of SP + and -.
Tutes(institutions: hedge funds, money managers, etc)) the last 13F held 11M call shs and 11M put shs; public info. As of this am, the total OI is below: that's 62.4M call shs and 18.7M put shs. So 'retail' has 51M call shs and 7M put shs approximately. That's a lot of nonhedged enthusiasm (or binary bets) where tutes don't share the same enthusiasm.
I wish all those GL, even those that want to hate contrary opinions.
***All Expires Pivot Table*** THESE ARE CONTRACTS SO X100 TO GET SHS
Type call put All
Expire
2019-12-06 00:00:00 26038 24877 50,915
2019-12-13 00:00:00 8834 7938 16,772
2019-12-20 00:00:00 113300 45031 158,331
2019-12-27 00:00:00 9877 4410 14,287
2020-01-03 00:00:00 3258 564 3,822
2020-01-10 00:00:00 24 0 24
2020-01-17 00:00:00 316668 64076 380,744
2020-02-21 00:00:00 14327 11770 26,097
2020-03-20 00:00:00 44580 8945 53,525
2020-06-19 00:00:00 17137 5188 22,325
2021-01-15 00:00:00 65845 11709 77,554
2022-01-21 00:00:00 4648 2341 6,989
All 624536 186849 811,385
Maybe, I've been there and it's easy to get caught up in the hoopla. The situation of betting HUGE and loosing on an unforeseen event has occurred to me; it is painful.
I suspect it will be successful, but insurance companies, PFE (or another potential acquirer), or DS industry are not going to just roll over and give JT 20-30B just bcs its a great drug.
I personally expect a slog over the next 2 years or so. It is not a cheap stock by normal metrics, so it will take time to grow into its valuation IMO.
I don't know, that's why I don't want to take the simple arguments that its been discussed or get caught into the whirlwind bullishness of $40/hs or 50B MC, bcs its just a great drug right, obvious to see.
My money is at stake and I prefer to be a bit more skeptical and cautious.
So the secondary was in late July; Likely the lockup period is over, but I did not find any reference the actual date in the 425.
Oh and the secondary holders that got in at 18 or so; which surprised so many. I don't know when the lockup ends on that but should be soon. I have no clue if they are looking to exit, but who knows? Anyway, several competing forces converging at PDUFA, not all believing in peaches and cream for breakfast.
Not addressed to you specifically; just in the train with Booze's situation.
Am I attacking someone? I don't believe that's in there!
I don't know the science and don't care to. I have seen repeatedly stocks with out-sized OI and outsized shorts not react has most die-hards expected.
48M shorts, perhaps less now; 10M call shs in Dec, 30M call shs in Jan; 50M total call shs and 20M total put shs. Could it run to 40(a double) or 100(5x) or whatever on an assumed broad label expansion, sure! However, when the calls (and shorts) are so large, sharp moves are generally muted or very short-lived. IMO I would expect a grind up over time, not a sharp move up; and prepare my expectations for that. JMO GL
Virtually no one person here, maybe 1 or 2 are even looking at the possible downside risks. Yes, I'm a newbie here (and long BTW) so you all can dismiss me and say I'm a short in disguise, or soft bash or whatever; however, I see $40/sh, $100/sh, etc like it is a foregone conclusion in the not too distant future. Suppose most are placing their investments accordingly; as Booze did(not trying to rub it in), and I've done before.
So perhaps V is great, the EPA DS competition is not a threat per most of you, bcs surely every person would want an RX vs a cheaper EPA DS. That is TBD IMO. Obviously some are buying EPA DS currently, despite your expert opinions that it's rancid, or not effective or ??.
How about the SP risk. We sit at a P/S of 20+, yes we are growing fast, but one scenario is all these options sellers(correctly per americanbull hold common to hedge their call bet) become sellers if they can burn those 10M call stocks for Dec and 30M for Jan. Those 48M shorts are a squeeze opportunity, but also a risk, maybe not bcs they know something, but bcs they are powerful and don't like to lose.
So I have no great insight other than the bullishness seems excessive, its possible something, not science, but something else is not being given ample weight. I hope for a quick run to 40, but I also know it's very possible the SP gyrates here as the revenues catch up the SP over the next 1-2 years. It's also possible competing forces mess with it; DS industry or say a suitor tries to ram it into the ground for a potential BO. GL
One learns quickly those that should be read and those that aren't worth the time. The magic of 38 (or was it 39) for example, not really worth 15 posts. But ppl got to spend their time somewhere.
20 seconds a post really? How about 2 seconds a post.
FWIW I have ~7M profit(about 0.02) which includes +9M on SGA, some increases on R&D and COGS.
Whether the scripts are the start of hockey stick growth or there is some interplay with Thanksgiving week (which will show in the next scripts update), I have no clue but I have the run rate at > 550M/yr.
