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Yeah I agree, I think it’s too low here. But the upside, in my mind, has dropped 8-10 fold.
I would have been out 35-45 before. Now I’m thinking more like 7-10? Unfortunate but a reality. I’ve collected about $14 in premium per share selling calls, and had about 35% of my position called away above $20, so I’ve been very lucky in that respect. However, I obviously would have done a lot better with a $50 BO...which I’m assuming was never presented.
I really hope people on this board didn’t have a high % of their net worths in here, but my observation is too many retail investors get hurt on these moves.
I agree with you numbers, were almost trading below cash value if you include loss carry over. But we won’t be at a reasonable level going forward, I think we’ll be underpriced based on purely sentiment for a very long time. Good news is, I think we’re near the bottom...
When you invest, the only person you should be pissed at is yourself.
If you held this from $2 to $25 (which I did for the most part) and now own it at $4, how are you pissed at JT and co? Anyone who feels entitled to 2000%+ returns is insane. Stocks go up and down just as easily. Always smart to take some off the table or hedge if you’re uncomfortable losing it all with a highly volatile stock.
Amarin never had value, only potential value. When you invest on potential there are unlimited risks. You can be wrong on things you didn’t even think about. You can’t just invest in one aspect of a company or a drug, and that’s why investing is risky. But I can ensure you JT did not flop the stock on purpose, nor did anyone internally. There were risks, and it didn’t work out.
What is worth more in theory, a heart saving medication or a social platform to connect friends? Well if you guessed answer A, in this case you were very wrong (comparing FB to amarin). A lot of making money as a retail investor boils down to luck.
Hedge funds don’t beat the S&P 500 on average at all. The average investor or day trader does even worse.
https://www.hikma.com/newsroom/article-i4899-hikma-receives-favourable-court-ruling-for-its-generic-vascepa/
Where did they remove it from?
Stock dropped when judges were announced. I think people were looking for an immediate upside (if we got all 3 judges our way stock goes to $10+, otherwise they dump shares and lose $1). Amarin isn’t super liquid, so moves are usually over exaggerated. Don’t forget we got below $4 in April. My feeling is patience through Europe is probably the play. All they need is 2.5b to be $6 a share.
Nice one! Thanks for posting
Very backwards since this post. Why did you think it’s was going down from 3.5?
This is from July 1st I think
When do we expect the judges to be know again?
Ha this message was so misleading. We settled with someone who didn’t beat us in court
Not true. His price targets were assuming the trial went in amarins favor. Did you read his reports? He said $7 price target with 100% priced in amarin would win the law suit. Not sure how prophetic that is
He gets them basically no matter what (and as long as he leaves on good terms). I wonder if he ever saw $30+ BO offers and turned them down...would have cost him 200m personally. Ouch!
No, for sure a fund buying and hedging. And it’s not their whole position
If I’m paying attention at work I see most large option blocks, who’s doing them, etc. I don’t cover biotechs though so often I miss some, but today I got the color.
I can always get direction but sometimes don’t know who the counterparty is who’s trading the options
Seems cheap, especially if they bought for $4. All the upside, worst case 60% gain
By a fund hedging it’s position*
The puts were bought for $1 by a fund
As did the phenomenal results of the original study.
Main point was this only makes the appeal more important. It does add EU value, but it seems like EU value won’t really even creep into the price until later this year
This is kind of what we expected/a bit null given the IP decision. If this came out when we were soaring in the 20s that would have been great.
It adds a little value to our long term PPS, but really just adds more importance to the appeal
Crash up? Haha massive upside from here, expect some institutional buyers soon as well id assume. I bought this when it traded below cash, now holding for the potential!
Not sure if you understand how this stuff works. To buy or sell 16m shares, the stock will move $1+ at this point. This is way more important than your weird levels you trade on. Of course funds lose, but people often follow good funds for advice/ this is a big institutional owner who will hopefully help keep management honest.
Artisan is a really well respected fund. Everyone has losers. This is a very bullish sign imo
OT- would look into Cbay. Just had some great news and I think underpriced. Good for day traders and long term people as well. To think, I bought a bunch because it was trading below asset value for a few months...
Maybe they’re doing most work in house and that’s just the outsourcing costs?
You could have sold in the 8s too. You could have sold at any time. JT lost 200m personally from high to low in share price. Doubt he’s happy about that
Let’s get to 30!
Yes you do. You get anything you would get should you own the shares. They are interchangeable
Actually I was thinking airlines should just buy and fly the planes (empty). They get money to take/store oil! Haha
The oil future is CLK20 that expired today. It closed at $10, but traded down to -40 yesterday. You could have bought that and locked it buying crude at a negative value
If you bought futures on close yesterday, you would have been paid $37 a barrel to take delivery of oil in 7 days in Cushing Oklahoma if you didn’t sell out of your contract. The price to produce gas for cars, all in, would have been negative if you had the ability to take delivery and refine it (that cost is usually 12-15 a barrel for the big guys)
Well the issue is storage and transport are very regulated. It’s delivered in Cushing and you have to store it safely. The barrel don’t explode but they catch fire very easily. Also, each contract is 1000 barrels, or 42k gallons. Now if you had land in Oklahoma and a way to refine it...massive opportunity
I didn’t say you could/had to take delivery yesterday. But they expired today and you would have locked in receiving $36 a barrel to take delivery but buying a may future contract yesterday. Pretty sure I know this as I am trading them for work, but please explain again how that doesn’t work out?
What? If you buy a future you can get real oil. That made no sense. Yesterday you would have received $35 to take each barrel of oil.
I think we see 20 easily soon. And if trials come back good for other indications for the drug with JNJ, 40s by end of next year
Is it not 1/220?
3/12*2/11*1/10 would be the chances of getting 3/3 we want in a 12 judge panel. That’s 1/220 or less than 0.5%
Ah I see. Hopefully that’s the case
Haha no. Absolutely not
Wow that’s really good news! Is this real? Can you send the actual response?
Sorry yes that’s right. For some reason I was thinking 150m shares outstanding on that for some reason
I’m talking about ROW in EU numbers, and 800m carry forward adds maybe another $1-1.5 a share if you net present value it
He will say robust, I think he says it in his nightly dinner prayers