The next report is Thanksgiving week. While it might be the start, it might also be docs accelerated scripts in prep for a very lite week.
Again, the no plants, only supply chain stuff doesn't carry any water for me.
Look at Rambus, they have nothing except their brains and previous patents created by using their brains: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rambus
The value (for AMRN) is in the patents, processes, supply chain, completed clinical trials, successful FDA approvals, relationships, etc.
All that costs money and has future value.
This issue to me is just made up drama. Perhaps it affects the SP, maybe not.
Animals are frequently used for beneficial 'compounds' if you will.
C&P: Horseshoe crabs' blue blood is so valuable that a quart of it can be sold for $15,000. This is because it contains a molecule that is crucial to the medical research community.
Me: Some of the more versatile new gene therapy vectors are derived from monkeys and other animals.
I suspect this is more a self-flagellation issue than anything else.
In this case, fish have an abundance of EPA. It helps us, so we use it. If in the future we may find a more efficient way of synthesizing it from plants or in some chemical plant, we will.
The last time I recall mastow was him spreading crap before the rylp bo. Imo he is a idiot with a megaphone.
A CVR that HAS to be given to AMRN in a BO for this to be started clinical trial.
Really!
Yes, and how many retail were selling a little bit before ADCOM? How many retail bought puts before ADCOM? How many tutes put 100% of their investment into AMRN just before ADCOM, not many.
Yes, I don't know either; but JT taking what is likely 100% of his wealth and 100% of his income and laying it 100% on the line with a generally incompetent FDA seems not a smart more to me.
Every time an exec sells in any company, the same retail stuff; how can they sell, the future is so bright. Many have most of their wealth, 100% of their income tied up in these companies and to hedge a bit before an uncertain outcome to me seems reasonable. JMO
please spare me!
JT has been thru the $hit with many of you guys, he has accumulated a ton of shares and options along the way. He did not know the ADCOM outcome nor the label months ago and is just covering his bases. Remind me what happened years ago with their at-bat with the FDA? Prudent is what I would call it.
How many way long investors took some off the table before ADCOM? I suspect several.
wrt pricing; we don't live on an island; I count 206 currently recruiting clinical trials treating hyperlipidemias. My experience in bio is innovation is coming at you at 100 MPH. Yes, most of those 206 will fail or not be approved for some reason, but some might.
Whether it's 4M or 40M potential population, they need to move and quick; hence the 800 sales ppl and possible EU collaboration. I personally hope they keep the price 'relatively' low to get as many on drug as quickly as possible.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=Hyperlipidemias&Search=Apply&recrs=b&recrs=a&recrs=d&age_v=&gndr=&type=&rslt=
No concerns with that in an IRA.
It gets a bit complicated with them:
The assessment leads to an opinion from the CHMP by day 210. Following a CHMP opinion, the European Commission takes usually its decision, a legally binding authorization, after 67 days.
Me: So its 210+67+clock stops for a normal review. Then after approval, one needs to go to each country to agree on pricing, adding more time to the process.
For a prime review:
Evaluating a marketing-authorization application under the centralized procedure can take up to 210 days, not counting clock stops when applicants have to provide additional information. On request, the CHMP can reduce the timeframe to 150 days if the applicant provides sufficient justification for an accelerated assessment.
Me: so under PRIME it 150+67+clock stops
How to request an accelerated assessment
Any request for accelerated assessment should be made at least two to three months before submitting the marketing-authorization application.
..
To see more..
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/marketing-authorisation/accelerated-assessment
Yes, I think a % conversion for RIt label and a different conversion for primary prevention is extremely likely.
Say existing label (4M) (existing statin users, high risk, known, etc) maybe 90% conversion.
RIt label (10M) (existing statin users, known, etc) maybe it's 50%.
Primary prevention indication (the 30M:40M-10M)) maybe it's 5%.
So if we say 318k(your #) or 423k(my guess); the potential is pretty large even with my agreement that the numbers are somewhat a shot in the dark. And of course these are US numbers, the ROW are just a complete guess to me.
Fair enough.
And the size of the Reduct It label is 10M. Correct me if wrong.
The primary prevention label is 40M-70M, again Correct me.
So anywhere from about ~3%-5% converted(of RIT label) currently as a rough guestimate?
Does anyone have an opinion (or better some real knowledge) of pts on V currently?
Rough math $550M run rate / ~1300 is 423k.
Does that make sense?
It takes the EU much longer than it should. 270 days plus liberal use of clock stops. 12 months would be a good expectation.
Thanks for trying to live-tweet. The FDA video feed is incredibly unreliable.
Thanks for live-tweeting when possible.
Many like me will be either traveling and/or working. If someone tweets as it goes along(perhaps not minute by minute, but highlights), it will be searchable and reviewable later.